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T.Y. Hilton 2017 Season Outlook


FlashGordon401
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34 minutes ago, Most Guruist said:

If you toss the 99 yard game by Hoyer the pass defenses of Cleveland and Seattle look pretty samey statistically.  Seattle gave up a 55 yard td last week (and a 27).  I have him slotted to ride the bench in favor of Tate, Hill, and Sanders this week but I don't feel great about it.

 

Ehhh it's silly to imply that there isn't a big difference b/w Cleveland's D and Seattle's D based on a 3 game sample size. 

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9 minutes ago, Chwf3rd said:

 

Ehhh it's silly to imply that there isn't a big difference b/w Cleveland's D and Seattle's D based on a 3 game sample size. 

 

Sure....

 

Browns have thrown 8 ints this year Seattle 0.  Browns -5 t/o ratio Seattle +1.  The opposing offense's ability to sustain drives and hold onto the ball might be a bigger difference maker between this weekend and last.

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37 minutes ago, Most Guruist said:

 

Sure....

 

Browns have thrown 8 ints this year Seattle 0.  Browns -5 t/o ratio Seattle +1.  The opposing offense's ability to sustain drives and hold onto the ball might be a bigger difference maker between this weekend and last.

 

Are you really trying to argue that there isn't a big difference between the Browns D and Seattle's?

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13 minutes ago, Chwf3rd said:

 

Are you really trying to argue that there isn't a big difference between the Browns D and Seattle's?

 

Performance wise, yes.  Seattle hasn't done anything to signify that if Hilton can go off for ~150 and a score against the Browns that he can't do it against Seattle.  I'd even go on to say if Wilson throws 3 picks in the game there is a decent chance of it happening.  Both D's (Browns and Hawks) may be good but they aren't showing that they are unbeatable.

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31 minutes ago, Dead Money said:

It's between him and Crabtree for me this weekend. I'm going with TY.

 

The only reasoning behind this is the contrarian philosophy of everyone assumes this is a bad play so maybe he goes off instead

Gamblers fallacy. Not sure Hilton isn’t the better play than Crab but that’s not the right reasoning for it. Count me as someone still skeptical that TY is a reliable option—I would like to see him do it against a non-Browns opponent. But Seahawks pass D doesn’t seem as formidable as it used to be so there’s a chance he gets a couple burners. 

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10 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

Any confidence for ty going into week 5? Currently a flex option right now and am considering benching for D.Martin.

 

i just don't see how I can trust him without luck on the field

 

Treat him as a Flex option until Luck comes back.  Nice matchup at home vs SF though, I can see him having the sort of game he did vs Cleveland

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I've never owned either Luck or Hilton, and not really following the Colts in general. Is their connection for real? Matchup-proof set-and-forget WR1 (hey even Antonio has some duds), or is he more of a WR2 with some huge WR1 weeks sprinkled in?

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13 minutes ago, frog34 said:

I've never owned either Luck or Hilton, and not really following the Colts in general. Is their connection for real? Matchup-proof set-and-forget WR1 (hey even Antonio has some duds), or is he more of a WR2 with some huge WR1 weeks sprinkled in?

1 good week with a few duds on the season. Hiltons always been boom/bust but I would be more confident in the busts if Hilton had luck

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14 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

1 good week with a few duds on the season. Hiltons always been boom/bust but I would be more confident in the busts if Hilton had luck

 

So you say Hilton has no solid floor even with Luck? I could live with solid WR2 numbers when he has a few such weeks like 150/1 last week. Or is he more of a flex with those huge WR1 games? I think that role was owned by the 2016 Amari Cooper and Hilton is more of a weekly mid-low WR1 (with Luck of course).

Edited by frog34
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5 hours ago, bhawks489 said:

Any confidence for ty going into week 5? Currently a flex option right now and am considering benching for D.Martin.

 

i just don't see how I can trust him without luck on the field

 

I'd definitely go with The Muscle Hamster there but TY is a great bet to have a boom game against that suspect 49ers defense. Hilton is unbelievably fast and great at creating separation, plus it's  not like Brisett is that incompetent

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Any word on when Luck may touch the field again?

 

Is Hilton the kind of player that a playoff caliber fantasy team should trade for since Luck will likely be on the field down the stretch?

 

Its tough to figure out his value though, I was offered Hilton for CJ Anderson. Still sitting on it...

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2 hours ago, bgar15 said:

Any word on when Luck may touch the field again?

 

Is Hilton the kind of player that a playoff caliber fantasy team should trade for since Luck will likely be on the field down the stretch?

 

Its tough to figure out his value though, I was offered Hilton for CJ Anderson. Still sitting on it...

Even with the uncertainty re: Luck I still think there's an argument to be made that Hilton is a top-12 option at WR ROS. My experience has been that he's valued less than that, so if you can buy on the cheap I think you go for it. I would probably take Hilton for CJA depending on my RB situation.

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18 minutes ago, AnchorDown said:

 I still think there's an argument to be made that Hilton is a top-12 option at WR ROS. 

He's actually not that far off from where he was this time last year; only like ~50 yards less. I fully believe that if Brissett had started week 1 he would have had a good game considering how bad the Rams have been against the pass.

 

E: He's not getting double digit targets but he has been  more efficient so far: 64% catch rate vs 58% in 2016.

Edited by RoboFroogs
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This seems to be lost on a lot of people, but Hilton is quietly(?) having the best season of his career. He's on pace for 1,491 yards and that's with his first game having Tolzene as the starter. If you are able to get him at a discount because the owner is worried about when Luck comes back I think you need to jump on it. 

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1 hour ago, Catch23 said:

This seems to be lost on a lot of people, but Hilton is quietly(?) having the best season of his career. He's on pace for 1,491 yards and that's with his first game having Tolzene as the starter. If you are able to get him at a discount because the owner is worried about when Luck comes back I think you need to jump on it. 

 

May either want to try to get him before this game with the blowup potential or wait until after the Jags game Week 7 when the price may go down. 

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