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Colton Welker - 3B COL


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17 minutes ago, JenksDodger said:

One thing of note - he's playing in the best hitting environment in maybe all of baseball right now. I've heard analysts say they completely disregard any stats that come out of Lancaster. 

 

Yeah, he's going to put up some absurd stats in Lancaster. That won't diminish the fact that this kid has an excellent hit tool and burgeoning power.

 

As for timeline, I'd expect he gets half a year of raking at A before they consider AA. Regardless, I think he finishes in AA this year and either starts there or AAA next year if he is as successful as I expect.

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Welker has been getting some talk in other threads.  He's super young and only been in the Pioneer (rookie) League. He seems to have good contact skills and a decent power\speed mix.  It's certainly n

Just a quick update on Welker! He's currently on a 14 game hitting streak that began on the 22nd of April, and his slash line is up to .333/.419/.522 with 4 HRs and a SB in 136 PAs. He's supporting th

This guy...    2-4 with a HR and a BB last night.. HR wasn't in Lancaster!    .519/.600/.963  how ridiculous is that 

2 minutes ago, oswald737 said:

 

Yeah, he's going to put up some absurd stats in Lancaster. That won't diminish the fact that this kid has an excellent hit tool and burgeoning power.

 

As for timeline, I'd expect he gets half a year of raking at A before they consider AA. Regardless, I think he finishes in AA this year and either starts there or AAA next year if he is as successful as I expect.

 

Not arguing that at all.. his minors average is at .350 for a reason, however, when I first started getting into prospects I had no idea Lancaster was such a launching pad. I put that to maybe benefit someone who would compare his stats to another minor leaguer right now in a lesser hitting environment. 

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1 minute ago, JenksDodger said:

 

Not arguing that at all.. his minors average is at .350 for a reason, however, when I first started getting into prospects I had no idea Lancaster was such a launching pad. I put that to maybe benefit someone who would compare his stats to another minor leaguer right now in a lesser hitting environment. 

 

Yup. Was simply agreeing with you there for everyone's benefit.

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On 4/9/2018 at 4:10 AM, Baseball Jonze said:

Also where will he play?  Arenado ain't going nowhere.  Unlike Rodgers who could have a path to the MI in Colorado, is this guy a trade asset and how much value does he lose if he's not playing half his games at Coors?

Could very easily end up in left or right field

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2 hours ago, hard1 said:

Yuck ^

Why? For fantasy purposes it honestly depends on league settings, but in some leagues OF is shallower than 3B.

 

Just saying they will make a spot for him to play if Arenado is at the corner. Think Castellanos, Kris Bryant, etc — 3B but can play the corners. Castellanos probably the better comp, defense isn’t the calling card but the bat will play.

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7 hours ago, fawkes_mulder said:

Why? For fantasy purposes it honestly depends on league settings, but in some leagues OF is shallower than 3B.

 

Just saying they will make a spot for him to play if Arenado is at the corner. Think Castellanos, Kris Bryant, etc — 3B but can play the corners. Castellanos probably the better comp, defense isn’t the calling card but the bat will play.

Yes purely selfish reasons... got myself set up nicely in the outfield in two dynasty leagues....but my infield needs some help....

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Just a quick update on Welker! He's currently on a 14 game hitting streak that began on the 22nd of April, and his slash line is up to .333/.419/.522 with 4 HRs and a SB in 136 PAs. He's supporting that line with a 13.2% walk rate which is far and away the highest of his minor league career, and a 23.5% strikeout rate which is also the highest in his minor league career (previous high was 15.1% last year in A-ball). His swinging strike rate is also up to a career-worst 13.7% which is up from his 9.3% and 9.4% of his previous two minor league stops. His batted ball figures are relatively similar to past years except for his opposite field contact rate which has spiked this year to 45.9% from 30.8% last year. Not sure if that is an approach thing for Welker or if he's simply being late at the plate, but the shift to more opposite field contact likely isn't helping Welker tap into his power potential but instead is likely helping support his .420 BAPIP. The overall numbers look good right now, but some of the underlying metrics aren't what super encouraging for what I personally was projecting for Welker as I anticipated more of a power focus in the launching pad that Lancaster (his home ballpark) is. Regardless, he's still a super intriguing fantasy prospect and the potential of his talents at Coors Field makes him an easy top 100 fantasy prospect IMO.

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2 hours ago, aMediumPace said:

What’s the latest on welker? Any updates? 

 

I saw he was missing from fangraphs prospect ranking update, unless I totally overlooked him. 

 

Consensus seems to be that he's a big leaguer. Most reports say his defense has taken a big step forward and he now projects to play 3B easily. He's a natural hitter with bat speed and pitch recognition but his swing plane could be tweaked to give him better game power. Apparently has good raw power. 

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6 hours ago, aMediumPace said:

What’s the latest on welker? Any updates? 

 

I saw he was missing from fangraphs prospect ranking update, unless I totally overlooked him. 

 

He's in MLB.com's top 100 (at #91). If he carries over his performance to AA I think you'll see him start rocketing up the ranks at most publications. If the Rockies can't resign Arenado past next season (his final year of arbitration eligibility), there's a good chance Welker will really fly up the ranking lists, particularly ones weighted toward fantasy.

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Maybe but the 7 HRs in Lancaster in 250ish abs is disappointing and it’s nit like he’s Wade Boggs. So basically we are crossing fingers hoping he changes his swing plane successfully even though there is not an indication he actually will attempt it. In addition to all the stuff Garlando touched on. Seems like more of a simple Col prospect stash and cross fingers at this point. But hey, that does work out well from time to time. 

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For fantasy purposes I'm more than willing to anticipate a Coors Field bump as long as the lower level numbers are adequate and Welker still has an OPS north of .800 in the CAL league (Arenado had a .836 in the CAL followed by a .786 in AA). Sometimes having the opportunity is the biggest element when it comes to Coors.

 

Arenado's lifetime splits in the majors include a .965 OPS at Coors (.317 lifetime avg) and a .798 OPS on the road (.267 lifetime avg) and he's considered a superstar. If Arenado doesn't re-sign with Colorado I'm definitely staying away from him, but if Welker inherits the job by default I'm 100% onboard.

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Gleyber Torres had hit no more than 11 homers in the minors before this year. Simply put, the league trend is that players with good contact skills and batted ball profiles... as Welker clearly has... see a bump, often significant, coming to the majors with a juiced ball. That's before we even talk about the Coors effects.

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Maybe it's their lineup, but Rockies ranked 12th in the league in homers, 13th in hits, and 10th in runs scored (5th NL).  People are overrating the Coors effect somewhat.  

 

He's not going to be hitting in many pitcher friendly parks during his minor league tenure.  

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10 minutes ago, kidtwentytwo said:

People are overrating the Coors effect somewhat.   

 

Career OPS numbers:

 

Arenado - .963 home, .798 away

Blackmon - .958 home, .753 away

Story - .986 home, .701 away

Cargo - .977 home, .729 away
LeMahieu - .832 home, .682 away

 

The effect is real and substantial.

 

Colorado has also played 41 games on the road this season and just 31 at home (lots of early weather related postponements).

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