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Jay Ajayi 2017 Outlook


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46 minutes ago, Ffguy0087 said:

Ajayi could fit that fake bellcow mold too.

For different reasons though. 
You can find a way better 3rd down back than Ajayi. 
He is a 220 pound big plow even though he has no knees. 
Is he a particularly good back? No, probably not.
Can his body hold up as a bellcow? Until his knees give out. 

He reminds me of Blount running behind a top 3 OL.

Edited by CL3VELANDBR0WNS
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1 hour ago, Ffguy0087 said:

Ajayi could fit that fake bellcow mold too.

 

Ajayi is a grinder. He's good at being a grinder but unfortunately he's not elusive enough to be effective catching out of the backfield. 

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10 hours ago, boltup15 said:

 

Ajayi is a grinder. He's good at being a grinder but unfortunately he's not elusive enough to be effective catching out of the backfield. 

 

65th percentile agility score.  Higher than Drake.  Higher than Williams.

 

86th percentile college target share.  Higher than Drake.  Higher than Williams.

 

24% juke rate.  Higher than Drake.  Worse than Williams.

 

Those are the metrics of a guy that is capable in the passing game.  Just looking at the metrics he profiles as a guy very capable of handling 3rd down work if asked to.  They don't ask him to but everything on his resume says he can do it.

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7 minutes ago, 96mnc said:

 

65th percentile agility score.  Higher than Drake.  Higher than Williams.

 

86th percentile college target share.  Higher than Drake.  Higher than Williams.

 

24% juke rate.  Higher than Drake.  Worse than Williams.

 

Those are the metrics of a guy that is capable in the passing game.  Just looking at the metrics he profiles as a guy very capable of handling 3rd down work if asked to.  They don't ask him to but everything on his resume says he can do it.

 

Boise State didn't have much to offer in the receiving game. And 5.6 yards per reception isn't very good for a back. Sure he may have a high agility rate but he's not elusive. 

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12 hours ago, CL3VELANDBR0WNS said:

For different reasons though. 
You can find a way better 3rd down back than Ajayi. 
He is a 220 pound big plow even though he has no knees. 
Is he a particularly good back? No, probably not.
Can his body hold up as a bellcow? Until his knees give out. 

He reminds me of Blount running behind a top 3 OL.

 

Saying an RB with more 200 yard games than NFL seasons played isn't good is just not credible. 

 

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15 minutes ago, boltup15 said:

 

Boise State didn't have much to offer in the receiving game. And 5.6 yards per reception isn't very good for a back. Sure he may have a high agility rate but he's not elusive. 

 

Boise State may not have had much to offer but an 86th percentile target share number is still remarkable.

 

That 5.6 ypr is still better than Drake's.  Not Williams (over 10 ypr) but better than Drake.

 

24% juke rate.  5.8% big run rate.  Given the number of carries he had those are very solid numbers for a guy that was getting first and second down work predominantly.

 

His numbers compare very favorably to another guy that was considered only a two down back entering 2016 that proved capable of handling passing game work when he was required to do so - MG3.

 

Ajayi may not have a long career due to his knees and isn't a long-term dynasty asset by any means but for 2017 all the markers are there that indicate he'd be capable of handling 3rd down work (like MG3 did in 2016) if injury allowed him the opportunity.

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5 minutes ago, 96mnc said:

 

Boise State may not have had much to offer but an 86th percentile target share number is still remarkable.

 

That 5.6 ypr is still better than Drake's.  Not Williams (over 10 ypr) but better than Drake.

 

24% juke rate.  5.8% big run rate.  Given the number of carries he had those are very solid numbers for a guy that was getting first and second down work predominantly.

 

His numbers compare very favorably to another guy that was considered only a two down back entering 2016 that proved capable of handling passing game work when he was required to do so - MG3.

 

Ajayi may not have a long career due to his knees and isn't a long-term dynasty asset by any means but for 2017 all the markers are there that indicate he'd be capable of handling 3rd down work (like MG3 did in 2016) if injury allowed him the opportunity.

 

I get that there is the opportunity for him to get 3rd down work but we didn't see it last year when he was already almost essentially in a 3 down role and didn't get much receiving action. He barily got involved in the receiving game. Gordon was already involved in 2015 in the receiving game and his ADP was in the 60's. Ajayi's is in the 10-20 range (14 right now). That's tough for me to come to terms with. Lesean McCoy last year for example was going around 20/21 but he was heavily involved in all aspects of the game and has a proven track record. Jay Ajayi at 14 is risky. Too much risk for me to even comtemplate taking a chance on him. 

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10 minutes ago, boltup15 said:

 

I get that there is the opportunity for him to get 3rd down work but we didn't see it last year when he was already almost essentially in a 3 down role and didn't get much receiving action. He barily got involved in the receiving game. Gordon was already involved in 2015 in the receiving game and his ADP was in the 60's. Ajayi's is in the 10-20 range (14 right now). That's tough for me to come to terms with. Lesean McCoy last year for example was going around 20/21 but he was heavily involved in all aspects of the game and has a proven track record. Jay Ajayi at 14 is risky. Too much risk for me to even comtemplate taking a chance on him. 

Ajayi's 16' rec numbers were pretty close to MG's rookie year actually.  I think Ajayi has more receiving chops then Miami let him show this past season.  TBH, i thought they monkeyed around far too long with that overall RB rotation in MIA starting with Foster, then Ajayi, then Drake, Williams etc.  96 makes a good comparison to the point maybe Ajayi continues to take a leap forward with his overall skill set which includes more involvement in the passing game.

 

I agree with you I'm nervous about where Ajayi's overall ADP is early on.  IT does feel risky.  There is upside here to be had though and if MIA can have a little more luck health wise on that OL they may have one of the best units across the league.  Albert looks to be on the move but i think they are ready to reposition Tunsil.  If they commit to Ajayi more in 17' and that OL gets right, he could be worth that ADP when all said and done.   

Edited by BlakeP42
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11 minutes ago, boltup15 said:

 

I get that there is the opportunity for him to get 3rd down work but we didn't see it last year when he was already almost essentially in a 3 down role and didn't get much receiving action. He barily got involved in the receiving game. Gordon was already involved in 2015 in the receiving game and his ADP was in the 60's. Ajayi's is in the 10-20 range (14 right now). That's tough for me to come to terms with. Lesean McCoy last year for example was going around 20/21 but he was heavily involved in all aspects of the game and has a proven track record. Jay Ajayi at 14 is risky. Too much risk for me to even comtemplate taking a chance on him. 

 

Ajayi was NOT in a 3rd down role last year.  Damien Williams was the 3rd down back and rightfully so.  Ajayi's passing game work was comprised of first and second down checkdowns.  He was not a true three down back.

 

Gordon had 37 targets in 2015.  Ajayi had 35 in 2016.  Their pass game exposure was the same.

 

I agree with your ending conclusion of not drafting Ajayi at 14 in ppr for a number of reasons (the presence of Williams being the chief one) but IF he was thrust into the 3rd down role he would produce in the passing game as capably as Gordon did last year. 

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Franklin Ajayi's biggest drawback on 3rd down is he might be the worst blocker I've ever seen in college. NFL coaches don't like seeing the QB getting crunched...EVER ! Even if it is Ryan Tanneyhill.

 

  I drafted Jay in 2nd rd of our essential rookie only draft his rookie year. At Boise he was more than capable as a receiver but I swear he closes his eyes in blitz pickup. Perhaps he can learn it but definitely not his strong suit. Still he is 2nd rd overall material even with limited limited 3rd down production. If he can add that to his resume he moves up to the top of the 2nd & flirting with late 1st rd.

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3 minutes ago, 96mnc said:

(the presence of Williams being the chief one)

it will be interesting to see if they retain Williams given his RFA status. Given that Drake is on the books for a small amount, i wonder if they come back with the Ajayi, Williams, Drake group and see how that plays out, or if they let Williams test the market, leave, then bring aboard another RB to work in Williams place.

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A firm DND for me this year. Let's take a look at his game logs.

Over the 12 games he started here is his production:

 

5 games under 60 yards

3 games from 60-80 yards

1 game at 110

3 games over 200

 

So 40% of his games were total duds or 100% TD dependent. 

66% were mediocre and still TD dependent

33% were not TD dependent

Of course 25% of his total games were utter beast.

 

Please take into account that he never even hit 30 yards receiving. Meaning he is not a receiving threat whatsoever. Yeah I don't want to take a guy in the second round that Has a 2/3 chance of being utterly mediocre and 2/5 percent of ****ting the bed unless he salvages a TD in this mediocre offense. No thank you.

Edited by Gohawks
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15 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

Meaning he is not a receiving threat whatsoever. Yeah I don't want to take a guy in the second round that Has a 2/3 chance of being utterly mediocre and 2/5 percent of ****ting the bed unless he salvages a TD in this mediocre offense. No thank you.

Edited 11 minutes ago by Gohawks

i honestly avoided Melvin Gordon with this same line of thinking coming into 2016 based off what i felt i saw in 2015.   It was a mistake.  Like i said above, his early ADP may be too risky for my liking right now, but I'm not going to dismiss him all together heading into 17'.  If they will commit to giving him a greater workload with the OL i expect to be in place in 17', its possible he makes the MG type leap in 17'.    His game log totals can be picked apart as concerning but he also strung together some monstrous numbers that make it hard to turn a blind eye to.    Im not sure if i think Ajayi is crazy talented but i more really like the situation he could be entering in to this season ahead.  

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23 minutes ago, BlakeP42 said:

i honestly avoided Melvin Gordon with this same line of thinking coming into 2016 based off what i felt i saw in 2015.   It was a mistake.  Like i said above, his early ADP may be too risky for my liking right now, but I'm not going to dismiss him all together heading into 17'.  If they will commit to giving him a greater workload with the OL i expect to be in place in 17', its possible he makes the MG type leap in 17'.    His game log totals can be picked apart as concerning but he also strung together some monstrous numbers that make it hard to turn a blind eye to.    Im not sure if i think Ajayi is crazy talented but i more really like the situation he could be entering in to this season ahead.  

He is going to drive a mid second round value it seems. In the Green, Nelson, Thomas, and Hilton range. Also near guys like Lamar Miller. While I don't consider Miller very good at least he showed some consistency. Also Bryant is in that range although my outlook on him is TBD. So yeah a DND unless he drops to the Cooper Adams range.

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2 hours ago, Gohawks said:

A firm DND for me this year. Let's take a look at his game logs.

Over the 12 games he started here is his production:

 

5 games under 60 yards

3 games from 60-80 yards

1 game at 110

3 games over 200

 

So 40% of his games were total duds or 100% TD dependent. 

66% were mediocre and still TD dependent

33% were not TD dependent

Of course 25% of his total games were utter beast.

 

Please take into account that he never even hit 30 yards receiving. Meaning he is not a receiving threat whatsoever. Yeah I don't want to take a guy in the second round that Has a 2/3 chance of being utterly mediocre and 2/5 percent of ****ting the bed unless he salvages a TD in this mediocre offense. No thank you.

 

Now match those games with a fully intact offensive line, specifically Pouncey at center.   The pattern becomes pretty clear.

 

For the record, I'm not advocating for him necessarily at a second round adp.  Although I made the comp to MG3, MG3 had a 5th or 6th round price tag last year.   HUGE difference.

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1 hour ago, 96mnc said:

 

Now match those games with a fully intact offensive line, specifically Pouncey at center.   The pattern becomes pretty clear.

 

For the record, I'm not advocating for him necessarily at a second round adp.  Although I made the comp to MG3, MG3 had a 5th or 6th round price tag last year.   HUGE difference.

I don't want a running back that is fully dependent on a 100% healthy line. Often offensive linemen drop like flies. Sure he did great with Pouncey but if the only reason you were playing like a stud is because of a center who seems to be very injury prone than i'll take my chances somewher else. His hip scares me quite a bit.

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6 hours ago, joshua18 said:

 

Saying an RB with more 200 yard games than NFL seasons played isn't good is just not credible. 

 

He was good when he had his top OL healthy.
He was not good when he didn't.
Good for now, could absolutely see his stock crushed on draft day.

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1 hour ago, Gohawks said:

I don't want a running back that is fully dependent on a 100% healthy line. Often offensive linemen drop like flies. Sure he did great with Pouncey but if the only reason you were playing like a stud is because of a center who seems to be very injury prone than i'll take my chances somewher else. His hip scares me quite a bit.

 

Exactly how many backs rushed for 200 yards last year?   And how many did it multiple times?  And one of those games was without Pouncey.

 

I'm not saying Ajayi is the next coming or anything.  But he gets dismissed being a complete scrub.  You don't rush for 200 yards multiple times in a season if you're a scrub.

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1 hour ago, CL3VELANDBR0WNS said:

He was good when he had his top OL healthy.
He was not good when he didn't.
Good for now, could absolutely see his stock crushed on draft day.

 

That goes for all but about 5 backs in the NFL.

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Just now, 96mnc said:

 

Exactly how many backs rushed for 200 yards last year?   And how many did it multiple times?  And one of those games was without Pouncey.

 

I'm not saying Ajayi is the next coming or anything.  But he gets dismissed being a complete scrub.  You don't rush for 200 yards multiple times in a season if you're a scrub.

 

Thank you. People act like anyone could run for 200 yards in an NFL game. Ajayi did it 3 times in one season!

 

For perspective, Emmitt Smith -- behind arguably the best OL of all time didn't break 200 more than 3 times his ENTIRE CAREER!

 

 

 

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7 hours ago, Gohawks said:

5 games under 60 yards

3 games from 60-80 yards

1 game at 110

3 games over 200

 

So 40% of his games were total duds or 100% TD dependent. 


First and foremost, let me be clear that I am not here to discuss Ajayi specifically, nor his price, skill, etc.  I know what I see, and in the near future I'll have to find a way to accurately value that for the upcoming fantasy season.  For the time being, this post is specifically about Fantasy Football or more accurately perspective.

 

Consider this a friendly reminder, that 62 yards a game, and a TD every other game... is a 1000 yard season and 8 touchdowns.

In 2016 there were only 12 RBs who rushed for over 1,000 yards, 1 of which was Ajayi himself.

In 2015, there were only 7 who accomplished the feat.

 

In 2016 there were only 14 RBs who scored 8 TDs or more, 1 of which was Ajayi himself.

In 2015, there were only 7 who accomplished the feat.

 

My point, is that 62 yards 1 week, and 62 yards + a TD the next week, despite being a (crude) 6 and 12 points each week, is usually what actually results in top 12 production at the end of the year.  Those stats alone, are 148 points in a standard league.  Even completely ignoring ANY presence in the passing game, that would have ranked Ajayi as the 17th highest scoring RB on the season last year.  Of the 12 games Ajayi started, even if you were to remove all 3 of his 200 yard games... he averaged 63 yards per game.
 

Reminder... this is not to try and argue, nor justify, Ajayi's current ADP, price, value etc... I'm just trying to shine some light on what a 'solid season' looks like on a weekly basis in this game, purely for perspective.

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4 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:


First and foremost, let me be clear that I am not here to discuss Ajayi specifically, nor his price, skill, etc.  I know what I see, and in the near future I'll have to find a way to accurately value that for the upcoming fantasy season.  For the time being, this post is specifically about Fantasy Football or more accurately perspective.

 

Consider this a friendly reminder, that 62 yards a game, and a TD every other game... is a 1000 yard season and 8 touchdowns.

In 2016 there were only 12 RBs who rushed for over 1,000 yards, 1 of which was Ajayi himself.

In 2015, there were only 7 who accomplished the feat.

 

In 2016 there were only 14 RBs who scored 8 TDs or more, 1 of which was Ajayi himself.

In 2015, there were only 7 who accomplished the feat.

 

My point, is that 62 yards 1 week, and 62 yards + a TD the next week, despite being a (crude) 6 and 12 points each week, is usually what actually results in top 12 production at the end of the year.  Those stats alone, are 148 points in a standard league.  Even completely ignoring ANY presence in the passing game, that would have ranked Ajayi as the 17th highest scoring RB on the season last year.  Of the 12 games Ajayi started, even if you were to remove all 3 of his 200 yard games... he averaged 63 yards per game.
 

Reminder... this is not to try and argue, nor justify, Ajayi's current ADP, price, value etc... I'm just trying to shine some light on what a 'solid season' looks like on a weekly basis in this game, purely for perspective.

 

Good reminder.

 

It's also worth remembering that format has a huge impact on a player's value, especially a RB.  Things are very different in full ppr vs standard.

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2 hours ago, 96mnc said:

 

Exactly how many backs rushed for 200 yards last year?   And how many did it multiple times?  And one of those games was without Pouncey.

 

I'm not saying Ajayi is the next coming or anything.  But he gets dismissed being a complete scrub.  You don't rush for 200 yards multiple times in a season if you're a scrub.

 

12 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:


First and foremost, let me be clear that I am not here to discuss Ajayi specifically, nor his price, skill, etc.  I know what I see, and in the near future I'll have to find a way to accurately value that for the upcoming fantasy season.  For the time being, this post is specifically about Fantasy Football or more accurately perspective.

 

Consider this a friendly reminder, that 62 yards a game, and a TD every other game... is a 1000 yard season and 8 touchdowns.

In 2016 there were only 12 RBs who rushed for over 1,000 yards, 1 of which was Ajayi himself.

In 2015, there were only 7 who accomplished the feat.

 

In 2016 there were only 14 RBs who scored 8 TDs or more, 1 of which was Ajayi himself.

In 2015, there were only 7 who accomplished the feat.

 

My point, is that 62 yards 1 week, and 62 yards + a TD the next week, despite being a (crude) 6 and 12 points each week, is usually what actually results in top 12 production at the end of the year.  Those stats alone, are 148 points in a standard league.  Even completely ignoring ANY presence in the passing game, that would have ranked Ajayi as the 17th highest scoring RB on the season last year.  Of the 12 games Ajayi started, even if you were to remove all 3 of his 200 yard games... he averaged 63 yards per game.
 

Reminder... this is not to try and argue, nor justify, Ajayi's current ADP, price, value etc... I'm just trying to shine some light on what a 'solid season' looks like on a weekly basis in this game, purely for perspective.

I'm not saying Ajayi is a scrub nor am I saying he won't do good next year. I'm not putting a bust label on him right now.

 

I'm saying he is not worth his likely ADP for the reasons listed above. I see him going 13-16. I value him around 23-26. Obviously do prove why he is not worth his ADP I am going to bring up reasons that I believe support my claim. If he was projected, say, 35 I would be arguing that he is too low and I would be using evidence to support that claim. 

 

As for the last point you make about rushing YPG I really don't care about that. All that matters is scrimmage yards. He would be 14th last year in those if you use your model. Obviously taking out big games is utterly stupid but that is a point to take into account. 

 

Again, he isn't a bad player just not an early second round player. Quite a large difference.

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5 hours ago, 96mnc said:

 

That goes for all but about 5 backs in the NFL.

I suppose and I normally don't go and lay a crap sandwich in bad RB threads but my first post was moved.
I think there are plenty of good backs but 5 good backs that fit the bellcow profile.

Edited by CL3VELANDBR0WNS
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