Jump to content
NBC Sports Edge Forums

Jay Ajayi 2017 Outlook


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.4k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

1 hour ago, cyberwatty said:

No it's not. I'd take him at the fourth pick every draft. 

 

 Nothing wrong with this at all (even if it is more aggressive than I am).  The body of work is smaller than ideal for such a steep investment, but the stars are certainly all aligned for Ajayi.

Edited by Rolling Thunder
Link to post
Share on other sites
On 6/12/2017 at 2:42 AM, Gohawks said:

I can't wrap my mind around why anyone would take an unproven commoditiy full of questions over an extremely proven one like T.Y Hilton and others.

 

Every year it's the same story. You have a wave of RBs rise to the second or even first round with no real track record. Based on history Ajayi has a roughly 50% bust chance. Fantasy football is extremely unpredictable minus maybe 15 players. You want to take those players and Ajayi is not one of those. Argue all you want but the fact remains that no one knows how he will do. So why take him over someone that you know will perform? 

 

Because his ceiling is higher in standard.    We can apply some criteria to the first two rounds to lower that 50% bust chance (which is what you're doing!).  Also TY's production is linked to Luck's health as well as his own.  I don't disagree that TY is safer in general, I'm just saying I can see why people are drafting Ajayi so early...especially after owners were hitting the DJ and Zeke lottery last season.

 

Ajayi does have a bit of a track record, we've seen him start 12 games.  Of those he had four games over 100 yards, three of those over 200.   It's interesting to note that two of the 200 yard games were against Buffalo.  The other two good games were versus the Jets and Steelers, both of whom held Ajayi in check when they met up with him later in the season.

 

Ajayi's 2016 stats remind me a bit of Demarco Murray's rookie season where Demarco had some big games mixed in with duds:

 

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MurrDe00/gamelog/2011/

Edited by Iron-cock
Link to post
Share on other sites

11. Jay Ajayi, MIA
2017 Projection: 290 attempts / 1392 rushing yards / 8 rushing touchdowns;  22 receptions / 143 receiving yards / 0 receiving touchdowns (223 points)
Outlook: One of 2016's surprise performers, Ajayi demonstrated his skills as one of the NFL's most balanced runners between power, speed, and shiftiness. He ran wild in a few games and brought the Dolphins back to the playoffs. This year, the coaching staff wants to get him even more involved, with rumors of 350+ touches being floated out there. Obviously, that's a heavy burden, but if there is any year to get on the Ajayi bandwagon, it's this year. Volume hog on an offense that projects to be better led by underappreciated coach Adam Gase. This is a team on the rise. He could get more touches than what I have projected, yet I am skeptical about those reports.
 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Just got him in a Dynasty trade. I have a few questions for Ajayi fans:

1. Is Ajayi in position to be the lead back for a few years?
2. Does Ajayi have competition that people should worry about?
3. The O-Line. Is it even good?

Thank you for answering these questions. They're probably stupid questions, but I have no research on Jay and would like opinions from people who have studied him all offseason.

Link to post
Share on other sites
29 minutes ago, ponza88 said:

Just got him in a Dynasty trade. I have a few questions for Ajayi fans:

1. Is Ajayi in position to be the lead back for a few years?
2. Does Ajayi have competition that people should worry about?
3. The O-Line. Is it even good?

Thank you for answering these questions. They're probably stupid questions, but I have no research on Jay and would like opinions from people who have studied him all offseason.

1.  Depends on his success or lack of success in 2017.

2.  Not right now.

3.  I would rank them somewhere in the middle of the league.

Link to post
Share on other sites
On 6/26/2017 at 10:30 AM, Rolling Thunder said:

 

 Nothing wrong with this at all (even if it is more aggressive than I am).  The body of work is smaller than ideal for such a steep investment, but the stars are certainly all aligned for Ajayi.

Yes there is something wrong with it. 

 

Just because you throw a dart blindfolded and hit the bullseye it sure doesn't make you good at darts.

 

The data showing players like Gordon, Brown, and etc will have a better season than Ajayi and are just a better pick overall is ridiculous. If you told me you drafted Blount in the 3rd round last year I wouldn't pat you on the back I'd call you an idiot. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, ponza88 said:

Just got him in a Dynasty trade. I have a few questions for Ajayi fans:

1. Is Ajayi in position to be the lead back for a few years?
2. Does Ajayi have competition that people should worry about?
3. The O-Line. Is it even good?

Thank you for answering these questions. They're probably stupid questions, but I have no research on Jay and would like opinions from people who have studied him all offseason.

 

If Pouncey is healthy, it's a top-5 OL. Otherwise it's a bottom 1/3 unit. 

 

Ajayi is a huge risk (yuge!), but unlike someone like Gordon has actually shown he can stay healthy in the NFL (ironic) and can average more than 4 ypc despite not having a likely future HOF QB in his backfield.  He's my #3 RB, but there are at least 7 WRs plus Gronk I'd take ahead of him in redraft PPR leagues. 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, joshua18 said:

 

If Pouncey is healthy, it's a top-5 OL. Otherwise it's a bottom 1/3 unit. 

 

Ajayi is a huge risk (yuge!), but unlike someone like Gordon has actually shown he can stay healthy in the NFL (ironic) and can average more than 4 ypc despite not having a likely future HOF QB in his backfield.  He's my #3 RB, but there are at least 7 WRs plus Gronk I'd take ahead of him in redraft PPR leagues. 

 

why is there a "future HOF QB" qualifier for your rb evaluation?

Edited by psygolf
Link to post
Share on other sites
25 minutes ago, psygolf said:

why is there a "future HOF QB" qualifier for your rb evaluation?

 

Because a good RB should be able to exceed 4 ypc when Rivers is his QB. Ajayi is special but has a lot of risk. High ceiling, low floor. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
On June 26, 2017 at 10:30 AM, Rolling Thunder said:

 

 Nothing wrong with this at all (even if it is more aggressive than I am).  The body of work is smaller than ideal for such a steep investment, but the stars are certainly all aligned for Ajayi.

Also, the stars are not aligned for him. In fact, it is not even close.

 

First off, the offensive line is middle of the pack at best right now and depending on how things go can easily finish in the bottom third. Second, the offense is mediocre at best. Their defense also looks like it is going to be average. The Dolphins are mediocre at everything. I wouldn't consider that the stars having aligned. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Gohawks said:

Also, the stars are not aligned for him. In fact, it is not even close.

 

First off, the offensive line is middle of the pack at best right now and depending on how things go can easily finish in the bottom third. Second, the offense is mediocre at best. Their defense also looks like it is going to be average. The Dolphins are mediocre at everything. I wouldn't consider that the stars having aligned. 

 

I give Tannehill's opinion more weight than yours:

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000818196/article/tannehill-17-dolphins-is-best-offense-ive-played-on

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, joshua18 said:

 

Because a good RB should be able to exceed 4 ypc when Rivers is his QB. Ajayi is special but has a lot of risk. High ceiling, low floor. 

 

That offensive line was horrible.  I think yards after contact gained by MG3 would support that assertion.

Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, joshua18 said:

 

Because a good RB should be able to exceed 4 ypc when Rivers is his QB. Ajayi is special but has a lot of risk. High ceiling, low floor. 

 

How much should a good RB exceed 4 YPC by?

Link to post
Share on other sites

I wouldn't draft this guy if you paid me. Bust of the year, easily. Sorry Ajayi fans, but you're failing, and failing hard. You've been warned.

 

 

 

 

 

 

PS. here is a quick recap of my previous 'bust of the year' candidates:

 

2012: Ryan Mathews

2013: David Wilson

2014: Montee Ball

2015: Jeremy Hill

2016: Allen Robinson

 

Every year i identify one player i would avoid at all costs. These were among the highest valued players, in or around the first round, with tons of hype surrounding them. I was 100% sure they were busts - the biggest landmines, if you like. While i do make my fair share of mistakes, I like my track record on this.

 

 

Welcome to the list, Jay.

Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, predator_05 said:

I wouldn't draft this guy if you paid me. Bust of the year, easily. Sorry Ajayi fans, but you're failing, and failing hard. You've been warned.

 

 

 

 

 

 

PS. here is a quick recap of my previous 'bust of the year' candidates:

 

2012: Ryan Mathews

2013: David Wilson

2014: Montee Ball

2015: Jeremy Hill

2016: Allen Robinson

 

Every year i identify one player i would avoid at all costs. These were among the highest valued players, in or around the first round, with tons of hype surrounding them. I was 100% sure they were busts - the biggest landmines, if you like. While i do make my fair share of mistakes, I like my track record on this.

 

 

Welcome to the list, Jay.

 

So you're saying that Gase's offense will be worse than LA's last season, notwithstanding how Tannehill feels about things:

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000818196/article/tannehill-17-dolphins-is-best-offense-ive-played-on

 

OR

 

Miami just won't bother to field a RB???

 

Because Ajayi is the only guy who is going to occupy the backfield all 3 downs, I'd say your bust prediction has long odds if the Dolphins' offense manages to be middle of the pack (or better).    

 

Edited by Rolling Thunder
Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, predator_05 said:

I wouldn't draft this guy if you paid me. Bust of the year, easily. Sorry Ajayi fans, but you're failing, and failing hard. You've been warned.

 

 

 

 

 

 

PS. here is a quick recap of my previous 'bust of the year' candidates:

 

2012: Ryan Mathews

2013: David Wilson

2014: Montee Ball

2015: Jeremy Hill

2016: Allen Robinson

 

Every year i identify one player i would avoid at all costs. These were among the highest valued players, in or around the first round, with tons of hype surrounding them. I was 100% sure they were busts - the biggest landmines, if you like. While i do make my fair share of mistakes, I like my track record on this.

 

 

Welcome to the list, Jay.

 

Do you have links to where you "called" these busts?

 

Or do we just take your word for it?

 

Did you have a reason behind picking these guys as busts or was it just your gut?

 

 

 

Please elaborate.

Edited by DerrickHenrysCleats
Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Rolling Thunder said:

 

So you're saying that Gase's offense will be worse than LA's last season, notwithstanding how Tannehill feels about things:

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000818196/article/tannehill-17-dolphins-is-best-offense-ive-played-on

 

OR

 

Miami just won't bother to field a RB???

 

Because Ajayi the only guy who is going to occupy the backfield all 3 downs, I'd say your bust prediction has long odds if the Dolphins' offense manages middle of the pack (or better).    

 

 

what? I didn't say a single thing about Gase, Miami's offense or LA's offense. No clue where you got that.

 

I think Ajayi sucks, its very simple.

 

And being 'the only guy to occupy all 3 downs' is an argument we heard for previous bust of the year candidates as well. There is more to it than that.

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

Do you have links to where you "called" these busts?

 

Or do we just take your word for it?

 

Did you have a reason behind picking these guys as busts or was it just your gut?

 

 

 

Please elaborate.

 

I'm not prowling through 8000+ posts i have made on this forum since 2009. If you don't believe me, that's cool. Keep it moving.

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, predator_05 said:

 

I'm not prowling through 8000+ posts i have made on this forum since 2009. If you don't believe me, that's cool. Keep it moving.

Booked marked "in your head" then??   URFOS

Link to post
Share on other sites
34 minutes ago, Rolling Thunder said:

 

So you're saying that Gase's offense will be worse than LA's last season, notwithstanding how Tannehill feels about things:

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000818196/article/tannehill-17-dolphins-is-best-offense-ive-played-on

 

OR

 

Miami just won't bother to field a RB???

 

Because Ajayi is the only guy who is going to occupy the backfield all 3 downs, I'd say your bust prediction has long odds if the Dolphins' offense manages to be middle of the pack (or better).    

 

 

I hear a lot of people mentioning that Ajayi is going to be a 3 down back. 

 

Williams did nothing last year to make me think he's going to disappear.

 

Not saying that Ajayi wouldn't be fine on 3rd downs as a pass catcher or check down guy (assuming his pass pro has improved) but I want to see them actually take the role from Williams first.

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, 96mnc said:

 

I hear a lot of people mentioning that Ajayi is going to be a 3 down back. 

 

Williams did nothing last year to make me think he's going to disappear.

 

Not saying that Ajayi wouldn't be fine on 3rd downs as a pass catcher or check down guy (assuming his pass pro has improved) but I want to see them actually take the role from Williams first.

 

Maybe you can get Ajayi in the 1st round next year after he shows you those things you want to see first.

Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

Maybe you can get Ajayi in the 1st round next year after he shows you those things you want to see first.

 

Do you have a case for why Williams should be pulled from the 3rd down role?

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • tonycpsu changed the title to Jay Ajayi 2017 Outlook
  • tonycpsu locked this topic
  • tonycpsu unlocked this topic
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.


×
×
  • Create New...