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Jay Ajayi 2017 Outlook


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13 minutes ago, 96mnc said:

 

Do you have a case for why Williams should be pulled from the 3rd down role?


Yes. Jay Ajayi has been working all offseason on his pass catching. All coaches are commenting about how he looks more fluid as a runner, how they want to get him more involved in passing plays and 3rd downs. They also mentioned they want to get him 350 touches (which means, somewhere in the vicinity of)... The town of miami (fans, coaches, beatwriters) are talking about Ajayi as their RB1, their bellcow... meaning more opportunities in a 3rd down role... more opportunities for Ajayi (their RB1) this year, to see if he can handle it.... Meaning, Williams touch % goes down.

All things consider, I'll jump on now to see how big this wave gets. I wouldn't want to be the fool that tries to get him next year if he's a David Johnson.

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2 hours ago, Iron-cock said:

 

How much should a good RB exceed 4 YPC by?

 

At least reach the overall NFL average YPC, which off the top of my head is something like 4.2. That shouldn't be hard for a good RB playing with a future HOF QB that defenses still have to respect.

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1 hour ago, Rolling Thunder said:

 

So you're saying that Gase's offense will be worse than LA's last season, notwithstanding how Tannehill feels about things:

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000818196/article/tannehill-17-dolphins-is-best-offense-ive-played-on

 

OR

 

Miami just won't bother to field a RB???

 

Because Ajayi is the only guy who is going to occupy the backfield all 3 downs, I'd say your bust prediction has long odds if the Dolphins' offense manages to be middle of the pack (or better).    

 

You're saying that the QB of that team says this team is the best he has played on?!?

 

Well gee I've never heard that one before!!!

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1 hour ago, ponza88 said:


Yes. Jay Ajayi has been working all offseason on his pass catching. All coaches are commenting about how he looks more fluid as a runner, how they want to get him more involved in passing plays and 3rd downs. They also mentioned they want to get him 350 touches (which means, somewhere in the vicinity of)... The town of miami (fans, coaches, beatwriters) are talking about Ajayi as their RB1, their bellcow... meaning more opportunities in a 3rd down role... more opportunities for Ajayi (their RB1) this year, to see if he can handle it.... Meaning, Williams touch % goes down.

All things consider, I'll jump on now to see how big this wave gets. I wouldn't want to be the fool that tries to get him next year if he's a David Johnson.

 

I can see 300+ carries and 30 catches.  But he's not an 80 reception monster like David Johnson.  

 

Williams averaged 10.8 yards per reception last year in a 3rd down role.  You just don't bench that level of production.

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1 minute ago, 96mnc said:

 

I can see 300+ carries and 30 catches.  But he's not an 80 reception monster like David Johnson.  

 

Williams averaged 10.8 yards per reception last year in a 3rd down role.  You just don't bench that level of production.


Who's to say Ajayi won't average the same, a little less or a little more than Williams this season, with his offseason improvement and coaches building offensive schemes around him?

You wouldn't want to bench Ajayi if he's taking over a game, do you?

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Also the David Johnson reference was in reference to a young kid breaking out and having a year where he cements himself as the lead dog and offensive focal point.

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43 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

You're saying that the QB of that team says this team is the best he has played on?!?

 

Well gee I've never heard that one before!!!


Do you automatically dismiss everything that you hear because it contradicts what you've seen a couple times in the past?

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I think this season Williams probably comes in on 3rd and 10, but I think they will keep Ajayi in for anything less than 3rd and 5 (assuming he improves in pass pro). Ajayi is just as capable when catching those short passes and him being in there keeps the defense guessing. Obviously this is just pure speculation from an optimistic fan though. 

Edited by FinsUp24
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I have concerns about Ajayi. I think he's a major regression candidate in several ways. I think he's OL dependent with a fragile OL. I think Miami will win fewer games. I think that Damian Williams is profoundly underrated as a real-life player, and I think they want Drake involved in the pass game.

 

I'm a talent-forward fantasy player. I want guys who I think are excellent real players. Ajayi I think is pretty good but nothing more. Still, holy crap that potential volume. Really hard to resist him in the mid-second. I'm a well-established Jordan Howard man. But after the big three plus Howard and McCoy, Ajayi is pretty hard to dismiss.

 

Much has been said about Howard vs. Ajayi. Anyone want to weigh in on Ajayi vs. Freeman? I guess I'm leaning Freeman, but the more I consider it, the more tempted I am to dial up Ajayi. It's a bit moot in snake for me, as usually Freeman is gone before Howard, but I'm still curious to hear what people think.

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6 minutes ago, irvnasty said:

I have concerns about Ajayi. I think he's a major regression candidate in several ways. I think he's OL dependent with a fragile OL. I think Miami will win fewer games. I think that Damian Williams is profoundly underrated as a real-life player, and I think they want Drake involved in the pass game.

 

I'm a talent-forward fantasy player. I want guys who I think are excellent real players. Ajayi I think is pretty good but nothing more. Still, holy crap that potential volume. Really hard to resist him in the mid-second. I'm a well-established Jordan Howard man. But after the big three plus Howard and McCoy, Ajayi is pretty hard to dismiss.

 

Much has been said about Howard vs. Ajayi. Anyone want to weigh in on Ajayi vs. Freeman? I guess I'm leaning Freeman, but the more I consider it, the more tempted I am to dial up Ajayi. It's a bit moot in snake for me, as usually Freeman is gone before Howard, but I'm still curious to hear what people think.

 

I'm wildly biased, but I'd take Ajayi over Freeman all day in standard. PPR may be a different story. Yes, Freeman is definitely the safer pick, but it's just hard to justify taking a guy that is splitting carries over a guy that has all the opportunity in the world. Also, I see a lot of people commenting on the OL and Ajayi's performance last year, but I think people are underestimating how much this kid can improve this offseason as he enters his third year at the age of 24. I've watched every game these past two seasons and Ajayi looked like a different runner last season then he did as a rookie. So even if these off-season reports are a bit optimistic, I'm buying into the fact that he is still developing and that he still has room for growth. He flashed what he was capable of last year in a few games, and I think he finds that kind of production with more regularity this season. 

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4 hours ago, Rolling Thunder said:

 

So you're saying that Gase's offense will be worse than LA's last season, notwithstanding how Tannehill feels about things:

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000818196/article/tannehill-17-dolphins-is-best-offense-ive-played-on

 

OR

 

Miami just won't bother to field a RB???

 

Because Ajayi is the only guy who is going to occupy the backfield all 3 downs, I'd say your bust prediction has long odds if the Dolphins' offense manages to be middle of the pack (or better).    

 

 

Why do you keep sighting how Tannehill feels about things?  Lol.  He's the teams QB what's he going to say?  Hardly predictive of anything. There have been more puff pieces out of Miami than any team as it is. I like Ajayi a lot actually but this is hardly solid reasoning. He was a late 2nd round pick earlier in the offseason. All of this fluff seems to have pushed him into tge first round. Not so much a buyer there. 

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1 hour ago, irvnasty said:

I have concerns about Ajayi. I think he's a major regression candidate in several ways. I think he's OL dependent with a fragile OL. I think Miami will win fewer games. I think that Damian Williams is profoundly underrated as a real-life player, and I think they want Drake involved in the pass game.

 

I'm a talent-forward fantasy player. I want guys who I think are excellent real players. Ajayi I think is pretty good but nothing more. Still, holy crap that potential volume. Really hard to resist him in the mid-second. I'm a well-established Jordan Howard man. But after the big three plus Howard and McCoy, Ajayi is pretty hard to dismiss.

 

Much has been said about Howard vs. Ajayi. Anyone want to weigh in on Ajayi vs. Freeman? I guess I'm leaning Freeman, but the more I consider it, the more tempted I am to dial up Ajayi. It's a bit moot in snake for me, as usually Freeman is gone before Howard, but I'm still curious to hear what people think.

I like Ajayi's potential a whole lot.  But....

I'd take Freeman just because I see him as a safer bet.   Atl isn't all of the sudden going to be anemic on offense just because Shanny left.  It's the same guys and Matt Ryan's progress is a big factor in it.  He may share carries but I just can't dismiss him anymore.  I've done it the last 2 seasons.   He's the main guy and Coleman has his defined role on a top 5 offense. 

Rb5- Gordon

6-Freeman

7- Ajayi

8-Howard

 

Wouldn't fault anybody for completely reversing this order- it's that close.   I think McCoy is closer to the big 3 than this group.  Barring injury he'll be right up there.

Edited by Impreza178
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1 minute ago, Impreza178 said:

I like Ajayi's potential a whole lot.  But....

I'd take Freeman just because I see him as a safer bet.   Atl isn't all of the sudden going to be anemic on offense just because Shanny left.  It's the same guys and Matt Ryan's progress is a big factor in it.  He may share carries but I just can't dismiss him anymore.  I've done it the last 2 seasons.   He's the main guy and Coleman has his defined role on a top 5 offense. 

Rb5- Gordon

6-Freeman

7- Ajayi

8-Howard

 

Wouldn't fault anybody for completely reversing this order- it's that close.

 

I respect your opinion and appreciate your contributing.

 

I'd go:

Howard

Gordon

Freeman

Ajayi

 

But man, it's so close throughout.

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17 minutes ago, Ravensdan said:

 

Why do you keep sighting how Tannehill feels about things?  Lol.  He's the teams QB what's he going to say?  Hardly predictive of anything. There have been more puff pieces out of Miami than any team as it is. I like Ajayi a lot actually but this is hardly solid reasoning. He was a late 2nd round pick earlier in the offseason. All of this fluff seems to have pushed him into tge first round. Not so much a buyer there. 

 

Tannehill is going to be triggering everything.  Why would he put more pressure on himself if he doesn't have to?  There are many data points supporting Ajayi continued success, and Tannehill saying after OTAs and mini-camp that he like this offense better than any he's been in so far is data point worth noting.

 

Yes, in response to posts that lack any analysis or factual support whatsoever, you bet I will suggest that the author take note of how the leader of the offense feels about the state of the offense.  In the meantime, feel free to ignore that data point or any other.  I won't.    

Edited by Rolling Thunder
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26 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

I like Ajayi's potential a whole lot.  But....

I'd take Freeman just because I see him as a safer bet.   Atl isn't all of the sudden going to be anemic on offense just because Shanny left.  It's the same guys and Matt Ryan's progress is a big factor in it.  He may share carries but I just can't dismiss him anymore.  I've done it the last 2 seasons.   He's the main guy and Coleman has his defined role on a top 5 offense. 

Rb5- Gordon

6-Freeman

7- Ajayi

8-Howard

 

Wouldn't fault anybody for completely reversing this order- it's that close.   I think McCoy is closer to the big 3 than this group.  Barring injury he'll be right up there.

 

Why is Demarco Murray not on this list?  He's behind the best Oline. Used as the primary runner in a high volume run game. Used as a receiver and the goal line hammer. Plus their passing game is improved. 

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3 hours ago, ponza88 said:


Do you automatically dismiss everything that you hear because it contradicts what you've seen a couple times in the past?

I dismiss everything said by a player of a team because they aren't going to say anything bad.

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27 minutes ago, Rolling Thunder said:

 

Tannehill is going to be triggering everything.  Why would he put more pressure on himself if he doesn't have to?  There are many data points supporting Ajayi continued success, and Tannehill saying after OTAs and mini-camp that he like this offense better than any he's been in so far is data point worth noting.

 

Yes, in response to posts that lack any analysis or factual support whatsoever, you bet I will suggest that the author take note of how the leader of the offense feels about the state of the offense.  In the meantime, feel free to ignore that data point or any other.  I won't.    

 

I don't see how another Dolphin puff piece. A QB quote is a data point?  I don't see any value in that. I do think it's a good debate between Ajayi and Howard. But as I said all the Miami puff pieces have pushed Jay from a great value at the end of the second to the 1-2 turn. Time to ignore both of those cats for the now criminally underrated Demarco. 

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4 hours ago, joshua18 said:

 

At least reach the overall NFL average YPC, which off the top of my head is something like 4.2. That shouldn't be hard for a good RB playing with a future HOF QB that defenses still have to respect.

 

Matt Forte in his first two seasons averaged 3.6 and 3.9 ypc on 570 carries. Ypc is influenced by o-line. When the o-line can't block for you and your best Wr's are Tyrell and Inman, you have a problem. If the d-line is getting .3 yards closer to your RB that's the difference between 4.2 and 3.9. Those who always only focus on ypc usually miss out. Kind of like those who missed out on Gordon last year and those who thought Gurley's production would continue. 

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7 minutes ago, boltup15 said:

 

Matt Forte in his first two seasons averaged 3.6 and 3.9 ypc on 570 carries. Ypc is influenced by o-line. When the o-line can't block for you and your best Wr's are Tyrell and Inman, you have a problem. If the d-line is getting .3 yards closer to your RB that's the difference between 4.2 and 3.9. Those who always only focus on ypc usually miss out. Kind of like those who missed out on Gordon last year and those who thought Gurley's production would continue. 

 

What HOF QB has Forte ever played with? Apples and oranges. 

 

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11 minutes ago, boltup15 said:

 

Matt Forte in his first two seasons averaged 3.6 and 3.9 ypc on 570 carries. Ypc is influenced by o-line. When the o-line can't block for you and your best Wr's are Tyrell and Inman, you have a problem. If the d-line is getting .3 yards closer to your RB that's the difference between 4.2 and 3.9. Those who always only focus on ypc usually miss out. Kind of like those who missed out on Gordon last year and those who thought Gurley's production would continue. 

Those who get caught up in just one stat miss out. Terrible way to analyze anything.

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1 minute ago, joshua18 said:

 

What HOF QB has Forte ever played with? Apples and oranges. 

 

 

Does it make a difference when your o-line can't block for you? Point is you're obsessing over his ypc (without even acknowledging how pitiful his o-line has been) and were completely wrong on him on him last season......

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Just now, Gohawks said:

Those who get caught up in just one stat miss out. Terrible way to analyze anything.

 

It is a terrible way to analyze anything when any average stat can be influenced by a multitude of factors. You can tell the difference between those who have taken a stat class or two in their life versus not....

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56 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

Those who get caught up in just one stat miss out. Terrible way to analyze anything.

 

It's one piece of data. Certainly not to be ignored. 

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9 hours ago, Ravensdan said:

 

Why is Demarco Murray not on this list?  He's behind the best Oline. Used as the primary runner in a high volume run game. Used as a receiver and the goal line hammer. Plus their passing game is improved. 

9-Murray

still a top 10 but Henry sees more usage

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