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Jay Ajayi 2017 Outlook


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Got to love these inconsistent idiotic RW blurbs 

 

Sat, Aug 12

Jay Ajayi is still in the NFL's concussion protocol.

Advice: Ajayi got in a "limited" practice midway through last week, but he's yet to receive medical clearance to fully participate. Ajayi has now missed two full weeks of team drills. He remains one of the riskiest picks in the second round.

 

NEXT DAY...

 

Sun, Aug 13

Dolphins coach Adam Gase confirmed Jay Ajayi is no longer in the concussion protocol.

Advice: There was concern that Ajayi may have suffered a relapse of concussion symptoms after leaving Sunday's practice early but he was merely dehydrated. Ajayi is slightly behind schedule, but it shouldn't take long for the third-year workhorse to get back up to speed. Coming off a breakout season, Ajayi is locked in as an every-week RB1 in fantasy.

 

 

Edited by jstep13
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1 hour ago, jstep13 said:

Got to love these inconsistent idiotic RW blurbs 

 

Sat, Aug 12

Jay Ajayi is still in the NFL's concussion protocol.

Advice: Ajayi got in a "limited" practice midway through last week, but he's yet to receive medical clearance to fully participate. Ajayi has now missed two full weeks of team drills. He remains one of the riskiest picks in the second round.

 

NEXT DAY...

 

Sun, Aug 13

Dolphins coach Adam Gase confirmed Jay Ajayi is no longer in the concussion protocol.

Advice: There was concern that Ajayi may have suffered a relapse of concussion symptoms after leaving Sunday's practice early but he was merely dehydrated. Ajayi is slightly behind schedule, but it shouldn't take long for the third-year workhorse to get back up to speed. Coming off a breakout season, Ajayi is locked in as an every-week RB1 in fantasy.

 

 

 

I woudlnt define the blurbs as inconsistent because basically they are not.  Ajayi  could both be one of the riskiest 2nd round picks and also be locked in as an every week fantasy rb1.

 

Where I see fault in the blurbs is that both statements are catergorized as 'advice' but neither is advice. Advice is a reccommendation on a course of action so  stating he is risky and he is an every week locked in rb1 is not advice it is information or opinion but neither states what action needs to be taken going forward.

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3 minutes ago, BearDownBears said:

Any one have any thoughts from tonight?

It's the preseason so no.

 

It still stands though that he has a short track record and is very dependant on an injury prone offensive line.

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15 minutes ago, Dylanfan66 said:

Would you take him at the 9th or 12 pick?

For me neither.  I like other options at those spots.  Mid 2nd I'd consider taking him.  Maybe

 

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41 minutes ago, Dylanfan66 said:

Would you take him at the 9th or 12 pick?

 

It is been a long journey, but I've gradually warmed up to Ajayi to the point where he is my RB5, just ahead of McCoy, who I rode to good success last season.  The lens through which I view Ajayi includes his draft day resume/evaluation.  He came out of college very highly regarded by the talent evaluators that I tend to trust.  That's one of the reasons I owned Ajayi for as long as I could last season.  I ended up dumping him one week too soon.  So there is some regret coloring my current assessment as well.

 

This comment from an AFC scout whose job was to grade RBs sums it up for me:

 

"Of all the backs in this draft, Ajayi might be my favorite because he can do everything you want from a back and you don't have to find a complementary back to pick up the slack for him in any one area."

 

Now that I have seen Ajayi in action at the NFL level, I have confidence the he is a complete back.  I even believe his pass chops haven't been fully utilized yet, but that we'll see alot more from him in that department this season.

 

I also believe that Williams and Drake are there precisely to rest, not replace, Ajayi in any manner.  

 

Finally, I believe that Cutler replacing Tannehill will unlock a lot of the potential on Miami's offense.

 

For all these reasons (and more) I am less concerned about the small sample set we're dealing with than I would normally be.

 

Edited by Rolling Thunder
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2 hours ago, Rolling Thunder said:

 

It is been a long journey, but I've gradually warmed up to Ajayi 

 

 

Same. I wrote a pretty hateful post a few pages back, but changing my tone. Even in his bad game, he flashed some. The red flags are real, but so is the talent and he likely doesn't have much competition. I've also started finding red flags all over the place, as rb is literred with questions for me. Mr. 3.9 ypc and injured back-to-back years Melvin Gordon actually has the least red flags to me outside of the top-two rb's. So, I wouldn't fault anyone for taking Ajayi in the 12-15 range. I won't touch him before then (ppr - in non-ppr he gets a bump), but if he's there round 2 for me (pick 19 overall), I've warmed up to taking a stab at him. 

 

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3 hours ago, Dylanfan66 said:

Would you take him at the 9th or 12 pick?

You should be safe with the 12th pick unless a Dolphin homer reaches. I would go with a WR1 at 9 if Evans is still there.

Edited by bigbluecrew56
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Keep in mind, if Miami ends up being one of the better offenses around, Ajayi will almost certainly have a top 5 year, health permitting.  Double digit scores will be highly likely.

 

While he occupied the lead role (essentially 11 games) he churned out 16+ PPG, which was 9th right behind Freeman.  With more receps and at least a few more scores, I believe he does better than that in 2017.

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2 minutes ago, Rolling Thunder said:

Keep in mind, if Miami ends up being one of the better offenses around, Ajayi will almost certainly have a top 5 year, health permitting.  Double digit scores will be highly likely.

 

While he occupied the lead role (essentially 11 games) he churned out 16+ PPG, which was 9th right behind Freeman.  With more receps and at least a few more scores, I believe he does better than that in 2017.

With Jay Cutler at QB, I dont think thats possible (it wasnt with Tannehill either).

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2 minutes ago, yanksman said:

With Jay Cutler at QB, I dont think thats possible (it wasnt with Tannehill either).

 

Perhaps, but I'm betting Cutler has his

best year ever.  Just like Hoyer being reunited with Shanahan, I believe Cutler will improve during his second go around with Gase.

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4 minutes ago, yanksman said:

With Jay Cutler at QB, I dont think thats possible (it wasnt with Tannehill either).

 

Perhaps, but I'm betting Cutler has his

best year ever.  Just like Hoyer being reunited with Shanahan, I believe Cutler will improve during his second go around with Gase.

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35 minutes ago, Rolling Thunder said:

Keep in mind, if Miami ends up being one of the better offenses around, Ajayi will almost certainly have a top 5 year, health permitting.  Double digit scores will be highly likely.

 

While he occupied the lead role (essentially 11 games) he churned out 16+ PPG, which was 9th right behind Freeman.  With more receps and at least a few more scores, I believe he does better than that in 2017.

Keep in mind he only had more than 16+ PPG 3 times last year and their schedule is 4th worse for RB's this year according to fftoolbox.scout.com..  With that said, I still like him but I'll keep my expectations in check.  

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ay Ajayi (concussion) will start Thursday's preseason game.
In case you needed any more proof Ajayi is over his concussion. Kenyan Drake, however, is not, and will be sidelined. Aug 17 - 5:39 PM
 
I don't know what to make of this Zebra.  What is the general consensus in a 12-man PPR league?  
 
So much volume potential how do you let him slip pass the mid 2nd? 
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On 8/18/2017 at 2:50 PM, Bugs bunny said:

Keep in mind he only had more than 16+ PPG 3 4 times last year and their schedule is 4th worse for RB's this year according to fftoolbox.scout.com..  With that said, I still like him but I'll keep my expectations in check.  

 

Fixed that for you.  He started 11 weeks, had 4 weeks where he won you your game all by himself, and only had three weeks under 10 PPR fantasy points (1 of them was 9.0 points).  Here is his week-by-week fantasy production, starting in Week 6...

 

33.7

28.6

22.0

9.0

11.4

12.6

14.7

7.3

5.1

27.9

10.9

 

Unless your name is David Johnson, you're going to throw up a couple of stinkers in any given season.  But I can live with that kind of production most weeks.

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There was another back that played with an angry hard running style about ten years back for Dallas and his name was Marion Barber.  Barber just became the starter at the end of the 2007 season (because Julius Jones turned into a bust) and had an excellent 2nd half which propelled him into first round fantasy status in 2008.  I remember that because I used my first round pick on Barber in both of my leagues.  The guy was evolving into a stud.

 

The result?  Through the first two months he was solid and had about three games that were unacceptable for your first round pick.  Then November happened and he was battling through nagging injuries and his ypg dipped.  From November until the end, he had one game over 100 yards and besides a game with 30 rushing yards and a TD, he was nonexistent, including missing a key week in December at Pittsburgh. 

 

This is what scares me with Ajayi.  They both have similar styles and Ajayi has already dealt with being banged up this offseason including concussion scares.  While he'll still produce during the season, at what point does his running style hit a wall like Barber in 2008.

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