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Jay Ajayi 2017 Outlook


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On 8/30/2017 at 0:43 PM, Gohawks said:

If he is such a beast why was he so dependent on the line and also had very high inconsistency.

Because every single offensive player is dependent on the O-Line? Due to injuries to the line, Miami was one of the worst run blocking teams in the NFL in 2016. Everyone looks to be healthy now which is good news for the entire offense. 

 

Ajayi lead the league in forced missed tackles per touch and over 70% of his 1272 yards rushing last season came after contact. In other words, Ajayi is able to create his own yards because his is a great talent. If you look at the top four players in forced missed tackles last season you'll notice something (LeVeon Bell, David Johnson, LeSean McCoy, and Jay Ajayi).

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1 hour ago, munde53 said:

Because every single offensive player is dependent on the O-Line? Due to injuries to the line, Miami was one of the worst run blocking teams in the NFL in 2016. Everyone looks to be healthy now which is good news for the entire offense. 

 

Ajayi lead the league in forced missed tackles per touch and over 70% of his 1272 yards rushing last season came after contact. In other words, Ajayi is able to create his own yards because his is a great talent. If you look at the top four players in forced missed tackles last season you'll notice something (LeVeon Bell, David Johnson, LeSean McCoy, and Jay Ajayi).

Carlos Hyde and Gordon had terrible lines. Gordon was on pace to be a top 5 RB and Hyde was on pace for borderline RB1. These guys had utterly pathetic lines for all 16 games and still produced behind them. 

 

The problem is the Dolphins line was one of the worst blocking lines like you mention and Ajayi showed he had trouble producing behind it. He produced behind it when it was healthy (because when healthy the line is solid). However, the difference Pouncey makes is huge and he is quite injury prone.

 

DJ and Gordon have proven they can produce with pathetic output from the line. A lot of the other RBs are a very good threat in the receiving game with guys like Shady, Freeman, and Murray. I would take Ajayi mid to late second. First round is just too much. I don't think he will bust like I do with Jordan Howard but at the same time I also think his bust risk is too high to be going first round and at points in the second.

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7 hours ago, Holter19 said:

Am I crazy for thinking about drafting this guy #5 overall over the likes of McCoy/Gordon?  yes, probably.  but I may still do it.  Love the way this guy runs   

I'm at the same spot, and I'm 100% going Ajayi or Gordon. Having trouble deciding which one, but I've got a few days.

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10 hours ago, Fierylady said:

I'm at the same spot, and I'm 100% going Ajayi or Gordon. Having trouble deciding which one, but I've got a few days.

I ended up going with Gordon b/c I'm not sold that Ajayi will being seeing a huge uptick in targets/receptions.  ppr league.  I will probably regret it.

 

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23 minutes ago, Holter19 said:

I ended up going with Gordon b/c I'm not sold that Ajayi will being seeing a huge uptick in targets/receptions.  ppr league.  I will probably regret it.

 

what was the logic behind that assumption? Surely wasn't based on his pre season tape so I'm curious

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36 minutes ago, Joe Odam said:

what was the logic behind that assumption? Surely wasn't based on his pre season tape so I'm curious

Can't speak for him, but my reason for going Gordon over Ajayi is that I think his situation is more stable. Better defense, better QB, better weapons so the box can't be stacked (though Miami is no slouch in this area), and a coach we know loves to run the ball, due to his success in Buffalo. Basically, Gordon has a higher floor for me, though Ajayi has a higher ceiling. In the first round, I'm looking for a higher floor. My league's non-PPR, but I think they're roughly equal in PPR leagues too.

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1 hour ago, Holter19 said:

I ended up going with Gordon b/c I'm not sold that Ajayi will being seeing a huge uptick in targets/receptions.  ppr league.  I will probably regret it.

 

Can't argue with you there but I believe Ajayi is the superior talent also. 

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1 hour ago, Fierylady said:

Can't speak for him, but my reason for going Gordon over Ajayi is that I think his situation is more stable. Better defense, better QB, better weapons so the box can't be stacked (though Miami is no slouch in this area), and a coach we know loves to run the ball, due to his success in Buffalo. Basically, Gordon has a higher floor for me, though Ajayi has a higher ceiling. In the first round, I'm looking for a higher floor. My league's non-PPR, but I think they're roughly equal in PPR leagues too.

 

Don't be surprised if the Dolphins have a better offense than the chargers this season. 

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I also believe that last year we saw flashed of what Ajayi can do. This year with a healthy O-line he will finally take his game to another level and put those numbers up on a consistent basis.

 

This is if his o line can stay healthy of course.

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8 minutes ago, lbjames6 said:

 

Don't be surprised if the Dolphins have a better offense than the chargers this season. 

I won't, but right now we're trying to make our best guess, and my best guess says the Chargers will be a better offense. Not by a lot, but Cutler.

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13 minutes ago, Fierylady said:

I won't, but right now we're trying to make our best guess, and my best guess says the Chargers will be a better offense. Not by a lot, but Cutler.

 

Philip Rivers is just as much of a boneheaded gunslinger as Cutler. 

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1 minute ago, lbjames6 said:

 

Philip Rivers is just as much of a boneheaded gunslinger as Cutler. 

If you think Cutler is anywhere near Rivers your opinion on anything football holds a relevancy of absolute zero.

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1 minute ago, Gohawks said:

If you think Cutler is anywhere near Rivers your opinion on anything football holds a relevancy of absolute zero.

 

When it comes to throwing picks? Yeah they're pretty similar. I live in San Diego and watched this dude for years. Talent level of course they're not on the same level, but I wasn't referring to that. 

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13 minutes ago, lbjames6 said:

 

Philip Rivers is just as much of a boneheaded gunslinger as Cutler. 

We're talking fantasy here, and in fantasy, Cutler's peak seasons are roughly equal to Rivers's average seasons, and his bad seasons are reallly, really bad. Basically, Rivers has both a higher ceiling and floor. Then, Keenan > Parker/Landry, Ty Williams = Parker/Landry, Benjamin/Mike Williams = Stills, Henry/Gates >>> Thomas and you get the idea. I like Ajayi's talent better than Gordon, but I think Gordon's situation is far better.

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1 hour ago, Fierylady said:

...my best guess says the Chargers will be a better offense. Not by a lot, but Cutler.

 

32 minutes ago, Fierylady said:

We're talking fantasy here

 

So when you said the Chargers were a better offense than Miami... you were talking about fantasy football, not real football? :rolleyes:

 

In real football River's has been Blake Bortles bad.  In fantasy... he's been even worse.

Cutler has never been a great fantasy QB, but Alshon, Brandon Marshall, Forte, and M.Bennett never seemed to care, so I don't know what relevance it has.

Rivers actually has been a great fantasy QB before... but has failed to produce any more fantasy studs than Cutler, so again, what relevance does the fantasy worth of a QB have to do with their ability to produce fantasy relevant players around them?

 

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1 minute ago, FFCollusion said:

 

 

So when you said the Chargers were a better offense than Miami... you were talking about fantasy football, not real football? :rolleyes:

 

In real football River's has been Blake Bortles bad.  In fantasy... he's been even worse.

Cutler has never been a great fantasy QB, but Alshon, Brandon Marshall, Forte, and M.Bennett never seemed to care, so I don't know what relevance it has.

Rivers actually has been a great fantasy QB before... but has failed to produce any more fantasy studs than Cutler, so again, what relevance does the fantasy worth of a QB have to do with their ability to produce fantasy relevant players around them?

 

I was talking about both, but chose to stress the fantasy aspect of it. Whether Rivers is just as much of a boneheaded gunslinger as Cutler (a view I disagree with), he's almost always put up better numbers, both real and fantasy.

 

I absolutely can't get behind the idea that Rivers has been Blake Bortles bad at real football. He's been in the MVP discussion a few times, and he led the Chargers to the AFCCG on a torn ACL. Can you ever see Bortles doing anything like that?

 

As for them both producing fantasy relevant players, I suppose I agree. But I trust Rivers more than Cutler as both a real QB and a fantasy QB, I believe defenses will focus on stopping Ajayi rather than Cutler when facing Miami, whereas I believe Gordon won't face that problem. This whole discussion began as an Ajayi vs. Gordon debate and why we prefer one over the other, and for me, at least, their QBs play into it. Maybe not to everyone.

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12 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

 

 

So when you said the Chargers were a better offense than Miami... you were talking about fantasy football, not real football? :rolleyes:

 

In real football River's has been Blake Bortles bad.  In fantasy... he's been even worse.

Cutler has never been a great fantasy QB, but Alshon, Brandon Marshall, Forte, and M.Bennett never seemed to care, so I don't know what relevance it has.

Rivers actually has been a great fantasy QB before... but has failed to produce any more fantasy studs than Cutler, so again, what relevance does the fantasy worth of a QB have to do with their ability to produce fantasy relevant players around them?

 

Rivers is a hall of fame level qb. No idea what you're talking about here

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25 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

 

 

So when you said the Chargers were a better offense than Miami... you were talking about fantasy football, not real football? :rolleyes:

 

In real football River's has been Blake Bortles bad.  In fantasy... he's been even worse.

Cutler has never been a great fantasy QB, but Alshon, Brandon Marshall, Forte, and M.Bennett never seemed to care, so I don't know what relevance it has.

Rivers actually has been a great fantasy QB before... but has failed to produce any more fantasy studs than Cutler, so again, what relevance does the fantasy worth of a QB have to do with their ability to produce fantasy relevant players around them?

 

Is this a joke? If not, wth are you taking about?

 

Rivers has a career completion rate of near 65% and QB rating of 95 while consistently throwing over 4k yards and 30 TDs. Bortles is a full blown scrub.

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2 hours ago, lbjames6 said:

 

Don't be surprised if the Dolphins have a better offense than the chargers this season. 

 

 

Hah.  Good one. Being quarterbacked by a guy who was just chugging beers on the couch. I see the Miami offense being equal to last year's, but with the WR production shifting to Parker. Ajayi almost had 1200 yards last year for crying out loud.

 

A chargers offense last year was TOP 10 without Woodhead and Allen. And they have a hall of fame QB. 

 

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1 hour ago, FFCollusion said:

 

 

So when you said the Chargers were a better offense than Miami... you were talking about fantasy football, not real football? :rolleyes:

 

In real football River's has been Blake Bortles bad.  In fantasy... he's been even worse.

Cutler has never been a great fantasy QB, but Alshon, Brandon Marshall, Forte, and M.Bennett never seemed to care, so I don't know what relevance it has.

Rivers actually has been a great fantasy QB before... but has failed to produce any more fantasy studs than Cutler, so again, what relevance does the fantasy worth of a QB have to do with their ability to produce fantasy relevant players around them?

 

 

 

Remind us all when Rivers had a Brandon Marshall, or Alshon Jeffery at receiver?  He churned 1,000 yards out of someone like Tyrell Williams last year.  Think he's even a starter anywhere else in the league?  He produced one of the greatest RB seasons the NFL has ever seen with LT, and created a HoF'er in Gates too.  VJ is the best receiver he's had in the last 12 years.  If you're going to say that Rivers has been Blake Bortles bad, I don't even understand why there's any sense in arguing with you.  Obviously you look through a different lens than the vast majority of football analysts and people with a good sense of the game.

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1 hour ago, FFCollusion said:

 

 

So when you said the Chargers were a better offense than Miami... you were talking about fantasy football, not real football? :rolleyes:

 

In real football River's has been Blake Bortles bad.  In fantasy... he's been even worse.

Cutler has never been a great fantasy QB, but Alshon, Brandon Marshall, Forte, and M.Bennett never seemed to care, so I don't know what relevance it has.

Rivers actually has been a great fantasy QB before... but has failed to produce any more fantasy studs than Cutler, so again, what relevance does the fantasy worth of a QB have to do with their ability to produce fantasy relevant players around them?

 

notsureifserious.gif

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I assumed it was obvious, but I suppose I should have clarified for the class that I was referring to recently.  I had hoped using a QB who's only been in the league for 3 years would have eliminated the 2006 season for LT and the 2011 season for V.Jax rebuttals but, here we are.

 

If you want to talk about things that happened a decade ago as if they have any relevance to River's for 2017, be my guest.

Once upon a time Rivers was a solid QB, and he can quite possibly return to that form.  But as of today I present you this:

 

Over the last 2 years:

 

QB#1:

1,231 passing attempts

9,002 total yards

63 total TDs

34 INT

8 Pick 6's

8 NFL Wins

 

QB#2:

1,240 passing attempts

9,246 total yards

62 total TDs

34 INT

8 Pick 6's

9 NFL Wins

 

One is Bortles, One is Rivers.

How they obtained these stats is obviously in question.  Bortles is nowhere near the QB River's is when looking at their 'careers' on the whole, but "We're talking fantasy here." and in that regard, I don't give a damn about what Rivers did 5-10 years ago.  More importantly, I never said River's hasn't produced fantasy studs, I said he's failed to produce any more than Cutler has, despite being a far better QB than him.  Ergo, my point, was the quality of QB (to a degree) is irrelevant in the discussion of RB success.

 

Let me dumb that down one step further to be crystal clear, since I can already tell we're getting ready to go down some idiotic homer fanboi bull in no time.

Cutler will not effect the success of Ajayi any more or less than Rivers will effect the success of Gordon.  Therefor it's a moot point when deciding between them.

That's my point.

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2 hours ago, FFCollusion said:

I assumed it was obvious, but I suppose I should have clarified for the class that I was referring to recently.  I had hoped using a QB who's only been in the league for 3 years would have eliminated the 2006 season for LT and the 2011 season for V.Jax rebuttals but, here we are.

 

If you want to talk about things that happened a decade ago as if they have any relevance to River's for 2017, be my guest.

Once upon a time Rivers was a solid QB, and he can quite possibly return to that form.  But as of today I present you this:

 

Over the last 2 years:

 

QB#1:

1,231 passing attempts

9,002 total yards

63 total TDs

34 INT

8 Pick 6's

8 NFL Wins

 

QB#2:

1,240 passing attempts

9,246 total yards

62 total TDs

34 INT

8 Pick 6's

9 NFL Wins

 

One is Bortles, One is Rivers.

How they obtained these stats is obviously in question.  Bortles is nowhere near the QB River's is when looking at their 'careers' on the whole, but "We're talking fantasy here." and in that regard, I don't give a damn about what Rivers did 5-10 years ago.  More importantly, I never said River's hasn't produced fantasy studs, I said he's failed to produce any more than Cutler has, despite being a far better QB than him.  Ergo, my point, was the quality of QB (to a degree) is irrelevant in the discussion of RB success.

 

Let me dumb that down one step further to be crystal clear, since I can already tell we're getting ready to go down some idiotic homer fanboi bull in no time.

Cutler will not effect the success of Ajayi any more or less than Rivers will effect the success of Gordon.  Therefor it's a moot point when deciding between them.

That's my point.

 

It's almost like these people only look at boxscores and don't watch the games...

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2 hours ago, FFCollusion said:

Let me dumb that down one step further to be crystal clear, since I can already tell we're getting ready to go down some idiotic homer fanboi bull in no time.

Cutler will not effect the success of Ajayi any more or less than Rivers will effect the success of Gordon.  Therefor it's a moot point when deciding between them.

That's my point.

And I disagree. Ajayi might have a great year, but he'll have to overcome worse QB play to do it. You say the QB's play is moot, I say it isn't. It can be, as you've mentioned, but there are just as many - if not more - examples of QBs negatively effecting RB play. I don't think Cutler will hurt Ajayi much (I actually love him, I only posted in this thread to support someone thinking about picking him at #5) but I'd much rather have Rivers handing him the ball. You wouldn't, so be it, it's only opinion. I also listed more than just QB play as a reason I thought Gordon had a higher floor than Ajayi. 

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