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Jay Ajayi 2017 Outlook


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Stay the course. They haven't played at home yet. 

 

From LA to NY to London all in 3 weeks.

 

They don't have back to back away games until week 15/16 from here out out (@BUF/@KC).

 

The offense will get on track. 

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11 hours ago, MaXLacker said:

I had to do it tonight. Traded while he still had some value. I'm just not seeing it this year. The offense looks terrible and Ajayi is not being utilized like he should be. I'm in a 1 pt PPR league and there are just too many other value RBs that catch passes to even out the loss of him. Not looking back.

Who did you trade him for?

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This guy was the most overrated running back of the year.

 

Dude was trash in 11/15 games last year, and did all of his yardage in 4 games. Sell while he still has name value.

 

He had only 4 games above 100 rushing yards last year. Taking those 4 games out, the other 11 games he averaged 48 ypg and 3.4ypc.

Edited by oliminator123
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12 minutes ago, oliminator123 said:

This guy was the most overrated running back of the year.

 

Dude was trash in 11/15 games last year, and did all of his yardage in 4 games. Sell while he still has name value.

 

He had only 4 games above 100 rushing yards last year. Taking those 4 games out, the other 11 games he averaged 48 ypg and 3.4ypc.

 

He had a banged up OL much of last year. The games he did well his line was intact. Like most RBs he struggled when the blocking sucked. I'm not saying he's going to deliver elite RB1 value this year but I wouldn't write him off just yet. The Dolphins have been a trainwreck but if they can start playing like an actual NFL football team his numbers will improve.

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12 minutes ago, oliminator123 said:

This guy was the most overrated running back of the year.

 

Dude was trash in 11/15 games last year, and did all of his yardage in 4 games. Sell while he still has name value.

 

He had only 4 games above 100 rushing yards last year. Taking those 4 games out, the other 11 games he averaged 48 ypg and 3.4ypc.

 

Yet still he had those monster games that will win you the week, even if the rest of your team ***** bed. Bet on it he will have such games again just when everybody is ready to move on from their 1st round "bust".

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Just now, frog34 said:

 

Yet still he had those monster games that will win you the week, even if the rest of your team ***** bed. Bet on it he will have such games again just when everybody is ready to move on from their 1st round "bust".

If you want elite production 4 times a year and RB3 production the other 12, he's your man!

 

2 minutes ago, owenmills said:

 

He had a banged up OL much of last year. The games he did well his line was intact. Like most RBs he struggled when the blocking sucked. I'm not saying he's going to deliver elite RB1 value this year but I wouldn't write him off just yet. The Dolphins have been a trainwreck but if they can start playing like an actual NFL football team his numbers will improve.

Tannehill being gone hurts this team a lot. Ajayi was way overdrafted. Cutler is absolute garbage.

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4 minutes ago, oliminator123 said:

Tannehill being gone hurts this team a lot. Ajayi was way overdrafted. Cutler is absolute garbage.

 

That's fine, I wouldn't argue with that. Your first post insinuated you thought he was the issue though. When his OL was healthy last year he beasted out. If Cutler can play better and keep the defense honest he can do it again. I would actually buy low on Ajayi if his owner is waving the white flag. Their schedule has been weird this year with the hurricane and London game. It can only get better from here. Unfortunately people in my league don't freak out and sell their guys for cheap.

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1 minute ago, owenmills said:

 

That's fine, I wouldn't argue with that. Your first post insinuated you thought he was the issue though. When his OL was healthy last year he beasted out. If Cutler can play better and keep the defense honest he can do it again. I would actually buy low on Ajayi if his owner is waving the white flag. Their schedule has been weird this year with the hurricane and London game. It can only get better from here.

I will agree that the schedule does absolutely no help for anyone on the team, and maybe he can turn it around. But he should not have been going in the 1st round or maybe even the 2nd. I guess people saw "3 down back" written on his forehead and figured he was a steal, but after the loss of Tannehill he was doomed.

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Ajayi's not the problem.  Cutler and the offensive coordinator are.  If you watch the game, the defense seems to know exactly what is coming and they stuff ajayi.  The oc is being outsmarted and Cutler is not changing the play at the line when he should.  If that doesnt change quickly we are in big trouble witb ajayi.

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6 minutes ago, TX Babe Ruth said:

I thought Adam Gase was a genius. I'm starting to think otherwise. Three straight weeks and they haven't got their RB in the games.

 

He can prove now that he indeed is a genius by scrapping what isn't working, going back to the run game and help Cutler with play action. Gase has been calling the last 2 games as if he had Peyton Manning back there.

 

Even down a TD you can't totally give up rushing. And on 1st & goal just pound it in.

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52 minutes ago, PackerBacker555 said:

Who did you trade him for?

 

I got AJ Green in the deal. I'm much happier sitting with Green in my WR spot every week than I was with Ajayi when I'm in full PPR and there are backs that will outplay him every week.

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3 minutes ago, MaXLacker said:

 

I got AJ Green in the deal. I'm much happier sitting with Green in my WR spot every week than I was with Ajayi when I'm in full PPR and there are backs that will outplay him every week.

Wow...good deal.

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22 minutes ago, TX Babe Ruth said:

I thought Adam Gase was a genius. I'm starting to think otherwise. Three straight weeks and they haven't got their RB in the games.

 

week 2 vs. Chargers he rushed for over 100 yards and they won. just saying. 

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6 minutes ago, Marvin Suggs said:

 

week 2 vs. Chargers he rushed for over 100 yards and they won. just saying. 

 

I feel like people are forgetting this game. The London game I'm willing to discard because London games are weird. I'll admit his last couple weeks have hurt, but this is his first home game. If he has a terrible game this week then he might have to go to my bench.

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1 hour ago, oliminator123 said:

This guy was the most overrated running back of the year.

 

Dude was trash in 11/15 games last year, and did all of his yardage in 4 games. Sell while he still has name value.

 

He had only 4 games above 100 rushing yards last year. Taking those 4 games out, the other 11 games he averaged 48 ypg and 3.4ypc.

 

Fantasy RB's that succeed are the ones that score TD's.  In the end, those are the two things you chase in fantasy skill position players:

 

-Usage

-Scoring

 

Ajayi is heavily used, and has a history of scoring TD's.  Now, the fact that he's been out of the end zone for the first 3 weeks speaks more to the type of games Miami has played thus far.

 

Take a look at Jordy Nelson.  He's averaging 50 yards per game receiving so far this year.  But he's a top 5 fantasy WR right now.  Why?  Cuz he has 5 TD.

 

Usage and scoring.  Those who chase yards in fantasy, or rank players solely on yardage, are chasing largely empty stats, and it usually leads to losses.

 

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34 minutes ago, MaXLacker said:

 

I got AJ Green in the deal. I'm much happier sitting with Green in my WR spot every week than I was with Ajayi when I'm in full PPR and there are backs that will outplay him every week.

That's a nice return. I was worried you were going to say you got Mark Ingram and Cooper Kupp.

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4 minutes ago, JaNelson38 said:

 

Fantasy RB's that succeed are the ones that score TD's.  In the end, those are the two things you chase in fantasy skill position players:

 

-Usage

-Scoring

 

Ajayi is heavily used, and has a history of scoring TD's.  Now, the fact that he's been out of the end zone for the first 3 weeks speaks more to the type of games Miami has played thus far.

 

Take a look at Jordy Nelson.  He's averaging 50 yards per game receiving so far this year.  But he's a top 5 fantasy WR right now.  Why?  Cuz he has 5 TD.

 

Usage and scoring.  Those who chase yards in fantasy, or rank players solely on yardage, are chasing largely empty stats, and it usually leads to losses.

 

Please take a look at Ajayi's stats last year.He had 8 total touchdowns last year. 5 of those were in the huge games. He had 3 touchdowns in 11 games. Is that supposed to be good? And you compare him to Jordy Nelson, a known stud and touchdown king his entire career? Who scored a touchdown in all but 4 games last year?

 

What an awful comparison.

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8 minutes ago, oliminator123 said:

Please take a look at Ajayi's stats last year.He had 8 total touchdowns last year. 5 of those were in the huge games. He had 3 touchdowns in 11 games. Is that supposed to be good? And you compare him to Jordy Nelson, a known stud and touchdown king his entire career? Who scored a touchdown in all but 4 games last year?

 

What an awful comparison.

At this point, I'm just hoping Ajayi has one huge game in the near future. 

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2 minutes ago, oliminator123 said:

Please take a look at Ajayi's stats last year.He had 8 total touchdowns last year. 5 of those were in the huge games. He had 3 touchdowns in 11 games. Is that supposed to be good? And you compare him to Jordy Nelson, a known stud and touchdown king his entire career? Who scored a touchdown in all but 4 games last year?

 

What an awful comparison.

No, I said you dont chase yards in fantasy, because yards are a largely empty stat, and I used Jordy's numbers this year as an example of that.  Outside of his 5 TD's, Jordy has literally done nothing this year catching the football.  He's got 17 catches through 4 games and he's a top 5 fantasy receiver right now.

 

The reason why you start Ajayi and keep rolling with him are his usage numbers and his ability to score TD.  Cherry-picking numbers to take out a player's biggest games in order to prove some point is ridiculous...all the numbers count, no matter if they came in one game, or a stretch of games.  As far as rushing TD's go, last year his rushing TD numbers were right on par with rock-solid RB1 like Gordon, Bell, DeMarco.  And if you remember, Ajayi didnt get the lions' share of the work for the Dolphins until week 5 last year.  Ajayi averaged 20/100/1 in the 12 games he started last year.  What's wrong or "overrated" with that?

 

Ajayi is on pace for 275 carries this season and has no threat to his workload.  The people wanting to jump ship right now on him are not smart, IMO.  

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3 minutes ago, JaNelson38 said:

No, I said you dont chase yards in fantasy, because yards are a largely empty stat, and I used Jordy's numbers this year as an example of that.  Outside of his 5 TD's, Jordy has literally done nothing this year catching the football.  He's got 17 catches through 4 games and he's a top 5 fantasy receiver right now.

 

The reason why you start Ajayi and keep rolling with him are his usage numbers and his ability to score TD.  Cherry-picking numbers to take out a player's biggest games in order to prove some point is ridiculous...all the numbers count, no matter if they came in one game, or a stretch of games.  As far as rushing TD's go, last year his rushing TD numbers were right on par with rock-solid RB1 like Gordon, Bell, DeMarco.  And if you remember, Ajayi didnt get the lions' share of the work for the Dolphins until week 5 last year.  Ajayi averaged 20/100/1 in the 12 games he started last year.  What's wrong or "overrated" with that?

 

Ajayi is on pace for 275 carries this season and has no threat to his workload.  The people wanting to jump ship right now on him are not smart, IMO.  

What's wrong is you're taking an "average" and removing his 8 games of 15/40. He was the least consistent top running back from last year, and continues to prove that this year. 

 

Jordy Nelson is not a good example of that because he is a stud, year in and year out. He has a proven track record of being able to compile yards and touchdowns in every game, not just 4.

 

I am against removing big games from a players profile, but when he has nothing but big games with some awful games mixed in, you can't help but take a look.

 

Here are his stats from last year (rushing - receiving):

Week 1: 5/14/0 - 4/31

Week 2: 7/28/1 - 0/0

Week 3: 6/33/0 - 2/13

Week 4: 13/42/1 - 0/0

Week 5: 25/204/2 - 1/3

Week 6: 28/214/1 - 1/2

Week 7: 24/111/1 - 3/19

Week 8: 19/79/0 - 1/1

Week 9: 16/77/0 - 3/7

Week 10: 18/45/1 - 1/11

Week 11: 12/61/0 - 6/26

Week 12: 20/48/0 - 1/15

Week 13: 19/51/0 - 0/0

Week 14: 32/206/1 - 1/3

Week 15: 16/59/0 - 3/20

 

If you can look at these numbers and come to the conclusion that this guy is a bonified, consistent touchdown-scoring RB1 that deserved to go in the first round, props to you. But I think I can point to this season as a good signal that he is highly overrated. 6 of his touchdowns came in the first 7 weeks, and after that he was not even scoring 10 points a week. 49% of his 1,272 yards was in 3 games last year.

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10 minutes ago, oliminator123 said:

What's wrong is you're taking an "average" and removing his 8 games of 15/40. He was the least consistent top running back from last year, and continues to prove that this year. 

 

Jordy Nelson is not a good example of that because he is a stud, year in and year out. He has a proven track record of being able to compile yards and touchdowns in every game, not just 4.

 

I am against removing big games from a players profile, but when he has nothing but big games with some awful games mixed in, you can't help but take a look.

 

Here are his stats from last year (rushing - receiving):

Week 1: 5/14/0 - 4/31

Week 2: 7/28/1 - 0/0

Week 3: 6/33/0 - 2/13

Week 4: 13/42/1 - 0/0

Week 5: 25/204/2 - 1/3

Week 6: 28/214/1 - 1/2

Week 7: 24/111/1 - 3/19

Week 8: 19/79/0 - 1/1

Week 9: 16/77/0 - 3/7

Week 10: 18/45/1 - 1/11

Week 11: 12/61/0 - 6/26

Week 12: 20/48/0 - 1/15

Week 13: 19/51/0 - 0/0

Week 14: 32/206/1 - 1/3

Week 15: 16/59/0 - 3/20

 

If you can look at these numbers and come to the conclusion that this guy is a bonified, consistent touchdown-scoring RB1 that deserved to go in the first round, props to you. But I think I can point to this season as a good signal that he is highly overrated. 6 of his touchdowns came in the first 7 weeks, and after that he was not even scoring 10 points a week. 49% of his 1,272 yards was in 3 games last year.

 

 

Overrated compared to what, though?

 

How many bonafide, day-in, day-out RB1 are there in football right now?  Seven?  Eight?  You got Bell, Zeke, Freeman, Fournette, Gordon, Hunt, Shady.  That's probably the 7 true RB1's out there other than Ajayi.   Its not like this is a league chock-full of RB1's like a decade ago when you had 18 or 20 guys rushing for 1000 yards every season.  12 guys rushed for 1000 yards in 2016.  Twelve.  That's it.

 

The RB position as a whole in the NFL is an inconsistent mix, and the league is becoming more specialized by the year.  That's why things like usage and having no threat to the workload are so important.  If Ajayi gets 275 carries like he's on pace for, he's gonna be a top-6 ballcarrier in the league just on volume alone, because he's simply going to have that many chances to score TD's.

Edited by JaNelson38
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1 minute ago, JaNelson38 said:

 

 

Overrated compared to what, though?

 

How many bonafide, day-in, day-out RB1 are there in football right now?  Seven?  Eight?  You got Bell, Zeke, Freeman, Fournette, Gordon, Hunt, Shady.  That's probably the 7 true RB1's out there other than Ajayi.   Its not like this is a league chock-full of RB1's like a decade ago when you had 18 or 20 guys rushing for 1000 yards every season.

 

The RB position as a whole in the NFL is an inconsistent mix, and the league is becoming more specialized by the year.  That's why things like usage and having no threat to the workload are so important.  If Ajayi gets 275 carries like he's on pace for, he's gonna be a top-6 ballcarrier in the league just on volume alone, because he's simply going to have that many chances to score TD's.

I will agree that volume is a big deal. But on this awful offense with Cutler throwing the rock, the opportunities are not going to be there all too often. Right now he's looking at barely 1,000 yards and 0 TD's. I'm sure that touchdown number will change, but just hope he isn't Gurley 2016.

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