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Jay Ajayi 2017 Outlook


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1 minute ago, blazehound said:

 

Hard to break a tackle when the defensive line is in the backfield before you get the  rock.....

 

He had a huge hole early in the game and just fell over upon first contact. He’s pathetic 

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He actually looked bad tonight, he was running slow without his normal burst. I think it’s possibe he’s hampered with an injury. I can tell you he’s looked fine the last few weeks. His line has been bad, QBs, gase, etc etc. 

 

hes still getting good volume. He’s going to string together some good games eventually. I’d treat him as a flex with some rb1 upside kind of like amari prior to his eruption. I know this thread will be full of overreactions and trust me I’m disappointed but as owners we’re stuck with him because it makes no sense trading him. 

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5 minutes ago, lolcopter said:

 

He had a huge hole early in the game and just fell over upon first contact. He’s pathetic 

This was a bad game, for every dolphin. He’s not pathetic, he’s actually played well this season despite being a huge disappointment in FF. 

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10 hours ago, NinerLifer said:

Got a feeling he is gonna do big things tonight:  130 total yards, 1 TD

 

I fail. He didn’t look good at all tonight, though the offensive line and lack of a passing threat deserve a lot of blame as well. 

 

 

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Lol.  I have never thought AJayi was anything and was on my do not draft list.  Last years success was just not sustainable.  I never trust a guy that got half his stats in 3 games.  I have been around long enough to remember Corey Dillion on the Bengals(always finish over 1000yds with 8 to 10tds, but came from 2 or 3 games). But give me a break no RB could of performed in that game.  The line was getting blown up every play.  Balt brought two or three extra guys daring Miami to beat them in the pass game and they couldn't from the start.  Can't blame the RB for that.  Just a pitiful game all around from Miami.

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3 hours ago, drisser said:

He is Isaiah Crowell. Maybe worse.

Worse because you paid more for him than what people paid for Crowell but you are getting the same crappy production.

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Again massive overreaction. Was his fantasy output abysmal considering the touches he got? Hell yeah! Did his OL gave him any chance? Hell no! Aside from his first run, he had no room at all. Ravens sold out to stop the run and had their key cog Brandon Williams back in there, who makes them a stout run D. They knew Matt Moore wasn't gonna beat em through the air. I have concerns about Gase and his offense, but hopefully rhey use the mini bye to get their act together. Ajayi is still a RB2 on volume and due for a TD or two. Sucks for ownere who had invested a 1st or 2nd round pick, but wouldn't call him toast. He just had no chance against a tough D behind a poor OL. Won't be RB1 we hoped for, but better days are ahead!

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What a devastatingly bad draft pick he's been. I thought I had the steal of the draft getting him at 20th overall in a 10 team ppr. He's been more harmful to my team than drafting David Johnson #1 overall since I was at least able to bench Johnson and pick up replacement value off the waiver wire. Ajayi has produced at a below replacement level in 5 out of 7 weeks thus far.

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21 yards on his first carry, and 3 yards on his next 12? Wow.

 

I don't see how anyone can be complaining about his ability specifically. The defense was literally in the backfield every single time he got the ball. Either way, the fantasy result is terrible.

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On 2/23/2017 at 6:40 PM, boltup15 said:

 

Thank you for that first paragraph. That's great. 

 

Two things to look out for with regards to his average touches per game. Only 9% of his touches are receptions. Each reception for Ajayi usually grants him 1.6 points. So for his median of 20 touches 18 are rushing 2 are receiving. He gets 3 points a game from receiving a game (2 receptions and 5 years each) and 18*5ypc of 9 points rushing. So he gets 12 points a game barring TD's in ppr. 

 

Compare that to someone like Theo Riddick who had 53 receptions over 10 games. 5 receptions per game. 7 yards per reception. 1.7 points per reception*5 = 8.5 ppg from receiving.  Add in 93 carries over 10 games with a 4 ypc is 9 rushes a game plus 4 ypc. 3.6 ppg from rushing. He's getting 12 ppg from receiving and rushing. 

 

The point of this is to show how small of a difference it is between a second round pick versus a 7th round pick. Jay Ajayi doesn't give me much value over backs I can get later in the draft. 

 

If Ajayi is getting most of his points from touches that yield him .5, any drop from those 18 touches per game combined with a drop in ypc would be detrimental to his value. If he moves down to 15 touches at 4 ypc he's now averaging 9 points a game from his rushing and receiving without TD's. Now he's barily startable in ppr. Say he goes from 18 carries at 5 ypc in a more realistic scenario to 17 carries at 4 ypc as the left tackle gets hurt and his team is playing more from behind. That's now 9.8 ppg before TD's. 

 

With Ajayi you're hoping he becomes involved in the receiving game, keeps his ypc up, plays on a team that plays ahead, and gets a lot of red zone opportunities. I don't think the Dolphins are good, I think an injury to the oline would be detrimental to his value in ppr. Imagine Tannehill getting sacked over and over. Remember what happened vs the Steelers in the playoffs, 7.5 points as his ypc got reduced to 2. This is the Steelers defense that didn't have the best rush defense this season. 

 

Short Version - The downside risk risk is too great. 

 

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Thought he looked slow

 

recall one particular play he had a TON of space and got tripped up from behind because he didnt shoot through the gap quick enough, didnt show any burst or else he woulda had a huuuuge gain

 

didnt draft him anywhere just pointing out i thought he didnt look good, i always questioned him this year since he only did it for one year 

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52 minutes ago, boltup15 said:

 

Ajayi is a trash bucket. 

 

Again, 3 good games all last year and he was being drafted in the first round. Should have been drafted in the 3rd at the earliest. Everyone who drafted this loser didn't do any research.

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This guy is absolutely killing my team. He is allergic to scoring TD's and his YPC is atrocious. Biggest non-injury bust hands down. 2016 Gurley (another one of my first round pick duds) looked better than he has this season.

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5 hours ago, frog34 said:

Again massive overreaction. Was his fantasy output abysmal considering the touches he got? Hell yeah! Did his OL gave him any chance? Hell no! Aside from his first run, he had no room at all. Ravens sold out to stop the run and had their key cog Brandon Williams back in there, who makes them a stout run D. They knew Matt Moore wasn't gonna beat em through the air. I have concerns about Gase and his offense, but hopefully rhey use the mini bye to get their act together. Ajayi is still a RB2 on volume and due for a TD or two. Sucks for ownere who had invested a 1st or 2nd round pick, but wouldn't call him toast. He just had no chance against a tough D behind a poor OL. Won't be RB1 we hoped for, but better days are ahead!

Agreed 100%!  Baltimore D was VERY TOUGH last night, focusing on stopping the run.  In a better matchup he'll still have his high volume AND get some results, not too worried!  Although since I also own Collins I may play him over Ajayi some :D

 

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1 hour ago, oliminator123 said:

Ajayi is a trash bucket. 

 

Again, 3 good games all last year and he was being drafted in the first round. Should have been drafted in the 3rd at the earliest. Everyone who drafted this loser didn't do any research.

 

3rd round? He shouldn't have been drafted at all as it turned out. Still, I wish I had encountered you before I drafted this bum. You probably could have saved me from Demaryius Thomas, Cam Newton  and Ty Montgomery as well.

Edited by kaesr
typo
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