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Jay Ajayi 2017 Outlook


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5 minutes ago, grimsfield said:

 

yup...

 

Guy isn't even the lead the back. He won't get goal line touches and he's in a 3 way committee. He's a clear drop. Worst bust I've ever had playing fantasy football. Its time to face reality and see him for what he is. He's been in a bad situation all season, his situation got even worse with him going to philly. Drop him.

 

That's a bit harsh. Obviously the RBBC is less than ideal, but in 2 out of 3 games he produced despite that. His role certainly won't shrink, but grow with time. He's still just 3 weeks on their roster. Hold!

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29 minutes ago, frog34 said:

 

That's a bit harsh. Obviously the RBBC is less than ideal, but in 2 out of 3 games he produced despite that. His role certainly won't shrink, but grow with time. He's still just 3 weeks on their roster. Hold!

 

Its really not. Blount increased his workload over ajayi this week--even after fumbling a ball. Ajayi produced in 2 out of 3 games, but his carries have been scarce in every game. In short, he got lucky those first two games. This third game is the reality of the situation. Go ahead and hold if you're really that desperate, but don't expect consistent production.

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1 hour ago, grimsfield said:

 

yup...

 

Guy isn't even the lead the back. He won't get goal line touches and he's in a 3 way committee. He's a clear drop. Worst bust I've ever had playing fantasy football. Its time to face reality and see him for what he is. He's been in a bad situation all season, his situation got even worse with him going to philly. Drop him.

 

Couldn't agree more. Very little chance to score TDs and gets f all catches. Do yourself a favor and drop. 

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They had a big lead all game long, that's why they pounded Blount. In a closer game, we will see much more Ajayi. Just look at some of their closer games earlier in the season: Blount was a non-factor, and that was without Ajayi in the picture. In fact, Blount was literally a non-factor in one particular game when he put up a fat zero.

 

The Eagles are very good, but I don't see any blowouts left on their schedule. Also don't forget Ajayi arrived just 3 weeks ago. I think they will unleash him to get him rolling for their playoff run. You don't invest a 4th round pick in a veteran RB with known knee issues, if you don't plan to use him right now.

 

If Ajayi establishes a 12-15 touch floor in that offense, he is a great play in fantasy. I think 12-15 is really in the cards for him.

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The most frustrating & disappointing part is that Ajayi has been crushing it with his limited touches - 9.7 YPC on 20 carries.  If he was given his MIA usage on this great PHI offense, he'd be a top 5 ranked RB ROS.  Only guys for sure in front of him would be LeVeon & Gurley (and arguably Ingram & Kamara).  You have to like his prospects for next year if the team moves on from Blount.

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1 hour ago, daethfromabove1979 said:

 

They play NYG and Oakland in weeks 15 and 16, they will destroy them and we’ll probably see a lot of Blount, they will save Ajayi for the playoffs. 

 

Giants always play the Eagles hard, even this year. Raiders will fight for their divison with the Chiefs going into full meltdown mode. And most importantly, you better get Ajayi rolling to close out the regular season. Can't limit his usage until the playoffs and expect him to be at his peak.

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5 hours ago, psygolf said:

Running like those knees really are bone on bone.

How do you figure? He ran a 4.57 at the combine so it's not that surprising when he gets caught from behind by guys running 4.4s.

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3 hours ago, munde53 said:

How do you figure? He ran a 4.57 at the combine so it's not that surprising when he gets caught from behind by guys running 4.4s.

I figure because my eyes do not see the same runner as last year...I will be putting Mr. Polio-legs on my DND list going forward.

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6 hours ago, psygolf said:

I figure because my eyes do not see the same runner as last year...I will be putting Mr. Polio-legs on my DND list going forward.

Not sure how exactly you're seeing that but good for you. 

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@Gohawks carrying over from the Dez thread:
 

Quote

The pre-cutler thing I don't buy. He got the ball more and was a bum. He was also trash before the trade. He's just more trash now. He's a bad call and it's that simple. The amount of red flags that people avoided because of a few games was staggering.

 

How many carries you get, doesn't mean much if your QB is a bum holding the offense hostage.

Even so, I think your memory is a little hazy on the subject.

He only played 7 games with MIA, and only has over 13 carries in 4 of them.

Of those 4 games where he 'got the ball more' he rushed for 130, 122, 77, and 51.

That's an average of 95 a game or 1,520 rushing yards over a full season.

Let me rephrase, in games where Ajayi gets at least 14 carries, he's pacing 1,520 rushing yards.

In games where he gets 13 or less carries, he's pacing 819 rushing yards.

When he got the ball he was productive, when he didn't he was a bum, but you can't tell me he 'got the ball and was a bum'.

 

In the games he got the ball, he was doing just fine.  Not spectacular by any means and definitely much worse in games he didn't get the ball (3 games in which Miami scored 6 points COMBINED) But were you aware, that even after his horrible start, and even after the trade, and despite being in a committee, despite 3 games with single digit carries, that Jay Ajayi is STILL on pace to rush for over 1,000 yards this year?  A feat that only 8 other RBs in the entire game are currently on pace to do? 

 

I understand Jay Ajayi has been a disappointment, but a large part of that is biased against his price.

When you ignore what round you picked him, relative to the field, it's not as egregious.

 

It's his TDs (well TD, lol) that have really crippled him this year. The 2 byes don't help either.  But when you have ZERO carries inside the 5 yard line, and only 5 inside the 10... It's hard for me to look at those stats and say it's Ajayi's fault.

 

I know your line of thinking will be the majority next season, and I understand the frustration, but I would have no issue investing in Ajayi next year, if he's the lead back of a team.  Nothing I saw this year, made me doubt him as a player, only Miami as an organization and Cutler as a QB.  PHI blatantly said they were going to use him in a committee, that Blount was their RB, so I don't hold anything against them.

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I think he still has a chance to explode down the stretch in the fantasy playoffs. But there is also the chance the Eagles continue to spread things around and involve all 3 RBs almost equally. I think Ajayi gets stronger the more carries he gets though. As a fan I'd like to see the team lean on him more to prepare for the real playoffs. He will be crucial to winning a SB this season.

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8 minutes ago, Members_Only_76 said:

he was dropped in 1 league I'm in...

 

I dropped him in one of my leagues.  We only "have-to" play 1 rb...but we have 3 flexes.  I have Hunt, McKinnon and Mixon so there was no way I was going to take the chance and play him.  Dropped him for a back-up TE (Jenkins) to my starter Ertz. 

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45 minutes ago, cowboy5xsbs said:

Why would the Eagles change what is working?  You really think they are going oh this is working well we are blowing teams out maybe we should change it up lmao.  

 

They were blowing teams out before they traded for Ajayi, so your logic is inherently flawed.

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Just now, FFCollusion said:

 

They were blowing teams out before they traded for Ajayi, so your logic is inherently flawed.

Many like to point out it was to block Dallas from trading for him. But I also think RB was a major weakness on the offense. And given the chance to pick up a guy like Ajayi was the perfect opportunity. That had a bunch of role players at RB, but none that could carry the workload and do many of the roles well. Ajayi has the chance to be a dynamic piece to the offense down the stretch and during the real playoffs. But I concede they could continue working him along slowly for the rest of the season. He will definitely be unleashed in the real playoffs though.

 

He has had two byes this season. It wouldn't hurt them to unleash him earlier and get his role in the offense hot going into the playoffs. The team should be at its strongest at the end of the season.

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1 hour ago, devaster said:

I think he still has a chance to explode down the stretch in the fantasy playoffs. 

Crap shoot picking what game he will explode and you shoudn't gamble on a player in his situation in the playoffs.

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1 hour ago, nyda88 said:

only way ajayi becomes relevant again is if the eagles lose the next 2 games and the RBBC doesn't work out. If not, they've been steam rolling teams and haven't really been forced to change. 

 

disagree.  I think it will take an injury to Blount or Clement to give JAG Ajayi a chance to be relevant

 

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Looked better than Blount and Clement. Blount is much slower than Ajayi, and it showed against the athletic Seahawks front seven. Ajayi had much better moves and acceleration to create for himself while Blount just ran into the pile. Judging from this game, Ajayi has carved out an even timeshare with Blount. That said, Blount won't go away. They play in cold weather and won't relinquish Blount's bruising style down the stretch. Clement won't go away either, since he's clearly their prefered pass protector and no-huddle RB.

 

I'd play Ajayi over Blount and Clement each and every week from what I've seen, but low total touches remain an issue. No way I drop Ajayi, knowing he could beast in one of the league's premier offenses. He passes the eye test, but needs Blount or Clement to miss time or a change of coaching mindset after their loss.

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