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Overall Top 250 Rankings w/ Projections/Blurbs/Profiles/etc.


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1 hour ago, jfazz23 said:

fair enough.  ive also heard he always kind of toys with reporters. 

 

2 more.

 

1) ender - how much value does he lose in an OPS league.  id say its pretty significant...no?

 

2) Jonathan schoop- i thought was too low.  he basically put up a robinson cano type season last year.  decent offensive team and park as well.  cano didnt run either.  is it really as simple as you dont think Schoop can be a 280-290 hitter?  330 babip is high, but not crazy high , and his 21% k wasnt THAT bad. he also increased his walks from 3.2 to 5.2 %.  21% LD rate as well which is actually even better than some Cano years.  his soft contact was a little worse than Cano tho.  i think i like him a good deal more than Odor if you think you have SB elsewhere. 

 

I totally missed this post earlier. 

 

1 - A lot. I talk about it a bit in the Foreword, but I write for 5x5. I don't write for specific league depth, but it is strictly 5x5. Ender Inciarte derives a lot of value from BA. Even if you dont' buy into the whole volume statistics argument, his BA is above average and has been consistent with low-ish variability. In OBP or OPS he loses a good amount of value. The OBP is still good and you still get the Runs and SBs, but he's closer to a 100ish player. It's not as significant as the aforementioned Gallo, but it's pretty damn significant.

 

I'd likely prefer Gallo to Ender in OBP, and I think that's just a statement as to making sure you pay attention to who's going to be more valuable in your league, because those are players ranked numerous rounds apart. 

 

2.) Odor v. Schoop for this year, sure. Fine. Not gonna split hairs, because that is kinda splitting hairs. But in terms of Schoop in general, the point with Odor is that-- look what Odor did in 2016. Power, Speed, high average, and at a young age. Then 2017 was a disaster. Schoop's BB% went up, sure, but to one of the worst numbers still in baseball. He got more patient but didn't necessarily showcase a better eye (believe that's in the player page), but more importantly, there's just a high variability in the profile of a high-Pop-UP/Pull%, poor-plate discipline hitters. I'll believe it when he does it for a while, but not after a career year. 


I want to add to that one more factor.

 

In 2016 Schoop's line: 25 HRs, 80/80+, 1 SB,  .267 BA. 

 

Do you think it's really impossible he just goes back one year? 

 

Schoop's 2016 Player Rater Finish: 150

My 2018 Ranking: 128

 

So I am still paying for him to do more than what he did in 2016. 

 

So I believe in this big floor. This huge floor. But even if you don't-- I'm still just being conservative and only moving him up 22 spots from his 2016 finish instead of 50-70 after one good year. 

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1 minute ago, S1mcity said:

Not able to click on the Castillo player page and definietly interested in reading more about him. Anyway you could post it? 

 

I mentioned it a couple places, but this is my miscommunication -- pitcher player pages are not live yet. I haven't finished them. They'll go live in a couple days. Today I'm doing a reliever patch. Tomorrow I'll be trying to finish all the pitcher pages. 

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On 3/10/2018 at 3:00 PM, taobball said:

If anybody is concerned about not being able to find my rankings/projections, they can feel free to PM or email me at cjfreelfantasy@gmail.com and I will ensure that you get them. 

 

8 minutes ago, svtballa said:

Where are the rankings?

If only he had specifically gave direction on how to contact him for info regarding the rankings....

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23 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

I mentioned it a couple places, but this is my miscommunication -- pitcher player pages are not live yet. I haven't finished them. They'll go live in a couple days. Today I'm doing a reliever patch. Tomorrow I'll be trying to finish all the pitcher pages. 

you have Giles in the top 100...and i agree with you

 

but the  manager sort of insinuated that he may use him in the 7th if needed.

 

do you still see him as a top 5-7 RP?

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1 hour ago, jfazz23 said:

you have Giles in the top 100...and i agree with you

 

but the  manager sort of insinuated that he may use him in the 7th if needed.

 

do you still see him as a top 5-7 RP?

 

7 hours ago, taobball said:

 

Frankly-- to start-- I should have released a top 220 and said "Yo, I'll do relievers later." I knew it would be one of the shortest things, but after it took me so long to get it out I did my relievers VERY briefly, especially comparative to the rest of the rankings. I do even mention a disclaimer of it I believe in the Foreword. At this point, and it's obviously not just you, I have received a variety of emails and comments about the relievers, enough so that I'm going to spend a few extra hours tonight fully reranking them positionally and repositioning them on the overall list. (So, and this is a pure hypothetical so I'll use a ridiculous, if I were to move Brian Wilson into my #2 RP role, I'll put him in my #2 RP Role and my #whatever Overall Kimbrel (RP2) is currently at. I probably won't fully rerank players, though I do plan to do an update at some point in the next week). 

 

So I'm mostly dodging RP related questions until tomorrow. But I'll have a lot to say tomorrow. Frankly I thought I'd just be able to briefly look at it and not have many comments until I took a longer look this weekend-- but a couple of complete misses (using a handwritten list and moving over) including Rivero and Diaz have made it essential to me to fix it sooner rather than later. 

 

So, tomorrow!

 

In terms of Gallo, I mean obviously way higher. I think the easiest thing for me to say would be that, I have Gallo's OBP projection at .332 and another power hitters at .339, which makes these two players comparable lines: 

 

.339 OBP, 43 HRs, 100+ RBI, 4 SBs

.332 OBP, 44 HRs, 85 RBIs, 6 SBs

 

With one player being Khris Davis (67) and one being Joey Gallo (147). 

 

Now, KD's safety is obviously still better to me and by about a tier, but I think this does say (and I do believe in Gallo overall as a hitter who can hit .200/40) that Gallo would be a top 100 player. Maybe around the 90 ranges. 

 

Im leaning on the first half here

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Fantastic work as always.

 

So is Ozzie Albies the Jose Ramirez "lite" comparison for 2018?  Granted, Albies didn't have the sample size and success in 2017 as Ramirez did in 2016 but there seems to be similarities.

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7 minutes ago, 33legend said:

Fantastic work as always.

 

So is Ozzie Albies the Jose Ramirez "lite" comparison for 2018?  Granted, Albies didn't have the sample size and success in 2017 as Ramirez did in 2016 but there seems to be similarities.

 

In the skill-set, Inciarte is much more like Ramirez in terms of 2017 to 2018. The difference is that JoRam redefined even what I believed his power potential was and that's why making those comps is hard. 

 

What makes JoRam JoRam to me is that contact skill, so elite contact skills are guys I compare Ramirez to. Albies has the power speed but not the elite contact. He's got a good contact skill so far, but not like Ramirez's. 

 

But Albies is a great potential value to me. 15/15 .270 should be a pretty safe bet, with .290/20/20 being the upside. 

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Does your Corey Seager ranking/analysis factor in health risk/elbow issues for 2018?

 

(Loved the analysis of what a unique breed of pure hitter he is and agree wholeheartedly, I like how he didn’t walk a ton in the minors but immediately added that to his game in the majors, presumably it was always there but it was just too easy for him to hit everything in the minors)

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7 minutes ago, Weekday Warrior said:

Does your Corey Seager ranking/analysis factor in health risk/elbow issues for 2018?

 

(Loved the analysis of what a unique breed of pure hitter he is and agree wholeheartedly, I like how he didn’t walk a ton in the minors but immediately added that to his game in the majors, presumably it was always there but it was just too easy for him to hit everything in the minors)

Seager is one of a few players that I felt I was potentially not being consistent enough when calculating durability, since I do do it frequently, particularly at the high levels of drafts. 

 

I have a love AFFAIR with Corey Seager. I think he has the potential to be Joey Votto minus a few walks while playing SS, which is really just an insane player. People think the upside is low because they see this as a potential .280/30 guy but he's a potential .320/30 guy, make no mistakes about that. Now, we're going to have to see the K% improve. I thought it'd be closer to 17% than 21%. But even still, Seager has produced a now career .357 BABIP over 1413 PAs. He's an elite BABIP hitter who really has the swing type you profile as being perfect. Mentioned Ks, and I talk about Pop-Ups as free outs a lot, Seager's career pop-up% is 3.0%. Very few hitters do that (11 last season). So that limits his free-outs a bit. 

 

But I do need to do more research into the durability because I do think there's some call for a drop due to the elbow. I can't say definitively without more research how I feel or if I'm going to drop him down, but I have been feeling that Seager's elbow may be something to add an extra consideration for if/when (almost definitely when) I transition to a top 300 in a week. 

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9 hours ago, taobball said:

Seager is one of a few players that I felt I was potentially not being consistent enough when calculating durability, since I do do it frequently, particularly at the high levels of drafts. 

 

I have a love AFFAIR with Corey Seager. I think he has the potential to be Joey Votto minus a few walks while playing SS, which is really just an insane player. People think the upside is low because they see this as a potential .280/30 guy but he's a potential .320/30 guy, make no mistakes about that. Now, we're going to have to see the K% improve. I thought it'd be closer to 17% than 21%. But even still, Seager has produced a now career .357 BABIP over 1413 PAs. He's an elite BABIP hitter who really has the swing type you profile as being perfect. Mentioned Ks, and I talk about Pop-Ups as free outs a lot, Seager's career pop-up% is 3.0%. Very few hitters do that (11 last season). So that limits his free-outs a bit. 

 

But I do need to do more research into the durability because I do think there's some call for a drop due to the elbow. I can't say definitively without more research how I feel or if I'm going to drop him down, but I have been feeling that Seager's elbow may be something to add an extra consideration for if/when (almost definitely when) I transition to a top 300 in a week. 

just anFYI.  your barebones list has alex wood at both 110 and 114

 

i think you meant stroman at 114.

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Folks, we are currently working with the parties involved to come to a sound resolution.  In the meantime, please feel free to post and discuss players and rankings freely but please don’t live link at this time.  Just sit tight and we’ll get the bottom of things directly.

 

Thanks.  

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[ Greetings, baseball friends!  OK, here's the deal.  A member posted links to @taobball's rankings and Reddit discussion yesterday, along with some cheap shots aimed at the RW forums staff.  I edited out the cheap shots but retained the links, as it's perfectly fine for people to link to his work, and it's even fine for him to link to his own work as long as it's not being published on a competing site. Later on, another staff member hid that post on the basis of some prior comments from taobball that he wouldn't be linking to his rankings here.  It turns out this was a misunderstanding -- he's fine with his stuff being linked here, but has chosen not to link to them himself.

 

To be clear: the original issue here was the RW forums policy on self-promotion, and that issue has been addressed with the members involved. Members are free to link to whatever fantasy baseball resources they find interesting.  The only restrictions are when linking to content they've written themselves that's being published elsewhere.  You are free to link to tao's rankings or even his articles for other sites as long as you are not tao or the proprietor of the site(s) involved.  We're happy that folks are out there getting gigs, and are trying to be as hands-off on this stuff as site policy allows, but we had to intervene in a case where two members were routinely posting links to an outside venue they had an interest in promoting.

 

Last but not least, this entire fiasco has been kind of a headache for everyone involved.  tao has asked that people keep the discussion in this thread related to fantasy baseball, a request we expect you all to honor. ]

 

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17 hours ago, evillaw4eva said:

@taobball addressing the Domingo Santana ranking... are you projecting Braun to be starting at 1st part of the time? Or if it's with Yelich, Cain and Braun mostly in the OF, are his ABs likely to come because of anticipated injury/rest days between Braun and Cain?

 

Man. 

 

I just dont' know on that one. I might have to adjust it. I have no idea what to think. I believe in the skill-set overall, but this is also a situation where Spring Training performance actually might matter. I mean he knows he's not Yelich (arguably #1 in talent, young, huge future addition presumably), Braun (career Brewer, face of Franchise unless moved), or Cain (paid). 

 

I do think Braun gets a good number of days off potentially. He's been oft-injured so it is well defensible even for his stature. And then there's the fact that at this stage of their careers I actually think Domingo is just about as good as Braun even when healthy. Maybe I'm wrong if he does still have a .300/30/15 in there but I'm not too sure. And I do think Braun's likely to get hurt. But those are hard things to be on at the high level.

 

I wanna buy the skills here which I buy into, but I may be moving them back. 

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7 minutes ago, taobball said:

I wanna buy the skills here which I buy into, but I may be moving them back. 

 

You have Domingo projected for 17 swipes... to me that seems very aggressive, considering his 15 last year looks like a career outlier. There's always more to consider, but that number looks like it could be moved down, I'm banking on around ten in my draft prep even if that's a cop-out of a projection for Santana's steals.

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