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Overall Top 250 Rankings w/ Projections/Blurbs/Profiles/etc.


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I guess I must have missed this thread, maybe only really looking at specific players pages.

after searching google I saw a write up from reddit with depth writing and then a link back to here.

 

taobball deserves a bunch of credit for the time and effort put into these depthful write ups. much deeper than any other website/expert sites.

 

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My Overall Top 250 (First Pass) w/Projections/Blurbs/Profiles/etc.     So I just finished by blurbs for my first pass at my 2017 overall top 250 for 5x5 Roto leagues. Before I get into

finally you contribute something to this forum

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3 hours ago, mysonx3 said:

Happ beat his FIP by a ton last year. I don't usually have a problem with guys who beat their FIPs, but I'm very skeptical when it's a guy who:

1. Doesn't get a ton of flyballs/pop-ups (aka the Chris Young method of FIP-beating)

2. Doesn't have a great contact management profile (aka the Tanner Roark method of FIP-beating)

3. Doesn't have a track record of beating his FIP

What about good defense up the middle? C-2B-SS-CF Defense for the blue jays was great.. Donaldson is always solid too.  They only really had issues with the corner OF last year.  I think Pillar caught as many balls as Saunders/Bautsia combined to give you an idea of his range/impact of CF vs Corner OF

 

As a team the Blue Jays were number 2 in all of baseball in BABIP allowed(.282) after the Cubs..

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16 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

What about good defense up the middle? C-2B-SS-CF Defense for the blue jays was great.. Donaldson is always solid too.  They only really had issues with the corner OF last year.  I think Pillar caught as many balls as Saunders/Bautsia combined to give you an idea of his range/impact of CF vs Corner OF

 

As a team the Blue Jays were number 2 in all of baseball in BABIP allowed(.282) after the Cubs..

 

These are all good points. 

 

And for JA, he was the 14th ranked SP on the Rater last year and while wins definitely had a lot to do with that, if you regress him all the way down to 11 wins he's still in the top 30 SPs slotting right behind Hamels, so I do think he's a relatively safe option even baking in regression. And I'd also expect more than 11 wins.

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28 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

What about good defense up the middle? C-2B-SS-CF Defense for the blue jays was great.. Donaldson is always solid too.  They only really had issues with the corner OF last year.  I think Pillar caught as many balls as Saunders/Bautsia combined to give you an idea of his range/impact of CF vs Corner OF

 

As a team the Blue Jays were number 2 in all of baseball in BABIP allowed(.282) after the Cubs..

I don't think you can totally credit that BABIP to the defense. The Blue Jay pitching staff as a whole had some great BABIP indicators - ones that Happ doesn't share.

2nd highest IFFB%

6th highest Soft%

8th lowest LD%

 

The team BABIP was part defense, part contact management. Happ only had one part of that equation going for him (defense), yet his BABIP was 15 points lower than the team's. It just doesn't add up to me

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Just now, mysonx3 said:

I don't think you can totally credit that BABIP to the defense. The Blue Jay pitching staff as a whole had some great BABIP indicators - ones that Happ doesn't share.

2nd highest IFFB%

6th highest Soft%

8th lowest LD%

 

The team BABIP was part defense, part contact management. Happ only had one part of that equation going for him (defense), yet his BABIP was 15 points lower than the team's. It just doesn't add up to me

Could be, but simply saying that defense matters.. If it didn't, why do teams go thru the trouble of getting good defenders?

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12 minutes ago, mysonx3 said:

I don't think you can totally credit that BABIP to the defense. The Blue Jay pitching staff as a whole had some great BABIP indicators - ones that Happ doesn't share.

2nd highest IFFB%

6th highest Soft%

8th lowest LD%

 

The team BABIP was part defense, part contact management. Happ only had one part of that equation going for him (defense), yet his BABIP was 15 points lower than the team's. It just doesn't add up to me

 

Sure but I guess my point is what would you project, because WORSE than a 3.15 ERA and 20 wins is what I'd project too. I just think he'll eat enough innings with good enough ratios and I still expect him to win ball games to justify a top 60 ranking. It isn't like I'm putting him in the top 30. 

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6 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

Could be, but simply saying that defense matters.. If it didn't, why do teams go thru the trouble of getting good defenders?

Oh, I agree defense matters I just think I would expect Happ to run a higher BABIP than his teammates but instead it was lower. I'd say .290-.295 would be a good BABIP projection?

1 minute ago, taobball said:

 

Sure but I guess my point is what would you project, because WORSE than a 3.15 ERA and 20 wins is what I'd project too. I just think he'll eat enough innings with good enough ratios and I still expect him to win ball games to justify a top 60 ranking. It isn't like I'm putting him in the top 30. 

I was going to do all the math but I realized that Steamer was protecting a very similar BABIP to what I'm thinking along with K and BB rates that basically match last year, so I'll let them do some of the math for me. Based on a 20.0% K rate, a 7.6% BB rate and a .292 BABIP they project a 1.31 WHIP.

I'm a little higher on his HR prevention than Steamer, though I will note he was slightly below average at avoiding dangerous flyballs. I also think their LOB% is too low (based largely on the HRs being too high). So I'll say 75% on that, which would give him about a 3.9 ERA.

So I think 3.9 and a 1.31 WHIP are fair projections. Not sure how many wins that'd give him

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1 minute ago, mysonx3 said:

Oh, I agree defense matters I just think I would expect Happ to run a higher BABIP than his teammates but instead it was lower. I'd say .290-.295 would be a good BABIP projection?

I was going to do all the math but I realized that Steamer was protecting a very similar BABIP to what I'm thinking along with K and BB rates that basically match last year, so I'll let them do some of the math for me. Based on a 20.0% K rate, a 7.6% BB rate and a .292 BABIP they project a 1.31 WHIP.

I'm a little higher on his HR prevention than Steamer, though I will note he was slightly below average at avoiding dangerous flyballs. I also think their LOB% is too low (based largely on the HRs being too high). So I'll say 75% on that, which would give him about a 3.9 ERA.

So I think 3.9 and a 1.31 WHIP are fair projections. Not sure how many wins that'd give him

I was thinking Streamer was low on Happs projected K. Given it doesn't attempt to predict SwStr and take in account he is coming off a career high season and his 2016 K was due for slight progression, not regression... He last had a SwStr over 9 in 2012 it was matched with a 23% K rate. 

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40 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

I was thinking Streamer was low on Happs projected K. Given it doesn't attempt to predict SwStr and take in account he is coming off a career high season and his 2016 K was due for slight progression, not regression... He last had a SwStr over 9 in 2012 it was matched with a 23% K rate. 

I think the Whiff boost is counteracted (at least in part) by the CalledStrike% drop - while 2015 was a career high at 18.14%, 2016 was a career low at 16.22%

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22 minutes ago, VitorSH said:

You guys really discussing Happ?

 

I mean, it probably has more posts about him here than on his own thread (that is, if he has his own thread...)

 

Im confused is there an issue here?

 

I just think Happ will be much more towards the mid-3s than the high 3s. Think his Ks will be decent and, again, not saying he repeats top 20, just top 60.

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31 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

Im confused is there an issue here?

 

I just think Happ will be much more towards the mid-3s than the high 3s. Think his Ks will be decent and, again, not saying he repeats top 20, just top 60.

No issue at all, I'm really enjoying your rankings and effort you put into this.

 

I just see Happ as boring, like a player who won't be a difference-maker at all, so I wouldn't put too much time into an analysis of him, that's all.

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Just now, VitorSH said:

No issue at all, I'm really enjoying your rankings and effort you put into this.

 

I just see Happ as boring, like a player who won't be a difference-maker at all, so I wouldn't put too much time into an analysis of him, that's all.

 

Nah you're good I can just come off as crass even when it isn't the intention and any post made from me post 6 pm on a weekday is made from a cellular device that I'm TECHNICALLY not even allowed to be on so... sometimes I lose things in short hand.

 

i guess to me I think a lot of people are less apt to draft "boring" players like Melky or just good innings guys and for me, I take more shots on guys to carry my team both throughout the year just in waivers and to some extent earlier in drafts and I love getting bankable production later in drafts. If Happ does closer to mysonx's just below 4 ERA he's far less safe (though still not bad) than if he gets closer to the 3.50 ERA I'd project

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1 minute ago, taobball said:

 

Nah you're good I can just come off as crass even when it isn't the intention and any post made from me post 6 pm on a weekday is made from a cellular device that I'm TECHNICALLY not even allowed to be on so... sometimes I lose things in short hand.

 

i guess to me I think a lot of people are less apt to draft "boring" players like Melky or just good innings guys and for me, I take more shots on guys to carry my team both throughout the year just in waivers and to some extent earlier in drafts and I love getting bankable production later in drafts. If Happ does closer to mysonx's just below 4 ERA he's far less safe (though still not bad) than if he gets closer to the 3.50 ERA I'd project

I totally hear you. Sometimes a boring but decent player could help you more than a roll of the dice...

 

I just prefer to go for upside at that point of the draft. If a lotto ticket doesn't pan out, I just go with another hot pick up. It's that I feel baseball is so dynamic, so there's always some good players showing up every year.

 

Most of my keepers for this year were actually picked up from the waivers on previous years before they were for real, like Betts, Bryant, Springer, Turner (to be confirmed as "real") and so on.

 

So this is my personal strategy (and I feel most of others' strategy as well) to go with safety on the first, say, 10 rounds and then just go for upside all the way to the end of the draft.

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20 minutes ago, hailtoyourvictor said:

tao, have you touched on Tom Murphy?

 

I'd be more optimistic if I hadn't heard so many people believing Wolters will be the preferred option by the team. 

 

To me theres two broad strokes of thought here:

 

1.) If you don't have a catcher/two catchers, a Rockies catcher is always worth the chance. Now this is mitigated by the fact that I think he may be slated for more like 250 PAs than 450. 

 

2.) Murphy definitely has a skill set that I think becomes interesting/more interesting in Coors. So if he gets time I think it could be pretty strong results, at the least near a Russell Martin level. 

 

Ill look but the main thing is PT to me. He's as interesting as many of the later established catchers like Molina and McCann on home park and profile alone if he's getting the PT.

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hey @taobball how much would your rankings change with these categories ?

16 team rotisserie

roster is c-1B-2B-3B-SS-OF-OF-OF-UT-UT & 3SP-2RP-4P

R-HR-RBI-SB-OBP-OPS

QS-SO-S-HD-ERA-WHIP

 

in a slow draft on couch managers ... this is a reddit league. a multi-tier league called Sultans of Swat.
this is the highest level .. been in this league for three years. I was promoted to the top this year. I am a H2H guy so I am wondering what you think of my first four picks .... and if you have any hidden gems or strategies you would employ (look for) to balance my team.

 

Altuve-Braun-Verlander-Myers

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3 minutes ago, shakestreet said:

hey @taobball how much would your rankings change with these categories ?

16 team rotisserie

roster is c-1B-2B-3B-SS-OF-OF-OF-UT-UT & 3SP-2RP-4P

R-HR-RBI-SB-OBP-OPS

QS-SO-S-HD-ERA-WHIP

 

in a slow draft on couch managers ... this is a reddit league. a multi-tier league called Sultans of Swat.
this is the highest level .. been in this league for three years. I was promoted to the top this year. I am a H2H guy so I am wondering what you think of my first four picks .... and if you have any hidden gems or strategies you would employ (look for) to balance my team.

 

Altuve-Braun-Verlander-Myers

 

I mean, don't wanna start going BC.

 

I'd look at my OBP/BB+HBP% usages in my own projections, and look for players with high BB+HBP%'s that are high, I'd move up guys like Belt who don't hit a ton of homers but get a strong OPS, and in terms of catcher I'd probably want a Russell martin or a Yasmany Grandal. 

 

In terms of your current team already, it's decently balanced already, but maybe look to get a KChris Davis type before long. Crush especially in an OBP and OPS. 

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13 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

I mean, don't wanna start going BC.

 

I'd look at my OBP/BB+HBP% usages in my own projections, and look for players with high BB+HBP%'s that are high, I'd move up guys like Belt who don't hit a ton of homers but get a strong OPS, and in terms of catcher I'd probably want a Russell martin or a Yasmany Grandal. 

 

In terms of your current team already, it's decently balanced already, but maybe look to get a KChris Davis type before long. Crush especially in an OBP and OPS. 

if that is Chris Davis (O's) he went pick #50

 

what round should I be looking at Jensen/Chapman/Britten types?

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11 hours ago, shakestreet said:

if that is Chris Davis (O's) he went pick #50

 

what round should I be looking at Jensen/Chapman/Britten types?

 

I used both letters because I was talknig about both of those. But for the most part these questions are getting too inside, if you wanna know what I think make a BC thread and tag me or PM me. 

 

Anywho.

 

Decided I'm going to work on an expanded SP Rankings and updated SP Rankings this week. My current rankings have about 69 guys ranked in the top 250 and I'm looking to expand it to between 80-100. So obvioulsy going beyond the top 250. I have the following list of considerations thus far that I'm working off of, curious as to what others I could throw in:

 

Waino

Pineda

Richards

Walker

Bauer

Gonzalez

McHugh

JZimm

Guerra

Wacha

Lynn

Santana

Davies

Triggs

Hammel

Cobb
Hellickson

Norris

Musgrove

Straily

Chen

Conley

Finnegan

Liriano

Folty

Berrios

 

Let me know about other guys I should strongly consider for this update/upcoming list. 

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Charlie Morton only managed 17 innings last year before he tore his hamstring and missed the rest of the season, but he was throwing 94+ MPH and had bumped the K-rate to 27% with a 12% swinging strike rate.  Again, only 17 IP, but his FIP was 3.09 and his xFIP was 3.01.

 

Ks and ground balls are a great recipe... Astros must've seen something they liked to sign him as early as they did to a 2-year deal.  He's free, and will probably get hurt at some point, but he could be interesting in the end game for deep leagues.

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