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J.D. Martinez 2017 Outlook


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Definitely a gamble for those drafting this week with the uncertainty. Right now, I'd say that the calculation around where JD Martinez should get drafted surrounds the replacement value available in a league. For example, in a 12-team league that starts 3 OF, I think you can gamble in round 7 or so given that you know you'll get production from your 4th OF for any time JD misses. Alternatively, if its a 5-OF league, a 14 teamer or larger or there are multiple Utility spots, the replacement value is lower and thus the consequence of missed games is greater. In those larger leagues, I think rounds 9-11 are probably about right. Same range as a Desmond is going in generally.

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11 minutes ago, oswald737 said:

Definitely a gamble for those drafting this week with the uncertainty. Right now, I'd say that the calculation around where JD Martinez should get drafted surrounds the replacement value available in a league. For example, in a 12-team league that starts 3 OF, I think you can gamble in round 7 or so given that you know you'll get production from your 4th OF for any time JD misses. Alternatively, if its a 5-OF league, a 14 teamer or larger or there are multiple Utility spots, the replacement value is lower and thus the consequence of missed games is greater. In those larger leagues, I think rounds 9-11 are probably about right. Same range as a Desmond is going in generally.

yea after kemp, b ham, khrus,... jdm is on the radar

id rather gamble on jdm over eaton, jbj,cain ect

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I'll just leave this here:  Dr. Robert Anderson is the preeminent foot and ankle specialist in the country.  He's the guy all the professional athletes to go for their lower leg injuries.  The Tigers might as well have send JDM to the James Andrews of foot doctors.

 

I agree with @oswald737 above -- value depends on the level of replacement player, but I'm thinking this is a 4-6 week thing that's a small step from 4-6 months.  Sounds an awful lot like a lisfranc injury, which could be rest and rehab or could be full reconstruction surgery.

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7 hours ago, JFS179 said:

I'll just leave this here:  Dr. Robert Anderson is the preeminent foot and ankle specialist in the country.  He's the guy all the professional athletes to go for their lower leg injuries.  The Tigers might as well have send JDM to the James Andrews of foot doctors.

 

I agree with @oswald737 above -- value depends on the level of replacement player, but I'm thinking this is a 4-6 week thing that's a small step from 4-6 months.  Sounds an awful lot like a lisfranc injury, which could be rest and rehab or could be full reconstruction surgery.

Ack.  That is good to know.  It does seem like there are some abnormalities then in the testing and views that have been expressed.  You would think one of the orthos would have been able to diagnose the lisfranc fracture, but maybe it was just too swollen to get a read on it.  It will be a long wait until Friday for those of us that own him.

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10 hours ago, BigPapi44 said:

Ack.  That is good to know.  It does seem like there are some abnormalities then in the testing and views that have been expressed.  You would think one of the orthos would have been able to diagnose the lisfranc fracture, but maybe it was just too swollen to get a read on it.  It will be a long wait until Friday for those of us that own him.

 

*I AM NOT A DOCTOR*

 

In following previous lisfranc injuries (Le'Veon Bell comes to mind in his rookie year), there's definitely a spectrum of severity.  I think some heal on their own with rest and rehab, but some require surgery. Either way, lisfranc injuries are no joke.  They require a specialist to review and diagnose because of all the inter workings of the bones, ligaments, and joints.

 

Here's some additional reading: http://orthoinfo.aaos.org/topic.cfm?topic=A00162 

Quote

 

Lisfranc (midfoot) injuries result if bones in the midfoot are broken or ligaments that support the midfoot are torn. The severity of the injury can vary from simple to complex, involving many joints and bones in the midfoot.

 

A Lisfranc injury is often mistaken for a simple sprain, especially if the injury is a result of a straightforward twist and fall. However, injury to the Lisfranc joint is not a simple sprain that should be simply "walked off." It is a severe injury that may take many months to heal and may require surgery to treat.

 

 

I'm not trying to be Debbie Downer here, I just probably wouldn't personally take the risk.  The old adage is that trouble finds you in fantasy baseball - there's no need to go looking for it.

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Le'veon bell had a foot sprain scare before the season started and went on to have a great year. If you're confident in your drafting skills and your draft is before his CT scan results come out, I'd say now is the time to capitalize on drafting JD at a discount. I'm cautiously optimistic that he won't miss too much time.

Edited by Komfy
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2 hours ago, Komfy said:

Le'veon bell had a foot sprain scare before the season started and went on to have a great year. If you're confident in your drafting skills and your draft is before his CT scan results come out, I'd say now is the time to capitalize on drafting JD at a discount. I'm cautiously optimistic that he won't miss too much time.

 

Yeah - i mean depends on the price of course.  The hit rate of picks drops round-by-round of course, to where by round 10-15 you're basically going to see 1-2 guys from a typical 12-team league out-perform draft slot, 3-4 do about what's expected, and half of them under-perform.  If JDM falls to that range, he's worth a shot given you're more than likely looking at 50% hit rates anyway.  At least you know JDM rakes when healthy.

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7 minutes ago, JFS179 said:

 

Yeah - i mean depends on the price of course.  The hit rate of picks drops round-by-round of course, to where by round 10-15 you're basically going to see 1-2 guys from a typical 12-team league out-perform draft slot, 3-4 do about what's expected, and half of them under-perform.  If JDM falls to that range, he's worth a shot given you're more than likely looking at 50% hit rates anyway.  At least you know JDM rakes when healthy.

 

Where are you pulling these "hit rates" per round from?

 

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1 minute ago, jb_power said:

 

Where are you pulling these "hit rates" per round from?

 

 

Admittedly those were anecdotal, but in general I think we all vastly over-estimate our ability to pick which guys are going to break out, which guys are going to do what's expected, and which guys will fall flat on their face -- especially once we get to the double digit rounds.

 

Again, anecdotal, but here's the 10th round last year from a 5x5 roto league with a lot of forum members (several mods included):

David Ortiz - Major Hit

Addison Russell - Par

Hanley Ramirez - Major Hit (especially post-May)

Salvador Perez - Par

Kole Calhoun - Par

Ken Giles - Bust - for chunks of the year (useful at times, on your waiver wire at times in all likelihood)

Randal Grichuk - Ditto to Giles

Brian McCann - Par

Billy Burns - Bust

Byung Ho Park - Bust

Marcus Stroman - Bust (or Ditto to Giles -- righted the ship later in the year but really pissed some dudes off early)

Ben Revere - Bust

 

So that's 2 big hits (Ortiz, Russell), 4 guys performing mostly as expected (Russell, Perez, Calhoun, McCann), and 6 dudes that outright busted or grossly under-performed expectations.

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1 minute ago, JFS179 said:

 

Admittedly those were anecdotal, but in general I think we all vastly over-estimate our ability to pick which guys are going to break out, which guys are going to do what's expected, and which guys will fall flat on their face -- especially once we get to the double digit rounds.

 

Again, anecdotal, but here's the 10th round last year from a 5x5 roto league with a lot of forum members (several mods included):

David Ortiz - Major Hit

Addison Russell - Par

Hanley Ramirez - Major Hit (especially post-May)

Salvador Perez - Par

Kole Calhoun - Par

Ken Giles - Bust - for chunks of the year (useful at times, on your waiver wire at times in all likelihood)

Randal Grichuk - Ditto to Giles

Brian McCann - Par

Billy Burns - Bust

Byung Ho Park - Bust

Marcus Stroman - Bust (or Ditto to Giles -- righted the ship later in the year but really pissed some dudes off early)

Ben Revere - Bust

 

So that's 2 big hits (Ortiz, Russell), 4 guys performing mostly as expected (Russell, Perez, Calhoun, McCann), and 6 dudes that outright busted or grossly under-performed expectations.

 

 

That's what I thought

 

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13 minutes ago, to_be_quite_frank said:

Are the results of this CT Scan being sent via telegram? Carrier pigeon? What's taking so long?

I know.  It seems like in this technologically advanced day and age he could have had the results much sooner.  Unless swelling of some sort needs to subside before an accurate reading can take place. 

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2 hours ago, to_be_quite_frank said:

Are the results of this CT Scan being sent via telegram? Carrier pigeon? What's taking so long?

I don't think he's actually having done until tomorrow.  I suspect he will have the CT Scan, then the ortho will review the results with him/team.

Edited by BigPapi44
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4 hours ago, oswald737 said:

Hopefully know more tomorrow night, but its a good sign that he's walking on it and can put weight on it right now. I am encouraged that he could be back in a month or so.

 

Hope is a good thing.  Maybe the best of things.

 

Personally, walking on it doesn't mean that much to me.  The key word of the test he's having with Dr. Anderson is "Stress" CAT scan.  He's going to have to put stress on the midfoot to swing, to run, to play the field, to do pretty much anything related to baseball.  I assume they need to see the CAT scan while the foot is stressed (flexed, twisted, bent, etc. -- not just stationary.

 

Different injury, but I tore my ATF ligament in my ankle and was able to walk on it a couple days later, but ultimately needed surgery before I could put the ankle under stress (anything beyond walking).  That's with a straightforward joint ligament, and the lisfranc structure is far more complex.

 

Fingers crossed for JDM, but I'll wait for the doc to weigh in before I personally get my hopes up.    

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7 minutes ago, UberRebel said:

Is the worst case scenario him coming back in the late 2nd half? If so, that makes it easier in H2H leagues, as you really only truly need him for the playoffs.

 

So your assumption is that you've already locked down a playoff berth?

 

 

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Just now, jb_power said:

 

So your assumption is that you've already locked down a playoff berth?

 

 

 

Yes, it sounds cocky but in my league I'm confident I'll make it. What isn't certain is the luck factor that plays into the playoffs and winning a championship.

 

You want good hitters that can perform for that 1 week. Obviously, better hitters gives you a better probability of doing so. I'm ok taking a discount on injured players provided they will be healthy late in the year when truly needed.

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