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Mike Evans 2017 Season Outlook


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4 hours ago, martinjlm said:

4-1 in leagues despite Evans lack of production and future production. Everyone knew Evans would eventually suffer this year with DJAx and Howard putting more attention on getting TEs in the mix more but the consensus was it would not be an immediate impact but would make his later season value plummet. This has unfortunately been accelerated. That is why it was suggested to sell immediately not just by me but by folks who do this for a living. Which is what I’ve been trying to do but seem stuck now has his value tanked relative to his original position. The new car off the lot price plummet has occurred waaay early. 

 

His schedule is irrelevant when he’s not the single focal point any more in the offense. This is not like the old Wallace/Brown or Thomas/Sanders or Nelson/Adams or Hopkins/Fuller where both can eat. There are too many excellent mouths to feed in this offense now. 

 

All said without attacking any poster and providing factual information along with my opinion based from it. You see? It can be done politely. 

need to see pics (4-1, and you actually owning Evans) or it didn't happen.

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2 hours ago, bhawks489 said:

How come I don't see comments about Julio jones like I do mike evans? Seems like he is in the same unproductive situation as evans

AB

So much Better player

More targets

No competition 

Buy low opportunity. 

 

Next?

 

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Just now, martinjlm said:

AB

So much Better player

More targets

No competition 

Buy low opportunity. 

 

Next?

 

The only reliable statement you made right there is "More targets". AB is a beast nobody is arguing that. But he's getting the looks right now. That doesn't mean Evans and Julio don't belong in the upper Tier.

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Lot of folks either trying to buy low is all I know.  Hogan owner keeps trying to flip him for Evans.

Part of it has been the matchups.  I think after this week it should be smooth sailing, unless Winston implodes.

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3 minutes ago, joey0480 said:

Lot of folks either trying to buy low is all I know.  Hogan owner keeps trying to flip him for Evans.

Part of it has been the matchups.  I think after this week it should be smooth sailing, unless Winston implodes.

Matchups? NE has the worst pass defense in the league. The w-o-r-s-t. If he can't thrive vs NE then heaven help us.

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8 minutes ago, martinjlm said:

Hopkins

Green

Brown

Diggs

Hill

Hogan

Nelson

Adams

Hilton

Odell

Cooks

Fitz

Allen

Crabtree

Funchess

M Thomas

Bryant

Agholor

Garcon

20 - Evans

Right. I'm in a .5 ppr league too. I can copy paste the top 20. But you're conveniently leaving out the fact that Evans had a week one bye. So it feels a little insincere to say he's averaging WR20. His per game average jumps quite a few of those on the list. 

 

But that doesn't exactly jive with what you're trying to do here, I get it.

 

I don't own Evans, just fell down the rabbit hole in this thread. 

Edited by pawsmith
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6 minutes ago, pawsmith said:

Right. I'm in a .5 ppr league too. I can copy paste the top 20. But you're conveniently leaving out the fact that Evans had a week one bye. So it feels a little insincere to say he's averaging WR20. His per game average jumps quite a few of those on the list. 

 

But that doesn't exactly jive with what you're trying to do here, I get it.

 

I don't own Evans, just fell down the rabbit hole in this thread. 

Right, he doesnt own Evans either. Unlike you, he just comes in here acting like he does and spewing pessimistic things trying to ruffle peoples feathers. Thank you for your objective analysis though...

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9 minutes ago, joey0480 said:

He is #8 in terms of average in my league (PPR).  Can't base off rankings because he had his BYE week 1

Odell, Crab, M Thomas only have 4 games. Jordy missed a game and a half though he started 5. Diggs missed a whole game even tough he started. Funchess was a nobody for three games.

 

At the end of the day it all evens out. He's 20 right now.

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12 minutes ago, pawsmith said:

Right. I'm in a .5 ppr league too. I can copy paste the top 20. But you're conveniently leaving out the fact that Evans had a week one bye. So it feels a little insincere to say he's averaging WR20. His per game average jumps quite a few of those on the list. 

 

But that doesn't exactly jive with what you're trying to do here, I get it.

 

I don't own Evans, just fell down the rabbit hole in this thread. 

Some weeks he's averaged more that WR20 some weeks he averaged worse than 20 and if you go look at the standings now he is WR20. What are you not getting?

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13 minutes ago, martinjlm said:

Some weeks he's averaged more that WR20 some weeks he averaged worse than 20 and if you go look at the standings now he is WR20. What are you not getting?

That you keep saying average but then refer to a list that is total points to date? Conveniently ignoring the fact that Evans has played one game less than most on that list.

 

He's at WR12 on a per game average.

 

Is he hitting the expectations of those that drafted him? Probably not, but he's faced some tough CB's and he's 7th in targets per game (he is lower on the list of total targets, feel free to run with that too). Again, I'm not sure what your angle is here.

 

 

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5 hours ago, martinjlm said:

The takeover in full effect. 

I'm not going to go in depth here about my qualms with PFF.

 

But since this is a fantasy football forum, and because I know you like lists:

 

Sort by WR, and by last weeks point total, and let me know what you find. 

 

Desean Jackson was WR20 ( I know you'll get a kick out of that) scored 13.1 in .5ppr.

 

Green was WR1 and put up 26.4. 

 

Is Desean more valuable to my fantasy team than AJ?  Or are you cherry picking random things you find on the interwebs because they fit whatever weird narrative it is you're trying to push?

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37 minutes ago, pawsmith said:

That you keep saying average but then refer to a list that is total points to date? Conveniently ignoring the fact that Evans has played one game less than most on that list.

 

He's at WR12 on a per game average.

 

Is he hitting the expectations of those that drafted him? Probably not, but he's faced some tough CB's and he's 7th in targets per game (he is lower on the list of total targets, feel free to run with that too). Again, I'm not sure what your angle is here.

 

 

Angle? That he's a sell now before his value plummets further based on competition, schedule and current state of health? Is that an angle?

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In my league Evan is currently ranked 19th (assuming I’ve counted right) but he’s projected ranking is 9th this week.  It sounds like there is a disconnect between his actual and perceived value.

 

I think there are 2 problems.  First Evans is no longer being force fed the ball.  And, 2nd he has a QB that isn’t playing that well.  He’s 15th in QB points, and his QBR ratings are poor.

 

We can argue that he’ll get better.  His schedule going forward isn’t that bad.  But my concern is the coaches are try to force Winston to grow as a player rather than playing to his strengths.  In other words moving him from a college system to pro offense.

 

What it means is the players around Evans have become more valuable (D. Jackson & Brate) but Evans value has declined.  I think the coaches believe TB won’t be a Playoff caliber team without Winston making the transition.

 

My conclusion is Evans will have (and continue to have) a rocky year with regards to fantasy.  My recommendation is for Evans owners trade for Julio who has a better chance to return to elite form.  TY Hilton is another option in PPR...

 

Disclosure: I don’t own Evan, but I was considering trading for him while his stock was down. 

 

Also, what I haven’t accounted for is an improved running game... I think it will take away some of the pressure on Winston (so his QBR rating improves) but the negative is Winston throws less.  I’m thinking that’s a wash at the moment...

 

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