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Justin Upton 2017 outlook


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Justin Upton drove owners to the brink of dumping him during parts of last year. But he saved his season from being a disaster by slashing .307/.402/.773 with 12 homers and 27 RBI in September. Despite the maddening nature of his season a year ago, he tied a career high with 31 homers. On the downside, the now 29-year-old fanned a career-high 179 times and his .246 average was a full-season worst for him.

 

His ADP right now is in the 80s.

 

What is everyone expecting in Upton's 2nd year in Detroit?

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9 minutes ago, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

He's ranked 59 in Yahoo. I'll pass at that price. 

I think he drops into the 70s from the mocks I've done. At that price he's worth a flyer. He's seriously streaky, but his career numbers are solid enough as an OF4/5. I'd grab him in the late 60s/70s depending on my team needs, but the guy is going to it 25+HR/~10SB and is a pretty good offence. 

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1 minute ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

I think he drops into the 70s from the mocks I've done. At that price he's worth a flyer. He's seriously streaky, but his career numbers are solid enough as an OF4/5. I'd grab him in the late 60s/70s depending on my team needs, but the guy is going to it 25+HR/~10SB and is a pretty good offence. 

 

Hard to think you're getting him as a 4/5 OF in the 70s. Even in a 10-teamer, that's the 8th round. Who is drafting a 4th OF in round 8? If you are taking Upton, it's almost assuredly as a low end OF2 - mid-range OF3 IMO.

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5 minutes ago, oswald737 said:

 

Hard to think you're getting him as a 4/5 OF in the 70s. Even in a 10-teamer, that's the 8th round. Who is drafting a 4th OF in round 8? If you are taking Upton, it's almost assuredly as a low end OF2 - mid-range OF3 IMO.

The 3 drafts I've done on Yahoo (3 is nothing, really) had him as OF4 and was taken in the low 70s. But yeah, I get what you're saying. Even then, how many OFs can put up a line of 25-30HE, 80-90R, 80-100RBI, and hit ~.265? The guy also stole 19 bases in 2015, so the speed fall off last year can likely be ignored a little (he's only 29).

Dude had a bad year, but between 2013 and 2015 he was looking solid: 1666AB, 82HR, 256R, 253RBI, 35SB, .262/.344/.470 with a .814OPS

Not gaudy numbers, but I'd take it.

2016 also saw his lowest OPS ever, and the move to the ballpark I'm sure didn't help... Plus the massive contract... Plus everyone, everywhere, always wondering when he'd "put it all together" and the high hopes of him being a perennial MVP, yaddah yaddah yaddah...

 

He is who he is, which is 25+HR/90R/90RBI/.260-.270 average. Solid, unspectacular numbers. Kills you in H2H, can be incredible in Roto leagues.

Edited by BlueJaysIn2030
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8 minutes ago, oswald737 said:

6th round (12 teamer) is where I think he starts to return good value. Upton is a good piece if you go speed early as an OF2/3. I think the league change affected him a lot early, but he adjusted and started to perform a lot better.

 

Completely agree with this.  If you just cut out April (the sharpest adjustment, one would think), Upton hit .251/.323/.493 with 29 HRs and 9 SBs over 132 games (by my count) with 71 Rs and 79 RBI.  That's actually a bit better power pace than his Atlanta and SD days, and the speed is slightly better than his Atlanta days.  His HRs actually tied a career high, and he only hit 2 in April. 

 

Totally plausible he was adjusting given he'd never played in the AL before, aside from interleague games.  At just 29, I think there's a lot of value in this stick.

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5 minutes ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

The 3 drafts I've done on Yahoo (3 is nothing, really) had him as OF4 and was taken in the low 70s. But yeah, I get what you're saying. Even then, how many OFs can put up a line of 25-30HE, 80-90R, 80-100RBI, and hit ~.265? The guy also stole 19 bases in 2015, so the speed fall off last year can likely be ignored a little (he's only 29).

Dude had a bad year, but between 2013 and 2015 he was looking solid: 1666AB, 82HR, 256R, 253RBI, 35SB, .262/.344/.470 with a .814OPS

Not gaudy numbers, but I'd take it.

2016 also saw his lowest OPS ever, and the move to the ballpark I'm sure didn't help... Plus the massive contract... Plus everyone, everywhere, always wondering when he'd "put it all together" and the high hopes of him being a perennial MVP, yaddah yaddah yaddah...

 

He is who he is, which is 25+HR/90R/90RBI/.260-.270 average. Solid, unspectacular numbers. Kills you in H2H, can be incredible in Roto leagues.

 

This exact perception is what's driving the value.  Everyone thinks he had a bad year.  Upton hit .005 points lower than he did as a Padre.  He hit 5 more HRs than he did as a Padre.  He scored 4 fewer runs and had 6 more RBI.  The biggest fall off was in SB with 10 less than in SD, BUT he only stole 8 and 8 in his two years in Atlanta, so the 19 as a Padre may just be the outlier.  His 9 from last year exactly mirror his Atlanta days.

 

He's streaky, sure... and he had a bad April, but on the whole, Justin Upton was exactly who we thought he was.

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so what's the difference between a streaky Justin Upton and a streaky Jay Bruce going a 100+ picks later.

 

Granted Upton is a tad better in BAvg and SBs but I'm not seeing a big diff in overall production.

 

Someone enlighten me on why Upton is worth taking 100+ picks before Bruce.

 

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1 minute ago, jb_power said:

so what's the difference between a streaky Justin Upton and a streaky Jay Bruce going a 100+ picks later.

 

Granted Upton is a tad better in BAvg and SBs but I'm not seeing a big diff in overall production.

 

Someone enlighten me on why Upton is worth taking 100+ picks before Bruce.

 

 

Bruce really sucks.

 

Bruce has one good streak in three years now. If that's streaky to you... I guess... but to me Upton's year end stats are almost always consistent. 

 

Tad better in BA is somewhat true, but I consider Bruce's range at this stage to be .220-.250 and uptons range of a similar size to be .245-.275. And if I had to predict one to beat out their range positively, I'd take Upton to hit over .275 moreso than I'd take Bruce to hit over .250. 

 

Steals are a big proponent. Bruce has stopped running. Upton always chips in 8 and sometimes threatens 20. 

 

Bruce's OBP over the last few years have ranged from .281-.309, Upton's from .310-.342, so he should win in R production.

 

Upton's more likely going to win in RBI production too. 

 

I also trust Upton more and think that Jay Bruce is in a place where if he doesn't hit a hot streak at this point... he may get benched. That's not a fear I have with Upton. I do think that's somewhat realistic with Jay. 

 

But the BA range alone combined with the steals I think puts it pretty solidly in Upton's corner. And my best explanations for each of their bad parts of last year obviously favor JUp, as Upton's situation is unlikely to repeat (league change) and Bruce's (Lack of outer third) is something that he's dealt with for 2.5 years of the past three now with very little signs of changing. 

 

I guess if you believe .250 is who JUp is at this point of his career, I can see your point (and even then I'm going to give him R/RBI/SB/BA), but I think his able range for BA goes quite a bit higher. He has one bad BABIP year and a league change year and those two are still right around the best BA Bruce has had in his last three. Upton hitting .280 wouldn't surprise me. Jay Bruce hitting .260 wouldl surprise me quite a bit at this stage. 


I'm completely completely out on Bruce. I don't even think I love Jup that much. 

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10 minutes ago, jb_power said:

so what's the difference between a streaky Justin Upton and a streaky Jay Bruce going a 100+ picks later.

 

Granted Upton is a tad better in BAvg and SBs but I'm not seeing a big diff in overall production.

 

Someone enlighten me on why Upton is worth taking 100+ picks before Bruce.

 

 

Bruce is on a less dynamic offensive team (Det 11th in Runs Scored; Mets were 26th) and he may not have a fulltime job (Cespedes (R), Granderson(L), Conforto (L), Nimmo (R), Lagares (R)).

 

Last year was the best year that Bruce has had in his last 3 and it was Upton's worst year in his last 3.

 

After being traded from the Reds to the Mets (leaving GABP for Citi Field), he slashed .219/.294/.391.

 

As noted above, Upton improved considerably over the second half of the season.

 

I don't think the comparison between Bruce and Upton is even close. Bruce is so bad defensively that he's going to need to dramatically outhit Conforto and Granderson to even play a lot. Alternatively, he may need to displace Duda/Wright at 1B.

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12 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

Bruce really sucks.

 

Bruce has one good streak in three years now. If that's streaky to you... I guess... but to me Upton's year end stats are almost always consistent. 

 

Tad better in BA is somewhat true, but I consider Bruce's range at this stage to be .220-.250 and uptons range of a similar size to be .245-.275. And if I had to predict one to beat out their range positively, I'd take Upton to hit over .275 moreso than I'd take Bruce to hit over .250. 

 

Steals are a big proponent. Bruce has stopped running. Upton always chips in 8 and sometimes threatens 20. 

 

Bruce's OBP over the last few years have ranged from .281-.309, Upton's from .310-.342, so he should win in R production.

 

Upton's more likely going to win in RBI production too. 

 

I also trust Upton more and think that Jay Bruce is in a place where if he doesn't hit a hot streak at this point... he may get benched. That's not a fear I have with Upton. I do think that's somewhat realistic with Jay. 

 

But the BA range alone combined with the steals I think puts it pretty solidly in Upton's corner. And my best explanations for each of their bad parts of last year obviously favor JUp, as Upton's situation is unlikely to repeat (league change) and Bruce's (Lack of outer third) is something that he's dealt with for 2.5 years of the past three now with very little signs of changing. 

 

I guess if you believe .250 is who JUp is at this point of his career, I can see your point (and even then I'm going to give him R/RBI/SB/BA), but I think his able range for BA goes quite a bit higher. He has one bad BABIP year and a league change year and those two are still right around the best BA Bruce has had in his last three. Upton hitting .280 wouldn't surprise me. Jay Bruce hitting .260 wouldl surprise me quite a bit at this stage. 


I'm completely completely out on Bruce. I don't even think I love Jup that much. 

 

Your first comment was exactly what I was going to say. 

 

Jay Bruce has two consecutive years prior to 2016 where he hit sub-.226 over ~1200 ABs.

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27 minutes ago, JFS179 said:

 

This exact perception is what's driving the value.  Everyone thinks he had a bad year.  Upton hit .005 points lower than he did as a Padre.  He hit 5 more HRs than he did as a Padre.  He scored 4 fewer runs and had 6 more RBI.  The biggest fall off was in SB with 10 less than in SD, BUT he only stole 8 and 8 in his two years in Atlanta, so the 19 as a Padre may just be the outlier.  His 9 from last year exactly mirror his Atlanta days.

 

He's streaky, sure... and he had a bad April, but on the whole, Justin Upton was exactly who we thought he was.

But he did have a bad year. His numbers were awful for 90% of the season.

So you're saying his SB being at 19 with Padres is the outlier, but his BA the years outside of a Padre are not? 

 

Who are you saying he is, exactly? The guy in Atlanta? Or what his career numbers are?

I would 100% buy Justin Upton in Atlanta in Detroit. 1124AB, 56HR, 171R, 172RBI, 16SB with a .267/.348/.478 line is solid, and that was with a bad team. Detroit is good. 

Heck, even his career numbers are solid enough for me to buy: .268/.347/.472 is fine with me. The guy is 29, he's not 39. MLB players rarely have all of their skills evaporate overnight, which is what people are thinking here. 

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1 minute ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

But he did have a bad year. His numbers were awful for 90% of the season.

So you're saying his SB being at 19 with Padres is the outlier, but his BA the years outside of a Padre are not? 

 

Who are you saying he is, exactly? The guy in Atlanta? Or what his career numbers are?

I would 100% buy Justin Upton in Atlanta in Detroit. 1124AB, 56HR, 171R, 172RBI, 16SB with a .267/.348/.478 line is solid, and that was with a bad team. Detroit is good. 

Heck, even his career numbers are solid enough for me to buy: .268/.347/.472 is fine with me. The guy is 29, he's not 39. MLB players rarely have all of their skills evaporate overnight, which is what people are thinking here. 

 

Maybe this is a roto vs. H2H thing, but honestly with a guy as streaky as Upton, you knew what you were getting into in H2H if that is the case.  In roto, not sure how you complain about a .246/.310/.465 line with 31 HRs, 87 RBI, 81 Rs, and 9 SBs.  His numbers were most certainly not "awful for 90% of the season."  Not even close... he switched leagues, faced new pitchers, felt the pressure of a giant contract - these things happen.  There are fantasy pundits who repeatedly say to avoid guys in the first year of a new deal... because of situations like Upton's.

 

My first post was about his numbers if you took out April for the league adjustment... in reality, if you look at April and May as getting used to the AL pitchers, getting used to Detroit, etc., he was vintage Justin Upton the rest of the way, complete with a cold streak in August before a massive September.

 

April/May ("The Adjustment Phase") --  .217/.264/.326 with 3 HRs, 11 RBI, 22 Rs, 1 SB (197 PAs)

Jun-Oct ("The Vintage Phase") -- .259/.331/.531 with 28 HRs, 76 RBI, 59 Rs, 8 SBs (429 PAs)

 

If you take the Jun-Oct line and run it over a full season of ABs (~625 PAs each of the last 2 years) -- you get 41 bombs, 111 RBI, 86 Rs, and 11ish SBs.  There's the ceiling...

 

I don't know how that's awful for 90% of the year.  I'll givey ou 30%, but not 90%.

 

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12 minutes ago, Members_Only_76 said:

He's been on teams in warm weather until last year, he's adjusting to Detroit's spring weather LOL

 

Very well may be part of it too... Detroit, Chicago, Minnesota, KC, all the AL East teams in the NE... he's not used to that having spent his entire career playing in Arizona, Atlanta, and SD prior to that.

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So everyone knows that Jay Bruce had 2 poor seasons in 2014 and 2015.

 

Over the last 4 seasons Bruce has averaged:

27 HRs

77 Runs

90 RBI

8 SBs

.240 BAvg

 

Over the last 4 seasons Upton has averaged:

28 HRs

84 Runs

85 RBI

11 SBs

.257 BAvg

 

I'm in the small minority here that thinks Justin Upton IS NOT worth 100+ picks more than Jay Bruce ... and I'm OK with that.

 

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8 minutes ago, jb_power said:

So everyone knows that Jay Bruce had 2 poor seasons in 2014 and 2015.

 

Over the last 4 seasons Bruce has averaged:

27 HRs

77 Runs

90 RBI

8 SBs

.240 BAvg

 

Over the last 4 seasons Upton has averaged:

28 HRs

84 Runs

85 RBI

11 SBs

.257 BAvg

 

I'm in the small minority here that thinks Justin Upton IS NOT worth 100+ picks more than Jay Bruce ... and I'm OK with that.

 

 

A few of those stats ignore trends though. I think JUp is far more likely to steal 11 than Bruce is to steal 8, and I don't think it'sjust two poor seasons... I just think if you're going to call Bruce streaky he needs to have more than one hot streak in three years. 

 

Are you not at all worried about playing time as well? 

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^

 

All of those stats are surface stats so YEAH they totally ignore all trends.

 

Not concerned about playing time.  

 

My first post on this comp stated that Upton has a slight edge on Bruce in BAvg and SBs so I'm well aware of it.  Doesn't change my opinion that Upton is worth using a pick 100+ sooner than a pick on Bruce.

 

I'm just fine with you proclaiming Jay Bruce sucks.  I really am.  

 

Edited by jb_power
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18 minutes ago, jb_power said:

^

 

All of those stats are surface stats so YEAH they totally ignore all trends.

 

Not concerned about playing time.  

 

My first post on this comp stated that Upton has a slight edge on Bruce in BAvg and SBs so I'm well aware of it.  Doesn't change my opinion that Upton is worth using a pick 100+ sooner than a pick on Bruce.

 

I'm just fine with you proclaiming Jay Bruce sucks.  I really am.  

 

 

And I get that. I just don't think it's a "slight edge" in BA when the pitfall for Bruce is .220 and the worst it seems you're getting out of upton is .250 and that comparison just isn't slight to me is all

Edited by taobball
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47 minutes ago, JFS179 said:

 

April/May ("The Adjustment Phase") --  .217/.264/.326 with 3 HRs, 11 RBI, 22 Rs, 1 SB (197 PAs)

Jun-Oct ("The Vintage Phase") -- .259/.331/.531 with 28 HRs, 76 RBI, 59 Rs, 8 SBs (429 PAs)

 

This is a bit misleading.  I owned Upton all of last season, and while April and May were his worst months, June through August was no picnic either.  He was cold more often than not even in those months.  Each month was three weeks of crap with a hot week to pull up the overall numbers.  Just look through last season's outlook page.  Now September is when he really heated up.  Upton wasn't just streaky last season.  He was streaky by his standards.  Fine for ROTO, but terrible for H2H.  

 

FWIW, I do think he'll be less volatile this season, but only because I don't think last year's volatility can be repeated.  

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5 minutes ago, phillyphan21 said:

 

This is a bit misleading.  I owned Upton all of last season, and while April and May were his worst months, June through August was no picnic either.  He was cold more often than not even in those months.  Each month was three weeks of crap with a hot week to pull up the overall numbers.  Just look through last season's outlook page.  Now September is when he really heated up.  Upton wasn't just streaky last season.  He was streaky by his standards.  Fine for ROTO, but terrible for H2H.  

 

FWIW, I do think he'll be less volatile this season, but only because I don't think last year's volatility can be repeated.  

 

June- .245/5 HR/23 RBI

July- .278/5 HR/12 RBI

 

Then a bad August (.223/5 HR) before his huge Sep/Oct. 

 

I mean, I think this is the definition of "vintage Justin Upton." It's what he's always been. Minus April & May. 

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10 minutes ago, phillyphan21 said:

 

This is a bit misleading.  I owned Upton all of last season, and while April and May were his worst months, June through August was no picnic either.  He was cold more often than not even in those months.  Each month was three weeks of crap with a hot week to pull up the overall numbers.  Just look through last season's outlook page.  Now September is when he really heated up.  Upton wasn't just streaky last season.  He was streaky by his standards.  Fine for ROTO, but terrible for H2H.  

 

FWIW, I do think he'll be less volatile this season, but only because I don't think last year's volatility can be repeated.  

 

This is nothing new -- this is Justin Upton.  The numbers will be there in the end.  In H2H you know what you're getting into...

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