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Aaron Judge 2017 Outlook


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David Ortiz's verdict is in: 

“Look at Judge,” David Ortiz said Monday night with the Yankees’ right fielder standing nearby. “Look at him. That’s scary, man. That’s the scariest thing I’ve ever seen. A guy that big that can hit like that, that’s special.”

Ortiz can relate to Judge’s prolific power, but not to the Yankee rookie’s size. And the retired Red Sox slugger thinks the best is still in front of Judge.

“To be honest with you, with the strike zone for a guy his size, I believe even though he’s so good, he’s gonna get better,” Ortiz said at a fundraiser for CC Sabathia’s PitCChIn Foundation, which reaches out to inner-city children in the New York area, as well as Sabathia’s native Northern California.

“When you’re that tall, the strike zone is bigger,” Ortiz said of the 6-foot-7 Judge. “And then you watch him hit and he doesn’t chase bad pitches. That’s special. God bless him. He’s fun to watch. What a beast.”

 

http://www.sportingnews.com/mlb/news/david-ortiz-big-papi-aaron-judge-red-sox-yankees-new-york-cc-sabathia-new-york-post/104b1vz727wrg1q5qv1laehw82

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Sooooo this confirms something I've noticed watching every game.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/umpires-are-having-some-trouble-with-aaron-judge/

"At least at this point in Judge’s career, umpires are having trouble calling a correct zone on him. Judge would perhaps be even better, he would be in more hitter’s counts, getting more elevated pitches, if he were facing an accurately called strike zone."

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4 hours ago, DannyMcPot said:

Sooooo this confirms something I've noticed watching every game.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/umpires-are-having-some-trouble-with-aaron-judge/

"At least at this point in Judge’s career, umpires are having trouble calling a correct zone on him. Judge would perhaps be even better, he would be in more hitter’s counts, getting more elevated pitches, if he were facing an accurately called strike zone."

Hopefully they will get the technology for automated balls and strikes dialed in one day.  Umps are ruining the game with the enormous amount of ball and strike calls they miss. 

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On 6/3/2017 at 4:55 PM, lavaman said:

I cannot remember a rookie this good, except for Trout. But was Trout THIS good??

Bellinger this year is a close second as far as rookies are concerned.

 

Seriously? The Bellinger part, I mean. Sure, his power has been unreal, but even with all those homers, he's still "only" slugging .547, which is something to say for a guy on pace for ~48 homers.


Ryan Braun (23) slugged .634 as a rookie in 113 games, batted .324 with 34 homers and 15 steals. 

Albert Pujols (21) slugged .610 as a rookie in 161 games, batted .329 with 37 homers. 

Evan Longoria (22) slugged .531 as a rookie in 122 games, batted .272 with 27 homers and 7 steals. 
Joey Votto (24) slugged .506 as a rookie in 151 games, batted .297 with 24 homers and 7 steals. Had a .321/.360/.548 slash line in his debut season (24 games). 

Corey Seager (22) slugged .512 as a rookie in 157 games, batted .308 with 26 homers. 

 

Point being, what Bellinger is doing is impressive HR wise, but that's about it. Plenty of rookies have been "THIS good." Sanchez last year whacked 20 HR in 53 games, which is a much higher rate than Belly is showing. He also batted .299 to go with it and had a better K and BB rate. 

 

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There's this deep seeded feeling that I should try and sell him while he's on his game like this. Nothing really to base it off of, he's been fantastic and I love his approach at the plate. It'll be interesting to see how he adjusts as pitchers do. That is going to be what really confirms it for me. But I'm a fan. I was thinking of offering him and Archer to the Trout owner just to see if he'll waiver with that 8 week DL stint. 

Edited by FinalProphet
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9 hours ago, sngehl01 said:

 

Seriously? The Bellinger part, I mean. Sure, his power has been unreal, but even with all those homers, he's still "only" slugging .547, which is something to say for a guy on pace for ~48 homers.


Ryan Braun (23) slugged .634 as a rookie in 113 games, batted .324 with 34 homers and 15 steals. 

Albert Pujols (21) slugged .610 as a rookie in 161 games, batted .329 with 37 homers. 

Evan Longoria (22) slugged .531 as a rookie in 122 games, batted .272 with 27 homers and 7 steals. 
Joey Votto (24) slugged .506 as a rookie in 151 games, batted .297 with 24 homers and 7 steals. Had a .321/.360/.548 slash line in his debut season (24 games). 

Corey Seager (22) slugged .512 as a rookie in 157 games, batted .308 with 26 homers. 

 

Point being, what Bellinger is doing is impressive HR wise, but that's about it. Plenty of rookies have been "THIS good." Sanchez last year whacked 20 HR in 53 games, which is a much higher rate than Belly is showing. He also batted .299 to go with it and had a better K and BB rate. 

 

Doesn't everyone love the long-ball?

Yeah Sanchez last year kicked butt.

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51 minutes ago, DannyMcPot said:

I'd wear a full suit of armor pitching to him. Seriously, he's going to kill someone. Almost gave Jumbo Diaz the death sentence. 

 

His obscene amount of body fat would have absorbed the blow, but I know what you mean. Unparalleled power.

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Regardless of what place your in, if you own Judge I think it has too hurt a bit less even if your losing.  Mr. Judge is having a historic season and it's just a damn beautiful thing. 

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Aaron Judge started leading the league in WAR by baseball reference's formula a few days ago, but today also leads in WAR using Fangraphs's formula. He's got 38 more PA than Trout, has not been as good offensively, but has been better defensively.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

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I went to the game last night (first time seeing judge in person) and let me say that when he hits a ball it's just a complete and total missile. It just leaves the bat and you have to take a step back and just go "wow." He's just such an incredible athlete I love watching him play and as a Yankees fan he makes me feel all warm and fuzzy inside.

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10 hours ago, DannyMcPot said:

I'd wear a full suit of armor pitching to him. Seriously, he's going to kill someone. Almost gave Jumbo Diaz the death sentence. 

 

Interesting observation. I wonder if that will affect how pitchers approach Judge. That is to say, pitchers will pitch around him not because they're worried about balls leaving the yard, but because they fear for their own health!

Edited by My Dinner With Andre
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34 minutes ago, My Dinner With Andre said:

 

Interesting observation. I wonder if that will affect how pitchers approach Judge. That is to say, pitchers will pitch around him not because they're worried about balls leaving the yard, but because they fear for their own health!

 

I don't know which it was, but last night Tillman walked him on the most predictable 4-pitch walk ever in Judge's 2nd AB, then threw four more in a row to Holliday, then three more in a row to Castro, and on the next strike...3-run HR.  I think Judge deserves some of the credit for all of that.

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