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Aaron Judge 2017 Outlook


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I wouldn't worry too much about where he hits in the order at the outset. The Yankees lineup from 5-9 is makeshift enough that if he puts together a few good games he'll be bumped up in no time. For example- Jacoby Ellsbury is currently expected to hit 5th in the order.  

 

 

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I picked this guy up as a 4th OF to start the season, just to have a lottery ticket.  There was a pretty intriguing piece at Fangraphs about how hard he's been working on his plate coverage this winter, and he already has the otherworldly power.  

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/aaron-judge-has-found-the-right-track/

 

If he's on your fantasy bench in April, it makes all the sense in the world.  If he's a starter for you from day one, then you probably should have planned better.

Edited by Turkey Burgers
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2 hours ago, Call me Red said:

I want to pick him up but not sure who to drop. His ceiling is high, yes, but batting 8th is awful for fantasy value.

Yes, but you can't have expect to have 1-4 batters throughout your line-up. Some of those player will have to be batters hitting lower, or even platoon players that have the ability add value later in the season. It's a smorgasbord!

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16 minutes ago, kidtwentytwo said:

Batting 8th tonight 

again....wouldnt worry.  he will probably hit there to start the year.  if hes getting on base and hitting Dingers, hell be hitting 5th or 6th in no time....maybe even cleanup on days sanchez/holiday have off.

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3 hours ago, jfazz23 said:

... if hes getting on base and hitting Dingers, hell be hitting 5th or 6th in no time....maybe even cleanup...

... and if he grows wings he'll be Bird ;)

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Grabbed this guy as a reserve outfielder in a league where I somehow ended up with Villar and Billy Hamilton (so I'm feeling good about my speed, not as much about my power). I basically wanted some power upside, and Judge obviously has it. The big flaw is contact. Though personally I feel people are overstating his time in the majors last year. It was bad, but it was less than 100 plate appearances and seemed more about a rookie struggling then some fatal flaw. Yes, striking out over 40% of the time (like he did in his brief MLB run) is untenable. But his minor league rates are more around 25%, which are actually better than someone like Gallo or even George Springer. And on par with someone like Miguel Sano. So it's not like he can't succeed. He has to adjust and hitter better than 2016 version of himself. But I don't think its unreasonable. And the great thing about him, either he reigns in those Ks and is a viable player or he doesn't in which case you should know pretty quickly.

 

Everything else about his situation seems pretty good. Decent team. Nice home ballpark. Potential to move up the line-up if he succeeds. So its a risk, but one with a decent payoff.

Edited by Jericho
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This guy is MURDERING the baseball right now. 

 

He has 3 of the 4 hardest hit balls by Yankees since 2015... in the last week. And that's before I've even checked on the bomb he just crushed into Monument Park. 

 

 

Edited by absknicks
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I'm watching the game, he was even jammed a bit on that HR. Hit it 440 ft to dead center anyway. Unreal power. His ABs have looked waaaaay better too. Taking the right pitches, but being aggressive in the zone. Being a Yankee fan and dynasty owner, I'm very encouraged.

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I'd really try to find a way to roster him.  80-grade power is rare, as is the potential to get free HR production off the waiver wire.  Speed is easier to find, but when you see a guy slugging like Judge has come out of the gate doing you have to pounce.

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5 minutes ago, Sun Tzu said:

I'd really try to find a way to roster him.  80-grade power is rare, as is the potential to get free HR production off the waiver wire.  Speed is easier to find, but when you see a guy slugging like Judge has come out of the gate doing you have to pounce.

Dude went for 10% of the FAAB allowance the day he was announced as starter. That was pretty crazy then. Not so bad now.

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Yeah, early returns are good. And the important thing is that he's not striking out every 5 seconds like in 2016. Strikeout rates will take more time to normalize, but not that much more. So the less now, the more likely it's a real improvement

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17 minutes ago, Jericho said:

Yeah, early returns are good. And the important thing is that he's not striking out every 5 seconds like in 2016. Strikeout rates will take more time to normalize, but not that much more. So the less now, the more likely it's a real improvement

i mean all spring his Ks were down and his walks were up...

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