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Anyone watching a lot of Judge, can you tell me whether pitchers have started challenging him more with sliders? I feel like prospects come up and pitchers start with the mindset of 'let's see if he can catch up to my heat...' then there is a lag where SPs shift too, okay he is crushing fastballs, let's see if he can hit a slider. So if he's seeing a lot of sliders/off speed stuff and raking, I'm inclined to say this is real and as a Sox fan a little scary.

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50 minutes ago, Wild Thing said:

Anyone watching a lot of Judge, can you tell me whether pitchers have started challenging him more with sliders? I feel like prospects come up and pitchers start with the mindset of 'let's see if he can catch up to my heat...' then there is a lag where SPs shift too, okay he is crushing fastballs, let's see if he can hit a slider. So if he's seeing a lot of sliders/off speed stuff and raking, I'm inclined to say this is real and as a Sox fan a little scary.

He can't keep up this pace unless he is all time great and is the second coming of Winfield.  It's possible but I think he will regress a bit.  They always do.  But he will still remain a major force.

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On 6/15/2017 at 8:33 AM, Dylanfan66 said:

He can't keep up this pace unless he is all time great and is the second coming of Winfield.  It's possible but I think he will regress a bit.  They always do.  But he will still remain a major force.

 

Duh. Not a single person is questioning this. 

 

"the sky is blue"... Thanks! 

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On 6/15/2017 at 1:41 AM, XxxOilOverloadxxX said:

left the little league stadium and it isn't treating him too kindly

 

15-7 home/road homers

 

 

And? You know half of his remaining games come in that 15 location, right? Lol

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On 6/15/2017 at 7:42 AM, Wild Thing said:

Anyone watching a lot of Judge, can you tell me whether pitchers have started challenging him more with sliders? I feel like prospects come up and pitchers start with the mindset of 'let's see if he can catch up to my heat...' then there is a lag where SPs shift too, okay he is crushing fastballs, let's see if he can hit a slider. So if he's seeing a lot of sliders/off speed stuff and raking, I'm inclined to say this is real and as a Sox fan a little scary.

 

If you throw a perfect slider just off the plate he'll swing and miss at it. If it's too far off the plate or not a very good slider with bite he'll just lay off of it. If you hang it or leave it up at all it's in the seats. 

 

But yeah, a lot of pitchers have tried to use that pitch against him. Only place they seem willing to challenge him with the fastball is up above the zone. 

Edited by absknicks
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Did anyone happen to hear Eno and Sporer talking about Judge on the latest Sleeper and the Bust? I thought they were way off on a number of points. I assume a lot of people here listen to that pod so I'll list a few things that I strongly disagreed with and if anyone else agrees/disagrees would love to hear some alternative points of view:

 

1. They repeatedly said Judge is basically Sano, same player for fantasy purposes, Sano just plays 3B so that may give him the nod. Except Judge and Sano have huge differences in K% and SwStr% so their skillset really isn't all that similar... yes they both crush the ball when they make hard contact but Judge has shown a much more refined/all-around approach at the plate. 

 

2. A few times they dismissively said "Stanton is definitely ahead of Judge" which OK, that's not outrageous considering track record matters, but so far Judge has been way, way better than Stanton, he plays in a better lineup, better ballpark, he's 2.5 years younger and still in his rookie season so you'd think he has a chance for a more upward trajectory than Stanton does at this point in their careers (the discussion wasn't just about this year but next year's rankings as well)... and he hits the ball harder than Stanton too, which was Stanton's trump card for the last few years over pretty much any other slugger. So yeah, while I can see why an argument could be made for Stanton, I certainly don't think it's a lock like they seemed to suggest.

 

3. They kept pointing to the projections saying he's likely to hit .260 ROS with 20+ bombs... they seemed to agree wholeheartedly with that but I think .260 is selling Judge short. Don't get me wrong, he's not a .340 hitter, I'm fully aware of that, but why can't he be a .285 hitter? With his power, speed, the fact that he hits more groundballs than a lot of sluggers (higher BABIP) and goes to all fields (takes away the shift) I definitely think he has the ability to hit .285-.300 even with his current skillset/approach which he'll likely improve as time goes on. 

 

But yeah, I admit I'm a huge Judge fan so maybe I'm a bit biased but I gave each of these points a lot of thought and I think they're fair for the most part. Anyone want to chime in with what they think? 

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5 minutes ago, absknicks said:

Did anyone happen to hear Eno and Sporer talking about Judge on the latest Sleeper and the Bust? I thought they were way off on a number of points. I assume a lot of people here listen to that pod so I'll list a few things that I strongly disagreed with and if anyone else agrees/disagrees would love to hear some alternative points of view...

 

Listened to the pod this morning and completely agree with all of your points.  I thought they were really selling Judge short but I'm a biased Judge owner and they have to try and be impartial...

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On Thursday, June 15, 2017 at 7:33 PM, Dylanfan66 said:

He can't keep up this pace unless he is all time great and is the second coming of Winfield.  It's possible but I think he will regress a bit.  They always do.  But he will still remain a major force.

 

Dave Winfield never had a season at this pace. Great as he was...

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16 hours ago, absknicks said:

Did anyone happen to hear Eno and Sporer talking about Judge on the latest Sleeper and the Bust? I thought they were way off on a number of points. I assume a lot of people here listen to that pod so I'll list a few things that I strongly disagreed with and if anyone else agrees/disagrees would love to hear some alternative points of view:

 

1. They repeatedly said Judge is basically Sano, same player for fantasy purposes, Sano just plays 3B so that may give him the nod. Except Judge and Sano have huge differences in K% and SwStr% so their skillset really isn't all that similar... yes they both crush the ball when they make hard contact but Judge has shown a much more refined/all-around approach at the plate. 

 

2. A few times they dismissively said "Stanton is definitely ahead of Judge" which OK, that's not outrageous considering track record matters, but so far Judge has been way, way better than Stanton, he plays in a better lineup, better ballpark, he's 2.5 years younger and still in his rookie season so you'd think he has a chance for a more upward trajectory than Stanton does at this point in their careers (the discussion wasn't just about this year but next year's rankings as well)... and he hits the ball harder than Stanton too, which was Stanton's trump card for the last few years over pretty much any other slugger. So yeah, while I can see why an argument could be made for Stanton, I certainly don't think it's a lock like they seemed to suggest.

 

3. They kept pointing to the projections saying he's likely to hit .260 ROS with 20+ bombs... they seemed to agree wholeheartedly with that but I think .260 is selling Judge short. Don't get me wrong, he's not a .340 hitter, I'm fully aware of that, but why can't he be a .285 hitter? With his power, speed, the fact that he hits more groundballs than a lot of sluggers (higher BABIP) and goes to all fields (takes away the shift) I definitely think he has the ability to hit .285-.300 even with his current skillset/approach which he'll likely improve as time goes on. 

 

But yeah, I admit I'm a huge Judge fan so maybe I'm a bit biased but I gave each of these points a lot of thought and I think they're fair for the most part. Anyone want to chime in with what they think? 

So I think like '87 McGwire he could have this 50 homer season breaking the rookie record then never have THIS big of a season again; agree he is a .285 hitter and will OPS .950 in his sleep, at least being equal to Stanton pointing up arrow.

 

i just think it could be one of those years where it's the best he ever has, he never has another where he stays hot all year and they can't find the hole in his swing. Would not be shocked if this is his career year. He's 25 which is very old for a rookie so it's not like we have 8-9 years until he's 30 and he's in a body that may not age well. I wish he were a few years younger 

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16 hours ago, absknicks said:

Did anyone happen to hear Eno and Sporer talking about Judge on the latest Sleeper and the Bust? I thought they were way off on a number of points. I assume a lot of people here listen to that pod so I'll list a few things that I strongly disagreed with and if anyone else agrees/disagrees would love to hear some alternative points of view:

 

1. They repeatedly said Judge is basically Sano, same player for fantasy purposes, Sano just plays 3B so that may give him the nod. Except Judge and Sano have huge differences in K% and SwStr% so their skillset really isn't all that similar... yes they both crush the ball when they make hard contact but Judge has shown a much more refined/all-around approach at the plate. 

 

2. A few times they dismissively said "Stanton is definitely ahead of Judge" which OK, that's not outrageous considering track record matters, but so far Judge has been way, way better than Stanton, he plays in a better lineup, better ballpark, he's 2.5 years younger and still in his rookie season so you'd think he has a chance for a more upward trajectory than Stanton does at this point in their careers (the discussion wasn't just about this year but next year's rankings as well)... and he hits the ball harder than Stanton too, which was Stanton's trump card for the last few years over pretty much any other slugger. So yeah, while I can see why an argument could be made for Stanton, I certainly don't think it's a lock like they seemed to suggest.

 

3. They kept pointing to the projections saying he's likely to hit .260 ROS with 20+ bombs... they seemed to agree wholeheartedly with that but I think .260 is selling Judge short. Don't get me wrong, he's not a .340 hitter, I'm fully aware of that, but why can't he be a .285 hitter? With his power, speed, the fact that he hits more groundballs than a lot of sluggers (higher BABIP) and goes to all fields (takes away the shift) I definitely think he has the ability to hit .285-.300 even with his current skillset/approach which he'll likely improve as time goes on. 

 

But yeah, I admit I'm a huge Judge fan so maybe I'm a bit biased but I gave each of these points a lot of thought and I think they're fair for the most part. Anyone want to chime in with what they think? 

 

I generally agree with those 2 but wow, they were way off on those 3 points you mentioned.

 

1. How can Judge and Sano be the same for Fantasy? Judge has a 28.7 K% vs 35.5% for Sano. Sano also pops up more than Judge. That will make a large difference for Batting Average. Judge simply is a better all around hitter in regard to plate discipline, approach, and contact%. Add in the fact that Judge has a favorable home ball park, especially considering that he likes to go opposite field, and Sano plays in a pitcher's / neutral park. Also Judge is in a better lineup for counting stats.

 

2. Stanton is ahead of Judge obviously in Career numbers, but currently Judge is a better player. That is blatantly clear. Stanton never had this kind of all around production including batting average.

 

3. The projection systems are outdated and do not incorporate any information from statcast. To rely solely on steamer or depth charts or whatever projections they are referencing is lazy. Statcast is not the end all be all, but there is some direct correlation to wOBA and that should improve the projection for batting average immensely. 

Edited by lassetjus
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20 minutes ago, lassetjus said:

 

2. Stanton is ahead of Judge obviously in Career numbers, but currently Judge is a better player. That is blatantly clear. Stanton never had this kind of all around production including batting average.

 

 

FTR I don't own Judge and yes, I'm very jealous, that said (re: Stanton)- 

1) Judge is a 25 year-old rookie who has never shown anything close to this production in the minors. His BABIP, ISO, HR/FB, etc are (obviously) not sustainable. So let's let him at least finish an entire season before we think it's "blatantly clear" that he's a better player than Stanton. 

2) When Stanton was 22 & 24, he hit .290 & .288 respectively, and had 37 HRs both seasons. So he has shown the ability to hit for power & AVG (also hitting .288 this season). 

 

The fact that Stanton is just 2 years older than Judge despite being in the majors for 8 seasons is crazy. I think you're being much too quick to proclaim Judge the better hitter. Let it play out. 

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14 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

 

FTR I don't own Judge and yes, I'm very jealous, that said (re: Stanton)- 

1) Judge is a 25 year-old rookie who has never shown anything close to this production in the minors. His BABIP, ISO, HR/FB, etc are (obviously) not sustainable. So let's let him at least finish an entire season before we think it's "blatantly clear" that he's a better player than Stanton. 

2) When Stanton was 22 & 24, he hit .290 & .288 respectively, and had 37 HRs both seasons. So he has shown the ability to hit for power & AVG (also hitting .288 this season). 

 

The fact that Stanton is just 2 years older than Judge despite being in the majors for 8 seasons is crazy. I think you're being much too quick to proclaim Judge the better hitter. Let it play out. 

Yeah, I think Stanton is the better hitter but like Cargo "back in the day" or Tulo "back in the day", health just crushed him. Stanton is seriously powerful enough to launch 60HRs and hit for a decent average. And in today's FBB leagues, how often do people really care about BA? A lot of leagues I've joined are ditching that stat for OPS, or will have BA with OBP. I'd gladly grab a guy with 50HR power and a .260 average.

I think a healthy Stanton is a really good comp for what we'll see from Judge career-wise, it's just a matter of:

1) Can Judge stay healthy?
2) Can he avoid a 30% k-rate, or will he turn into C(K)hris Davis?
 

Love both guys... So exciting to watch, and I hope the HR Derby turns into Judge V Stanton every year. 

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18 hours ago, absknicks said:

Did anyone happen to hear Eno and Sporer talking about Judge on the latest Sleeper and the Bust? I thought they were way off on a number of points. I assume a lot of people here listen to that pod so I'll list a few things that I strongly disagreed with and if anyone else agrees/disagrees would love to hear some alternative points of view:

 

1. They repeatedly said Judge is basically Sano, same player for fantasy purposes, Sano just plays 3B so that may give him the nod. Except Judge and Sano have huge differences in K% and SwStr% so their skillset really isn't all that similar... yes they both crush the ball when they make hard contact but Judge has shown a much more refined/all-around approach at the plate. 

 

2. A few times they dismissively said "Stanton is definitely ahead of Judge" which OK, that's not outrageous considering track record matters, but so far Judge has been way, way better than Stanton, he plays in a better lineup, better ballpark, he's 2.5 years younger and still in his rookie season so you'd think he has a chance for a more upward trajectory than Stanton does at this point in their careers (the discussion wasn't just about this year but next year's rankings as well)... and he hits the ball harder than Stanton too, which was Stanton's trump card for the last few years over pretty much any other slugger. So yeah, while I can see why an argument could be made for Stanton, I certainly don't think it's a lock like they seemed to suggest.

 

3. They kept pointing to the projections saying he's likely to hit .260 ROS with 20+ bombs... they seemed to agree wholeheartedly with that but I think .260 is selling Judge short. Don't get me wrong, he's not a .340 hitter, I'm fully aware of that, but why can't he be a .285 hitter? With his power, speed, the fact that he hits more groundballs than a lot of sluggers (higher BABIP) and goes to all fields (takes away the shift) I definitely think he has the ability to hit .285-.300 even with his current skillset/approach which he'll likely improve as time goes on. 

 

But yeah, I admit I'm a huge Judge fan so maybe I'm a bit biased but I gave each of these points a lot of thought and I think they're fair for the most part. Anyone want to chime in with what they think? 

Sano has a very refined approach too...a good idea of the K zone..and rarely makes bad contact. His quality of contact is defentity on par with Judge.

 

They are pretty similar in most regards. The GB difference(37 to 33) between them means about nothing for BABIP for 2 hitters who have easy power to all fields

 

However for me..what separates Judge from Sano... Judge is shorter to the ball. Which is the main reason why he has a higher contact rate/K/SwStr etc.. You take 2 guys with all the same hitting skill sets but contact rate. The guy with the higher contact rate is always superior. Because Judge is putting more well hit balls in play than him which helps project a higher BA and more cumulative HRs. Its that simple..   

 

As for Stanton. Judge is probably the better Fantasy asset because of the smaller ball park/better line up. Though true talent wise they are probably about the same in the long run. Stanton might still tip the scales right now ...

 

Edited by Slatykamora
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Jeff Sullivan and Dave Cameron both seemed to indicate they believe Judge has perhaps already surpassed Stanton so it's not like the FanGraphs crew has drawn a consensus on that debate... and the rolling trend chart that someone posted that showed Judge's last two months is better than Stanton's ever been able to do for any extended period of time in his career is pretty telling as well, IMO.

 

But yes, track record does count for something, so I'd still probably have them on par with one another in terms of ROS and next year. Certainly not a "lock for Stanton above Judge" as Sporer and Eno seemed to argue for. 

 

 

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10 hours ago, mevins31 said:

So I think like '87 McGwire he could have this 50 homer season breaking the rookie record then never have THIS big of a season again; agree he is a .285 hitter and will OPS .950 in his sleep, at least being equal to Stanton pointing up arrow.

 

i just think it could be one of those years where it's the best he ever has, he never has another where he stays hot all year and they can't find the hole in his swing. Would not be shocked if this is his career year. He's 25 which is very old for a rookie so it's not like we have 8-9 years until he's 30 and he's in a body that may not age well. I wish he were a few years younger 

 

Well, he just turned 25 like a month ago. And guys his size (or close to his size) often take time to figure it out. It could very well be his career year since he's on pace to run away with the MVP but I wouldn't hold the fact that he's older-ish for a rookie against him. Nelson Cruz broke out when he was what, 27/28? Some guys just take a bit longer to figure it out, doesn't necessarily limit their future development path, IMO.  

 

But yeah, I get what you're saying, like I said I'm a Judge fanboy of sorts so I appreciate the other perspectives.

Edited by absknicks
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