Jump to content
NBC Sports Edge Forums

Aaron Judge 2017 Outlook


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

 

5 hours ago, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

To get back on topic, the most impressive thing about Judge is not his mammoth power, it's his extremely high BB% of 17.3%. Couple that with his very low soft% of 12.9%, and it's no wonder he is demolishing the competition.

The new strategy for pitchers this month is to just not throw him any strikes. In impressive fashion, he answers with a 22% walk rate for June. You just cannot get this guy to expand the zone. Having the opportunity to watch him every game is something special. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, DannyMcPot said:

^ He's right, it's very Judgemental in here!

The new strategy for pitchers this month is to just not throw him any strikes. In impressive fashion, he answers with a 22% walk rate for June. You just cannot get this guy to expand the zone. Having the opportunity to watch him every game is something special. 

 

Looking into him a bit further, I found some interesting things. His O-Swing% is nearly 5% lower than the league average. The reason he strikes out so frequently, however, is because his O-Contact% is 17.1% lower than the league average. That means that when he does swing at pitches out of the zone, he is not making contact. His Z-Contact% is about 5% less than the league average. Essentially, he does have a lot of swing and miss in his game, but his power and walk rate are through the roof.

Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

Looking into him a bit further, I found some interesting things. His O-Swing% is nearly 5% lower than the league average. The reason he strikes out so frequently, however, is because his O-Contact% is 17.1% lower than the league average. That means that when he does swing at pitches out of the zone, he is not making contact. His Z-Contact% is about 5% less than the league average. Essentially, he does have a lot of swing and miss in his game, but his power and walk rate are through the roof.

Interesting stuff. Can't help but think some of the swing and miss is due to how much zone he has to cover compared to the rest of the league. And it's even larger than that because umps are calling those low pitches for strikes on him pretty consistently. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

 

Looking into him a bit further, I found some interesting things. His O-Swing% is nearly 5% lower than the league average. The reason he strikes out so frequently, however, is because his O-Contact% is 17.1% lower than the league average. That means that when he does swing at pitches out of the zone, he is not making contact. His Z-Contact% is about 5% less than the league average. Essentially, he does have a lot of swing and miss in his game, but his power and walk rate are through the roof.

 

One can look at making contact outside the strikezone as a bad thing. Usually that would mean a weakly batted ball. For Judge, it could be strike 1 or strike 2 and he still has a chance to do something with the at bat.

 

As far as his overall bat to ball contact skills, yes, it is below average, but he is making the most of it by mostly swinging at pitches in the strike zone. He is one of the biggest players in the history of the game and typically these people have long swings that result in low contact. He has worked hard to shorten and level his swing in an effort to make more contact and he has been successful enough this season with that amount of contact.

Link to post
Share on other sites

1. Leads the league in Barrels

2. Leads the league in Brls/BBE

3. Leads the league in Brls/PA

4. Leads the league in exit velocity

5. Leads the league in average exit velocity

6. First in wRC+ against RHP

7. Second in wRC+ against LHP

8. His wRC+ is 30 points higher than the second person on the list, which is Joey Votto

9. First in ISO with .355. That is higher than the slugging percentages of 13 players, such as CarGo, Villar, Victor Martinez, etc.

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Critics want to point to his "unsustainable" BABIP, but as far as we know, no one has ever hit a ball the way Judge hits a ball, so comparing his BABIP to mere mortals is inappropriate.  The frequency with which he hits the ball more than 110 MPH is apparently unprecedented, so why wouldn't he also be capable of an unprecedented BABIP?

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, TopChuckie said:

Critics want to point to his "unsustainable" BABIP, but as far as we know, no one has ever hit a ball the way Judge hits a ball, so comparing his BABIP to mere mortals is inappropriate.  The frequency with which he hits the ball more than 110 MPH is apparently unprecedented, so why wouldn't he also be capable of an unprecedented BABIP?

THIS. Models for prediction always look crazy at the extremes. His extreme hard hit, combined with a babip boosting high gb rate, are really pushing the limits of what is possible. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Do we think that Judge is the first person to hit a baseball as consistently hard as he does?  Has exit velocities like this happened in the past and we just didn't have the technology?  I've been watching baseball for about 15 years and I'm 32 so I've missed a sh#t ton of baseball. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
33 minutes ago, codyodea said:

Do we think that Judge is the first person to hit a baseball as consistently hard as he does?  Has exit velocities like this happened in the past and we just didn't have the technology?  I've been watching baseball for about 15 years and I'm 32 so I've missed a sh#t ton of baseball. 

No way to really know, old timers will mention Ruth, Kiner, Aaron, Killebrew, Greenberg and others. Josh Gibson. Sure I'm leaving out a few. But he's hitting as hard as I've ever seen balls get hit, and like you I came of age during roid era.

 

We no longer blink when a 6'6+ 280lb+ footballer can run a 4.3 still. Or a 7 footer who can shoot and dribble. Judge looks to be the baseball version of this, a giant who can swing smooth consistently. Now all he has to do is keep it up for 10 or more years and he'll really be in the conversation with the legends I named above. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, codyodea said:

Do we think that Judge is the first person to hit a baseball as consistently hard as he does?  Has exit velocities like this happened in the past and we just didn't have the technology?  I've been watching baseball for about 15 years and I'm 32 so I've missed a sh#t ton of baseball. 

 

 

I'm guessing guys like Winfield and Sheffield 

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, azeri98 said:

Bonds, McGwire and Canseco hit the ball very hard

 

 

And what else did those 3 do?

Edited by rich22
Link to post
Share on other sites

Unbelievable!  I hope this kid stays healthy and breaks Bonds' single season HR record.  There's almost zero chance of that happening, but, I would damn sure love to see it!

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.


×
×
  • Create New...