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Aaron Judge 2017 Outlook


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16 hours ago, WahooManiac said:

THIS. Models for prediction always look crazy at the extremes. His extreme hard hit, combined with a babip boosting high gb rate, are really pushing the limits of what is possible. 

 

Yep, also worth remembering he sprays the ball to all fields. His spray charts are a thing of beauty. That'll keep him shift proof for the forseeable future and in recent years the biggest factor that has cut into power hitters' batting averages has been the shift, IMO. 

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homer dead center - 30th homer, passing Joe D for most by yankee rookie.....WOW

 

what are your projections for him?

 

what are his 162 game projection right now?

Edited by jfazz23
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25 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

homer dead center - 30th homer, passing Joe D for most by yankee rookie.....WOW

 

what are your projections for him?

 

what are his 162 game projection right now?

Well he hits one per day so let's give him .330/162 HR

For realsies tho, I'll say .300/55 

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35 minutes ago, Baseball Batman said:

Anybody know whether or not Judge is the first rookie to hit 30 bombs before the All-Star break???

 

I'm fairly certain Mark McGwire did it also back in the 80s

 

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6 minutes ago, jb_power said:

 

I'm fairly certain Mark McGwire did it also back in the 80s

 

Only McGwire. He needs one more before the break to make the cheater history 

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Just watching the clip again I noticed that he was actually out in a front a bit (his weight, not his bat) on this changeup and still managed to hit it off the restaurant in dead center at 110 MPH and 435 feet. Not breaking any news here but that's just obscene power. Here's the clip of #30:

 

 

Edited by absknicks
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Nothing really to add about his outlook but that legendary Derby performance deserves a bump. This guy has generational power that we may never see again in our lifetimes. 

 

 

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so the only question I really have, is for redraft next year/keeper etc. Has he reached that discussion of top 3, I mean is he a guy you actually consider over Goldy and Harper, is he the cream of the crop, or is he going to be a Stanton going forward.  There was discussion a few years ago, about Trout Harper and Stanton and how to rank them.

 

I am just not sure what to think, I can't recall a rookie like this absolutely destroying everything since Piazza

 

My current 5x5 is 

 

Trout, Goldy, Correa, Altuve, Harper, Kershaw, Judge, Scherzer, then you got your (Springer, Blackmon, Betts, Ramirez???, Turner, Arenado, etc)

Edited by Golden Spikes
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1 minute ago, Golden Spikes said:

so the only question I really have, is for redraft next year/keeper etc. Has he reached that discussion of top 3, I mean is he a guy you actually consider over Goldy and Harper, is he the cream of the crop, or is he going to be a Stanton going forward.  There was discussion a few years ago, about Trout Harper and Stanton and how to rank them.

 

I am just not sure what to think, I can't recall a rookie like this absolutely destroying everything since Piazza

 

My current 5x5 is 

 

Trout, Goldy, Correa, Altuve, Harper, Kershaw, Judge, Scherzer, then you got your (Springer, Blackmon, Betts, Ramirez???, Turner, Arenado, etc)

 

I think it's still very much up in the air. Depends on what happens in the second half. As incredible as he's been he's still short on track record compared to those no doubt top-5/6 type picks. If he puts up a similar second half to his first half (big if, no doubt) he has to be in the discussion for #2 overall. 

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I tried to so hard  to neglect this kids start as just another hot start from a rookie. After watching that home run derby i am totally convinced. That was an incredible show case of power. The kid is legit!! Fangraphs projections are totally undervalueing him ros and I'm freaking pissed I passed on this guy when he was available on the wire!

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6 minutes ago, Jimmymckrack said:

The torque generated in his swing that looked so effortless.  The ball flew off his bat what looked like 20x more powerful then off any of the other contestants. Impressive. 

 

I remember one ball that went off the end of his bat, and I thought to myself, "damn, he missed that one." It ended up going 400+ to opposite field. 

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The prospect of him facing Stanton in the finals was delicious because he is Stanton evolved. The Marlins lavished Stanton with a $325 million deal in hopes he would become what Judge already is, a fully formed hitter whose power recalibrates previously held notions of what power truly can be.

 

https://sports.yahoo.com/aaron-judges-legendary-home-run-derby-performance-introduced-world-baseballs-newest-star-072944350.html

 

 

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9 hours ago, Golden Spikes said:

so the only question I really have, is for redraft next year/keeper etc. Has he reached that discussion of top 3, I mean is he a guy you actually consider over Goldy and Harper, is he the cream of the crop, or is he going to be a Stanton going forward.  There was discussion a few years ago, about Trout Harper and Stanton and how to rank them.

 

I am just not sure what to think, I can't recall a rookie like this absolutely destroying everything since Piazza

 

My current 5x5 is 

 

Trout, Goldy, Correa, Altuve, Harper, Kershaw, Judge, Scherzer, then you got your (Springer, Blackmon, Betts, Ramirez???, Turner, Arenado, etc)

 

It's still a litlte early for that. Ok, really early. I'm more curious about what he shows his floor to be, as opposed to what he's shown his ceiling to be. We have seen an insane ~85 game stretch from him. This is a guy who was fighting for a starting job this fall, and he's obliterating anything he's ever shown before. Really enjoying it while it lasts. 

That said, he will probably end up drafted where Stanton was coming into his peak years/pre-several injuries. Factor in he's a yank and will receive much mroe hype though, and it probably bumps him a bit higher. 

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13 minutes ago, My Dinner With Andre said:

Kind of blasphemous to say this I know, but Judge is invoking memories of Ryan Howard's 2006 campaign: 58 HRs, .313 average despite a high K rate, bona-fide 1st rounder the following year.

 

Alas, Howard struggled to hit anywhere close to .313 ever again.

 

Go take a look at Ryan Howard spray charts and I think the comparison will end right there.  Howard was killed by the shift, Judge is a righty and hits to all fields, i.e. much less shiftable.

 

ETA: Also, while we don't know Ryan Howard's exit velocities pre-Statcast, I think based on how Judge has completely dominated the EV leaderboard over Stanton, we can fairly safely conclude we have never seen exit velocities like this before.  Further contributing to the lack of precedent and comparisons.

Edited by TopChuckie
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