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Aaron Judge 2017 Outlook


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20 minutes ago, TopChuckie said:

 

Go take a look at Ryan Howard spray charts and I think the comparison will end right there.  Howard was killed by the shift, Judge is a righty and hits to all fields, i.e. much less shiftable.

 

Well, I actually thought the Howard comp was fair (and have made it before). I did my due diligence some time ago, and I couldn't find any Ryan Howard spray charts. However, I did find a page that had linked a couple, but now the graphics are dead. The link is here https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2006/8/15/10639/3265

 

Worth noting, the article says this about the graphics (emphasis added) "

Going the other way with the pitch, Howard either flies out or hits a homerun in all but five or six (depending on what you consider to be left field and left center) batted-balls in a two-year span at Citizens Bank Park. Two of those five or six were doubles that landed on the warning track. Howard has incredible power going the other way; considering how far some of the balls he pulls travel at his home park, it's no wonder he's earning a reputation as one of the most feared hitters in the game as soon as he is."


The batted ball graphics : Howards is from his first available year on fangraphs, 2012. Not really a fair comp, but gives an idea to his chart when he wasn't hitting well. Judge's is from this season. 

 

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3 minutes ago, sngehl01 said:

 

Well, I actually thought the Howard comp was fair (and have made it before). I did my due diligence some time ago, and I couldn't find any Ryan Howard spray charts. However, I did find a page that had linked a couple, but now the graphics are dead. The link is here https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2006/8/15/10639/3265

 

Worth noting, the article says this about the graphics (emphasis added) "

Going the other way with the pitch, Howard either flies out or hits a homerun in all but five or six (depending on what you consider to be left field and left center) batted-balls in a two-year span at Citizens Bank Park. Two of those five or six were doubles that landed on the warning track. Howard has incredible power going the other way; considering how far some of the balls he pulls travel at his home park, it's no wonder he's earning a reputation as one of the most feared hitters in the game as soon as he is."


The batted ball graphics : Howards is from his first available year on fangraphs, 2012. Not really a fair comp, but gives an idea to his chart when he wasn't hitting well. Judge's is from this season. 

 

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That is Judge's 2016, not 2017.  Big difference.

 

Here's a Google list of articles about how the shift killed Howard's career:

 

https://www.google.com/search?q=shift+ryan+howard&oq=shift+ryan+howard&aqs=chrome..69i57j0.8421j0j8&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

 

"The defensive shift ended Howard’s career, and it might have cost him a shot at the Hall of Fame as well."

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2 minutes ago, Jimmymckrack said:

Please do not compare Aaron judge to Ryan Howard. That has to be the worst player comparison I've ever seen lol.


Don't be such a homer. Howard was LOVED by everyone when he started smashing. His first season, he wins the MVP award. He was 26 and batted .313 with 58 homers, 149 RBI, 108 BB, and a moderate 181 K. He had a .313/.425/.659 slash. 

 

Judge isn't hitting HR at quite as high of a clip as Howard did. Judge has a slash line of .329/.448/.691. He's also only done this for 84 games. 

Judge is a monster, but the Howard comp was more than fair given the guys hitting style (just hit the ball really hard into the air) and take walks. 

Howard was 26, garnered MVP votes for years after that season, but it was his best season, by far. He set his career highs in HR, BB, BA, SLG, OBP that year. His K's were essentially a career low also, and a per PA basis (as far as the next 5 MVP caliber seasons went). He ended up a .258 career hitter but hit .313 that year (and ~.286 the ~110 games before that). He went downhill fast. The K's led some to believe there were some gaps in his swings, and once it was exploited, he just wasn't the same. 

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1 minute ago, TopChuckie said:

 

That is Judge's 2016, not 2017.  Big difference.

 

Here's a Google list of articles about how the shift killed Howard's career:

 

https://www.google.com/search?q=shift+ryan+howard&oq=shift+ryan+howard&aqs=chrome..69i57j0.8421j0j8&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

 

"The defensive shift ended Howard’s career, and it might have cost him a shot at the Hall of Fame as well."

Crap, you're right. Fixed.

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3 minutes ago, TopChuckie said:

 

That is Judge's 2016, not 2017.  Big difference.

 

Here's a Google list of articles about how the shift killed Howard's career:

 

https://www.google.com/search?q=shift+ryan+howard&oq=shift+ryan+howard&aqs=chrome..69i57j0.8421j0j8&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

 

"The defensive shift ended Howard’s career, and it might have cost him a shot at the Hall of Fame as well."

 

And yes, but that was an adjustment to the player, he couldn't recover. However, the spray charts don't suggest in his NON PRIME YEARS that has was much more pull happy that Judge. I feel saddened that I never could find the spray chart from his 2006 campaign. 

Howards 2012 or whatever season is a huge difference from his 2006, but even looking at this (the earliest I can find) compared to Judge... it's not that much different. 

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1 minute ago, sngehl01 said:

 

And yes, but that was an adjustment to the player, he couldn't recover. However, the spray charts don't suggest in his NON PRIME YEARS that has was much more pull happy that Judge. I feel saddened that I never could find the spray chart from his 2006 campaign. 

Howards 2012 or whatever season is a huge difference from his 2006, but even looking at this (the earliest I can find) compared to Judge... it's not that much different. 

 

The bottom line is, I'm not saying Judge will keep up this level of performance, but I can pretty much guarantee there will never be an article about how the shift derailed his career.  Also, pitchers have been looking for these supposed holes in Judge's swing all season.  They aren't having too much luck finding them.  Other than HR's and K's, I don't think it's accurate to say they have similar hitting styles.  I don't think Judge is swinging for the fences, except last night.  He just tries to hit the ball hard wherever it is pitched, and the fences just happen to be too close.

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Just now, TopChuckie said:

 

The bottom line is, I'm not saying Judge will keep up this level of performance, but I can pretty much guarantee there will never be an article about how the shift derailed his career.  Also, pitchers have been looking for these supposed holes in Judge's swing all season.  They aren't having too much luck finding them.  Other than HR's and K's, I don't think it's accurate to say they have similar hitting styles.  I don't think Judge is swinging for the fences, except last night.  He just tries to hit the ball hard wherever it is pitched, and the fences just happen to be too close.

 

I agree with. However, I think the point is more-so that unparalleled rookie/early seasons are unheard of, until they're not. Judge is having a lot of firsts, and maybe to greater extremes than anyone has before, but it's still a very small sample. The dude could be scary good, or in 10 years we could all be saying "Man, you remember how hard that Judge guy for the Yankees used to hit the ball?"

All I'm saying is it's fine to be optimistic, but his mainting this or improvement is far from guarantee. It has still only been ~85 games. 

And, yes, they have been looking for them all season. Same with Bellinger, but Bellinger has been far more streaky. Or Trevor Story last year. Get on Story's 2017 outlook, he was this boards darling before the season. The high K rate is susceptible to fluctuation in BA and all that. I don't buy that he's all of a sudden doing this against the best of the best, after fighting for a job this spring and doing nothing close to this in the minors. It's not like he's overly young either. 

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10 minutes ago, sngehl01 said:

 

I agree with. However, I think the point is more-so that unparalleled rookie/early seasons are unheard of, until they're not. Judge is having a lot of firsts, and maybe to greater extremes than anyone has before, but it's still a very small sample. The dude could be scary good, or in 10 years we could all be saying "Man, you remember how hard that Judge guy for the Yankees used to hit the ball?"

All I'm saying is it's fine to be optimistic, but his mainting this or improvement is far from guarantee. It has still only been ~85 games. 

And, yes, they have been looking for them all season. Same with Bellinger, but Bellinger has been far more streaky. Or Trevor Story last year. Get on Story's 2017 outlook, he was this boards darling before the season. The high K rate is susceptible to fluctuation in BA and all that. I don't buy that he's all of a sudden doing this against the best of the best, after fighting for a job this spring and doing nothing close to this in the minors. It's not like he's overly young either. 

 

I don't mean to take it out on you, but this Story comparison gets more and more ridiculous by the day.  Story hit 10 HR's the first month and everyone went nuts.  Then he hit 4, 5, & 8 the next three months.  Judge hit 10 HR's the first month, then he hit 8, THEN HE HIT 10 AGAIN.  That thing that made Story such a sensation, Judge has done it twice already.

 

Story hit 27 HR before he got hurt at the end of July.  Judge has 30 and the rest of the month of July.

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24 minutes ago, TopChuckie said:

 

I don't mean to take it out on you, but this Story comparison gets more and more ridiculous by the day.  Story hit 10 HR's the first month and everyone went nuts.  Then he hit 4, 5, & 8 the next three months.  Judge hit 10 HR's the first month, then he hit 8, THEN HE HIT 10 AGAIN.  That thing that made Story such a sensation, Judge has done it twice already.

 

Story hit 27 HR before he got hurt at the end of July.  Judge has 30 and the rest of the month of July.


It's not that Story = Judge. I completely understand. However, he's a shell of his former self. What Judge is doing now is orders of magnitude greater than what Story did last year, but Story last year was incredible, and people are already starting to forget how good so many expected him to be. That's why you have to dip way back and grab a Ryan Howard type comp. 

Judge may very well be the next coming of Big Mac or something, or he may have just had one of the most dominant 85 game stretches in baseball history (at least in the last 20 years). 

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I think the biggest difference between Judge and Story, and what too many people are not acknowledging when they want to hang their hats on BABIP and K%, is the Statcast data that you cannot fluke into.  You don't accidentally hit 5 of the 6 hardest balls of the year, or pepper your name all over the EV leaderboard, or lead in average EV by 2.3 MPH after half a season.  The 2.3 MPH between Judge at 1 and Sano at 2, is the same as between Sano at 2 and K. Morales at 19.  These are not 85 game hot streak numbers, these are true talent indicators.  Before Judge, it was Stanton all over the EV leaderboard every year.  EV is a sustainable trait.

 

Also, not to put too much importance in the Derby, but if he was just hot right now, there's not really any reason for that to carry over into something as different from actual games as the Derby.  He completely dominated the Derby because of his talent and power, not because he's on a hot streak.

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14 minutes ago, TopChuckie said:

I think the biggest difference between Judge and Story, and what too many people are not acknowledging when they want to hang their hats on BABIP and K%, is the Statcast data that you cannot fluke into.  You don't accidentally hit 5 of the 6 hardest balls of the year, or pepper your name all over the EV leaderboard, or lead in average EV by 2.3 MPH after half a season.  The 2.3 MPH between Judge at 1 and Sano at 2, is the same as between Sano at 2 and K. Morales at 19.  These are not 85 game hot streak numbers, these are true talent indicators.  Before Judge, it was Stanton all over the EV leaderboard every year.  EV is a sustainable trait.

 

Also, not to put too much importance in the Derby, but if he was just hot right now, there's not really any reason for that to carry over into something as different from actual games as the Derby.  He completely dominated the Derby because of his talent and power, not because he's on a hot streak.

 

Once again, this isn't a Story = Judge anything. But go read Story's thread. There are mountains of data supporting why he's an excellent bet to repeat, or improve on last years numbers. It's easy to counter that now with how he was playing, but before the season, you were just silly if thought he wasn't going to be a stud (according to many on here). 


Yes, Judge smokes it. But Ryan Howard compared to his peers in 2006 did the same. He went the other way. Smashed the ball everywhere, high BABIP, tons of power. Yes, Judge is hitting it harder than Howard did, but the average exit velocity is also higher now than it was in 2006. 

He completely dominated the derby because he's a mountain of a man who can crush good pitches, and even more so BP style pitches. He edged out Justin Bour by 1 in round 1, why aren't we singing the praises of Bour now if the derby was at all indicative of actual ability? Stanton is a stud this year too, but was edged out round 1. 

Again, what Judge is doing is on another level. But extrapolating out such a small sample when it was so unexpected is a dangerous game. 

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Not to get semantic but he actually beat Bour by two since the one that he hit off the roof didn't count. And there were was still 10+ seconds left on the clock in his bonus time so he probably could've beat him by 3-4 if he had continued. 

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3 hours ago, absknicks said:

Not to get semantic but he actually beat Bour by two since the one that he hit off the roof didn't count. And there were was still 10+ seconds left on the clock in his bonus time so he probably could've beat him by 3-4 if he had continued. 

That's enough, I'm buying.

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I'm sold now as well...cannot seem to find him on my FA list though

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Haven't added anything to this thread In a bit, I actually just saw the derby and it was glorious.  Gary and Jugey going off was wonderful. I have nothing to really add regarding Judges dominance, I am just happy to be a Yankee fan.  I am done here.  Can the 2nd half start now?? 

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On 7/11/2017 at 8:35 AM, sngehl01 said:

 

And yes, but that was an adjustment to the player, he couldn't recover. However, the spray charts don't suggest in his NON PRIME YEARS that has was much more pull happy that Judge. I feel saddened that I never could find the spray chart from his 2006 campaign. 

Howards 2012 or whatever season is a huge difference from his 2006, but even looking at this (the earliest I can find) compared to Judge... it's not that much different. 

I wish I could see those old Ryan Howard spray charts.  Or not even a spray chart, just a location for his HRs.

 

I seem to remember that during his prime, he'd often take that low and outside pitch over the left field wall.  Then later on he was trying to pull everything, including that low and outside pitch.  

 

No evidence for any of this, other than my anecdotal recollections.  

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0-9 right out of the second half gate.... obviously extremely early in the second half and could completely right the ship in tomorrow's doubleheader, but including the all star game he is 0 for his last 12.... One may get a bit curious if the derby has effected him. Hoping for some bombs in tomorrow's 2 games!

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Just now, bdawkins456 said:

0-9 right out of the second half gate.... obviously extremely early in the second half and could completely right the ship in tomorrow's doubleheader, but including the all star game he is 0 for his last 12.... One may get a bit curious if the derby has effected him. Hoping for some bombs in tomorrow's 2 games!

Well he did face Chris Sale just now and he was making mincemeat of everyone.  Though Pomeranz handled him well night before.  Both pitcher were using similar approaches.  So maybe the Sox have found his 1" by 1" krytonite zone or something.

But yeah I do believe the HR Derby takes it out of players.  I mean Gary Sanchez could barely lift his bat in the second round.  Which was good.  He got out of there before his arms fell off. 

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People are complaining because he's gotten dominated by one very good pitcher and one great pitcher in a 2 game span.  People do realize most teams don't have a sale or pomeranz right?  Let's see how he handles Price - might touch him up for a solo shot.

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