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Aaron Judge 2017 Outlook


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I wouldn't be so quick to Judge yet. 

Everything tells us his average should come CRASHING down but he's not a normal baseball player. This guy is the outlier in every sense of the word. I'm not sure what his BABIP should be but I'm pretty certain it will be higher than most. 

Have to give him a pass for facing Sale yesterday and I'm sure the Derby took it out of him as well. I think he'll settle in around a .300 average when all is said and done. The entire world is predicting regression but all this guy does is laugh and smash dongs. Unless he changes his approach or is just exhausted physically, I don't see his numbers taking that much of a tumble. 

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Trying to trade him away where possible. Picked him up as a FA, would love to get first round value back. He might be a 1st round value, but I'd rather take my chances on someone with a track record.

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Any of you Judge owners thinking he may be another Thames? How many of you own both and missed out on great trade offers for Thames?  Yes he was robbed by Bradley but thats the first possible homerun I have seen that wasn't 400 feet. It is possible he's tired . But it is also possible a huge regression is coming.  1-18 .Yes I know most of you are going to call this off the wall. But nobody really knows do we. Time will tell. We shall see. I tried to get him in two leagues . I offered team changing offers . Would have set both teams up for years to come. Both rejected. I'm actually happy that happened . I would still take him in a heartbeat but no where near what I offered. Good luck to all of you that do own him.

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1 hour ago, motown magic said:

Any of you Judge owners thinking he may be another Thames? How many of you own both and missed out on great trade offers for Thames?  Yes he was robbed by Bradley but thats the first possible homerun I have seen that wasn't 400 feet. It is possible he's tired . But it is also possible a huge regression is coming.  1-18 .Yes I know most of you are going to call this off the wall. But nobody really knows do we. Time will tell. We shall see. I tried to get him in two leagues . I offered team changing offers . Would have set both teams up for years to come. Both rejected. I'm actually happy that happened . I would still take him in a heartbeat but no where near what I offered. Good luck to all of you that do own him.

 

The robbed homerun was measured by statcast at 411 ft...

 

Anyway, if it's even possible, I would be trying to aquire Judge right now if any of his owners are nervous about this "slump" in which he is facing ace pitchers and hitting caught linedrives and getting robbed 411 ft flyballs and getting called out on strikes 6 inches off the plate.

Edited by lassetjus
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He's still a guy that k's a ton and makes low contact. Are owners really expecting him to not have any slumps? In the 2nd half I fully expect him to get pitched differently, as pitchers at some point will adjust to his adjustments. He's an absolute monster that tatoos the ball when he hits it though, and I have zero concerns about him whatsoever. He's a star. 

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3 hours ago, Red Sox Nation said:

He's still a guy that k's a ton and makes low contact. Are owners really expecting him to not have any slumps? In the 2nd half I fully expect him to get pitched differently, as pitchers at some point will adjust to his adjustments. He's an absolute monster that tatoos the ball when he hits it though, and I have zero concerns about him whatsoever. He's a star. 

I've seen so many owners panicking - he's being traded all over the place.  People smell a regression coming.  I think he will regress some but probably not as bad as Thames.  He'll still end up with a good batting line.

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He could sleep walk through the rest of the season and hit 11 home runs. Even if you think major regression is coming he still has the most raw power of anyone in the game by a large margin. And he plays in a bandbox. 

Edited by absknicks
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5 hours ago, mevins31 said:

Over under 11 HR rest of the year?

 

I think the tougher over under would be 17.5 with 70 games to go. 

 

11 seems too low for a guy with his power. He could get that even if he slumps all 2nd half. Hell Chris Carter can run into 11 homers if you give him enough at bats. 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Cdub2k said:

 

I think the tougher over under would be 17.5 with 70 games to go. 

 

11 seems too low for a guy with his power. He could get that even if he slumps all 2nd half. Hell Chris Carter can run into 11 homers if you give him enough at bats. 

 

 

 

Has a couple hits last night. Bartolo Colon can get anyone out of a slump.

 

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8 games without a homer, 3 homers in 3 games before that. Everyone needs to chill. He's in an 8 game "power slump"...

I'm a little worried, considering his "slump" started before the ASB - super high strikeout rate, BABIP dropped to under .300, 1/5 games all over the place... But he was walking a decent amount.

He's definitely a guy than go the Chris/Khris Davis route, but what's wrong with that? Both guys have flashed 40HR power. If you're in a league that doesn't count OPS, I'd be a little more worried I guess... In my OPS league, he can go ahead and bat .240 if he's hitting for power and getting on base.

 

 

ZiPS has him finishing the year with a line of: 46HR/116R/107RBI/22 doubles with 4 triples, and .291/.402/.601 with an OPS of 1.003

I realize ZiPS/Steamer/etc isn't always 100% here (is it ever?), but if he finishes the year sniffing those numbers... well, damn that's incredible. He can seriously slump through the end of the month and still do it.

Edited by BlueJaysIn2030
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