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Aaron Judge 2017 Outlook

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How would you guys compare him to a 2007-2009 Jack Cust? 


So far this season Judge may finish with the highest hr/fly ball% in the past 15 years with 37%. For comparison, Giancarlo Stanton's career hr/fly ball is about 26%. If you take 11% from Judge and turn those fly balls into outs, he is down to about 26 home runs and a .263 avg at this point in the season


For comparison Jack Cust 2007-2009 had a very similar k% of 30-32%, bb% and line drive/fly ball/ground ball % were also similar according to fangraphs.


Jack Cust 2007-2009

'07 .256 avg 26 hr .355 babip 31.7%hr/fb

'08 .231 avg 33 hr .306 babip 29.7%hr/fb

'09 .240 avg 25 hr .319 babip 17.7%hr/fb


So if Judge maintains a Jack Cust level k%, but drops down a more reasonable babip and hr/fly ball%, is a .230-.250 avg with 25-35 hr probable?


Best case scenario would be if can have few Ryan Howard type seasons, with high ks/high babip/high hr/fb%, but just wanted to get a few thoughts on whether people are avoiding him next year because of the low floor.

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Agreed, I realized that after...was just looking into comparable players because it doesn't make sense why his numbers are this good. 


A lot of people look at him like 1st round value, but I'd still look at him for next year as a .230- 250 hitter with 25-35 hr.


Wanted to know if I'm on my own or other people agree. 

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Pretty crazy that his 1H was so dominant that even after a month long slump he's still right there in the MVP race. If he gets hot again, it may be his to lose. Hopefully the last 3 games are the start of another great run. 

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5 hours ago, osb_tensor said:

This seems like pretty important info, if true. 


Haven't heard that from anyone reputable who covers the Yankees. I've noticed his shoulder wrapped in postgame interviews, so there could be some validity to it, but until something reliable comes out (no offense to that guy, but he's a HS sports reporter) I'm assuming he's fully healthy. 


And I have to say... his 2H has been extremely alarming. I really don't know what to think about this guy going forward anymore. I think it could go either way.

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6 hours ago, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

Make that 37 consecutive games with at least one K. He's going for Reynold's strikeout record. 


Sano is ahead of him in K's this year with about 40-50 less PA. 


And Story/Sano/Gallo are all striking out at significantly higher rates than him this season, even with this dreadful 2H collapse. 

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