Aaron Judge 2017 Outlook

[TopChuckie 166]

1 hour ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

This whole sample size thing is crap. It's random, and sometimes come up and in 75AB destroy the ball and vanish... Some come up and in 75AB destroy the ball and keep on going.

 

No one in this thread was dumb enough to think he'd be a .300 hitter. I think the best projection here is that he's basically Stanton... .265 or a little more with 50HR power in a great park with a young team. Leave it at that.

 

And Stanton is a $325M player, so I'll take it.  I think Judge's floor is Stanton though, not that he can't be less than Stanton, I just think he's likely to be at least Stanton because he has one year under his belt, thus he has room to develop, he hits the ball harder, sprays the ball well, walks more, and is likely to be healthier simply because Stanton has been very unable to stay healthy.

 

Also, HR Derby fatigue, shoulder injury, umps constantly adjusting the strike zone, and simply pressing during his first slump after becoming the biggest thing in baseball, all seem to be a very reasonable explanations for his slump, rather than lack of skills, and now he seems to be back to pretty much where he was pre-derby.  Maybe not hitting .330, but even .280 with equal HR capability, and some base stealing and good defense, all makes him at least as valuable as Stanton, as far as I'm concerned.

[absknicks 3,003]

Well he's already put up a better year in his rookie year than Stanton's ever had, so I certainly wouldn't put his ceiling at Stanton. I agree he's not a .300 hitter, but if he can cut the Ks down similarly to how Bryant, Springer and Stanton have done at similar ages I could see him being a .280-.290 hitter without sacrificing much power in the process. Obviously it could go the other way too and he could always been a 30-32% K rate guy, in which case he'll probably end up in that .250/.260 range.

Edited September 27, 2017 by absknicks

[BlueJaysIn2030 1,978]

54 minutes ago, TopChuckie said:

 

And Stanton is a $325M player, so I'll take it.  I think Judge's floor is Stanton though, not that he can't be less than Stanton, I just think he's likely to be at least Stanton because he has one year under his belt, thus he has room to develop, he hits the ball harder, sprays the ball well, walks more, and is likely to be healthier simply because Stanton has been very unable to stay healthy.

 

Also, HR Derby fatigue, shoulder injury, umps constantly adjusting the strike zone, and simply pressing during his first slump after becoming the biggest thing in baseball, all seem to be a very reasonable explanations for his slump, rather than lack of skills, and now he seems to be back to pretty much where he was pre-derby.  Maybe not hitting .330, but even .280 with equal HR capability, and some base stealing and good defense, all makes him at least as valuable as Stanton, as far as I'm concerned.

Gotta agree, if only based on Judge maybe being healthier. And yeah, .280 with 45-60HR as his "peak" years is fantastic... It's what most people have been expecting from Stanton every single year. He's awesome, and I'm on board. 

[absknicks 3,003]

 

From Dave Cameron's FanGraphs chat today; 

12:30

Corey: Now that we seen the best and worst of Judge in a 13 month span (twice), any expectations for what his baseline will be?

12:30

Dave Cameron: Stanton with more walks.

12:30

Dave Cameron: A top-3 MLB hitter, basically.

[jfazz23 2,530]

# 51

 

he actually has Altuve beat in every stat except Avg and SB.  SB dont seem to be a huge MVP stat tho

Judge has Runs, Rbis, OBP, Slugging, OPS

 

starting to think judge can win MVP

[rich22 610]

54 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

# 51

 

he actually has Altuve beat in every stat except Avg and SB.  SB dont seem to be a huge MVP stat tho

Judge has Runs, Rbis, OBP, Slugging, OPS

 

starting to think judge can win MVP

 

 

I'd agree, but I'm thinking Altuve's consistency might get him the win.  Many, if not all, of the voters had Altuve penciled in as the MVP 2-3 weeks ago.   He really hasn't done anything to lose the vote.  Now, here is the kicker, IF Judge keeps this up, and somehow the yanks make it to a play in game vs SOx on Monday, that may sway the voters to switch to Judge

[Low and Away 1,572]

16 minutes ago, rich22 said:

 

 

I'd agree, but I'm thinking Altuve's consistency might get him the win.  Many, if not all, of the voters had Altuve penciled in as the MVP 2-3 weeks ago.   He really hasn't done anything to lose the vote.  Now, here is the kicker, IF Judge keeps this up, and somehow the yanks make it to a play in game vs SOx on Monday, that may sway the voters to switch to Judge

MVP votes do not include any post season games so any game after Sunday doesn't count.

[osb_tensor 1,414]

Just now, Low and Away said:

MVP votes do not include any post season games so any game after Sunday doesn't count.

In their minds? It's not like they have to give specific justification on a per game basis. 

[rich22 610]

7 minutes ago, Low and Away said:

MVP votes do not include any post season games so any game after Sunday doesn't count.

 

and.....?   I know this, been following the game for 50 years.   Except Monday would count if there is a play in game.

 

If Judge has a big weekend and Yanks catch the sox, many voters will switch their votes to Judge

Edited September 29, 2017 by rich22

[Low and Away 1,572]

2 minutes ago, osb_tensor said:

In their minds? It's not like they have to give specific justification on a per game basis. 

By the rules. How it is enforced no idea.

[rich22 610]

6 minutes ago, osb_tensor said:

In their minds? It's not like they have to give specific justification on a per game basis. 

 

 

Votes have to be in prior to post season

[Low and Away 1,572]

4 minutes ago, rich22 said:

 

and.....?   I know this, been following the game for 50 years.   Except Monday would count if there is a play in game

A play in game is still post season though.

[rich22 610]

8 minutes ago, Low and Away said:

MVP votes do not include any post season games so any game after Sunday doesn't count.

 

 

If tied, Monday would count as regular season game 163

[rich22 610]

2 minutes ago, Low and Away said:

A play in game is still post season though.

 

 

nope   Guidry won #25 vs Sox on game 163.  in 1978

Edited September 29, 2017 by rich22

[Funkenstein 979]

On 3/31/2017 at 11:12 AM, Folarin said:

Some dude just dropped 1/10th of his FAAB bread on him in my big $ league. Seems aggressive.

or the biggest bargain ever!

 

 

Theres some interesting reading at the beginning of this thread.

Edited September 29, 2017 by Funkenstein

[Low and Away 1,572]

1 minute ago, rich22 said:

 

 

nope   Guidry won #25 vs Sox on game 163

Yup because both the Twins and Yankees made the post season.  All I heard watching the Twins game today was the Twins in the post season first time since 2010.

[rich22 610]

6 minutes ago, Low and Away said:

Yup because both the Twins and Yankees made the post season.  All I heard watching the Twins game today was the Twins in the post season first time since 2010.

 

 

not sure then.   Doesn't matter, won't be a game anyway

Edited September 29, 2017 by rich22

[Low and Away 1,572]

Votes would need to be in Monday as the wildcard post season game for the AL is Tuesday October 3.  NL is Oct 4th.

http://m.mlb.com/postseason-schedule

[rich22 610]

2 minutes ago, Low and Away said:

Votes would need to be in Monday as the wildcard post season game for the AL is Tuesday October 3.  NL is Oct 4th.

http://m.mlb.com/postseason-schedule

 

 

IF there is no play in game.  Which there won't be.  Play in games are regular season games #163.  

Edited September 29, 2017 by rich22

[Low and Away 1,572]

A play in game would be if the Angels and Twins tied for the second wild card berth. 

[exm 248]

1 hour ago, jfazz23 said:

# 51

 

he actually has Altuve beat in every stat except Avg and SB.  SB dont seem to be a huge MVP stat tho

Judge has Runs, Rbis, OBP, Slugging, OPS

 

starting to think judge can win MVP

 

Altuve also leads in WAR.

 

I think Judge should win it, but voters might think ROY is a consolation price.

[rich22 610]

Major League Baseball[edit]

See also: List of Major League Baseball tie-breakers and Major League Baseball tie-breaking procedures

One-game playoffs are currently used in Major League Baseball (MLB). When two or more MLB teams are tied for a division championship or the wild card playoff berth (1995–2011, or starting in 2012, the second only) at the end of the regular season, a one-game playoff is used to determine the winner.

If a tie were (from 1995-2011) a two-way tie for a division championship and both tied teams' have records higher than those records of the second-place teams in the other divisions, or (from 2012-present) between the two division non-champions with the untied best record, there is no one-game playoff. In this scenario, the winner of the season series between the two teams is deemed to win the tie for purposes of playoff seeding.^[1] Through the 2008 season, home-field advantage for one-game playoffs was determined by a coin flip, but effective in 2009, home advantage is based on a set of performance criteria, with the first tiebreaker being head-to-head record.^[2]

For statistical purposes, one-game playoffs are considered part of the regular season. The result of the playoff is included in the regular season standings and individual player statistics are included along with the statistics for the rest of the season. One significant playoff-like deviation from normal regular season games in force as of 2007 is that six-man umpire crews are used (as opposed to the four-man crews of the regular season).^[3]Also, television broadcasting rights for all are negotiated by MLB - since 2012, the network owning the rights to the Wild Card Game for a particular league has also had the rights to any tiebreaker(s) that might occur in that league.

 

[CrypTviLL 838]

I'm here to comment on how amazing Judge has been all year. He is simply incredible. I am outsider looking in as someone who only has followed him minimally this year. Congrats to the kid and to the Yankees on this one. I do hope he has continued success.

[rich22 610]

Just now, exm said:

 

Altuve also leads in WAR.

 

I think Judge should win it, but voters might think ROY is a consolation price.

 

 

Does he?    ESPN said there are 2 separate sites that determine WAR.   One had both at 7.3  the other had Judge ahead in WAR

[Low and Away 1,572]

23 minutes ago, rich22 said:

 

and.....?   I know this, been following the game for 50 years.   Except Monday would count if there is a play in game.

 

If Judge has a big weekend and Yanks catch the sox, many voters will switch their votes to Judge

 

Your point here could never have happen as Boston won the AL East and are the number 3 seed

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/standings/postseason-picture/