Jump to content
NBC Sports Edge Forums

Sterling Shepard 2017 Season Outlook


Recommended Posts

683/8 for a rookie is not a bad stat line at all, especially when he was between Beckham and Cruz. I think he could of had a little more if it wasn't for Cruz, so what type of leap can we expect in 2017 with Cruz out of the picture? I think his yardage will increase a nice bit, 900 to 1050 perhaps give or take...But I think his tds will stay about the same. Guessing between 6 to 8 if Eli struggles a bit, maybe 8 to 10 if Eli is back on track and the fact Cruz isn't pulling his attention in yet another direction. I think Beckham and Shepard can make for a really nice duo in 2017 if Eli can focus a bit more and return to normal. Shepard is another keeper for me and I'm pretty happy about that 

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 851
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

He's restricted to the slot, no doubt. But, you run him open on a cross or get him in space off a well-disguised screen and he has the shiftiness thru traffic to take something short and break it. I really like him and I think they find more ways to use him. Not an elite physical specimen, but he has the intangibles, he's a football player first.

Link to post
Share on other sites

This thread outlook has changed considerably since last year.. Cruz was a nonfactor to Shepard stats. He had 72 targets.

 

Giants defense stepped up. Passing attempts by Eli dropped to 598. TD's thrown by Eli dropped to 26. Odell increased target share and took in 168 targets. It seems like Eli's stts normalized to their mean last season. Shepard could become relevant if he's gets more involved in the red zone but on a game by game basis I don't see him being consistent. I expect low yardage below 1k. Last season I made the argument that Shepard would need to see an extraordinary amount of targets and TD's to be come fantasy relevant due to his low yards per reception and that seemed to be the case last year. 10.5 yards per reception. 100 targets and 683 yards. I'd rather spend my later round picks on WR's that have more upside than Shepard's. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm going by what I watched, when I watched the games last year there were many times it seemed like Eli was forcing it to Cruz and or Beckham when Shepard had some openings. 100 targets means nothing when a handful of them were horrible throws, or bad targets. Eli was all over the place last year and hopefully he's more focused this year. I feel Shepard can easily improve his yardage this year. 

Edited by Savatage79
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Savatage79 said:

I'm going by what I watched, when I watched the games last year there were many times it seemed like Eli was forcing it to Cruz and or Beckham when Shepard had some openings. 100 targets means nothing when a handful of them were horrible throws, or bad targets. Eli was all over the place last year and hopefully he's more focused this year. I feel Shepard can easily improve his yardage this year. 

 

61.9% catch rate was higher than Eli Manning's completion rate. What factors do you think will lead to Sterling Shepard having a fantasy relevant season? Why is his yards per reception, targets, yardage going to increase significantly to put him in low end WR2 or even WR3 status. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, boltup15 said:

 

61.9% catch rate was higher than Eli Manning's completion rate. What factors do you think will lead to Sterling Shepard having a fantasy relevant season? Why is his yards per reception, targets, yardage going to increase significantly to put him in low end WR2 or even WR3 status. 

 

Cruz's 72 targets have to go somewhere.  I'd think that Shepard would get at least 25 of them.

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, 96mnc said:

 

Cruz's 72 targets have to go somewhere.  I'd think that Shepard would get at least 25 of them.

 

That implies Shepard has a 33% target share and that Cruz being gone means that all of his targets are only going to the WR1/2 and TE's that were there before and no targets are going to his replacement. On 100 receptions Shepard moves his yardage on the season to 1050. With his 100 receptions he'd need 160 targets.  

Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, boltup15 said:

 

61.9% catch rate was higher than Eli Manning's completion rate. What factors do you think will lead to Sterling Shepard having a fantasy relevant season? Why is his yards per reception, targets, yardage going to increase significantly to put him in low end WR2 or even WR3 status. 

Uh.. Because he was fantasy relevant last year with 700 yards and 8 tds? Unless you're in a 4 man league but in my leagues he was a great flex or wr3 

Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Savatage79 said:

Uh.. Because he was fantasy relevant last year with 700 yards and 8 tds? Unless you're in a 4 man league but in my leagues he was a great flex or wr3 

 

Great flex or WR3? He was neither in my 10/12 man leagues. He was dropped in every single one. And no one picked him up. And for good reason. 700 yards and 8 TD's isn't fantasy relevant. He averaged a whopping 43 ypg. 

Edited by boltup15
Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, boltup15 said:

 

Great flex or WR3? He was neither in my 10/12 man leagues. He was dropped in every single one. And no one picked him up. And for good reason. 700 yards and 8 TD's isn't fantasy relevant. He averaged a whopping 43 ypg. 

3 wr and 2 flex calls for 700 and 8 sometimes. Just lookin back, 11.8 week one, 18.7 week 2, 15.8 week 3... He had slow weeks after but he's a rookie, that happens.. Nobody is expecting him to be the next randy moss. But that is decent production that can be improved upon. 

Edited by Savatage79
Link to post
Share on other sites
43 minutes ago, boltup15 said:

 

That implies Shepard has a 33% target share and that Cruz being gone means that all of his targets are only going to the WR1/2 and TE's that were there before and no targets are going to his replacement. On 100 receptions Shepard moves his yardage on the season to 1050. With his 100 receptions he'd need 160 targets.  

 

Unless a improvement on the TE position and the 3rd wr is made there's no reason for 25 of those vacant 72 targets not to be distributed to the second year slot receiver.

 

105 2016 targets + 25 new 2017 targets = 130 targets.  130/598 attempts = 21.7 target share.

 

Edit: just saw that you were arguing against him being a wr2 or wr3.  Not saying that he is,  just pointing out where the additional targets could/should come from. 

 

Any change in yards per reception will likely be driven by OL improvements allowing more time for the WR to get down field.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Look at even guys like John Brown who have had relevancy, brown hasnt even had 8 TD's.  He's had 700, 500 and 1000 yard seasons, 5, 7 and 2 tds... Shepard is in a similar boat for me overall, 683 and 8 is nothing to sneeze at for a guy that isn't a high draft pick. Plus like said above those additional targets will give him even more opportunities. Unless someone is in a 2 wr league, or a 3 wr and no flex then sure Shepard isn't worth much consideration. But most leagues with a few wr and a few flex he's absolutely relevant. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, 96mnc said:

 

Unless a improvement on the TE position and the 3rd wr is made there's no reason for 25 of those vacant 72 targets not to be distributed to the second year slot receiver.

 

105 2016 targets + 25 new 2017 targets = 130 targets.  130/598 attempts = 21.7 target share.

 

Edit: just saw that you were arguing against him being a wr2 or wr3.  Not saying that he is,  just pointing out where the additional targets could/should come from. 

 

Any change in yards per reception will likely be driven by OL improvements allowing more time for the WR to get down field.

He's saying not even as a flex, which is my beef. Definitely not a WR2, maybe maybe.. Maybe borderline WR3 but he's definitely and easily flex material and that is where I'm at with it. I think anyone who snags 8 TD's as a rook is worth being curious about when they could get even a few more targets 

Link to post
Share on other sites
31 minutes ago, Savatage79 said:

Week 9 12.5, week 10 12.7, week 11 13.5, week 13 10.10, week 15 13.6, week 16 15.8...

Yea looks like a guy who will have zero relevancy in 2017

 

Sure he had some decent weeks. Also had a lot of bad weeks. Also had a 4 week stretch of less than 32 yards. On the season he averaged 43 yards per game. And those weeks you posted are pretty bad games for a ppr WR. You'd hope he'd at least have one big game. 

 

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, Savatage79 said:

He's saying not even as a flex, which is my beef. Definitely not a WR2, maybe maybe.. Maybe borderline WR3 but he's definitely and easily flex material and that is where I'm at with it. I think anyone who snags 8 TD's as a rook is worth being curious about when they could get even a few more targets 

 

Flex for me in a 2 WR 2 RB 10/12 team league needs to average more than 43 yards in a season. I expect his upside to be 130 targets which after a 62% catch rate leads to 80 receptions. And with his role as a slot receiver he'll get 840 yards. Maybe his ypr increases to 13 and he'll get 1040 yards in a very bullish scenario where the Giants play from behind most games. He'll also need to be reliant on a bunch of TD's.. which is possible. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, boltup15 said:

 

Flex for me in a 2 WR 2 RB 10/12 team league needs to average more than 43 yards in a season. I expect his upside to be 130 targets which after a 62% catch rate leads to 80 receptions. And with his role as a slot receiver he'll get 840 yards. Maybe his ypr increases to 13 and he'll get 1040 yards in a very bullish scenario where the Giants play from behind most games. He'll also need to be reliant on a bunch of TD's.. which is possible. 

Well I'm speaking from a 3 wr, 2 flex 10 man league in which one cant be that choosy when lookin for a 4th or 5th wr on their team in a lineup 

Edited by Savatage79
Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Savatage79 said:

Well I'm speaking from a 3 wr, 2 flex 10 man league in which one cant be that choosy when lookin for a 4th or 5th wr on their team in a lineup 

 

Ok ... well if it's 2 RB 3 WR 2 flex then yes... Shepard would be fantasy relevant. But in the standard 2 WR 2 RB 1 flex not so much. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, boltup15 said:

 

Ok ... well if it's 2 RB 3 WR 2 flex then yes... Shepard would be fantasy relevant. But in the standard 2 WR 2 RB 1 flex not so much. 

3 wr, 2rb, 2 flex is what I run. This is why alot of these discussions are so mangled because everyone is lookin at players with so many different league setups. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
45 minutes ago, Savatage79 said:

Look at even guys like John Brown who have had relevancy, brown hasnt even had 8 TD's.  He's had 700, 500 and 1000 yard seasons, 5, 7 and 2 tds... Shepard is in a similar boat for me overall, 683 and 8 is nothing to sneeze at for a guy that isn't a high draft pick. Plus like said above those additional targets will give him even more opportunities. Unless someone is in a 2 wr league, or a 3 wr and no flex then sure Shepard isn't worth much consideration. But most leagues with a few wr and a few flex he's absolutely relevant. 

John Brown averaged about 10 YPT in his healthy 2015. Shepard was at a meager 6 1/2.
The two do not compare. One is a big play threat waiting to happen, the other is not. 
The hesitancy to draft Shepard comes from the belief that he offers almost no upside. He's a safe WR4 if he gets the volume but it's hard to get excited about him when you can replace him with a better player on the waiver wire by week 4. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, CL3VELANDBR0WNS said:

John Brown averaged about 10 YPT in his healthy 2015. Shepard was at a meager 6 1/2.
The two do not compare. One is a big play threat waiting to happen, the other is not. 
The hesitancy to draft Shepard comes from the belief that he offers almost no upside. He's a safe WR4 if he gets the volume but it's hard to get excited about him when you can replace him with a better player on the waiver wire by week 4. 

And how many big plays do you see every game for brown? I'll take a guy who can regularly score some tds over a guy who is a one trick deep threat pony. I like John Brown but my point is who Shepard is the clear number 2 and I feel that can open more doors for him overall 

Edited by Savatage79
Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.


×
×
  • Create New...