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DeMarco Murray 2017 Season Outlook


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2 hours ago, jbshaw said:

Forgive me, but I swear ffc did a breakdown of Henry's second half and he had a bigger decline than Murray (might have just been about the same). I remember someone blowing that argument out of the water as well.

 

People will see what they want to see.

 

Murray had a huge number of carries vs. Henry.

 

Give Henry comparable touches in comparable gameflow to Murray and Henry will be better.

 

Brief scripted carries in the 2nd half is not tge same as being fed the rock so you can wear the defense down.

 

I doubt henry had worse than a 3.2ypc averafe in the 2nd half and we know he didnt in the last 5 games of last season when the titans started feeding henrt more and he started feasting to the tune of 5ypc.

Edited by DerrickHenrysCleats
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5 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

People will see what they want to see.

 

Murray had a huge number of carries vs. Henry.

 

Give Henry comparable touches in comparable gameflow to Murray and Henry will be better.

 

Brief scripted carries in the 2nd half is not tge same as being fed the rock so you can wear the defense down.

 

I doubt henry had worse than a 3.2ypc averafe in the 2nd half and we know he didnt in the last 5 games of last season when the titans started feeding henrt more and he started feasting to the tune of 5ypc.

Unfortunately Henry is going to be no better than a big time share unless Murray gets hurt. He's a good pick where he's being drafted because he has big upside but he's not going to be consistent and reliable unless Murray gets hurt. The issue with Murray is that you need to take Henry probably a round early to handcuff. So you are potentially spending a 2nd and 7th round pick on the Titans backfield. If one gets hurt the other could be real good. But the risk remains that if it does become a complete time share, you are starting the entire time share. Not sure I want to be in position to start 2 titans or spend 2 picks on a potential committee backfield. 

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2 hours ago, markrc99 said:

 

RT points out how lopsided the snap count was in favor of Murray in the 2nd half of the season. Consider that Derrick Henry had 110 carries on the season, but only 37 through the first seven games. Yeah, so 73 carries over the final nine games. However, he may have been inactive week 9 and got no touches week 11. So, it appears that he missed two games. If we consider games played or usage instead, Henry's carries nearly doubled from his first 7 games, regardless of snap count. If you're of the mind that what went before is what we should expect, then Henry is going to have those 110 carries by week 10 or 11. 

 

Henry's increased carries/snap ratio later in the season is a good observation.  Just not sure what it means, if anything for prospective Murray owners.

 

We already know that Murray outsnapped  Henry more than 3-1 consistently over the entire season.  That means that Henry's higher carries/snaps ratio later in the season did not diminish Murray's snaps one bit.  In other words, Murray was on the field to receive carries and targets just as much whether Henry was carrying the ball more during his limited snaps or not.

 

If we compare Murray's start of the season with the end of the season, we don't see any pattern of Murray suffering a loss of carries because Henry's carries increased from the start of the season to the end:

 

Murray's carries Games 1-3:

 

41

 

Murray's carries Games 14-16:

 

43

 

So Murray actually carried the ball more during the period when Henry's carries/snap ratio increased.

 

Maybe game script/circumstances accounted for some of Henry's increased carries when he got his consistently limited snaps.  Over the course of the season, maybe the CS trusted Henry more to actually carry the ball when they put him in.  Who knows.

 

I believe that the only conclusion we can draw from Henry's increased carries relative to his consistently limited snaps is that Henry is likely to see more carries in 2017 than he did in 2016.  The same data doesn't mean that Henry's increased carries will diminish Murray's opportunities or production much, if at all.   The CS clearly wanted Murray on the field far more than Henry at all times during 2016.  Given the success TN achieved riding Murray, it is difficult to see in the data or otherwise why the CS would alter their thinking for 2017.

 

 

 

 

Edited by Rolling Thunder
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23 minutes ago, Mattice1 said:

So you are potentially spending a 2nd and 7th round pick on the Titans backfield.

 

You would have to spend a 2nd and a pick at the 5th / 6th turn to lock up the backfield.  Drafting Murray means you are drafting toward the end of the first round of a 12 teamer.  Your last chance to reliably acquire Henry would be at the 5th / 6th turn.  Henry most likely won't be there for you at the 7th / 8th turn. 

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1 minute ago, Rolling Thunder said:

 

You would have to spend a 2nd and a pick at the 5th / 6th turn to lock up the backfield.  Drafting Murray means you are drafting toward the end of the first round of a 12 teamer.  Your last chance to reliably acquire Henry would be at the 5th / 6th turn.  Henry most likely won't be there for you at the 7th / 8th turn. 

Yea, if you take Murray at 10 to 14 pick, then you are right. Henry's adp is late 6th so you'd have to draft him late 5th or early 6th. Either way, the point remains that you'd be using 2 early picks. While both are good and if either get hurt the other would be really good, it's not a Larry Johnson/priest Holmes combo where you want to pony up 2 early picks imo. I'll be passing on Murray early and probably let the Murray owner pull Henry early rather than taking him in the 5th or 6th since his value is tied to Murray injury. 

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1 hour ago, TX Babe Ruth said:

Henry is going in the 6th or more rounds.

I got him in 8th and greater rounds in 3 of my drafts.

I have not seen him go sooner than 8th rd.

 

Depends on league size. 12 teamer mocks I've done I see him go as high as 6th but most often taken in 7th.   Then again mocks are all over the place this time of year compared to what will actually happen after pre-season.  I do agree with many on this board that he'll probably end up going in late 5 th early sixth for Murray owners when all is said and done.  He may slide a little if Murray owner doesn't nab him.

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2 minutes ago, Bugs bunny said:

Depends on league size. 12 teamer mocks I've done I see him go as high as 6th but most often taken in 7th.   Then again mocks are all over the place this time of year compared to what will actually happen after pre-season.  I do agree with many on this board that he'll probably end up going in late 5 th early sixth for Murray owners when all is said and done.  He may slide a little if Murray owner doesn't nab him.

Yeah, I'm speaking in terms of current standings. I don't know what after pre-season holds for Henry as well as other players.

He's a steal right now, IMHO and he's going after the 7th round. The perks of drafting early in the season.

I own Murray in one of my 3 leagues(already drafted) but own Henry in all(drafted in 8th plus rd). Murray's owners just ain't checking for him.

I see the same for Shady owners, they are not handcuffing him, either. A lot of people don't believe in handcuffs.

 

 

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DeMarco Murray is a stud. It's true that he wasn't nearly as effective the last 6 games vs the first 10 games, It's also true that he has a super talented back-up. It's also also true that the Titans (for whatever you can take from YOY schedules) have a top 5 favorable rush D schedule. Given the Titans are expected to score a bunch this year, that bodes well for both backs for those taking a stab at Henry in the round 6/7 area (I'd pass in the 5/6 for him, consider in the 7th).

 

I do see Murray as a moderately elevated injury risk for a guy who's only missed one game the past 3 years. He is 29 which isn't bad, but he is a pretty physical runner who has a minor hammy "tweak" right now and wore down a bit last year. Those can build up.  However, Murray will remain the lead back in this offense for the time being. If he gets hurt or is super ineffective, then Henry has a chance to make this more of a committee. If Murray does stay healthy though, I can't see him getting less than 15-16 carries per game, the larger share of goal line, and the large majority of pass catching work. You're probably looking at a 16 game floor of 260 carries and 40 rec. He would likely clear those numbers as well. That kind of volume should yield over 1350 yards. And in this offense he'll have a shot at 10 td's. 

 

I think Murray is in play around picks 10-15, as the rb5-7 off the board. He's going to have plenty of volume and a large goal line share in a good offense. My only worry would be if Murray got hurt, but basically every football player has that issue. He's a buy for me. 

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Regarding his age, it is often that  noted he and McCoy are the same age but there is a significant difference in their mileage. Murray entered the league in 2011--McCoy did so in 2009. Due to this Murray has 1,420 career regular season carries and 268 receptions; McCoy has 1,898 carries and 382 receptions. Murray has played in two playoff games while McCoy has been in three.

 

McCoy is the superior player but I note the above because Murray's mileage this year will be analogous to where McCoy was heading into 2015 and McCoy has been very good (when healthy) the last two years. I am not concerned about Murray's age this season.

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Murray contract with the Titans is pretty interesting. He made 6M last year and he is going to make another 6M this year. If Titans decide to keep him for the next season of 2019-2020 hes scheduled to bank another 6M - I think thats pretty cheap for a stud like Murray... they got Henry though that could possibly provide the same production cheaper, so what do they do with Murray?

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Titans coach Mike Mularkey said DeMarco Murray (hamstring) is "close" to a return.

Murray has been sidelined by a hamstring injury for a week, but he was able to get in some work during individual drills on Monday. "We're easing him back into it," Mularkey said. "We'll see how he feels after what he did and hopefully we'll get him out here (on Tuesday)." Derrick Henry has reportedly shined during Murray's absence, but the veteran still is the favorite for the lead role.

 

 

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1 hour ago, MariGOATA said:

Murray contract with the Titans is pretty interesting. He made 6M last year and he is going to make another 6M this year. If Titans decide to keep him for the next season of 2019-2020 hes scheduled to bank another 6M - I think thats pretty cheap for a stud like Murray... they got Henry though that could possibly provide the same production cheaper, so what do they do with Murray?

Wow, he's only making $6 million per year? I think the cowboys were offering him the same or a little more?...

I know that's one mistake he regrets signing with the Eagles. He tried to stick it to the cowboys but stuck his finger in the wrong hole. (gulp)

He's in a better position with the Titans, though.  

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54 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

Titans coach Mike Mularkey said DeMarco Murray (hamstring) is "close" to a return.

Murray has been sidelined by a hamstring injury for a week, but he was able to get in some work during individual drills on Monday. "We're easing him back into it," Mularkey said. "We'll see how he feels after what he did and hopefully we'll get him out here (on Tuesday)." Derrick Henry has reportedly shined during Murray's absence, but the veteran still is the favorite for the lead role.

 

 

You got to bold the entire story not pieces of it.lol I bolded the main objective for you and increased the font size. :P

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Murray is close to return but the Titans are giving him a little bit more rest. If you drafted Murray and not Henry, you probably want to slap yourself. :P

 

Source: TitansOnline.com - Jim Wyatt

Tennessee Titans RB DeMarco Murray (hamstring) will not play in the Titans' first preseason game this week, according to head coach Mike Mularkey.

 

Image result for animated gif slap yourself

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4 minutes ago, svtballa said:

29 years old Has a MONSTER waiting behind him and now has been sidelined over a week with a soft tissue injury.   People are really drafting this guy in late round 1?!?!?!?! 

Actually 2nd round but not handcuffing him is what I don't understand, especially when Henry gets enough volume to play in the flex and Murray at RB1. 

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  • 2 weeks later...
On ‎8‎/‎6‎/‎2017 at 11:16 AM, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

People will see what they want to see.

 

Murray had a huge number of carries vs. Henry.

 

Give Henry comparable touches in comparable gameflow to Murray and Henry will be better.

 

Brief scripted carries in the 2nd half is not tge same as being fed the rock so you can wear the defense down.

 

I doubt henry had worse than a 3.2ypc averafe in the 2nd half and we know he didnt in the last 5 games of last season when the titans started feeding henrt more and he started feasting to the tune of 5ypc.

too bad henry is behind a top 5 fantasy RB :P

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I've been reading more and more articles about how age 29 is when the wheels start to fall off of rb's. This is still a pretty great set up for Murray, but he's dropped on my draft board. I don't like most of the rb's anyways, so I'd take Murray in the pick 15-20 range, where you already have a stud wr or rb1 to lean on, but I can no longer view him as a back-end of round 1 guy. 

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Something else I think we should be considering is his workload - not just in the NFL but he was a heavily used RB in college with 759 carries and over 900+ touches. 

 

While he was used rather sparingly in Dallas before that huge season - he has more tread on the tyres than some would believe.  

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 It seems like every year unless a guy is 25 or 26 he's either too young or too old. Murray and McCoy are too old and ancient at 29. Gordon, Howard are too young and unproven. Maybe there's some truth in those arguments but I think they are over-emphasized. 

 

In terms of Murray, I believe Henry getting a few more touches actually helps Murray stay fresh and not get as banged up down the stretch again. Im all in on him this year. Take Henry in the 6th or 7th so even if Murray goes down you will still have a Top 10 back. 

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Anyone taking Howard ahead of Murray?  All of these RBs have so many question marks, it makes me just want to go for the young and ascending Michael Thomas.  The question is who to pair him with in the second round though.  Might go for the youth with Howard instead of Jordy/Murray but it doesn't feel right passing on Jordy.  I always lean towards youth in these debates.  

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