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Charlie Blackmon 2017 Outlook


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What are you thinking this year?

Big jump in HRs, hit really well away, had a crazy month or two... Stolen bases down, 30 years old now. Crowded OF, but he has to play...

Are you invested? 

I'm thinking a line of 25/20, .290 seems about right for this guy. A lot of things went right for him last year, but nothing was really unbelievable in my opinion. 

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He's the leadoff man for the team that plays 81 games per year at Coors Field. Good power, good speed and baserunning ability, great offensive supporting cast and a proven track record. He actually hit for a higher average vs. LHP (.331) than he did vs. RHP (.320) so he'll never be sat due to the pitching matchup. What's not to love?

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290 seems low.  he hit 313 on the road. hes not just a coors field hitter. my thoughts are...

 

100-110runs

310 avg

28 homers

80 rbi

17SB

 

and i think he can actually crack 30 homers in coors field and his avg could be in the 320s again.  dont think he steals more than 20 though.

 

Edited by jfazz23
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Just now, TheBoatmen said:

A possible trade candidate hurts his value a bit.  There is no where he could be traded to that would provide the same value.  However if he is not traded he could be in a crowded outfield.  He should be a 20/20 though.

the crowded outfield business would hurt David Dahl before blackmon

 

and as i stated, he hit 313 on the road last year with 17 of his homers being on the road, and 12 at home.  if he were traded at the deadline it wouldnt be the worst thing in the world

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Just now, kidtwentytwo said:

Rockies fancy themselves as contenders.  If they are healthy I don't see a reason why they can't be. 

pitching i suppose, they might just out slug people at home though.

but rockies should be fun to follow this year

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My problem with Blackmon is that a lot of his value is tied to SB .. and SB for aging players can be hard to count on. He also only has 1 season where he hit anywhere near 30 HR. I'm expecting a regression in power numbers, and i think he's more of a 20 SB guy now, as opposed to the 30+ he was a threat for a few years back. 

 

He was an underrated 5 cat stud last year (fell to the 3rd/4th round in 2016) .. he's not coming with any such discount in 2017. So I'll be passing.

 

 

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1 hour ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

What are you thinking this year?

Big jump in HRs, hit really well away, had a crazy month or two... Stolen bases down, 30 years old now. Crowded OF, but he has to play...

Are you invested? 

I'm thinking a line of 25/20, .290 seems about right for this guy. A lot of things went right for him last year, but nothing was really unbelievable in my opinion. 

 

I think that's mostly on point but I think the BA is going to be closer to .310-.320.

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12 minutes ago, EmbargoLifted said:

My problem with Blackmon is that a lot of his value is tied to SB .. and SB for aging players can be hard to count on. He also only has 1 season where he hit anywhere near 30 HR. I'm expecting a regression in power numbers, and i think he's more of a 20 SB guy now, as opposed to the 30+ he was a threat for a few years back. 

 

He was an underrated 5 cat stud last year (fell to the 3rd/4th round in 2016) .. he's not coming with any such discount in 2017. So I'll be passing.

 

 

same especially as a top 15 pick

 

17sb 9 cs, age, is enough info for to stay away... would much rather have carlos 

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Even if he steals 15-20 he's still a stud.  Hits 25 homers.  Bats in 70.  scores 100 runs.  Hits .300.  If he's healthy, that's his floor. 

 

He could just as soon hit .330 and score 130 runs healthy.  Hitting in Coors field raises the floor so high, and Blackmon is a good hitter on the road as well

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15 minutes ago, EmbargoLifted said:

My problem with Blackmon is that a lot of his value is tied to SB .. and SB for aging players can be hard to count on. He also only has 1 season where he hit anywhere near 30 HR. I'm expecting a regression in power numbers, and i think he's more of a 20 SB guy now, as opposed to the 30+ he was a threat for a few years back. 

 

He was an underrated 5 cat stud last year (fell to the 3rd/4th round in 2016) .. he's not coming with any such discount in 2017. So I'll be passing.

 

 

 

Part of the reason his stolen bases were down is because he had so many xbh.  If the homers drop, he should be good for at least 20-25 SBs at least.   I don't get the age thing since he's still only 30.  With 650 plus plate appearances, I would be surprised if he stole less than 20.

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11 minutes ago, kidtwentytwo said:

Even if he steals 15-20 he's still a stud.  Hits 25 homers.  Bats in 70.  scores 100 runs.  Hits .300.  If he's healthy, that's his floor. 

 

He could just as soon hit .330 and score 130 runs healthy.  Hitting in Coors field raises the floor so high, and Blackmon is a good hitter on the road as well

y the spike in avg?

he was high 280 the 2 years prior along with 18 hr avg

 

so his floor is closer to 285 15hrs 15sb still solid but not borderline 1st rder for me

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12 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

y the spike in avg?

he was high 280 the 2 years prior along with 18 hr avg

 

so his floor is closer to 285 15hrs 15sb still solid but not borderline 1st rder for me

he hit more than 15 home runs on the road last year (17).  what makes you think his floor (if healthy) is 15?

 

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19 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

he hit more than 15 home runs on the road last year (17).  what makes you think his floor (if healthy) is 15?

 

 

A full season of PAs (without splitting home/road) is still a small sample size -- now when you split it, it's borderline tiny.  How many HRs did he hit on the road in 2014 & 2015?

 

Edited by EmbargoLifted
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21 minutes ago, EmbargoLifted said:

 

A full season of PAs (without splitting home/road) is still a small sample size -- now when you split it, it's borderline tiny.  How many HRs did he hit on the road in 2014 & 2015?

 

late bloomer.  hes gonna be one of those guys with a short prime...but it will still be a good 3-5 years when you look at it.

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Players improve and regress.  The same player in 2014 isn't the same one in 2017.  His average has slowly climbed since 2013.  I think he's become a better hitter.  In Coors, throw babip out the window.  

 

In nfbc turners Adp is about 11 where as blackmons is about 16.  Blackmon has a really tight window of where he goes.  Usually in between 12 & 19.  Rarely goes outside of that. Turner is all over the place.  He's fallen to the 2nd round and he's been taken 1st overall (LOL).

 

blackmon will hit leadoff getting more at bats than anyone else in the league in Coors.  Rockies lineup is better on paper this year than last.  They are trying to be a softball team again.  They may not run as much as they have in the past, so Blackmons 30-+ sb days are probably over...but he should still be strong to elite everywhere else 

Edited by kidtwentytwo
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11 minutes ago, kidtwentytwo said:

Players improve and regress.  The same player in 2014 isn't the same one in 2017.  His average has slowly climbed since 2013.  I think he's become a better hitter.  In Coors, throw babip out the window.  

 

In nfbc turners Adp is about 11 where as blackmons is about 16.  Blackmon has a really right window of where he goes.  Usually in between 12 & 18.  Rarely goes outside of that. Turner is all over the place.  He's fallen to the 2nd round and he's been taken 1st overall (LOL).

 

blackmon will hit leadoff getting more at bats than anyone else in the league in Coors.  Rockies lineup is better on paper this year than last.  They are trying to be a softball team again.  They may not run as much as they have in the past, so Blackmons 30-+ sb days are probably over...but he should still be strong to elite everywhere else 

this was said perfectly IMO.  im not expecting 40 SB, more like 17-20.  but i think the 25-30 homer power is legit and so is the 310+ avg.  

 

hes now in his prime, probably for a couple more years, so you cant really compare him to 2014 him as you stated.

thanks kidtwentytwo

Edited by jfazz23
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1 minute ago, jfazz23 said:

this was said perfectly IMO.  im not expecting 40 SB, more like 17-20.  but i think the 25-30 homer power is legit and so is the 310+ avg.  

 

hes now in his prime, probably for a couple more years, so you cant really compare him to 2014 him as you stated.

thanks

 

I disagree. He's had one season where he's hit anywhere near 30 HR (small sample size). I believe his power has improved from previous seasons .. instead of being a 15HR hitter, he's now likely in the ~20 HR tier. I wouldn't pay for 25-30 HRs in 2017 though.

 

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Just now, EmbargoLifted said:

 

I disagree. He's had one season where he's hit anywhere near 30 HR (small sample size). I believe his power has improved from previous seasons .. instead of being a 15HR hitter, he's now likely in the ~20 HR tier. I wouldn't pay for 25-30 HRs in 2017 though.

 

fair enough.  and i reread my post and the "thanks" at the end wasnt directed towards you in a sarcastic way, it was meant for kidtwentytwo.  my apologies if it sounded like i was being a jerk, was not my intention.

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13 hours ago, EmbargoLifted said:

 

A full season of PAs (without splitting home/road) is still a small sample size -- now when you split it, it's borderline tiny.  How many HRs did he hit on the road in 2014 & 2015?

 

 

10 in 2015, to 7 at home.  6 in 2014, to 13 at home.  Over three year, 33 on the road and 32 at home.  Now, I can understand setting a lowish floor for stolen bases, but the power is real and I don't see anything in his profile that's indicative of any downward spike.

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