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Adrian Peterson 2017 Season Outlook


FlashGordon401
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1 hour ago, meverett85 said:

 

Obviously he is worth grabbing off of waivers....the question is over who else and at what pick?

 

He looked terrible last year before he had season ending surgery.....he is well past the RB cliff in terms of age, carries, abuse.....the Arizona offensive line generates .77 yards before contact this season.

 

New Orleans obviously saw plenty of AP and decided to move on. So that is probably what people are basing their skepticism on.

 

Yeah I get that and it's totally fair (appreciate the balanced reply, by the way).  I guess what gets me is how certain some people are.  It's as if they were stating a fact, or like they've seen him at every practice and he's not looked good or something.

 

Do I have faith in him?  I think it's 50/50 that he performs to a decent level the rest of the year.  I'm actually not putting a claim on him in either of my redraft leagues as I don't have someone I'd want to let go for him and I don't see him putting up the numbers he did two years ago even if he is successful.  But I'm also not pretending that I know exactly how it's going to play out.

Edited by Dream On
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He should be the #2 add this week right after McKinnon and is worth over 25% FAAB.

 

It looks like he's going to get 15 carries per game and any RB getting that workload is a high priority WW pickup.

 

Yes he could be done and poop the bed but that's true with any RB WW pickup. Everyone thought Devontae Booker was going to blow up last year and it didn't work out. Nothing is guaranteed on the WW and you throw darts at guys who just had significant touches open up.  AP is likely going to get 15 touches a game and he was a top 5 overall fantasy pick just last year.

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8 hours ago, Knicks2689 said:

I don't have him anywhere nor did I draft or drop him. He's not very good anymore I'll see you in three weeks to re quote you again. 

 

Sorry you feel the need.  

 

Maybe you just haven't been doing this very long, but everyone who participates on this board makes educated assessments that eventually don't pan out.  I make them too.

 

If you pm me, I'd be happy to direct you to a past thread or two where I missed.  No need to stalk me for weeks in this thread.

 

 

 

 

Edited by Rolling Thunder
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41 minutes ago, Chwf3rd said:

He should be the #2 add this week right after McKinnon and is worth over 25% FAAB.

 

It looks like he's going to get 15 carries per game and any RB getting that workload is a high priority WW pickup.

 

Yes he could be done and poop the bed but that's true with any RB WW pickup. Everyone thought Devontae Booker was going to blow up last year and it didn't work out. Nothing is guaranteed on the WW and you throw darts at guys who just had significant touches open up.  AP is likely going to get 15 touches a game and he was a top 5 overall fantasy pick just last year.

I rather have Mack than AP

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1 hour ago, Chwf3rd said:

He should be the #2 add this week right after McKinnon and is worth over 25% FAAB.

 

It looks like he's going to get 15 carries per game and any RB getting that workload is a high priority WW pickup.

 

Yes he could be done and poop the bed but that's true with any RB WW pickup. Everyone thought Devontae Booker was going to blow up last year and it didn't work out. Nothing is guaranteed on the WW and you throw darts at guys who just had significant touches open up.  AP is likely going to get 15 touches a game and he was a top 5 overall fantasy pick just last year.

 

Indeed.  AP hasn't looked like AP for two years, but he's been smoldering unused, and to my eye he's looked better than guys like Chris Johnson, Eddie Lacy and Marshawn Lynch when he's touched the ball lately.  And no team is more desperate for a RB it can feed than AZ.  If AP has anything at all left in the tank, he'll be able to produce with the volume he is sure to get.  How productive he can be will depend on whether his presence boosts the offense enough to generate regular GL opportunities.  We know AP will get all or most of those.

 

How deep your league is can play a big part in deciding how much FAAB he's worth.  In a deep league, chances are there won't be many other lotto tickets (mostly prime cuffs) languishing on the wire later in the season.  A big remaining FAAB won't be worth much.  Warts and all, the AP/AZ marriage may be as good as it gets.  In a more shallow league, you have a right to expect better opportunities to arise as the season wears on.

 

With all the pouting AP has been doing, it will be interesting to see if he aquits himself well at all now that he has gotten his wish.

 

Edited by Rolling Thunder
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Just dumped Crowell for him. I'm not expecting more than what Chris Johnson was doing but am hoping for vintage AP.  I've been scrambling to fill my RB2 spot all year, maybe this is finally it.  He can't be any worse than Crowell has been this year (I hope).

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10 minutes ago, TommyKramer said:

Just dumped Crowell for him. I'm not expecting more than what Chris Johnson was doing but am hoping for vintage AP.  I've been scrambling to fill my RB2 spot all year, maybe this is finally it.  He can't be any worse than Crowell has been this year (I hope).

 

Must feel good to get rid of him.  I have to actually start Crowell this week (Zeke and Shady on bye and my other backup RBs are Latavius Murray or Marlon Mack)....  :unsure::unsure::unsure:

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I used my #1 WW on him as I'm a bit desperate for a decent flex with Byes the next few weeks.  To me I think he was worth it as I don't see many "lottery ticket" guys ahead that could be MUCH better.  Only ones I could think of would be:

 

Josh Gordon (if he miraculously got reinstated whoever is lucky enough to have #1 WW that week would obviously grab him)

Alf Morris or McFadden (when/if Zeke actually has to serve his suspension, and IF either/both are available on WW)

Charc West

James Conner

Tolbert

 

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7 hours ago, Rolling Thunder said:

Sorry you feel the need.  

 

Maybe you just haven't been doing this very long, but everyone who participates on this board makes educated assessments that eventually don't pan out.  I make them too.

 

If you pm me, I'd be happy to direct you to a past thread or two where I missed.  No need to stalk me for weeks in this thread.

 

I find this amusing as well. It's not even like people talking about picking him up are jocking AP. He just got traded and may be Arizona's starter, which could lead to volume, which has value itself in a lot of leagues. I feel like the immaturity level here gets higher every year, or maybe I'm just getting older.

 

"Hey guys, thoughts on picking up XXXXXX(insert AP, McKinnon, etc). He may be the starter on team XXXX. Might be some value there and worth an add to see what happens"

"Hahaha he sucks. You're going to be so disappointed. I'll be back to gloat in a few weeks when your lotto ticket doesn't pan out. Hahaha"

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44 minutes ago, owenmills said:

 

I find this amusing as well. It's not even like people talking about picking him up are jocking AP. He just got traded and may be Arizona's starter, which could lead to volume, which has value itself in a lot of leagues. I feel like the immaturity level here gets higher every year, or maybe I'm just getting older.

 

"Hey guys, thoughts on picking up XXXXXX(insert AP, McKinnon, etc). He may be the starter on team XXXX. Might be some value there and worth an add to see what happens"

"Hahaha he sucks. You're going to be so disappointed. I'll be back to gloat in a few weeks when your lotto ticket doesn't pan out. Hahaha"

 

It's not just you.  It feels like there is a bit of hostility from some posters in here directed toward AP or anyone who thinks there is a greater than zero chance that he will some fantasy or real life relevance.  I'm a little taken aback reading such adamant posts talking about his assured, all but guaranteed upcoming lack of production that will lead to him falling flat on his face.  It's like some of you want people to eat crow for having the slightest smidge of excitement or anticipation to see how the situation pans out.  The thing is I can't think of any posts that are on the complete opposite end of the spectrum saying he is definitively going to be a stud (maybe one or two who feel he will surely be an RB2), but with some of the strong negative responses in here you'd think the thread is full of people saying with certainty that AP is on his way to being a top back again.  If he ends up a complete dud I'm not sure anyone in here could be quoted to be brought to utter shame for being dead wrong in their assertions.

 

I'm not saying good arguments aren't being made for why AP will amount to little to nothing (I'm reading many that I am in agreement with), but some of these posts seem to be unnecessarily scathing.

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not sure how many here are FootballGuys.com subscribers but Matt Waldman posted a really long and thorough analysis of Peterson and his chances of finding success in Arizona. 

 

He made a great case that Peterson is far from "done" physically and was just completely miscast in the system that New Orleans runs. He also lays out why Arizona is a much better fit, and how Peterson is the type of RB they have needed/wanted to since DJ went down. Basically he believes they want to commit to the run game with someone who can wear defenses down and eventually break a big play. 

 

I respect Waldman's work quite a bit, and thought it was interesting to hear a perspective that didn't match the echo chamber of Twitter/these forums. 

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6 hours ago, TommyKramer said:

Just dumped Crowell for him. I'm not expecting more than what Chris Johnson was doing but am hoping for vintage AP.  I've been scrambling to fill my RB2 spot all year, maybe this is finally it.  He can't be any worse than Crowell has been this year (I hope).

 

You have more cojones than me, as I believe it could be worse than Crow.

 

I would like to see AP succeed in AZ, but ehh. Reminds me of when we signed Emmitt.

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48 minutes ago, mjb03003 said:

not sure how many here are FootballGuys.com subscribers but Matt Waldman posted a really long and thorough analysis of Peterson and his chances of finding success in Arizona. 

 

He made a great case that Peterson is far from "done" physically and was just completely miscast in the system that New Orleans runs. He also lays out why Arizona is a much better fit, and how Peterson is the type of RB they have needed/wanted to since DJ went down. Basically he believes they want to commit to the run game with someone who can wear defenses down and eventually break a big play. 

 

I respect Waldman's work quite a bit, and thought it was interesting to hear a perspective that didn't match the echo chamber of Twitter/these forums. 

AP is good running downhill with a FB and having enough volume to wear a defense down. Is he going to have that in AZ? 

 

The few times I have seen AP get the ball the last two years, he still has enough burst to be productive. He isnt the AP that looked like he was shot out of a cannon, but he is still as talented as most RB's in the league. The problem is he never developed technically as a player and his athleticism is waning. 

 

He still has to come off the field a lot simply because he cannot do the things he needs to do to stay on it. No one is going to put up with that stuff when AP is averaging 3.9 YPC and is over 30. When AP was young and winning games, no one cared that he was a below average football player. Arizona isn't going to change their game script to force feed an old AP like they would a young AP.

Edited by AJJones
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36 minutes ago, Members_Only_76 said:

 

You have more cojones than me, as I believe it could be worse than Crow.

 

I would like to see AP succeed in AZ, but ehh. Reminds me of when we signed Emmitt.

Doesn't take much cojones to drop colossal bust Crowell.  If that's all Im going to get out of my RB2 spot than I'm doomed anyways. Might as well take a chance on someone else.  If AP doesn't work out then it's back to the drawing board.

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2 minutes ago, Dark Kn19ht said:

How effective can AP really be with a new team this week? Won't he need at least till next week to learn playbook, protections, offensive language, etc.?

He will be fine. He does not really do anything but run. He is a non factor in the passing game and he cant block a lick. The question is how much do they give him the ball.

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10 minutes ago, AJJones said:

He will be fine. He does not really do anything but run. He is a non factor in the passing game and he cant block a lick. The question is how much do they give him the ball.

My impression is that they're eager to feed him right away - they listed him as the starter and also released CJ very soon after signing him. The main barrier preventing me from throwing him in right away is the matchup - TB has been stingy against the run so far, I believe.

 

However, the passing game should have success moving the ball, and I think AD could be a decent bet for a short-yardage TD. I'll still likely sit him for Gore, but AD is still a nice guy to have on your bench just in case he actually does pan out.

Edited by Vendetta
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