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Adrian Peterson 2017 Season Outlook


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3 minutes ago, Fantasy Gooroo said:

Do you have answers or  are you looking to go back and forth?

Well, I have spent a ridiculous amount of time contrasting the needs of your specific team vs the needs of every other team in your specific league so that I can accurately assess who may be in full blown panic mode... 

 

I'd recommend targeting Matt's team, because he's in a tizzy over the likelihood of Zeke missing several games. 

Or Big Tom, who is looking to replace Hyde's lack of production. 

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13 minutes ago, meverett85 said:

Whole offense looked gangbusters in the 1st half....as a Carson Palmer owner I'm hoping AP can keep this going.

 

My league mate that has him is now adamant that DJ will not be the starter once he returns....LOL. I think AP owners are a little too high on life right now.

No, your leaguemate is too high on life right now. The rest of the fantasy community is just happy to have received excellent production from a guy who cost them nothing because dumb dumb know it alls were too cute for their own good. 

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3 minutes ago, miasma16 said:

 

 

 

I analyzed AP's fit in running schemes, Arizona's terrible offensive line, statistical usage of different sets between Arizona and New Orleans. There was a lot of logic behind what I posted, as I attempted to aid posters in this forum and actually contribute with an argument based on facts. It's something that cannot be said for a lot of the posters here.

 

For whatever reason, Peterson went off today. Maybe he never liked Sean Payton and likes Arians (the former, one of my least favorite coaches, and the latter my absolute favorite). Maybe Peterson was mad that he played terribly for New Orleans whenever they let him on the field and he felt like, for the thousandth time in his career, he had something to prove. Maybe it was a combination of a number of things.

 

As Rotoworld, for once, so aptly put it, this was a game that nobody saw coming. To everyone that debated and disagreed with me (especially @kmoore1521, who put up an actual coherent argument and was willing to take a flier on Peterson based purely on history), congratulations on owning a guy I'd like to have on my roster.

 

To the worthless posters like you, Asian Sensation, that haven't even posted in this thread in the past week and contribute literally nothing, and then come to gloat about an argument they weren't even involved in, kindly f--- off.

 

 

 

Baseball-Player-Tries-To-Hold-In-The-Lau

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29 minutes ago, RustyMiller said:

Did anybody actually start him today?

 

I don't think anybody expected this today.

The potential was there, but nobody expected this in his first game.

Started him with Doug Martin out of absolute necessity...DJ on IR, Rob Kelley inactive, Thomas Rawls and Alfred Morris as WW gambles both on bye.  No one can claim to have seen this coming.  As someone else said, 60-70 yards and a TD would have been a good day.  

 

But I'm among those who believe opportunity and a coach with the right philosophy for an RB is as important as anything, and AP has no shortage of either now.  So I picked him up in 2 of my 3 money leagues. The Saints offense is just goofy for RBs.  They produce some productive backs from time to time, but you can never feel that good about any of them because there's always a rotation and they almost never commit to one guy for a series.  Some RBs don't require a lot of carries to get into a rhythm, and some do.  AP has always gotten tons of carries and has been given a chance to get revved up throughout his career, and that just wasn't something he was going to get with the Saints.  His struggles there were foreseeable.  He also would not do well as a Patriots RB for that reason.  Arians is one of those increasingly rare coaches who will absolutely give an RB a chance to get going and will ride an RB who is performing, so it was not hard to imagine the move to AZ as a positive one for AP.  Like Andy Reid and Tomlin, Arians is a coach whose starting RB you want shares in.

 

Won't be surprised if he doesn't have another tripe-digit yardage game all year, and he's got the league's attention now.  But he looks like a good bet for sold RB2 numbers.  75-100 yards and a TD.  A great player most got from the WW.

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1 hour ago, miasma16 said:

As Rotoworld, for once, so aptly put it, this was a game that nobody saw coming.

 

I thought that was a pretty lame line by the Rotoworld writer.  I went out of my way to get AP wherever I could.  I traded for him in one league, and dropped my whole FAAB budget in another. 

 

You mentioned researching the statistical usage of different sets between Arizona and New Orleans, but did you realize that Arizona has the fewest running attempts out of shotgun in the NFL?

 

3fybtWh.png

 

That was one stat that tipped me off on Peterson.  Another factor was a few PFF stats:

 

1. Chris Johnson was the second-worst running back in the league in yards gained after initial contact.

 

2. Peterson, in three games with the Saints, had gained 81 yards. 72 of them have come after contact. He has also forced five missed tackles in 27 carries.  Those are all good numbers.

 

Also, I think Sean Peyton doesn't really get the best out of his running backs.  

 

Just figured I offered this up, since thinking "Nobody could have seen this coming" won't really help anyone in the future.

 

 

 

 

Edited by Iron-cock
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9 minutes ago, Iron-cock said:

 

I thought that was a pretty lame line by the Rotoworld writer.  I went out of my way to get AP wherever I could.  I traded for him in one league, and dropped my whole FAAB budget in another. 

 

You mentioned researching the statistical usage of different sets between Arizona and New Orleans, but did you realize that Arizona has the fewest running attempts out of shotgun in the NFL?

 

3fybtWh.png

 

That was one stat that tipped me off on Peterson.  Another factor was a few PFF stats:

 

1. Chris Johnson was the second-worst running back in the league in yards gained after initial contact.

 

2. Peterson, in three games with the Saints, had gained 81 yards. 72 of them have come after contact. He has also forced five missed tackles in 27 carries.  Those are all good numbers.

 

Also, I think Sean Peyton doesn't really get the best out of his running backs.  

 

Just figured I offered this up, since thinking "Nobody could have seen this coming" won't really help anyone in the future.

 

My point was that someone tooting their horn about a 25-point game that nobody predicted, in a thread they were never involved in, is ridiculous. 

 

But no, I didn't realize that. Again, this is an actual useful post with an argument supported by data. As I indicated in my long post about shotgun and other set usages, I was using numbers from 2016 and wasn't having the easiest time of finding the data.

Edited by miasma16
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All I want to say, is take notice of the clueless people who thought he was done and disregard their opinion on anything from this moment forward.

 

Hold people accountable for their opinions.

 

 

 

Edited by Mavis
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1 hour ago, Pooskay said:

he still looks like a 30+ year old RB.

 

flex at best. 

 

This was just a hype game.

 

Ooof, this is the equivalent of saying "disregard anything I say about football, I have no clue whats going on."

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14 minutes ago, Mavis said:

All I want to say, is take notice of the clueless people who thought he was done and disregard their opinion on anything from this moment forward.

 

Hold people accountable for their opinions.

 

 

 

 

Agreed. 

 

And I was one of those convinced he was done. He proved me and 99% of the FFL community wrong vs TB. 

 

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1 hour ago, Iron-cock said:

 

I thought that was a pretty lame line by the Rotoworld writer.  I went out of my way to get AP wherever I could.  I traded for him in one league, and dropped my whole FAAB budget in another. 

 

You mentioned researching the statistical usage of different sets between Arizona and New Orleans, but did you realize that Arizona has the fewest running attempts out of shotgun in the NFL?

 

3fybtWh.png

 

That was one stat that tipped me off on Peterson.  Another factor was a few PFF stats:

 

1. Chris Johnson was the second-worst running back in the league in yards gained after initial contact.

 

2. Peterson, in three games with the Saints, had gained 81 yards. 72 of them have come after contact. He has also forced five missed tackles in 27 carries.  Those are all good numbers.

 

Also, I think Sean Peyton doesn't really get the best out of his running backs.  

 

Just figured I offered this up, since thinking "Nobody could have seen this coming" won't really help anyone in the future.

 

 

FSM7yR.gif

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1 hour ago, miasma16 said:

 

My point was that someone tooting their horn about a 25-point game that nobody predicted, in a thread they were never involved in, is ridiculous. 

 

But no, I didn't realize that. Again, this is an actual useful post with an argument supported by data. As I indicated in my long post about shotgun and other set usages, I was using numbers from 2016 and wasn't having the easiest time of finding the data.

I noticed some of your posts and respect that you at least put forth legitimate, researched reasons as to why you thought he would flop. They turned out to be wrong and that’s ok. It’s posters like master or puppets whatever the handle is, have offered nothing in this thread but sarcastic and childish comments about AP being a foo’ and how he saw his down fall coming a mile away while failing to post any form of logical reason why not to pick him up. I bet you he is still reading this thread but won’t post until AP has a sub-par game.

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1 hour ago, Mavis said:

All I want to say, is take notice of the clueless people who thought he was done and disregard their opinion on anything from this moment forward.

 

Hold people accountable for their opinions.

 

 

 

And what do you propose if he struggles his next few games? 

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1 hour ago, joshua18 said:

 

Agreed. 

 

And I was one of those convinced he was done. He proved me and 99% of the FFL community wrong vs TB. 

 

 

Admittedly, we all see different things, but I didn't believe AP looked bad in the limited snaps he got in NO.  I didn't see a huge gap between him and Ingram when they were getting snaps in the same games.  CJ, OTOH, was awful.  

 

Don't forget, AP helps himself when he arms Palmer with a legit play action threat.   AZ's offense can be quite good when it has any semblance of balance.  AP gives them that.  CJ didn't.  AP will get scoring

chances regularly, which is why he could not have landed in a better place.

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This whole debate has predictably turned into a strange pride war.

 

Here were the facts going in:

 

1) ARI offensive line generated .77 yards before contact.

2) Peterson averaged 3 YPC on an albeit limited sample (27 carries).

3) AP was coming off a devastating injury, with a ton of RB miles, at a historically bad age...etc. etc.

 

Anybody who said he wasn't worth a waiver wire pick was being silly. But likewise, anybody who thought he would perform anywhere close to this is also playing MMQB.

 

In any case, certainly entertaining seeing a vintage AP game and even better for fantasy owners that have a stake in that offense.

 

After every game here on out there is going to be somebody who comes right to this thread to continue the internet battle.

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