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Adrian Peterson 2017 Season Outlook


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11 minutes ago, AJJones said:

I am not backtracking. I said AP needed volume to be a RB2 and once they cut CJ2K I said he would get it. I didn't think they would outright cut Chris Johnson, no. I figured AP would ultimately take over but DJ is coming back so that still would not make him a RB2.

 

I said AP needed x,y and z to happen for him to be successful, otherwise he wouldn't be. Those things ended up happening....

 

No need to derail this thread any further. I sent you a PM. 

 

Aside from the conversation about volume, you made it clear that you thought AP was washed up as a player and had no more left in the tank than Chris Johnson did. To be fair, your tune did change rather quickly once Chris Johnson was released, but that was still solely based on projected volume, not because he still has the goods. 

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Just now, mjb03003 said:

 

No need to derail this thread any further. I sent you a PM. 

 

Aside from the conversation about volume, you made it clear that you thought AP was washed up as a player and had no more left in the tank than Chris Johnson did. To be fair, your tune did change rather quickly once Chris Johnson was released, but that was still solely based on projected volume, not because he still has the goods. 

I will respond in PM. I already said you were right.

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A little self-congratulations and even some gloating is fine, but this thread has gone completely off the rails. Getting a judgment call wrong doesn't make someone a bad fantasy manager, and getting one right doesn't make anyone a genius.

 

These threads are specifically for sharing ideas and information relating to the fantasy potential and future issues for a specific player. The discussion needs to focus on that going forward, so any posts not related to Peterson's value as a fantasy football asset will be removed. If you feel compelled to describe your superior decision making skills, the CSB thread is thataway --------> http://forums.rotoworld.com/topic/662529-cool-story-bro-2017-edition/

 

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AP should retire now on  GREAT note. Otherwise he will join CJ2KY in going out as a has been by the end of the year. 

 

My prediction is he doesn't sniff 4.0 ypa the rest of the year. Better than C. Johnson still though as AP demands more attention which makes Carson's job easier

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2 minutes ago, howlin' 2 said:

AP should retire now on  GREAT note. Otherwise he will join CJ2KY in going out as a has been by the end of the year. 

 

My prediction is he doesn't sniff 4.0 ypa the rest of the year. Better than C. Johnson still though as AP demands more attention which makes Carson's job easier

And what would your reasoning for that be?

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1 minute ago, devaster said:

And what would your reasoning for that be?

Arizona's line isn't a power house run blocking line. This game was an aberration. DJ was consistently having to make tacklers miss in the backfield to get back to the line of scrimmage. Peterson wasn't good at that in Minnesota his last couple of years nor was he in New Orleans this year.

 

Like Demarco Murray if you can derail them from going downhill early and force them to stop & start or go sideways you can severely limit their success. DJ can get away from open tackler with far more elusive moves.

 

Biggest thing in AP's favor is the schedule. Arizona faces many games against underperforming run defenses in the Rams(2), Giants, Seattle(2), Jacksonville whom I think will be better than they have performed so far. SF is a poor run "D" so AP has a lot of game scripts that should lend a good chance to prove me wrong.

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12 minutes ago, howlin' 2 said:

My prediction is he doesn't sniff 4.0 ypa the rest of the year. 

 

Seems unlikely barring injury.  The schedule is very favorable:

 

YPC given up by defense in parenthesis, followed by NFL rank in YPC given up).

 

7    Oct 22    ARI @ LA (4.8) 29th        
8    Bye    
9    Nov 05    ARI @ SF (3.4) 5th         
10    Nov 09    SEA @ ARI (4.9) 30th              
11    Nov 19    ARI @ HOU (4.0) 8th              
12    Nov 26    JAX @ ARI (5.2) 32nd          
13    Dec 03    LA @ ARI (4.8) 29th             

14    Dec 10    TEN @ ARI (3.7) 9th             
15    Dec 17    ARI @ WAS (4.0) 16th             
16    Dec 24    NYG @ ARI (4.3) 23rd             
17    Dec 31    ARI @ SEA (4.9) 30th

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18 minutes ago, howlin' 2 said:

Arizona's line isn't a power house run blocking line. This game was an aberration. DJ was consistently having to make tacklers miss in the backfield to get back to the line of scrimmage. Peterson wasn't good at that in Minnesota his last couple of years nor was he in New Orleans this year.

 

I believe most of his yards in NO were after contact. So you would be wrong on that account. And they were running him out of shotgun with a terrible OLine in Minnesota.

 

Anything else to support your stance?

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2 minutes ago, Iron-cock said:

 

Seems unlikely barring injury.  The schedule is very favorable:

 

YPC given up by defense in parenthesis, followed by NFL rank in YPC given up).

 

7    Oct 22    ARI @ LA (4.8) 29th        
8    Bye    
9    Nov 05    ARI @ SF (3.4) 5th         
10    Nov 09    SEA @ ARI (4.9) 30th              
11    Nov 19    ARI @ HOU (4.0) 8th              
12    Nov 26    JAX @ ARI (5.2) 32nd          
13    Dec 03    LA @ ARI (4.8) 29th             

14    Dec 10    TEN @ ARI (3.7) 9th             
15    Dec 17    ARI @ WAS (4.0) 16th             
16    Dec 24    NYG @ ARI (4.3) 23rd             
17    Dec 31    ARI @ SEA (4.9) 30th

The problem with that is being able to open up the run with passing. Palmer did a great job yesterday with that. And having a lead, they were able to run run run. If they fall behind, itll be tough. Good D in Ari though. Good cover corners on a lot of those teams so that will allow them to fill up the box to stop run if need be. Only time will tell if AD can repeat yesterdays performance. I feel he has a pretty decent chance. Tampa is bad though, never know.

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2 minutes ago, RustyMiller said:

Anybody have a snap count?

It's pretty crazy he came there on Tuesday(?) and was so involved in the game.

I would've though he would've needed some time to get acclimated to the offense.

He played 48. 4 more than he played during his entire stint in NO.

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2 minutes ago, RustyMiller said:

Anybody have a snap count?

It's pretty crazy he came there on Tuesday(?) and was so involved in the game.

I would've though he would've needed some time to get acclimated to the offense.

Rotoworld posted earlier today that he played 48 snaps

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20 minutes ago, Zekepeak86 said:

The problem with that is being able to open up the run with passing. Palmer did a great job yesterday with that. And having a lead, they were able to run run run. If they fall behind, itll be tough. Good D in Ari though. Good cover corners on a lot of those teams so that will allow them to fill up the box to stop run if need be. Only time will tell if AD can repeat yesterdays performance. I feel he has a pretty decent chance. Tampa is bad though, never know.

 

Seattle, Jacksonville and the LA Rams are all run funnel defenses.  Palmer had one of the best deep ball passing seasons in the past 27 years in 2015.  In 2016 things changed a bit because it made more sense to dump passes off to DJ.   I think most teams are going to have to decide between trying to load up to stop AP, or stop Palmer from beating them deep...and they'll mostly lean towards stopping the deep ball.

 

That said, the Rams and Jacksonville may be a bit tough for the ARI passing game.  They're #1 and #2 in sacks respectively, and AP's pass protection skills have been called into question in the past.  

 

 

 

P3WsSNe.png

 

  

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About the O-Line, I never remember AP having a good O-Line. This is the guy who won MVP because he literally carried the Vikings to Playoffs. Plus that was with all defenses stacking the box and no outside threats. Add to that his first real play and proper volume usage was against a top flight run defense. Dear GOD what he will do to the rest of the weak run teams.

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53 minutes ago, devaster said:

I believe most of his yards in NO were after contact. So you would be wrong on that account. And they were running him out of shotgun with a terrible OLine in Minnesota.

 

Anything else to support your stance?

The yards after contact stats are getting mentioned repeatedly. The thing is, we didn't expect them to matter because the line was supposed to be bad. 

 

I didn't watch the game, but D.J. Humphries is Arizona's left tackle. He wasn't good in 2016. In Game 1, Arizona gave up 1 sack. He was injured in Game 1. Arizona's line then looked like one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. Then Humphries came back this week and reportedly looked good. 

 

So stop with the yards after contact thing. Arizona's line has been hurt all year, and people can be forgiven for thinking that even with Humphries and Boone returning, the line would still be just about as bad as the line in New Orleans. It's appearing that Humphries is going to at least approach his potential at LT, though, and that's huge for the Cards and for AP. 

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1 minute ago, miasma16 said:

The yards after contact stats are getting mentioned repeatedly. The thing is, we didn't expect them to matter because the line was supposed to be bad. 

 

I didn't watch the game, but D.J. Humphries is Arizona's left tackle. He wasn't good in 2016. In Game 1, Arizona gave up 1 sack. He was injured in Game 1. Arizona's line then looked like one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. Then Humphries came back this week and reportedly looked good. 

 

So stop with the yards after contact thing. Arizona's line has been hurt all year, and people can be forgiven for thinking that even with Humphries and Boone returning, the line would still be just about as bad as the line in New Orleans. It's appearing that Humphries is going to at least approach his potential at LT, though, and that's huge for the Cards and for AP. 

???? AD generates a lot of his own yardage. And was facing weaker boxes with the Ari passing threat. He just needs the snaps and touches. He is almost always good for one or two long runs in a game. He has a habit of breaking a long run.

 

He was underused in NO, but on the touches he got he was good while there.

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1 minute ago, devaster said:

???? AD generates a lot of his own yardage. And was facing weaker boxes with the Ari passing threat. He just needs the snaps and touches. He is almost always good for one or two long runs in a game. He has a habit of breaking a long run.

 

He was underused in NO, but on the touches he got he was good while there.

What Arizona passing threat? Drew Brees was his QB a couple weeks ago. 

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3 minutes ago, miasma16 said:

What Arizona passing threat? Drew Brees was his QB a couple weeks ago. 

Ari has a vertical passing threat. He wasn't getting the touches he needed in NO to go off. AD has always been a volume guy that generates his own yardage and wears down a defense. And then he breaks a long run.

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26 minutes ago, quaglinoman said:

About the O-Line, I never remember AP having a good O-Line. This is the guy who won MVP because he literally carried the Vikings to Playoffs. Plus that was with all defenses stacking the box and no outside threats. Add to that his first real play and proper volume usage was against a top flight run defense. Dear GOD what he will do to the rest of the weak run teams.

 

About 250 rushing yards and 3TDs.

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16 minutes ago, miasma16 said:

What Arizona passing threat? Drew Brees was his QB a couple weeks ago. 

Arizona has two 4.3 burners in John Brown and JJ Nelson that defenses can't ignore (Jaron runs a sub-4.5 himself); then you have sure-hands Fitz who's still shredding teams at 34. This is a pretty sweet offense now that they have a running threat.

Edited by Vendetta
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14 minutes ago, Iron-cock said:

Highlights from yesterday:

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o9kJHUiTjtY

 

Posted as a link, because the NFL for some reason won't let us embed videos on a website owned by a company that pays to broadcast their games. 

 

Thanks for the link.  Those of us who didn't see the game were curious.  Yes, it was TB, but he looks just fine.  

 

Don't underestimate the morale boost to this maligned OL.  They looked like they were getting after it more than in the previous several games.

 

 

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Just now, Rolling Thunder said:

 

Thanks for the link.  Those of us who didn't see the game were curious.  Yes, it was TB, but he looks just fine.  

 

Don't underestimate the morale boost to this maligned OL.  They looked like they were getting after it more than in the previous several games.

They had maybe their 2 most important starters back. 

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