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Jamaal Charles 2017 Season Outlook


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15 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

CJ the most versatile back on the team.  He's good pass blocker, can get tough yards through middle, great slide step on draw plays, good receiver,  and really smart adapting to audibles.  

 He's not coming off the field every third down.   JC is will be in specific packages and it would not surprise to see him in motion or split out close to the line with CJ or Books in the backfield on passing plays.   McCoy is a creative playcaller.  

 

This is all hypothetical seeing as how we don't know what level,  if any, of ability Charles has left but Charles when healthy does all of that as well but does it even better. :)

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5 hours ago, 96mnc said:

 

This is all hypothetical seeing as how we don't know what level,  if any, of ability Charles has left but Charles when healthy does all of that as well but does it even better. :)

Of course that's the million dollar question.  If he's 80-90% of Jamal Charles, he's one of the better backs in the league, and the only reason to use another back is to keep Charles fresh.  If he hasn't healed well, he's an average-ish (depending on how badly he hasn't healed) option with durability issues, and CJ gets more work. 

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  • 4 weeks later...

http://www.denverpost.com/2017/07/26/broncos-taking-it-slow-with-return-of-three-vets/

 

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RB reps

While most eyes will be on the quarterbacks, the Broncos have a number of other positional battles that will unfold during camp. Running back is one, with the return of C.J. Anderson from a knee injury, the growth of Devontae Booker and the arrivals of rookie De’Angelo Henderson and veteran Charles.

 

“At running back, obviously we’ve got C.J. and ‘Book’ taking most of the first- and second-team reps along with (Juwan) Thompson. Jamaal is going to bounce in between the first, second and third team,” Joseph said. “De’Angelo is also going to get some third-team reps.”

 

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On 6/29/2017 at 1:31 PM, pikerbkb said:

How can you say he's not back. Just watch how he dominates this bouncy yoga core thingy.

 

 

 

 

where JC quads always that skinny? He must of lost some muscle from all the operations

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4 hours ago, dave.zavala89 said:

 

 

where JC quads always that skinny? He must of lost some muscle from all the operations

lol yea it was kind of unfair to post that video since he was not too far into his rehab. His legs were always pretty skinny though. It's really a testament of how great of a running back he was. Not a true workhorse, but just off the charts production per touch. Very good pass blocker too. 

Edited by pikerbkb
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At his current price tag (9.01 per ffcalc.com), and given all the signs and reports like the following, Charles is a guy that needs to be on everyone's radar.  Do not write off or ignore one of the most talented RBs of the last 15 years.

 

 

Quote

 

MMQB's Peter King reports the Broncos want Jamaal Charles to see eight to 10 touches per game.

Those touches obviously depend on Charles being healthy, but he told King he has "zero knee pain" right now. Even so, the Broncos do not want to overload a 30-year-old back who has played eight games in the last two years. Charles has been hyper-efficient with his work throughout his career, but he will likely need more than 10 touches a game to be a real fantasy factor in standard leagues.

 

 

 

This is pretty much right in line with @Impreza178 's prediction: That if Charles makes the team, he's going to be purely a COP back where they limit his touches.  

 

But there's still value to be had in that.

 

Denver had 25.6 rush attempts per game last year, smack dab in the middle of the league at 16th overall.  Swag estimate based on this report:

- CJA gets 15 carries, 2 recs per game

- Booker gets 6 carries, <1 rec per game

- Charles gets 5 carries, 4 recs per game

 

8-10 touches per game, in his role amounts to  800-950 yards on the year.  Figure maybe 5-6 total TDs.  Throwing a dart in the middle, that'd be 125 standard points.  That would've been good for RB26 in standard leagues last year.  And that's if they stick to this plan.  Reasons plan might fail:

1) Charles gets hurt.  Gets less touches.

2) CJA or Booker get hurt.  Charles gets more touches.

 

The big 'If' in all of this conjecture is Charles' health.  I'm personally not concerned.  I followed the KC backfield extremely closely all last year, including pre-season.  There was one really good clip posted to this site, showing Charles talking to a reporter, wondering, worrying, "why isn't my knee where it's supposed to be right now?  I just need to trust in God."  Something to that effect.  Lots of little signs and hints that none of us wanted to believe.  But we should have known.  NOW?  Well, he's had a follow up surgery since then, and now he has zero pain and is saying he's back at 100%.  All the little hints and signs are pointing in a different direction this year.  Sure, there's a risk of reinjury, as he's prone to them.  He's old, but not in terms of total career carries.  He simply has less red flags than last year.  If the price tag is 9th+ round, I'd be more than happy to roll the dice.  Especially when you consider that despite the competition for targets, the Broncos still see the talent and plan to use it, albeit with caution and managed touches.

 

- Best case scenario for Charles owners: CJA and Booker get hurt at some point, Charles takes over starting role, gets 16+ touches a game, stud late round RB1.

- Lucky scenario: CJA or Booker get dinged up here or there, Charles proves to coaches he's still capable, they give him some more volume and at 13 touches a game he delivers weekly RB2 value.

- Likely scenario: he's a high end RB3 / adequate standard flex / above average PPR flex when he plays, figure 12+ games.

- Unlucky scenario: high end RB3, occasional RB2 weeks, gets hurt halfway through year, dump him eventually

- Worst case scenario, his knee explodes and I lose a 9th round pick.

 

Worst case scenario isn't that bad.  Most likely scenario is good flex value even in standard leagues.

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34 minutes ago, mikeflavaz said:

I'd like Charles alot if he was a last round flyer. Though where he's going right now, I'd be passing up on much better WR options. 

 

Like Eric Decker, Randall Cobb, Tyrell Williams?

 

Smokey's the one guy in the territory I'd probably grab before Charles, but TBD if he stays that cheap.

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He's not even a sure shot to make the team? I thought, he'd be good for a late round flier but 8 to 10 carries per game?. Not worth a spot. 

 

Source: MMQB - Peter King

Denver Broncos RB Jamaal Charles is expected to receive eight to 10 touches per game this season if he makes the team. Charles said he has zero knee pain for now.

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3 minutes ago, TX Babe Ruth said:

He's not even a sure shot to make the team? I thought, he'd be good for a late round flier but 8 to 10 carries per game?. Not worth a spot. 

 

Source: MMQB - Peter King

Denver Broncos RB Jamaal Charles is expected to receive eight to 10 touches per game this season if he makes the team. Charles said he has zero knee pain for now.

 

Tx-  how many touches does it take JC to house one if he's right?  

 

The issue is WHEN that happens.   Guessing the right week. But a couple injuries...which has already happened-  and it could be a different story

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it makes sense to limit him out of the gate. he hasn't played in a while. if he can handle 8-10 touches a game with no issues or pain i could see them upping that as the season moves along as both charles and the team get confidence in his health and ability. i wouldn't expect him to become the workhorse or anything but slowly increasing his role could make him useful as a flex play. he might be a hot waiver pickup a month or two into the season as people will lose patience quick with him i imagine

Edited by Packdog
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1 hour ago, TX Babe Ruth said:

He's not even a sure shot to make the team? I thought, he'd be good for a late round flier but 8 to 10 carries per game?. Not worth a spot. 

 

Source: MMQB - Peter King

Denver Broncos RB Jamaal Charles is expected to receive eight to 10 touches per game this season if he makes the team. Charles said he has zero knee pain for now.

 

None of his money is guaranteed, so he could be cut anytime before week 1. But he's definitely worth a dart throw IMO.

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2 hours ago, TX Babe Ruth said:

He's not even a sure shot to make the team? I thought, he'd be good for a late round flier but 8 to 10 carries per game?. Not worth a spot. 

 

Source: MMQB - Peter King

Denver Broncos RB Jamaal Charles is expected to receive eight to 10 touches per game this season if he makes the team. Charles said he has zero knee pain for now.

 

 

 

If Charles is getting 8-10 touches a game, he'll be a PPR steal. I don't know why people act like that's a bad thing. 8-10 touches is about right for a pass catching RB. You look at the number of touches for guys like Riddick, Sims, Sproles, Duke Johnson, etc, that's all the work they need. 

 

Here are Theo Riddick's total touches from 2015, when he finished as the 18th overall RB in PPR. 

 

2

6

8

6

10

10

6

11

6

11

7

6

10

4

14

6

 

 

In PPR, 5 catches for 60 yards and 5 carries for 20 yards per week is more than enough. 

Edited by ajs723
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1 hour ago, ajs723 said:

 

 

 

If Charles is getting 8-10 touches a game, he'll be a PPR steal. I don't know why people act like that's a bad thing. 8-10 touches is about right for a pass catching RB. You look at the number of touches for guys like Riddick, Sims, Sproles, Duke Johnson, etc, that's all the work they need. 

 

Here are Theo Riddick's total touches from 2015, when he finished as the 18th overall RB in PPR. 

 

2

6

8

6

10

10

6

11

6

11

7

6

10

4

14

6

 

 

In PPR, 5 catches for 60 yards and 5 carries for 20 yards per week is more than enough. 

When you combine the player(Charles) with the amount of touches, is what's alarming. Charles was a workhorse and now, he's not even a sure shot to make the team; and if he does, he's limited...(that's not a good thing).

 

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2 hours ago, Ffguy0087 said:

^ What RB catching 5 passes a week averages 12 yards per grab?

You're right, if needlessly nitpicky. 

 

Say, 5 receptions for 40 yards and 5 carries for 20 yards per. That's 11 points per game without a single TD. That's still RB2 status. 

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1 hour ago, ajs723 said:

You're right, if needlessly nitpicky. 

 

Say, 5 receptions for 40 yards and 5 carries for 20 yards per. That's 11 points per game without a single TD. That's still RB2 status. 

The fly in the ointment is still going to be consistency.   Every single back on that team is a good receiver out of the backfield.   I have a feeling it's gonna be more like 80 yards and a TD every fourth game,  sandwiched by a dud and a couple 4 catches for 30 and 2 carries for 7 type games.    It's really just a dart throw that needs an injury or two to change.   The back to own is without a doubt CJA.   

Edited by Impreza178
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With someone like Charles, you fall in love quick and then it takes years to realize you're not in love anymore.  But I'm having a hard time looking past memories of Charles killing it in his prime and seeing that we are talking about a 30 year old RB who has had less than 83 carries and played in only 8 games since 2014, playing on a team without an established deep passing game to open up the box some.  

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But was it anemic because of a lack of RB talent or because teams stacked the box and made the QB rather than the run game beat them?   I was unfortunate enough to own CJA last season in one league, so I watched some of their games.  I definitely thought Booker had more burst than Anderson, but I didn't see huge holes for either of them.

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Just now, FeastMode said:

But was it anemic because of a lack of RB talent or because teams stacked the box and made the QB rather than the run game beat them?   I was unfortunate enough to own CJA last season in one league, so I watched some of their games.  I definitely thought Booker had more burst than Anderson, but I didn't see huge holes for either of them.

 

O-line got hurt, Booker wore down and wasn't able to handle the full workload. 

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55 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

The fly in the ointment is still going to be consistency.   Every single back on that team is a good receiver out of the backfield.   I have a feeling it's gonna be more like 80 yards and a TD every fourth game,  sandwiched by a dud and a couple 4 catches for 30 and 2 carries for 7 type games.    It's really just a dart throw that needs an injury or two to change.   The back to own is without a doubt CJA.   

Probably true. However, that's also pretty much true of every RB2. For example, Crowell had 6 games of 8 points or less last season. Terrance West had 10 single digit games. 


Outside of the top elite RBs, nobody is going to give you consistent double digit production. 

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