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Jamaal Charles 2017 Season Outlook


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8 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

Probably true. However, that's also pretty much true of every RB2. For example, Crowell had 6 games of 8 points or less last season. Terrance West had 10 single digit games. 


Outside of the top elite RBs, nobody is going to give you consistent double digit production. 

 

With Booker out and CJ finally at a reasonable ADP for once over the past two years, I am finally intrigued by drafting him. Booker's injury definitely hurts his prospects of becoming something and I was definitely more into Booker before the injury. But 15 carries a game, 2-3 receptions and goal line carries seems very likely of occurring in week 1. Maybe I'll draft Booker too not as a cuff, but as a guy who may be utilized like he was last season. Jamaal hurts Booker more than he hurts CJ so no matter how well Jamaal does or doesn't do I expect CJ's production to remain stable. Not from a week to week perspective but stable as in it won't change whether Jamaal is great or a bust. 14-16 carries and 2-3 receptions seems like the most likely scenario. 

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No surprise that Charles won't start the pre-season game but I'd at least like to see him in pre-season. 

 

Source: The Denver Post - Nicki Jhabvala

Denver Broncos RB C.J. Anderson will play no more than three series, while RB Jamaal Charleswill not play at all in the team's preseason opener against the Chicago Bears on Thursday, Aug. 10.

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3 minutes ago, Rdip444 said:

I am really curious how he will do. I kind of want to draft him late and see if he makes it off my bench.

He's worth a late round flier. If he's 90% of what he used to be, you hit the jack pot and look like a genius. :P

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9 minutes ago, tecmoboot said:

How is it possible that there are literally no media outlets (that I could find), that have any perspective or info on JC and how good/bad he's looked in camp?!?

 

 

I'm guessing he just hasn't done enough to show one way or the other. 

 

I love JC, but it's looking less and less likely that he's ever going to be close to himself again. This is feeling similar to last season already. I hope I'm proven wrong though. 

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15 hours ago, tecmoboot said:

How is it possible that there are literally no media outlets (that I could find), that have any perspective or info on JC and how good/bad he's looked in camp?!?

 

 

JC has yet to even CUT at full blast.    The plan is for him to play for the first time in preseason game 3 vs GB.     

 

Its far from a lock he makes the team.   Ridley and Henderson have both been superb- making him moot if he's at all limited.  

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He was literally my last pick in a 14 team auction ($1) so DND doesn't make a ton of sense to me unless someone in your league is actually reaching for him for some reason. I think he is one of the best players out there to hold until the pre-season is over and then drop if nothing good comes out of it. The only other players I speculatively hold at this time are backup RBs in case someone gets hurt. I'm not optimistic, but worst case I drop him for my week 1 kicker.

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3 minutes ago, kball09 said:

He was literally my last pick in a 14 team auction ($1) so DND doesn't make a ton of sense to me unless someone in your league is actually reaching for him for some reason. I think he is one of the best players out there to hold until the pre-season is over and then drop if nothing good comes out of it. The only other players I speculatively hold at this time are backup RBs in case someone gets hurt. I'm not optimistic, but worst case I drop him for my week 1 kicker.

 

Other lotto tickets I'd rather use that roster spot on. With Henderson and Ridley looking good this preseason, I doubt Charles even makes the Broncos roster. Also Denver gave him zero guaranteed money. For a reason.

 

 

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38 minutes ago, burninglegs said:

I doubt Charles even makes the Broncos roster. Also Denver gave him zero guaranteed money. For a reason.

 

 

Sure, because he has f'ed up knees most likely. It's not because they don't have faith he can produce if healthy. And all those other lottery picks are on my waiver wire waiting to be picked up once Charles proves he isn't worth a spot in two weeks, but none of those players have the ceiling of a healthy Jamaal Charles (I understand he likely isn't going to be the same guy, my optimism isn't extremely high here :))

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18 minutes ago, kball09 said:

 

Sure, because he has f'ed up knees most likely. It's not because they don't have faith he can produce if healthy. And all those other lottery picks are on my waiver wire waiting to be picked up once Charles proves he isn't worth a spot in two weeks, but none of those players have the ceiling of a healthy Jamaal Charles (I understand he likely isn't going to be the same guy, my optimism isn't extremely high here :))

 

That's why he is a DND for me. If he was healthy and GTG for this season, we would have already seen him in action and there wouldn't be any question about whether he would be making the team. Being on the wrong side of 30. Having his injury history. Just not sure I see much going on here that makes me want him. 

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If he was healthy he would cost something in a draft :) I don't disagree with any of your points, but if he looks really good in the third and fourth game of pre-season, you have a dynamic player that can have a lot of value on limited touches. If I had to take Jamaal in the 11th round, I wouldn't touch him with a ten foot pole. If I had a crystal ball in front of me, I would predict that Jamaal will be replaced on my roster by a high upside handcuff within the month, but I hope I'm wrong.

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1 minute ago, kball09 said:

If he was healthy he would cost something in a draft :) I don't disagree with any of your points, but if he looks really good in the third and fourth game of pre-season, you have a dynamic player that can have a lot of value on limited touches. If I had to take Jamaal in the 11th round, I wouldn't touch him with a ten foot pole. If I had a crystal ball in front of me, I would predict that Jamaal will be replaced on my roster by a high upside handcuff within the month, but I hope I'm wrong.

 

The fact that you got him for $1 in your league is a great buy in. For 12 team PPR snake draft leagues, he is going in the 10th round. Just too expensive for me with all the unknowns. 

 

But yeah, if you can get him with the last pick of your draft or for $1 in an auction league, that is a solid selection considering. 

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15 minutes ago, burninglegs said:

 

That's why he is a DND for me. If he was healthy and GTG for this season, we would have already seen him in action and there wouldn't be any question about whether he would be making the team. Being on the wrong side of 30. Having his injury history. Just not sure I see much going on here that makes me want him. 

 

Dangerous assumption. One many made about Gronk in August back in 2014...

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6 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

Dangerous assumption. One many made about Gronk in August back in 2014...

 

Equally dangerous assumption to believe that a RB turning 31 this season with extensive injury history will be able to get back into form and produce at a level he hasn't done since 2014.

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20 minutes ago, burninglegs said:

For 12 team PPR snake draft leagues, he is going in the 10th round. Just too expensive for me with all the unknowns. 

 

 

Wow, reallllly? Well then yeah, no f'ing way I take him that early in a snake. That reeks of noob leagues raising his average though, IMO.

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7 minutes ago, burninglegs said:

 

Equally dangerous assumption to believe that a RB turning 31 this season with extensive injury history will be able to get back into form and produce at a level he hasn't done since 2014.

 

At the cost of a double-digit round pick, there isn't much downside. 

 

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1 hour ago, kball09 said:

Wow, reallllly? Well then yeah, no f'ing way I take him that early in a snake. That reeks of noob leagues raising his average though, IMO.

I guess I'm a noob.  I'm gladly buying in the 10th/11th round.

Alternate RB options in these rounds: James White, Samaje Perine, J.Stew, Jamaal Williams, Darren Sproles, L.Murray, Joe Williams, Giovani Bernard.

 

I'm taking Forte first every time and I have no issues with Jamaal Williams ahead of Charles given his competition and offense.  But the rest of these guys... I feel like I know exactly what they are, or can be.  None of them have the upside of J.Charles, and in the 10th/11th round, I don't even care about floors.  These are all or nothing rounds.  Give me the guy everyone was buying in the 3rd round last year, who only added 12 carries to his resume in 2016, and is only a single season removed from averaging 21 points per game. Only Bell, DJ, and Zeke averaged more than 21PPG last year.

 

Yes, the injury risk is real.

Yes, the cliff risk is real.

Yes, he'll likely be off my team before October.

If these things weren't the most likely outcome expected by the FF community, he'd still be a 3rd round pick like last year.

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20 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

I guess I'm a noob.  I'm gladly buying in the 10th/11th round.

Alternate RB options in these rounds: James White, Samaje Perine, J.Stew, Jamaal Williams, Darren Sproles, L.Murray, Joe Williams, Giovani Bernard.

 

I take White, Sproles, Stewart over Charles without even blinking. 

 

I take Jamaal there and Joe Williams there while blinking a little (I like upside). 

 

The rest, yeah, I get taking Charles and crossing your fingers. I'm on the bandwagon too, but as someone that owned him last year I'd just recommend you're prepared to jump early. He can become a season long tease very quickly.

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20 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

I guess I'm a noob.  I'm gladly buying in the 10th/11th round.

Alternate RB options in these rounds: James White, Samaje Perine, J.Stew, Jamaal Williams, Darren Sproles, L.Murray, Joe Williams, Giovani Bernard.

 

I take White, Sproles, Stewart over Charles without even blinking. 

 

I take Jamaal there and Joe Williams there while blinking a little (I like upside). 

 

The rest, yeah, I get taking Charles and crossing your fingers. I'm on the bandwagon too, but as someone that owned him last year I'd just recommend you're prepared to jump early. He can become a season long tease very quickly.

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People are still holding on to his previous glory?  I said it last year in pre-season that he needed another procedure and was not healthy.   Charles is done being a feature back.  He doesn't have it anymore and even if he could get back to 75% of form, the team wouldn't trust him with any kind of volume.  Let it go. 

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