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Jamaal Charles 2017 Season Outlook


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3 hours ago, scheibler said:

Time to move him WAYYYYYY up your draft board fellas. I was tellimg everyone and their brother not to touch him last year. He looks great there...better then any of the turds in Denver

 

He said he was ready.

He was WAYYYYY better than any other RB on that team yesterday.

 

When the career NFL record holder of 5.5 YPC says he feels like his old self and just needs a chance to show it, then you have the guy you need to fill in for Doug Martin's 3 game suspension.

 

Too bad KC let him go.  They have 2 backs, err 1 back, who also can't handle feature back volume.  Maybe KC will pick up whoever Denver cuts, or KC tries to use Spiller?

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5 hours ago, grimsfield said:

 

I agree he shouldn't be as low as he is ..round 10ish with the likes of Forte maybe ...but he looks like a pale shade of what he used to be, even in those highlights, the cuts were cringe.. is this more hype because of how bad the rest of the DEN RBs are? 

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6 minutes ago, JSA2422 said:

 

I agree he shouldn't be as low as he is ..round 10ish with the likes of Forte maybe ...but he looks like a pale shade of what he used to be, even in those highlights, the cuts were cringe.. is this more hype because of how bad the rest of the DEN RBs are? 

 

 

CJA is the rb to own on this offense but plenty of touches and targets for charles. I like him as the cuff and bye week filler a but no confidence as him being my weekly starter as a rb2 or flex, Denver offense just isnt that dynamic to warrant it but he is def worth a bench spot as a zero rb strategy when ur looking at the art of the draft where the cuffs and situational dependent potential starters are drafted

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5 minutes ago, urban2014 said:

How stupid does KC look right now 

i mean, you can't really predict injuries and he was likely due a lot more money than denver is paying him. hopefully jamaal can show up in those two games against his former team then his entire contract will have been worth it

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Bump.  Nothing changed.  Buy.

 

On 7/31/2017 at 9:19 AM, Lord_Varys said:

At his current price tag (9.01 per ffcalc.com), and given all the signs and reports like the following, Charles is a guy that needs to be on everyone's radar.  Do not write off or ignore one of the most talented RBs of the last 15 years.

 

Quote

MMQB's Peter King reports the Broncos want Jamaal Charles to see eight to 10 touches per game.

Those touches obviously depend on Charles being healthy, but he told King he has "zero knee pain" right now. Even so, the Broncos do not want to overload a 30-year-old back who has played eight games in the last two years. Charles has been hyper-efficient with his work throughout his career, but he will likely need more than 10 touches a game to be a real fantasy factor in standard leagues.

 

This is pretty much right in line with @Impreza178 's prediction: That if Charles makes the team, he's going to be purely a COP back where they limit his touches.  

 

But there's still value to be had in that.

 

Denver had 25.6 rush attempts per game last year, smack dab in the middle of the league at 16th overall.  Swag estimate based on this report:

- CJA gets 15 carries, 2 recs per game

- Booker gets 6 carries, <1 rec per game

- Charles gets 5 carries, 4 recs per game

 

8-10 touches per game, in his role amounts to  800-950 yards on the year.  Figure maybe 5-6 total TDs.  Throwing a dart in the middle, that'd be 125 standard points.  That would've been good for RB26 in standard leagues last year.  And that's if they stick to this plan.  Reasons plan might fail:

1) Charles gets hurt.  Gets less touches.

2) CJA or Booker get hurt.  Charles gets more touches.

 

The big 'If' in all of this conjecture is Charles' health.  I'm personally not concerned.  I followed the KC backfield extremely closely all last year, including pre-season.  There was one really good clip posted to this site, showing Charles talking to a reporter, wondering, worrying, "why isn't my knee where it's supposed to be right now?  I just need to trust in God."  Something to that effect.  Lots of little signs and hints that none of us wanted to believe.  But we should have known.  NOW?  Well, he's had a follow up surgery since then, and now he has zero pain and is saying he's back at 100%.  All the little hints and signs are pointing in a different direction this year.  Sure, there's a risk of reinjury, as he's prone to them.  He's old, but not in terms of total career carries.  He simply has less red flags than last year.  If the price tag is 9th+ round, I'd be more than happy to roll the dice.  Especially when you consider that despite the competition for targets, the Broncos still see the talent and plan to use it, albeit with caution and managed touches.

 

- Best case scenario for Charles owners: CJA and Booker get hurt at some point, Charles takes over starting role, gets 16+ touches a game, stud late round RB1.

- Lucky scenario: CJA or Booker get dinged up here or there, Charles proves to coaches he's still capable, they give him some more volume and at 13 touches a game he delivers weekly RB2 value.

- Likely scenario: he's a high end RB3 / adequate standard flex / above average PPR flex when he plays, figure 12+ games.

- Unlucky scenario: high end RB3, occasional RB2 weeks, gets hurt halfway through year, dump him eventually

- Worst case scenario, his knee explodes and I lose a 9th round pick.

 

Worst case scenario isn't that bad.  Most likely scenario is good flex value even in standard leagues.

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1 hour ago, dashoe said:

 

 

CJA is the rb to own on this offense but plenty of touches and targets for charles. I like him as the cuff and bye week filler a but no confidence as him being my weekly starter as a rb2 or flex, Denver offense just isnt that dynamic to warrant it but he is def worth a bench spot as a zero rb strategy when ur looking at the art of the draft where the cuffs and situational dependent potential starters are drafted

 

Zero RB strategy is dumb.

 

I take 4 RBs in the first 6 rounds, and I'll probably be taking Stewart and JC in the 8th and 9th rounds as well.  Unless I reach for Corey Coleman in the 9th round because he can finish as a top 10 WR.  Then I would likely go with JC in the 8th as a filler for Doug Martin's 3 week suspension because the rest of the Broncos RBs are that bad.  It has been a while since JC has seen some real game action.  He is either a little rusty or his brain is telling him "be afraid of getting hurt".  Which isn't a bad thing.  He is the all time leader in YPC.  Hell, 4.5 YPC instead of 5.5 this year is more than okay for me.  15 touches (carries + catches) * 5 yards = 75 yards a game.  That might be his floor as a "1b".

 

Only justification for a zero RB draft is if your league starts 3 WRs and 2 RBs.  Remember, each NFL teams start 1 QB, 1 RB, and 3 WR.  Going heavy WR and neglecting the RBs is dumb.  RBs get hurt, and they bust, frequently!!!!   A Leveon Bell or DJ are not being replaced by somebody who will put up RB1 numbers. Handcuffing them is a waste of space.  They get replaced with RB3s.  If you don't have a couple RB2s backing up your studs who get injured, your season is over.   I've learned how to loose multiple running backs and still finish 1st or second in the regular season every year.  

 

Everyone else is trying to draft the "perfect team" in the first 6 rounds, which is always one injury from missing the playoffs.

 

Ef that.  I grab all the running backs you skip and pick up all the sleeper receivers in the middle of the draft and free agency.  Everyone else wasted draft capital on bust receivers.  I always get the FA WRs who are top 15 after week 6 because everyone else is waiting for their guys to start putting up some numbers.  

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He looked awesome. Only question is what kind of workload he can handle.

 

I wouldnt keep jamaal charles off the field after looking like that unless he was tired or risk of reinjury. 

 

He looked good enough to command 10 touches a game and if he starts ripping long runs like the old jamaal then he immediately becomes the most valuable rb for his ado on the broncos roster.

 

Well worth the risk to find out. In my opinion.

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I drafted JC in the 11th rd yesterday in a 1/2 PPR league. I'm not very optimistic on his chances of making a sizable impact, but I guess I'm hoping that CJA will struggle or go down with injury at some point, allowing JC to earn more touches going forward. At this point, however, if all RBs stay healthy, I can't see JC even warranting Flex play at any point other than bye weeks. I just don't see 8-10 touches a game being enough...that's probably averaging 50-60 yards or so. I'm hoping for more, but I don't see the consistency being there to make him anything more than a fill-in or a possible lottery ticket. 

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42 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

I drafted JC in the 11th rd yesterday in a 1/2 PPR league. I'm not very optimistic on his chances of making a sizable impact, but I guess I'm hoping that CJA will struggle or go down with injury at some point, allowing JC to earn more touches going forward. At this point, however, if all RBs stay healthy, I can't see JC even warranting Flex play at any point other than bye weeks. I just don't see 8-10 touches a game being enough...that's probably averaging 50-60 yards or so. I'm hoping for more, but I don't see the consistency being there to make him anything more than a fill-in or a possible lottery ticket. 

 

I guess we saw different highlights cause Jamaal looked damn good. Good enough that i also drafted him last night. 

 

If he continues to run and catch like that he will force CJA into a 50/50 time share.

 

15 all purpose touches a game for Jamaal Charles would put him squarely on the RB2 radar.

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2 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

I guess we saw different highlights cause Jamaal looked damn good. Good enough that i also drafted him last night. 

 

If he continues to run and catch like that he will force CJA into a 50/50 time share.

 

15 all purpose touches a game for Jamaal Charles would put him squarely on the RB2 radar.

 

This... if JC really is healthy and he gets 15 touches a game...this could be the steal of the year.

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I see no reason whatsoever not to take this guy in the 9th/10th. If he busts you lost a 9th round pick, no big deal. If he shows even a fraction of his old self then you're going to be pretty happy plugging him in as a flex. 

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2 minutes ago, Edgeraid said:

I see no reason whatsoever not to take this guy in the 9th/10th. If he busts you lost a 9th round pick, no big deal. If he shows even a fraction of his old self then you're going to be pretty happy plugging him in as a flex. 

Why would you reach for a guy somewhere that he's not even being considered? That's bad drafting. I feel like the earliest he'd go in a 12-teamer is the 11th round.

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38 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

I guess we saw different highlights cause Jamaal looked damn good. Good enough that i also drafted him last night. 

 

If he continues to run and catch like that he will force CJA into a 50/50 time share.

 

15 all purpose touches a game for Jamaal Charles would put him squarely on the RB2 radar.

 

I never said JC didn't look good. I just said that I'm skeptical that he gets the necessary touches to make him a flex play. There's CJA, and Booker is going to get some touches, as well. I would LOVE to be wrong...and I drafted him in case he stays healthy and I am wrong. My draft went poorly enough that I pretty much need to be wrong. Lol. I'm just skeptical that he gets enough workload to consistently (and that's the key word for me) get 15 or more touches. 

 

Maybe I'm just being overly cautious to keep my hopes from getting up, lol. 

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