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DeAndre Hopkins 2017 Season Outlook


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The guy has stud talent but is severely limited due to the poor QB play... 

 

Brock Osweilers ineptitude made owning Hopkins a nightmare last year. Surely his play has to get better this season which should only help out Hopkins?

 

What round do you think Hopkins will be selected in most upcoming drafts? Mid 2nd or even 3rd? 

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I would like to see Romo go to Houston, as well.

The challenge, of course, will be getting the Houston front office to admit the Osweiler mistake.

It's remarkable what a GM/owner's ego will make a team (and their fan base) live with so they do not have to appear flawed in their evaluation that led to a giant contract.

You'd most likely need to pay Romo at least what Osweiler's is making annually and that is a large commitment to the QB spot (big money to a scrub and a seemnigly injury prone gunslinger).

I am admittedly not aware of Houston's cap situation, but I assume that is too much of a cap impact to be possible. 

Edited by Winky
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I agree I think it would be hard to swallow the Oz contract and bring in Romo.  However, I've read on other forums that the Oz contract isn't too bad the way it's structured.  Apparently they can get rid of him after this year and it only count for like $6mm against them in 2018.

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4 hours ago, Fort4242 said:

I agree with mid 2nd and maybe 3rd.  If Oz is the QB again, I am not spending any top 3 pick on Hopkins.  I pray that Romo goes to the Texans.  Hopkins and Miller get boosts to their stock.  Romo and Hopkins would be nasty together.  

The only thing that will be nasty is drafting Hopkins in the 2nd or 3rd round and then Romo goes down early in the season, and your left holding the bag.

 

 

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4 hours ago, Fort4242 said:

I agree I think it would be hard to swallow the Oz contract and bring in Romo.  However, I've read on other forums that the Oz contract isn't too bad the way it's structured.  Apparently they can get rid of him after this year and it only count for like $6mm against them in 2018.

 

That's correct.

 

They can't cut him this year but after the 2017 season they can.

 

The issue with Romo and Brock would be getting Romo to take less than Brock in base salary to make the cap work.

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On 3/2/2017 at 3:11 PM, theSPANKER said:

The only thing that will be nasty is drafting Hopkins in the 2nd or 3rd round and then Romo goes down early in the season, and your left holding the bag.

 

 

 

This is exactly why I don't get all the Romo hype no matter where he ends up. There's really no reason to believe Romo will come out of training camp healthy. Kaepernick would be an upgrade from Osweiler. But that means tying up a lot of money at the QB position. Glennon would also be an upgrade. But it just appears very unlikely the Texans will admit this kind of mistake. That said, I can't touch Hopkins until the 4th even though I think he's a top 1-3 talent at WR.

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On 3/2/2017 at 5:12 PM, 96mnc said:

 

That's correct.

 

They can't cut him this year but after the 2017 season they can.

 

The issue with Romo and Brock would be getting Romo to take less than Brock in base salary to make the cap work.

I suppose it depends on how tricky you can get finagling the cap and how much money Romo wants. If he wants a SuperBowl and is willing to take 10 million a year, I think you could finagle things around if Brock can be cut with minimal cap inpact in 2017.  Say Romo is fine with 10 million just so he can play for a competitor.  With a 9 million signing bonus and 1 million in salary (to get over the veteran minimum), his cap impact as I understand it would be 5.5 million this year. If you can weather 14.5 million the next year (prorated signing bonus of 4.5 million, + 10 million in Salary) + Brock's leftovers, that's workable.  

 

Since Romo didn't really play this past year, I think they can also abuse the holy hell out of incentives, but Romo may not agree to basically not being paid if he gets hurt.

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1 hour ago, jbshaw said:

I suppose it depends on how tricky you can get finagling the cap and how much money Romo wants. If he wants a SuperBowl and is willing to take 10 million a year, I think you could finagle things around if Brock can be cut with minimal cap inpact in 2017.  Say Romo is fine with 10 million just so he can play for a competitor.  With a 9 million signing bonus and 1 million in salary (to get over the veteran minimum), his cap impact as I understand it would be 5.5 million this year. If you can weather 14.5 million the next year (prorated signing bonus of 4.5 million, + 10 million in Salary) + Brock's leftovers, that's workable.  

 

Since Romo didn't really play this past year, I think they can also abuse the holy hell out of incentives, but Romo may not agree to basically not being paid if he gets hurt.

 

Brock's 2017 base salary of 19m is fully guaranteed for 2017.

 

Cut him prior to June 1st and you take a 25m 2017 cap hit.  Cut him after June 1st and you still take a 19m 2017 cap hit.

 

You can cut him after the 2017 season and it's only a 6m cap hit in 2018, 3m if you designate him a post June 1, 2018 cut.

 

 

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On 3/2/2017 at 1:08 PM, elite said:

"The guy has stud talent but is severely limited due to the poor QB play... Brock Osweilers ineptitude made owning Hopkins a nightmare last year. Surely his play has to get better this season which should only help out Hopkins? What round do you think Hopkins will be selected in most upcoming drafts? Mid 2nd or even 3rd?" 

 

We see it every year, free agency overreach. Osweiler was a major project when he came out and he didn't perform like a QB that had matured all much from the time he was drafted. I seriously question how committed the Broncos were to developing this guy. Sure, they're doing everything they can with the guys they have now. Yeah, because Manning is gone, but I don't think they gave a rat's @$$ about this guy. Yards after the catch, per reception, Houston was rock bottom! I looked at a lot of Osweiler's throws from 3 games and almost everything was contested. When someone was open, his placement did the receiver no favors.    

 

Osweiler moves well for a guy that's 6' 7". Excellent arm strength, sets up nice when his follow-through isn't impeded. But that sidewinder release, it's not so much of long windup, but more so that his release point isn't in tight, it's way out there. No touch on intermediate throws. While he doesn't appear to have progressed much, I don't know that O'Brien's scheme focused on taking what the defense gives you. Maybe, but I don't think it ends well for the coach or the QB.    

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3 hours ago, markrc99 said:

 

We see it every year, free agency overreach. Osweiler was a major project when he came out and he didn't perform like a QB that had matured all much from the time he was drafted. I seriously question how committed the Broncos were to developing this guy. Sure, they're doing everything they can with the guys they have now. Yeah, because Manning is gone, but I don't think they gave a rat's @$$ about this guy. Yards after the catch, per reception, Houston was rock bottom! I looked at a lot of Osweiler's throws from 3 games and almost everything was contested. When someone was open, his placement did the receiver no favors.    

 

Osweiler moves well for a guy that's 6' 7". Excellent arm strength, sets up nice when his follow-through isn't impeded. But that sidewinder release, it's not so much of long windup, but more so that his release point isn't in tight, it's way out there. No touch on intermediate throws. While he doesn't appear to have progressed much, I don't know that O'Brien's scheme focused on taking what the defense gives you. Maybe, but I don't think it ends well for the coach or the QB.    

 

Problem is if there's any action around his feet or he has to moveal and reset he's going to be inaccurate.  Needs a nearly perfect pocket.

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10 hours ago, 96mnc said:

 

Brock's 2017 base salary of 19m is fully guaranteed for 2017.

 

Cut him prior to June 1st and you take a 25m 2017 cap hit.  Cut him after June 1st and you still take a 19m 2017 cap hit.

 

You can cut him after the 2017 season and it's only a 6m cap hit in 2018, 3m if you designate him a post June 1, 2018 cut.

 

 

Thanks.  So if you get get Romo to agree to 10 million in cash per year for 2 years, it's manageable (a little tough this next year) at 24.5 million in 2017 and 20.5 million in 2018.  It's not Dak level cap hits by any stretch, but it's not an unreasonable cap hit for a QB. 

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2 hours ago, jbshaw said:

Thanks.  So if you get get Romo to agree to 10 million in cash per year for 2 years, it's manageable (a little tough this next year) at 24.5 million in 2017 and 20.5 million in 2018.  It's not Dak level cap hits by any stretch, but it's not an unreasonable cap hit for a QB. 

 

10m in cash PER year for Romo gives Houston a 29m cap hit in 2017.  5m per year would be 24.5m in 2017.

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38 minutes ago, 96mnc said:

 

10m in cash PER year for Romo gives Houston a 29m cap hit in 2017.  5m per year would be 24.5m in 2017.

I'm including bonus in that.  Bonus is allocated over the years of the contract.  So if they gave him 1M salary to meet veteran minimum and 9M in bonus, they only take half the bonus as a cap hit in 2017 on a 2 year deal.  So a 2 year, 10 million per year in actual cash flow to Romo can easily be cap hits of 5.5M and 14.5M.

 

It's no different than tax vs financial accounting.

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6 minutes ago, dabeesta17 said:

Kaepernick makes far more sense than Romo. Hell even Cutler makes more sense than Romo. Why is anyone confident Romo can stay healthy and help the Texans? He goes down, its the Tom Savage show and we already saw a few episodes of that.

 

Because if Romo stays healthy he's actually capable of playing SB caliber ball.

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1 minute ago, 96mnc said:

 

Because if Romo stays healthy he's actually capable of playing SB caliber ball.

 

Understood. But the question was what makes you think he can stay healthy? He'll be 37 when the season starts and has played in 4 games (minus mop-up duty for Dak) since 2015. Chronic back injuries are hard enough to recover from (ask Gronk and Watt)...harder when you're 37 and have barely played in two years.

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I honestly don't see myself drafting Hopkins at all.

 

Nothing changes: That worked out well last year

Romo: ADP will rise too high for a guy that has a QB that can't stay healthy at all. If he goes down Hopkins is back to sucking.

Kap: Is a**.

Cutler: Only real situation i would draft him but his ADP will probably still be too high then. Cutler isn't bad at all and Marshall did fine. He's not good by any means but not terrible.

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52 minutes ago, dabeesta17 said:

 

Understood. But the question was what makes you think he can stay healthy? He'll be 37 when the season starts and has played in 4 games (minus mop-up duty for Dak) since 2015. Chronic back injuries are hard enough to recover from (ask Gronk and Watt)...harder when you're 37 and have barely played in two years.

Would you rather have a small chance at a Super Bowl run if your QB stays healthy or a near guaranteed chance of one and done that the others provide?

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