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David Peralta 2017 Outlook


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36 minutes ago, Gryfter said:

For those in weeklies, he sits against lefty starters:

 

Matt Moore - L

Jeff Samardzija - R

Matt Cain - R

Clayton Kershaw - L

Kenta Maeda - R

Alex Wood - L

Brandon McCarthy - R

 

Might be looking at a 4 start week.

 

Correction: 3 start week. The LA series is a 4 game series ending on Monday with McCarthy.

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2 minutes ago, Random Dude said:

 

Manager was quoted saying he would get some days off, presumably vs. LHP. 

 

Right, some days off, but that doesn't mean it's a 4 Start week because he's playing 3 Lefties. We'll see how it shakes up, but he's a very good hitter who's warming up right now and I really doubt they keep him in a strict platoon. 

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Just now, taobball said:

 

Right, some days off, but that doesn't mean it's a 4 Start week because he's playing 3 Lefties. We'll see how it shakes up, but he's a very good hitter who's warming up right now and I really doubt they keep him in a strict platoon. 

 

Yeah, based off the quote I wouldn't expect all the days off. 

 

He does have some significant differences in his splits for LHP vs. RHP, but he was able to hit .250 vs. LHP in 2015. For his career, .221 vs. LHP and .308 vs. RHP. He might not be a bad guy to platoon in you fantasy lineup if you can anyway. 

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Just now, Random Dude said:

 

Yeah, based off the quote I wouldn't expect all the days off. 

 

He does have some significant differences in his splits for LHP vs. RHP, but he was able to hit .250 vs. LHP in 2015. For his career, .221 vs. LHP and .308 vs. RHP. He might not be a bad guy to platoon in you fantasy lineup if you can anyway. 

 

Sure but 2015 was his first sample of big league PAs v. LHP. Maybe it's a result of platooning, small sample, or what have you, but he was better towards the end of 2015 than he was in the beginning. For example, if you take June-End of 2015, his slash is .286/.347/.429. Overall his metrics on LHP (see first post) aren't that bad, so I actually think he can be closer to a .270-.280 hitter v. LHP. 

 

I mean it's the comp I use the most  but Peralta had a .375 SLG v. LHP in 2015 compared to Yelich's .387 SLG v. LHP in 2016. I don't think you'd platoon Christian Yelich. 

 

And I'm higher on him than most, that's fine. But if I'm "sheltering" him from lefties, I'm doing it mostly against Kershaw and Bum and not Matt Moore or Alex Wood. 

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It's been a little bit of a slow start, but he's ranked #2 right now in average exit velocity. The average launch angle has been 10% versus 8% in 2015. 10% to 30% is considered ideal. 

 

So far his batted ball profile has shifted  from line drives to fly balls and this is probably part of the explanation for why his BABIP is so low right now (.250). However, I think it's safe to project this to regress toward career norms given the small sample size. That should help his BABIP significantly. He's still hitting the ball hard, and I like his outlook for the season. 

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On 4/13/2017 at 7:48 PM, Random Dude said:

It's been a little bit of a slow start, but he's ranked #2 right now in average exit velocity. The average launch angle has been 10% versus 8% in 2015. 10% to 30% is considered ideal. 

 

So far his batted ball profile has shifted  from line drives to fly balls and this is probably part of the explanation for why his BABIP is so low right now (.250). However, I think it's safe to project this to regress toward career norms given the small sample size. That should help his BABIP significantly. He's still hitting the ball hard, and I like his outlook for the season. 

I read a post about his EV to which alerted me to him. Have since traded Granderson for him. Never knew much about this guy but Taob's post along with him having 2HRs/2SBs despite a slow start has gotten me interested. He could be really useful in that lineup too, as a 4-5 fantasy OF in 12 team leagues.

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Going up against 5 righties this week....so hopefully we'kk get a couple HRs at least. Still really like this guy as my OF4 going forward...

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2 minutes ago, ChicksDigTheOPS said:

12th in exit velocity right now... is he seeing fairly regular at-bats?

has anyone watched him at the plate? how does he look?

His at bats last week were dreadful. Late on everything. Just didn't look comfortable at the plate at all.

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I think his rookie season was a fluke...Pitchers have probably figured him out.

 

Also his at bats dont look that encouraging...he just doesn't pass the eye test for me...just my thoughts tho!

 

2 minutes ago, ChicksDigTheOPS said:

Inciarte looks really good. I'd prefer him over Peralta, too. 

so if Peralta is a bum, are we just assuming that his rookie season .893 OPS was a fluke, and last years struggles weren't due to injury? 

 

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I still have a share but outside of one good game, he was brutal this past week. If he keeps hitting like this, he's going to play his way out of that valuable spot in the lineup vs. RHP. If he doesn't show anything against right handed pitching this week, I'm moving on. I'm not scared that someone else is going to scoop him up right now anyway. 

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He goes to Petco next but then has a home stand  that culminates with SD and COL. He's a FA in a couple of my leagues and he'll have my attention going into those series versus suspect pitching staffs.

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Last week wasn't a good week to start him. I actually benched him last week in my weekly league, but i'm playing him this week. He crushes RHP and can't hit lefties very much at all. ARI faced 4 lefties last week. Kershaw, Bumgarner, Hill, and Moore. Safe to say any lefty would struggle against that group. Most of his off days will be on days that there is a LHP on the mound. This kid has the talent and his rookie year was not a fluke. As long as he's healthy he will surprise this year. Already has 2 HR and 2 SB, I mean come on mannnn....

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1 hour ago, einstein2u said:

sitting my wire and getting iffy production from my OF with guys like Cdickerson as the only guy with a pulse.  you guys see him as a OF4 or closer to OF3?

 

I think he could be closer to an OF2 by years end. 

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4 hours ago, Random Dude said:

I still have a share but outside of one good game, he was brutal this past week. If he keeps hitting like this, he's going to play his way out of that valuable spot in the lineup vs. RHP. If he doesn't show anything against right handed pitching this week, I'm moving on. I'm not scared that someone else is going to scoop him up right now anyway. 

 

Fair in terms of management and you dont' know what a team will do, but he has a 43.8% Hard%, a nearly identical Contact rate, Batted ball profile (LD/FB/GB and Spray), and a .200 BABIP. I will openly admit that I haven't been able to watch him enough, but his Fangraphs SCREAMS that his bad numbers are a fluke right now. His Whiff% is down from 2015 at 9.2% and his Z-Contact is at 90%. I have a hard time believing the strikeouts for one even remotely sustain, and he's not a .200 BABIP hitter. 

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11 hours ago, Random Dude said:

I still have a share but outside of one good game, he was brutal this past week. If he keeps hitting like this, he's going to play his way out of that valuable spot in the lineup vs. RHP. If he doesn't show anything against right handed pitching this week, I'm moving on. I'm not scared that someone else is going to scoop him up right now anyway. 

 

Not moving on.

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