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Charlie Morton 2017 Outlook


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13 minutes ago, reckoner said:

Starting tonight vs. TEX?

 

Yep. Texas is 13th in OPS versus righthanded pitchers and 23rd in OPS on the road. They don't scare me like some of their past teams. Also, the opposing pitcher is fringe major leaguer Nick Martinez.

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Advance metrics looks pretty good for Morton, but one thing that concerns me is his  hard% is at 42.7. Maybe some of the advance metrics gurus could elaborate on if this is something to worry about.

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2 hours ago, fletch44 said:

 

Yep. Texas is 13th in OPS versus righthanded pitchers and 23rd in OPS on the road. They don't scare me like some of their past teams. Also, the opposing pitcher is fringe major leaguer Nick Martinez.

What difference does the opposing pitcher make? You don't chase wins , or at least I don't, but watch out for ratios. Just curious as that is something I never check except for some batters.

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Food for thought: Righties are hitting .359 and slugging .651 against Morton so far this season. Don't see this start as a slam dunk against a potentially dangerous Texas O in that bandbox Houston calls a park. Good luck to those of you starting him.

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22 minutes ago, FISH ON said:

Food for thought: Righties are hitting .359 and slugging .651 against Morton so far this season. Don't see this start as a slam dunk against a potentially dangerous Texas O in that bandbox Houston calls a park. Good luck to those of you starting him.

This is a good tip - FWIW, today's righties appear to be DeShields, Andrus, Lucroy, Napoli and Rua. Personally I'm taking the start.

Edited by matdotmarshall
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21 minutes ago, FISH ON said:

Food for thought: Righties are hitting .359 and slugging .651 against Morton so far this season. Don't see this start as a slam dunk against a potentially dangerous Texas O in that bandbox Houston calls a park. Good luck to those of you starting him.

 

The other way to see this is that there is some regression due as he has always been viable against RHBs. 

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Starting in all three of my Pro leagues tonight with confidence. I've been on this bandwagon since day one and I'll ride it until the goddamn wheels fall off. 

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20 minutes ago, Dislimb said:

Starting in all three of my Pro leagues tonight with confidence. I've been on this bandwagon since day one and I'll ride it until the goddamn wheels fall off. 

 

Nice to see someone with the balls to make a risky bet. Kudos

Edited by My Dinner With Andre
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nick martinez is actually a little interesting in his own right at the moment; swstr% is up 2% this year, velo seems to be up - i know there's a lot of confusion about velo because of the measurement changes, but, nick martinez's seems to be up a LOT - it was 89.7 two years ago, last year 91.4, so far this year it's 93.7. and he's been getting good results

 

this isn't a reason not to use morton, but, i wouldn't just assume nick martinez will definitely be bad

 

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11 minutes ago, My Dinner With Andre said:

 

Nice to see someone with the balls to make a risky bet. Kudos

I've liked the guy since he was with Pittsburgh. Really loved his GB% back then. Looked even better with Philly last year in limited time. He's now in the top 10% of starting pitchers when it comes to average FB velocity as well and gets the most run support he's ever had. Unfortunately, two of his starts thus far we're against James Paxton who is just blowing teams away. I'm all-in on Morton with very few exceptions (@ Colorado, etc.) and hope he stays healthy enough to give us all 20ish starts.

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2 hours ago, Low and Away said:

What difference does the opposing pitcher make? You don't chase wins , or at least I don't, but watch out for ratios. Just curious as that is something I never check except for some batters.

 

Naturally you have a better chance at a win the weaker the apposing pitcher. 6 IP 3 ER from Morton gives you a pretty reasonable chance at a win versus Nick Martinez. Versus Yu ? Not as likely you're getting a win. Also many leagues play with losses as a negative category where it becomes even more a factor.

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2 minutes ago, fletch44 said:

 

Naturally you have a better chance at a win the weaker the apposing pitcher. 6 IP 3 ER from Morton gives you a pretty reasonable chance at a win versus Nick Martinez. Versus Yu ? Not as likely you're getting a win. Also many leagues play with losses as a negative category where it becomes even more a factor.

Different strokes  as I have never played in a league with losses as a category and as I said have never chased wins.

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37 minutes ago, wily mo said:

nick martinez is actually a little interesting in his own right at the moment; swstr% is up 2% this year, velo seems to be up - i know there's a lot of confusion about velo because of the measurement changes, but, nick martinez's seems to be up a LOT - it was 89.7 two years ago, last year 91.4, so far this year it's 93.7. and he's been getting good results

 

this isn't a reason not to use morton, but, i wouldn't just assume nick martinez will definitely be bad

 

Notice the difference in hard% between Martinez and Morton? Morton over 42% and Martinez is around 18. Safe to assume Martinez when he does get hit, not getting hit hard, and Morton is by the high hard %?

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1 hour ago, wily mo said:

nick martinez is actually a little interesting in his own right at the moment; swstr% is up 2% this year, velo seems to be up - i know there's a lot of confusion about velo because of the measurement changes, but, nick martinez's seems to be up a LOT - it was 89.7 two years ago, last year 91.4, so far this year it's 93.7. and he's been getting good results

 

this isn't a reason not to use morton, but, i wouldn't just assume nick martinez will definitely be bad

 

but, of course, he might be bad

 

morton meanwhile seems to have picked up where he left off in his last start so far

 

... am i jinxing it? should i not jinx it?

 

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1 hour ago, wily mo said:

 

but, of course, he might be bad

 

morton meanwhile seems to have picked up where he left off in his last start so far

 

... am i jinxing it? should i not jinx it?

 

 

I own him. It might be pretty fun until he gets hurt. I just hope he will be back 100% for the fantasy playoffs. 

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4 minutes ago, Random Dude said:

 

I own him. It might be pretty fun until he gets hurt. I just hope he will be back 100% for the fantasy playoffs. 

 

Huh, can you see into the future? What's that supposed to mean? 

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Nice start tonight. He should roll into next week as an ok 2 start pitcher. He's got a favorable matchup against the Braves (Bartolo Colon) on the 9th but the Yankees on the 14th (Tanaka). 

 

What would be great is if one of their games gets rained out and push everybody back a day. That'll set him up with a solid 2 start week (15 May - 21 May) Miami and Cleveland.

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37 minutes ago, Cdub2k said:

Nice start tonight. He should roll into next week as an ok 2 start pitcher. He's got a favorable matchup against the Braves (Bartolo Colon) on the 9th but the Yankees on the 14th (Tanaka). 

 

What would be great is if one of their games gets rained out and push everybody back a day. That'll set him up with a solid 2 start week (15 May - 21 May) Miami and Cleveland.

I'd honestly prefer the first pairing.

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1 hour ago, Red Sox Nation said:

Pitched like a stud tonight. Idk what his "hard hit %" will go down as, but I didn't see a whole lot. He's showed improving command each start. There's A LOT to like here. 

Coming in to tonight his hard hit % is 4th highest in the league at 42.7. Just food for thought.

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I remain a believer - most interesting, what I didn't realize preseason, was his preternatural ability to deal with men on.  That raises his floor.

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