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Martavis Bryant 2017 Outlook


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I wonder what Martavis route tree is. I am starting to think that he just can't put it all together. Destined to be a deep threat lightly used WR like the aforementioned Tyrell Williams. Those guys seem to grow on trees and what you're looking for in fantasy is the guy who develops into the total package and becomes his QBs trusted WR1. Still too early to completely write him off especially with that bum formerly known as a good QB throwing to him but a very disappointing season

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1 hour ago, TennisMenace said:

I am starting to realize that Pitt is content to control the clock with rushes by Bell, dump offs to Bell, and possession passes to Brown. When Brown is covered quickly throw it to JuJu who is closer to Ben and easier for him to see.  This way they control the clock and keep their defense fresh.  No need for quick long strikes for two reasons: can’t control the clock and Ben can’t throw accurately that far anymore. 

Juju gets the same amount of looks as MB. It's mostly just a difference of perspective. MB was an early mid-round pick belatedly coming off great production. Juju wasn't drafted. So 3/30 is subpar for MB but promising for Juju.  Same numbers, different reference points.  Juju seems to be higher floor, lower ceiling and MB has always been low floor, high ceiling.

Ben has been awful. He might be done. They would be wise to run different routes for MB; he has better playmaking ability than Juju.  

AB was given the opportunity to make a great play by the combination of Ben+Gaines.  Gaines is on the other team.  AB was blanketed by the CB underneath and the S over top - not open. Indeed, had AB not been covered as tightly as he was, he probably wouldn't have been able to catch the ricochet.  It was a horrible decision and should've been Ben's 2nd pick forcing the ball to AB, but Gaines inexplicably botched it.  That play ends up as a PIT TD 1/100 times, an int 50/100 times.  What's the conversation today if the more probable outcome had occurred (see: JAX)?  If Pittsburgh loses and drops to 3-3 instead of 4-2, are analysts not talking about how Ben is too reliant on AB and forcing him the ball is costing wins?

This is not a moot point, as Ben has been picked on (what 4 ints?) 5% of his targets to AB?  That's an extraordinarily high number.  AB is on pace for 195 targets. That works out to 11 interceptions just on passes to AB.  If AB targets account for 50% of Ben's picks, he's on pace for 22.  If it's 5 ints on AB targets, that's 7% and 13/26 ints on the season.  Running the ball and controlling the clock doesn't work if you turn the ball over that much.  Through 6 games, Ben has thrown 8 ints for a 21 int pace.  And this only includes ints actually thrown, not those dropped (like on Sunday).

AB (74 t) is getting 34% of targets, MB (34 t) 15%, and Juju (23 t) 10%.  For his part, Le'Veon (39 t) is getting 18%.  So... Ben is throwing an int on 3-5% (8/220) of his pass attempts, but that probability almost doubles on AB targets.  Not sustainable. They need to find other options in addition to AB and Bell, the latter of whom is on pace for 438 touches over 16 games.  Splitting touches between MB and Juju is fine, but it needs to be more than 25% if the Steelers want to really compete.

Get Ben some PEDs - his career has 14 games left max, doesn't matter if he gets caught later...

 

Anyway, I'm holding Martavis til the bitter end.  He's now a highly drafted sleeper.  If the Steelers are going to be good in Ben's last year, he's going to have to get Martavis the ball 4-6 times a game (and not on WR screens; AB and Juju should be getting those).  Or trade him to Dallas/Chicago/ATL (Ryan is sneaky good going deep, look it up) for a 4th rounder.

Free Mini-Moss, aka the Alien named Martavis!

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1 hour ago, TennisMenace said:

I am starting to realize that Pitt is content to control the clock with rushes by Bell, dump offs to Bell, and possession passes to Brown. When Brown is covered quickly throw it to JuJu who is closer to Ben and easier for him to see.  This way they control the clock and keep their defense fresh.  No need for quick long strikes for two reasons: can’t control the clock and Ben can’t throw accurately that far anymore. 

Whoops, got sidetracked and forgot my original point.

 

Controlling the clock only happens when you don't turn the ball over.  Ben has turned it over at least 3 times (being generous; 2 vs JAX, 1 vs KC) going to AB.  That's not counting what was likely to be, at the time the ball was released, a game changing interception that probably would've led to a 3-3 record (and 1-3 in last 4) because the CB flubbed it.

Ben has a 4-2 record with 7/8 td/int ratio.

Here is an alternative scenario if - again, at the time the ball was released - probability had held up:

Ben could have a 3-3 record with a 6/9 ratio.

Narrative changes a bit, no?

Dangerous to keep relying on D holding opponents to 3 scores and opponents f-ing up simple plays. Probability usually ;) wins out.

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22 minutes ago, owenmills said:

I wonder what Martavis route tree is. I am starting to think that he just can't put it all together. Destined to be a deep threat lightly used WR like the aforementioned Tyrell Williams. Those guys seem to grow on trees and what you're looking for in fantasy is the guy who develops into the total package and becomes his QBs trusted WR1. Still too early to completely write him off especially with that bum formerly known as a good QB throwing to him but a very disappointing season

 

Data heading into this season. 

 

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Edited by burninglegs
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CSB, but just got Bryant in a multiplayer trade. I have Pryor so if I can get Cooper, I’ll hit the trifecta.

 

I don’t have a bunch to add other than to say that it’s not too late for him turn it around. The problem is Ben and the game plan. If they want to give it to Bell and Brown every play, and they are winning, what will make them change?

 

i can understand benching him for players with less talent but more opportunity

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1 hour ago, Butters said:

CSB, but just got Bryant in a multiplayer trade. I have Pryor so if I can get Cooper, I’ll hit the trifecta.

 

I don’t have a bunch to add other than to say that it’s not too late for him turn it around. The problem is Ben and the game plan. If they want to give it to Bell and Brown every play, and they are winning, what will make them change?

 

i can understand benching him for players with less talent but more opportunity

This is pretty much where I am only I've been all-in for a while (dynasty) ... but yea, not too late to turn things around, just hard to count on it when PIT is winning games, even if they're winning games despite the offense rather than because of it.  Lot of season left.

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3 hours ago, affliction said:

My prediction is a season high in targets this week but he catches less than 50% of them.

Spite targets?

Intentionally poorly thrown but higher quantity targets?  Can Ben even throw it intentionally poorly? If Ben does try to throw it poorly, is he so bad now that he accidentally starts throwing well again?

 

So, so many questions

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3 minutes ago, The_Truth_Returns said:

Watched the majority of the Pitt/KC game, and there were several goal-line plays that they subbed him out for Rogers (5'11") and JuJu (6'1").  He's 6 freaking 4!  I think I've run out of optimism.  I'd be asking for a trade if I were him too.  

 

He's never been a goal line guy for whatever reason.  Deep ball and hitches are the plays he usually breaks.  Just have to keep on the bench until it happens.

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33 minutes ago, The_Truth_Returns said:

Watched the majority of the Pitt/KC game, and there were several goal-line plays that they subbed him out for Rogers (5'11") and JuJu (6'1").  He's 6 freaking 4!  I think I've run out of optimism.  I'd be asking for a trade if I were him too.  

 

Julio has never been a huge red zine/goal line guy, either, just for spits and giggles. 

 

people always just assume those taller guys will win every fade/jump ball that's lobbed, but it's really not that easy, lest each team would have a Manute Bol-like freak on the active roster.

 

??

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