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Scott Schebler 2017 Outlook


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Presumably the starting RF, and Roster Resource has him hitting 5th, as does RotoChamp. Steamer has him projected for 438 PA and a .252/.312/.440 slash line with 48-17-56-5. Zips has him at .250/.315/.449 with 72-21-79-8 in 564 PAs. Seems like a decent back-end OF bench option, depending on the league format of course. 

 

Any thoughts on Schebler going forward this year? 

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260/330/420 floor

270/340/460 ceiling

 

definitely worth a late round flyer. IMO he is being overlooked due to 1) he is a bit of a late bloomer and 2) he plays for on of the worst teams in baseball.

 

2015 he was injured

look at his AAA numbers from 2016 & what he did in the bigs the last 6 weeks of the season

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10 hours ago, Vulmear said:

260/330/420 floor

270/340/460 ceiling

 

definitely worth a late round flyer. IMO he is being overlooked due to 1) he is a bit of a late bloomer and 2) he plays for on of the worst teams in baseball.

 

2015 he was injured

look at his AAA numbers from 2016 & what he did in the bigs the last 6 weeks of the season

 

I have a hard time believing his floor and ceiling are that close. 

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1 hour ago, Flyman75 said:

 

I have a hard time believing his floor and ceiling are that close. 

 

To properly project Schebler, just rewatch that scene with Indy in the death-trap room in "Temple of Doom."

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10 hours ago, Flyman75 said:

 

I have a hard time believing his floor and ceiling are that close. 

OK. his floor is a career ending injury and his ceiling is that he tweeks his swing to get more lift & becomes Nelson Cruz 2.0

He also gets lucky with balls in play & just enough home runs. He wins the NL MVP.

how about "reasonable range of outcomes" instead of "floor and ceiling".

 

for those who think he is marginable take a look at his AAA season last year and what he did in the majors the last 6 weeks of the season. and remember that he was injured during his poor 2015 season. 

 

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Schebler might be a decent source of power but I am inclined to believe he will either do well and get traded or fall flat and get benched. Winker is the future and he is looming. This is a team in rebuild, if another team needs a LH bat off the bench or Schebs starts peaking in value he is gone.

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1 hour ago, BleedRedsRed said:

Schebler might be a decent source of power but I am inclined to believe he will either do well and get traded or fall flat and get benched. Winker is the future and he is looming. This is a team in rebuild, if another team needs a LH bat off the bench or Schebs starts peaking in value he is gone.

I'm of the opinion that Duvall is the guy who goes to the bench if/when Winker is ready. we'll know by mid season.

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3 hours ago, Vulmear said:

OK. his floor is a career ending injury and his ceiling is that he tweeks his swing to get more lift & becomes Nelson Cruz 2.0

He also gets lucky with balls in play & just enough home runs. He wins the NL MVP.

how about "reasonable range of outcomes" instead of "floor and ceiling".

 

for those who think he is marginable take a look at his AAA season last year and what he did in the majors the last 6 weeks of the season. and remember that he was injured during his poor 2015 season. 

 

 

Or how about untwisting your panties. You posted a "floor" and "ceiling" BA that were within ten points of each other. A floor would be that be flops, struggles to hit above .220, and doesn't supply enough power to maintain his spot as a starter. A ceiling would be a reasonable BA with solid power numbers. Don't get tweaked at me for making a simple statement of disagreement about about what you defined as floor and ceiling. 

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54 minutes ago, Vulmear said:

I'm of the opinion that Duvall is the guy who goes to the bench if/when Winker is ready. we'll know by mid season.

 

Schebler went to the bench last year when Duvall beat him out in spring training last year if I remember correctly and then made his way to the all star game.  He is a candidate to bust, but I'm guessing either can be benched for poor performance.

 

I like schebler too, but let's not pretend this isn't his age 26 season and he hasn't accomplished a ton yet.  His floor is definitely getting benched this season and losing his job for good (and that is without an injury).  If he does well he will probably keep his job, same with duvall.  He is a decent deep-sleeper, but without huge potential.  Winker is a decent prospect but he has certainly fell short of expectations thus far as a prospect, so I don't think he is forcing his way into a starting job until he earns it through performance.  

Edited by Numark
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45 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

 

Or how about untwisting your panties. You posted a "floor" and "ceiling" BA that were within ten points of each other. A floor would be that be flops, struggles to hit above .220, and doesn't supply enough power to maintain his spot as a starter. A ceiling would be a reasonable BA with solid power numbers. Don't get tweaked at me for making a simple statement of disagreement about about what you defined as floor and ceiling. 

OK. you don't like either of my definitions of floor and ceiling.

you say that his floor is that he washes out of the bigs & his ceiling is reasonable and solid.

having seen late bloomers win MVP awards in recent years maybe the whole use of the terms floor and ceiling isn't that useful.

 

maybe a bell shaped curve of outcomes is a better way to look at things.

and from your examples I think you are too pessimistic about Schebler (ie with your floor being a washout and your ceiling being solid it seems you are not that high on Schebler).

 

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4 hours ago, Numark said:

Winker is a decent prospect but he has certainly fell short of expectations thus far as a prospect, so I don't think he is forcing his way into a starting job until he earns it through performance.  

 

Where has he fallen short? His SLG dropped following a wrist injury, shouldn't be an issue in the long run. Everything else has been aces.

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1 hour ago, BleedRedsRed said:

 

Where has he fallen short? His SLG dropped following a wrist injury, shouldn't be an issue in the long run. Everything else has been aces.

 

I don't want to derail the thread but his ceiling looked ridiculous after the 2013 and 2014 seasons.  I think by now the expectations of what he can become has to be lowered.  Plus, whether it's injuries or his swing/stance issues, you have to raise your eyebrow at the fact he is hitting doubles instead of homeruns last year.  Still a good prospect, but looking less special than a few years ago.  He could bounce back, but that's the point, he needs to bounce back to what he can actually do

Edited by Numark
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10 hours ago, Vulmear said:

OK. you don't like either of my definitions of floor and ceiling.

you say that his floor is that he washes out of the bigs & his ceiling is reasonable and solid.

having seen late bloomers win MVP awards in recent years maybe the whole use of the terms floor and ceiling isn't that useful.

 

maybe a bell shaped curve of outcomes is a better way to look at things.

and from your examples I think you are too pessimistic about Schebler (ie with your floor being a washout and your ceiling being solid it seems you are not that high on Schebler).

 

It's not about definitions of floor and ceiling, it's about you conveying a much greater degree of certainty than is reasonable in this instance. The odds he falls between your floor and ceiling are probably less than 30%.

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Him being demoted is a realistic floor for him given he's just a corner OF with little track record/pedigree with a sup par defensive profile.

 

He needs to hit to bring value to his team.  He's probably not getting anywhere near a full season of PAs if he hits 240. Since his walk rates are sup par on top of lack of defense/base running value... That is also ignoring the fact he only had a 29 FB rate. So like the one thing he has going for him(Power) is not being fully utilized either..

Edited by Slatykamora
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It's a little telling that the Dodgers basically gave him away in the Frazier/Peraza/Montas/Thompson trade.  He was never a big prospect due to his mediocre tools across the board but it's not unreasonable to think he could put up a .260 year with 20 HR and 5 SB at some point.  Unfortunately, at this point that seems to be his reasonable ceiling for this year and it's better than 50/50 he gets replaced by Winker by May/June.

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I don't have much of an opinion on Schebler, I'm just surprised to see so many people think so much of Winker.  Even with the excuse that a wrist injury sapped his power last year he still dropped off pretty much every top 100 prospect list out there.  Seems like Winker profiles as nothing more than a solid role player in the best case scenario, why is he such a threat to playing time?  Does Winker just have a lot of political support within the organization or something?

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48 minutes ago, Weekday Warrior said:

I don't have much of an opinion on Schebler, I'm just surprised to see so many people think so much of Winker.  Even with the excuse that a wrist injury sapped his power last year he still dropped off pretty much every top 100 prospect list out there.  Seems like Winker profiles as nothing more than a solid role player in the best case scenario, why is he such a threat to playing time?  Does Winker just have a lot of political support within the organization or something?

 

He is doing just fine on prospect lists as far as fantasy concerns go. He doesn't rank very highly on non fantasy prospect lists because he is just a bad fielder, but that doesn't matter much when they stick you in LF at the Great American Bandbox and Billy Hamilton is to your left. He is still ranked 67 by MLB, 100 by FanGraphs (FanGraphs Fantasy "Mid 60's"), 48 on Baseball Prospectus Fantasy, 54 by CBS Fantasy, 39 by RotoWire Fantasy.

 

So yeah the guys not gonna win any gold gloves but he can flat out rake. He doesn't need organizational political support. Offensively he basically profiles as Christian Yelich without the speed and a better walk rate. Time will tell with the power but before his wrist troubles he displayed 15 HR power at a very young age.

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2 hours ago, Weekday Warrior said:

I don't have much of an opinion on Schebler, I'm just surprised to see so many people think so much of Winker.  Even with the excuse that a wrist injury sapped his power last year he still dropped off pretty much every top 100 prospect list out there.  Seems like Winker profiles as nothing more than a solid role player in the best case scenario, why is he such a threat to playing time?  Does Winker just have a lot of political support within the organization or something?

 

Scouts still believe Winker can hit 15+ HR to go with a good Avg and OBP skills. There's always going to be room for those type of players. 

 

Schebler has more power than Winkler but baseball is more than just hitting bombs. Winkler is a much better hitter. 

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2 hours ago, BleedRedsRed said:

 

He is doing just fine on prospect lists as far as fantasy concerns go. He doesn't rank very highly on non fantasy prospect lists because he is just a bad fielder, but that doesn't matter much when they stick you in LF at the Great American Bandbox and Billy Hamilton is to your left. He is still ranked 67 by MLB, 100 by FanGraphs (FanGraphs Fantasy "Mid 60's"), 48 on Baseball Prospectus Fantasy, 54 by CBS Fantasy, 39 by RotoWire Fantasy.

 

So yeah the guys not gonna win any gold gloves but he can flat out rake. He doesn't need organizational political support. Offensively he basically profiles as Christian Yelich without the speed and a better walk rate. Time will tell with the power but before his wrist troubles he displayed 15 HR power at a very young age.

 

I think it is a perilously slippery slope from being Yelich with less speed to being 2010-present Markakis, but that is interesting to hear that his ranking drop has more to do with real life defensive considerations than offensive upside.  I could see the organization wanting to invest a large number of ABs in Winker because they think he would be a perfect pupil for Votto to pass on his wisdom to.

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On 3/15/2017 at 2:04 PM, Vulmear said:

OK. you don't like either of my definitions of floor and ceiling.

you say that his floor is that he washes out of the bigs & his ceiling is reasonable and solid.

having seen late bloomers win MVP awards in recent years maybe the whole use of the terms floor and ceiling isn't that useful.

 

maybe a bell shaped curve of outcomes is a better way to look at things.

and from your examples I think you are too pessimistic about Schebler (ie with your floor being a washout and your ceiling being solid it seems you are not that high on Schebler).

 

  

You offered them, and I disagreed because your floor and ceiling were far too close...especially for a player like this with a wide range of potential outcomes. 

 

As for Schebler, I am neither optimistic nor pessimistic. A reason for optimism includes the fact that (last I saw on Rotochamp) he's batting 5th, so there should be a reasonable expectation for RBI. Assuming he can hold down the job all season. 

Edited by Flyman75
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