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Ezekiel Elliott 2017 Season Outlook


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1 minute ago, Sonny_D said:

 

At the WR position, if you're a good drafter, play the waiver wire correctly and plug and play based on matchups, you can more than make up the difference in WR Tier 1 to Tier 3 production. I mean besides the fact that every year guys jump into and make up the top 10, the difference between let's say Cooper (ADP of around 21 and projected for ~160 points) and Golden Tate (ADP 61 projected ~137 points) is approx. 23 total points (or 1.4 points per week).

 

But hey, everyone has their own way of drafting and assembling their teams. To each their own.

 

Too many people make streaming sound like it's so easy.  It is a viable strategy but takes a lot more work and a little more luck.  First, the right players have to be available on waivers and second, you have to pick the right player.  I've streamed plenty of times at different positions and I've done well and just completely tanked.  Last year I sucked at streaming TE and did decent at QB.

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6 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

 

Too many people make streaming sound like it's so easy.  It is a viable strategy but takes a lot more work and a little more luck.  First, the right players have to be available on waivers and second, you have to pick the right player.  I've streamed plenty of times at different positions and I've done well and just completely tanked.  Last year I sucked at streaming TE and did decent at QB.

 

Again, it's not just streaming I'm referring to. I'm simply stating non-streaming facts, or in this case, projected W3 production in comparison to who you can draft at 21. Personally, I'm confident in my own abilities to draft those W3 guys with good upside for more. Good floor/good upside.

Edited by Sonny_D
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1 minute ago, Sonny_D said:

 

Again, it's not just streaming I'm referring to. I'm simply stating non-streaming facts, or in this case, projected W3 projected production ion comparison to who you can draft at 21. Personally, I'm confident in my own abilities to draft those W3 guys that with good upside for more. Good floor/good upside.

I agree.  I usually have a bunch of WR3's on my bench that I play match-ups with.  I really don't consider it streaming since they're already on my team.  Imo any WR3 can can match WR2's or even WR1's numbers any given week since the position is so volitle with inconsistencies from week to week.

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13 minutes ago, Bugs bunny said:

I agree.  I usually have a bunch of WR3's on my bench that I play match-ups with.  I really don't consider it streaming since they're already on my team.  Imo any WR3 can can match WR2's or even WR1's numbers any given week since the position is so volitle with inconsistencies from week to week.

Antonio will guaranteed lay a couple sub 10 point stinkers this year. Partially why this whole thing may be more chance than anything.

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I just don't see the 6 game suspension sticking, if i end up having a snake draft i wouldn't mind taking him in the 2nd. (Plan on spending no more than $30 on him, like others have said it's a weekly game and i can fight the first 8 weeks if it comes down to it) 

This entire time i actually forgot all about this until i saw the pictures again but this was said to be an attempted set up from the beginning. 

Her best friend even admitting that she was asked to lie about the incident with screenshots, this suspension seems ridiculous, i fully expect him to take it to court. 

https://www.google.com/amp/deadspin.com/witness-claims-ezekiel-elliotts-girlfriend-asked-her-to-1786320742/amp

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Here's another thought that really makes me think twice about taking Zeke.  We all know the risks of taking RBs in the early rounds and those risks haven't changed.  If you were to take Zeke in the second round you'd not only have him missing games but you'd still have the risk of your first rounder busting.  If your first round player starts very slow or gets hurt while Zeke is out you're in some big trouble.  Could be a hole that Zeke can't dig you out of when he comes back.

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3 hours ago, irvnasty said:

Between regression, OL downgrade, probable Dak regression, worse gamescript, rust, elevated injury risk after suspension, etc...

 

There's a decent chance that you just used a second round pick to get a second round value.... for half the season.

 

I disagree.  Whatever he misses in rushing he'll make up for in receiving.  They've spent a lot of time developing that aspect of his game this year, and whatever gameflow is lacking for the run game, he'll make up for it with his open field abilities.  This dude is as good as it comes and it's not as if the line is bottom half anymore.  He captured the rushing title in his rookie year.  

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14 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

Why is it that Zeke is as good as it gets and he can't be bad yet Howard is at the top of most people's lists of players to bust?

 

Zeke has a rushing title  and is on a much better team which is a smarter bet than howard on a much worse team

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Just now, dashoe said:

 

Zeke has a rushing title  and is on a much better team which is a smarter bet than howard on a much worse team

 

I get that.  Does being the runner up for the rushing title while starting in fewer games and being on a worse team say anything about Howard though?  Would Howard have put together as good of season if her were on the Bear's?  Not trying to discredit Elliott at all because I really do think he's great but I feel that Howard hasn't gotten enough credit.  As if Elliott is bust proof and Howard is most likely to bust.

 

I think there's a possibility that the Cowboys are not going to be the same team by the time Elliott gets back.  The OL may not perform as well and Dak may not be as good as we think he is.  This of course is not likely but I just think there's almost too much confidence in Zeke coming back and doing exactly what he did last year to save your fantasy season.

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42 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

 

I get that.  Does being the runner up for the rushing title while starting in fewer games and being on a worse team say anything about Howard though?  Would Howard have put together as good of season if her were on the Bear's?  Not trying to discredit Elliott at all because I really do think he's great but I feel that Howard hasn't gotten enough credit.  As if Elliott is bust proof and Howard is most likely to bust.

 

I think there's a possibility that the Cowboys are not going to be the same team by the time Elliott gets back.  The OL may not perform as well and Dak may not be as good as we think he is.  This of course is not likely but I just think there's almost too much confidence in Zeke coming back and doing exactly what he did last year to save your fantasy season.

 

I think its more that people are taking a stronger view on the players teams rather than the talent.  Last season u drafted a talented zeke on a great run offense whereas howard was a late round/waiver pick on a bad team.  So not much has changed for dallas, u can debate  the o-line/slight regression/schedule but the offense should still be solid versus u can determine that the Bears are worse on offense and do u want to bet on lightning striking 2x with Howard and having similar results, particularly as defenses focus on stopping him as the best weapon.

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Anybody heard anything about the possibility of the appeals process lasting the entire year?  I doubt the suspension gets overturned but I wonder how likely it is that he doesn't actually serve his suspension until next year.

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1 hour ago, Hawkeye21 said:

Here's another thought that really makes me think twice about taking Zeke.  We all know the risks of taking RBs in the early rounds and those risks haven't changed.  If you were to take Zeke in the second round you'd not only have him missing games but you'd still have the risk of your first rounder busting.  If your first round player starts very slow or gets hurt while Zeke is out you're in some big trouble.  Could be a hole that Zeke can't dig you out of when he comes back.

Well, I mean yeah any pick could bust at any time. That's football.  

 

For me me I feel like as long as you pair Zeke with McFadden, you should be fine early on.  If you weather that storm, having a top 3 player at a 2nd round value gives you a distinct advantage heading into the playoffs. 

Edited by bigmarc27
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1 hour ago, Hawkeye21 said:

Why is it that Zeke is as good as it gets and he can't be bad yet Howard is at the top of most people's lists of players to bust?

They are on different planets both talent wise and team wise

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Just now, yanksman said:

They are on different planets both talent wise and team wise

 

 

100% agreed.  I think people have become a bit jaded about Zeke because he is fortunate enough to have been drafted to a team with the best O-Line in the league, and a competent enough QB.  People forget, this kid was THE most complete RB coming out of college since Adrian Peterson.  And he lived up to his billing. It's incredible that there are 3 young RB's in the league as talented as Bell/DJ/Zeke.  Those other 2 having proven that they are studs in the league, and even they didn't grade as high as Zeke.  All generational talents that could have succeeded in any era.  Oh yeah, and Howard.  Yeah, Howard isn't on that planet. 

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1 hour ago, timexsocialclub said:

I only have auctions left. Pretty sure I'll own him in all leagues because he's that good and he's discounted and I can find someone to fill in for him until he returns IF he misses games.

 

How much are you willing to spend on him?

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14 hours ago, Chwf3rd said:

Anybody heard anything about the possibility of the appeals process lasting the entire year?  I doubt the suspension gets overturned but I wonder how likely it is that he doesn't actually serve his suspension until next year.

 

For me, this is the real question.

 

Everybody seems to be assuming he's going to miss games this year and I'm just not sure how likely that is....Especially 6 games.  I think he's gonig to fight this thing tooth and nail and will go to court is his appeal doesn't significantly reduce his game number.  If his appeal comes back at 2 games or something, he'll probably just serve it and move on.  If it holds at 6, I think he goes to court and that's liable to turn into a long saga.

 

I'm proceeding under the assumption that he'll either miss 2-3 games or he won't miss any.  I don't think it will be six at any point this year unless he gets hurt and they drop the appeal knowing he wouldn't be able to play anyways.

 

It's a tough situation but I'm not automatically figuring he's going to miss 6 games.

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9 minutes ago, tts42572 said:

 

For me, this is the real question.

 

Everybody seems to be assuming he's going to miss games this year and I'm just not sure how likely that is....Especially 6 games.  I think he's gonig to fight this thing tooth and nail and will go to court is his appeal doesn't significantly reduce his game number.  If his appeal comes back at 2 games or something, he'll probably just serve it and move on.  If it holds at 6, I think he goes to court and that's liable to turn into a long saga.

 

I'm proceeding under the assumption that he'll either miss 2-3 games or he won't miss any.  I don't think it will be six at any point this year unless he gets hurt and they drop the appeal knowing he wouldn't be able to play anyways.

 

It's a tough situation but I'm not automatically figuring he's going to miss 6 games.

 

So far there have been zero reasons to assume he'll have anything less than 4 games.  So far all the reports I've been hearing is that it's very unlikely the NFL is going to reduce his suspension so the only shot he has is suing the NFL.  I'm not sure what would happen if he sues the NFL or even if a court would hear his case.

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Good points on both sides of the argument.

 

Has anyone given any thought to the idea of taking him early in the 2nd to prevent something like the DJ/Bell owner picking him at the back end of the 2nd? Thinking ahead I wouldn't want to face that combo in the fantasy playoffs. 

Edited by Edgeraid
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What I'm considering with Zeke is if he isn't kept this year, trying to draft him at the end of the 2nd beginning of 3rd just have him as a keeper for future fantasy seasons.  

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Another thing to think about:  Zeke will only appreciate in value throughout the year.  He will gain significant value each week that passes.  If you can draft some mid round RBs with good schedules + opportunities for playing time for the first 2 weeks, you can always reassess Zeke at that point and have the option of trading him for even more value than you spent drafting him.

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8 minutes ago, Rainyy said:

 

You're setting yourself up for disappointment. 

 

i will disagree with this this is how i think it will go either they take away the suspension or they will be going to court even if he appeals and they say ok we will knock it down to 2 games maybe zeke says no thats not good enough and still takes them to court which will likely mean this will be tied up all year 

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