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Ezekiel Elliott 2017 Season Outlook


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20 minutes ago, Bastardo! said:

 

If you drafted a guy like Hunt instead of Zeke before the turn, thinking Zeke was heading for suspension and that Hunt wouldn't make it back to you, sorry, but you are a not an "idiot."  Maybe you should think twice before throwing that word around.

 

It seems you don't understand. There are not enough total players in the NFL that were worth drafting in fantasy leagues ahead of Zeke before the 2/3 turn. That would be picks 23, 24, 25, and 26 in 12 team leagues. If your league, collectively, allowed the DJ or Bell owner to draft Zeke with the 23rd, 24th, 25th, or 26th pick then your league, collectively, is full of idiots. Does that mean your individual selection in the 2nd round of player X over Zeke was idiotic? No, it does not.

 

Also it is highly unlikely that you or someone in your league(s) spent a 2nd round draft pick on Hunt prior to his week 1 game. At the start of the month if you took Hunt early in round 2 then you are looking at an overpay of 2 rounds, so there was little danger of him not making it back to you in the third. If you took Hunt late in round 2 then you are still looking at overpay where he more than likely would have been available with your early 3rd round pick. Also whether that selection works out for you or not is irrelevant to whether it was the right move to make at that time as that is nothing more than going with your gut instead of the numbers.

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47 minutes ago, ludawg23 said:

Hindsight is 20/20 but is anyone in position to call another drafter "idiotic" or "dumb" because they passed on Zeke who had some major question marks? Or that a league is less competitive if Zeke fell to a team that already had Bell/DJ? What if his 6 game suspension was upheld? No one has had the slightest clue what was going to happen.  It was all speculation.

 

 

Every RB after Shady has question marks.

 

And for the umpteenth time Zeke should have been taken before the 2/3 turn regardless of the status of his suspension. You take him before the 2/3 turn even if the suspension is guaranteed to happen. Quit responding to discussions if you aren't even going to bother reading and understanding what is being written.

 

On paper, forgoing a chance to have Zeke in the 2nd round with one of the first 10 picks and instead taking almost any other RB typically available there is a blunder. For 10 owners to make that mistake it can be concluded that yes you are indeed playing in a less competitive league. Although I never used the term less competitive as that is not the same as referring to a league being full of idiots as I did. The non-RB drafters in round 2 could earn a pass for not selecting Zeke, but the handful of RB drafters who bypassed him thereby letting him fall to the Bell or DJ owner? That is the result of lazy analysis or being a slave to the advice of experts.

 

47 minutes ago, ludawg23 said:

 

Using a 2nd round pick and losing a guy for 6 months is tough.  If you're drafting at the end of the 1st round, there are plenty of guys who have fantasy track records that were available.  It all depends on if you are risk adverse vs being a risk taker.

 

 

No, in terms of running backs there were not "plenty of guys who have fantasy track records" that were available at the end of the first through the 2/3 turn. Not ones that would have expected return value corresponding to a 2nd round pick.

 

47 minutes ago, ludawg23 said:

If you drafted #1 or #2 overall, the talent level takes a huge dive by the end of round 2.  Can't fault anyone for taking Zeke there but you could either win the fantasy lottery (congrats on who took the chance!) or you're sitting with DJ (out for majority of the fantasy year) and then Zeke (out for 6 games if it was upheld).  You might as well pack it in for the year if it's the latter.

 

You are using information that is known now to torpedo an argument that was being made in the past without that information being available at the time. Just because DJ is now out for an extended period of time does not render the decision to use a 2/3 turn pick on Zeke stupid at the time it was made. That is just a convenience used to fit your narrative.

 

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Lots of rehashing drafts, theoretical scenarios, league specific nuances, keeper selection considerations, etc.... NOBODY CARES how or why you did or did not end up with Zeke.  Let's just put it all to bed.

 

Let's get back to Zeke himself.

Who is handcuffing here?  I don't tend to handcuff because of the concern of injury.  But in this scenario where the legal scenario isn't completely clear and there is still a small opening for him to be suspended, it's something I might consider.  My fear is that if Zeke is suspended, it wouldn't be just Alf toting the rock but DMC would be there as well too.

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6 minutes ago, disasterisk said:

 

Every RB after Shady has question marks.

 

And for the umpteenth time Zeke should have been taken before the 2/3 turn regardless of the status of his suspension. You take him before the 2/3 turn even if the suspension is guaranteed to happen. Quit responding to discussions if you aren't even going to bother reading and understanding what is being written.

 

On paper, forgoing a chance to have Zeke in the 2nd round with one of the first 10 picks and instead taking almost any other RB typically available there is a blunder. For 10 owners to make that mistake it can be concluded that yes you are indeed playing in a less competitive league. Although I never used the term less competitive as that is not the same as referring to a league being full of idiots as I did. The non-RB drafters in round 2 could earn a pass for not selecting Zeke, but the handful of RB drafters who bypassed him thereby letting him fall to the Bell or DJ owner? That is the result of lazy analysis or being a slave to the advice of experts.

 

 

No, in terms of running backs there were not "plenty of guys who have fantasy track records" that were available at the end of the first through the 2/3 turn. Not ones that would have expected return value corresponding to a 2nd round pick.

 

 

You are using information that is known now to torpedo an argument that was being made in the past without that information being available at the time. Just because DJ is now out for an extended period of time does not render the decision to use a 2/3 turn pick on Zeke stupid at the time it was made. That is just a convenience used to fit your narrative.

 

 

And your arguments are entirely based off of the fact that he is not suspended.  Easy to beat your chest and say other people made "mistakes" or are "stupid" but there was zero proof that his suspension would be delayed until they sort out this mess.  He was suspended up until the middle of last week.

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Not sure why people are arguing, high risk high reward. people weren't stupid for passing on him and people weren't stupid for drafting him. it was and still is a complete roll of the dice. I drafted him simply because I wanted a RB1 in playoffs with no risk of injury in the front half of the season.

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15 minutes ago, ludawg23 said:

 

And your arguments are entirely based off of the fact that he is not suspended.  Easy to beat your chest and say other people made "mistakes" or are "stupid" but there was zero proof that his suspension would be delayed until they sort out this mess.  He was suspended up until the middle of last week.

 

Personally, I was in here for a couple of weeks saying that there was a pretty good chance the suspension would be stayed and/or reduced. I also argued that even if the suspension was upheld, you just lost him for 6 weeks and that he would return healthy and read for the playoffs. So if you could build a really good roster around him, there was a ton of value in taking him in the 2/3 range. I questioned people that took him early in the first, but even they look smart now. 

Fantasy is a game of risk/reward. Some are just more willing to gamble than others. 

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26 minutes ago, ludawg23 said:

 

And your arguments are entirely based off of the fact that he is not suspended.  Easy to beat your chest and say other people made "mistakes" or are "stupid" but there was zero proof that his suspension would be delayed until they sort out this mess.  He was suspended up until the middle of last week.

 

i was up in here while he was still laboring under the full six games missed (no ruling at all) saying the exact same thing disasterik is ... build a team around Zeke and wait him out - and no way in hell do you let him slide to the DJ/Bell owners.  it was partly defensive by falling on the sword, partly agressive by taking a gamble that you'll be in shape to make the playoffs. 

 

 

 

Edited by pastorofmuppets2
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Just now, ludawg23 said:

 

And your arguments are entirely based off of the fact that he is not suspended.  Easy to beat your chest and say other people made "mistakes" or are "stupid" but there was zero proof that his suspension would be delayed until they sort out this mess.  He was suspended up until the middle of last week.

 

Is this a joke? You've just responded to my post having clearly not read the post in which I called you out for not reading or comprehending my previous post.

 

How many times do I have to spell this out for you?

 

Zeke should have been drafted in every league before the 2/3 turn. THIS HOLDS TRUE EVEN IF HIS 6 GAME SUSPENSION WAS A CERTAINTY AT THE TIME YOUR LEAGUE DRAFTED.

 

What part of that are you not getting? If he is/was/would be suspended when your league drafted, you should have still taken him before the 2/3 turn.

 

The expected value of Zeke (suspended for 6 games) + whatever replacement RB(s) you use to cover his suspension > the expected value of any other RB typically available in round 2 of fantasy drafts.

 

Even if Zeke was scheduled to miss the first 6 games of the season at the time your league drafted, he should have still been taken before the 2/3 turn because the expected value of a rested Zeke available in the back half of your season far outweighs the expected value of any other RB available to you in round 2. His replacement is not putting up zeroes in Zeke's absence. Fantasy drafters were grossly overestimating his value loss due to an early season suspension. If enough owners in your league made the incorrect decision to draft a different RB over Zeke in round 2 then you handed the Bell/DJ owner a gigantic advantage. That is reality. What has since happened to Zeke and DJ is not relevant to the discussion regarding Zeke's draft position when the suspension was expected.

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20 minutes ago, CooL said:

Lots of rehashing drafts, theoretical scenarios, league specific nuances, keeper selection considerations, etc.... NOBODY CARES how or why you did or did not end up with Zeke.  Let's just put it all to bed.

 

Let's get back to Zeke himself.

Who is handcuffing here?  I don't tend to handcuff because of the concern of injury.  But in this scenario where the legal scenario isn't completely clear and there is still a small opening for him to be suspended, it's something I might consider.  My fear is that if Zeke is suspended, it wouldn't be just Alf toting the rock but DMC would be there as well too.

 

I'm not cuffing. I'm generally only a fan of that strategy if there is a clear beneficiary who will step into a lead role and produce. As it stands right now, for me that list is two guys long: Derrick Henry and Tevin Coleman. If own Freeman or Murray I'm trying to cuff with those guys. Maaybeee Hyde/Breida but that's only because I'm a Breida believer. Pretty much everyone else in the league would either be a part of a committee or not talented enough/in a good enough situation (think Malcolm Brown, Branden Oliver, etc.) to be worth rostering over someone else who can help my team/a high upside lotto ticket.

 

I think this includes Alf and DMC as I believe both guys would get carries, and from what I saw of Alf on Sunday I don't think he would produce near Zeke's level even if he had the opportunity. Would I want him if Zeke went down? Yes, but not at the expense of a roster spot that can help my team in the meantime or pay off higher dividends if it hits. 

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cameras caught disasterisk on the street, moments before getting on the computer to tell us what a genius he is for drafting Zeke

 

Image result for near death gif

 

Dude, just because something -happened- to work out doesn't make you a genius for doing it.

 

It's also pretty amusing that even with the benefit of hindsight, people can't see how stupid the argument that "omg, I can't let the DJ owner draft Zeke" was.

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34 minutes ago, Fiveohnine said:

cameras caught disasterisk on the street, moments before getting on the computer to tell us what a genius he is for drafting Zeke

 

Image result for near death gif

 

Dude, just because something -happened- to work out doesn't make you a genius for doing it.

 

It's also pretty amusing that even with the benefit of hindsight, people can't see how stupid the argument that "omg, I can't let the DJ owner draft Zeke" was.

 

Another user not reading what I've written.

 

The possibility of Zeke's suspension being overturned at a later date had no bearing on whether drafting him before the 2/3 turn was the correct choice at the time your draft took place. I don't know how else to word this. 

 

Allowing the DJ/Bell owner to also draft Zeke remains a gigantic error, regardless of how it has turned out for that owner now that DJ is down.

 

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6 minutes ago, CABLE87 said:

 

No idea what this means. Truthfully, we would've heard more clear news or tidbits that are more black and white than this. I don't know if he will be suspended, but i still feel good about his chances lacing up for 16. 

 

I dont know. Who is having immense doubts?

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^^ Good for week 2:

 

Quote
Cowboys' Ezekiel Elliott: Availability confirmed for Week 2
 
September 13, 2017 11:00 AM EDT | by RotoWire Staff

NFL spokesman Joe Lockhart said Wednesday that Elliott will be cleared to play Sunday against the Broncos, but added that the legal process relating to the running back's status could be resolved at some point in 2017, Mike Garafolo of NFL Network reports.

After receiving a temporary restraining order from a Texas court last week that blocked the six-game suspension he received from the NFL for violating the league's personal conduct policy, Elliott suited up in the Cowboys' Week 1 victory over the Giants, amassing 140 total yards. Though he'll suit up again in Week 2, Elliott isn't completely in the clear for a suspension just yet after the NFL elected to file an appeal of the running back's TRO and preliminary injunction earlier this week. It could take significant time for the legal process to play out, so while Elliott will remain active for now, Lockhart's comments suggest that it's not out of the question for a suspension to be in play at some point this season. At this time, however, it's difficult to project when things might be resolved on the legal front.

 

Edited by nonstopfan
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3 hours ago, nonstopfan said:

^^ Good for week 2:

 

 

 

I believe I read somewhere that in order for the NFL to win their appeal, they have to show that the judge who granted the injunction handed down a ruling that no other reasonable judge would have. That seems extremely unlikely.

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On September 12, 2017 at 2:51 PM, '71 Bucks said:

 

I'm not cuffing. I'm generally only a fan of that strategy if there is a clear beneficiary who will step into a lead role and produce. As it stands right now, for me that list is two guys long: Derrick Henry and Tevin Coleman. If own Freeman or Murray I'm trying to cuff with those guys. Maaybeee Hyde/Breida but that's only because I'm a Breida believer. Pretty much everyone else in the league would either be a part of a committee or not talented enough/in a good enough situation (think Malcolm Brown, Branden Oliver, etc.) to be worth rostering over someone else who can help my team/a high upside lotto ticket.

 

I think this includes Alf and DMC as I believe both guys would get carries, and from what I saw of Alf on Sunday I don't think he would produce near Zeke's level even if he had the opportunity. Would I want him if Zeke went down? Yes, but not at the expense of a roster spot that can help my team in the meantime or pay off higher dividends if it hits. 

 

James Conner, dont forget James Conner

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24 minutes ago, cousinal111 said:

 

 

Scenario 2 is pretty much the worst case scenario, with Zeke probably serving his suspension during the fantasy playoffs. A little concerning that the NFL sees this as the most likely scenario, although this is again from the NFL's perspective, which may not necessarily be reality. 

 

EDIT: Although on second read, in all three of these scenarios, the suspension only begins if the NFL wins their appeal of the injunction

Edited by '71 Bucks
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