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Adam Thielen 2017 Season Outlook


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I put this in teh Diggs thread.. putting it here too

 

Note:  I have Diggs.

 

Diggs may/is great on paper but Thielen is dominating targets, yards, TDs  = fantasy points.  Bradford was comfortable throwing deep, Keenum is not/doesn't have to.

 

Guys like Thielen win you championships.

 

Team 1 - Thielen/Robby Anderson

Team 2 - Julio/Diggs

 

Guess which Team will most likely score more points in the playoffs? Guys like Robby/Thielen/Rishard/<insert late round/waiver-WRs> can consistently give you 10+ points..

 

It's that time.. the playoffs.. time to put emotions aside and play guys based on data. I'm sure Diggs will have another great game, but I benched him for Crowder and not regretting it one bit.

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10 minutes ago, maxim730 said:

I put this in teh Diggs thread.. putting it here too

 

Note:  I have Diggs.

 

Diggs may/is great on paper but Thielen is dominating targets, yards, TDs  = fantasy points.  Bradford was comfortable throwing deep, Keenum is not/doesn't have to.

 

??? I believe the opposite is true. Keenum is actually pushing the ball down the field a lot more than Bradford ever did. He doesn't always hit them, but he is willing. Keenum pushing the ball down the field and moving the offense is the only reason Bridgewater isn't starting right now.

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2017 Keenam 330 TOTAL ATTEMPTS (10 G/9 GS) 

31 attempts of over 20 yards - 9.3% of total attempts

7 over 40 yards   

204 Attempts 10 Yards or less -62% of total attempts

 

2017 Bradford 43 TOTAL ATTEMPTS (2 G) 

6 attempts over 20 yards - 7% of total attempts

ZERO over 40 yards this year 

29 Attempts to Yards or less  --67% of total attempts

 

2016 Bradford- 552 TOTAL ATTEMPTS (15 G) 

38 attempts over 20 yards  6.9% of total attempts

ZERO over 40 yards

395 Attempts 10 Yards or less ---71% of total attempts

 

Bradford is not an aggressive QB. Never has been. Keenam pushing the over 40 Yard threshold 7 more times than Bradford EVER did

 

Edited by Slatykamora
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4 hours ago, Palmetto08 said:

Thoughts on the road vs Carolina?  

 

PFF ranks Carolina slot CB Captain Munnerlyn 90th in the NFL. 

 

Evan Silva:  "Struggling in the secondary, the Panthers have given up productive wideout games Robby Anderson (6/146/2), Julio Jones (6/118/0), Jermaine Kearse (7/105/1), Michael Thomas (5/70/1), Kenny Stills (5/67/0), DeVante Parker (6/66/0), Jarvis Landry (5/42/1), and Mohamed Sanu (3/23/1) in the last month."

 

A few weeks ago I was worried about this matchup.  Not any more.

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On 11/25/2017 at 7:32 PM, SharkSwimmer said:

Not sure people are trying to "discredit" Thielen.  He's in a great situation and he is playing well.  Ride the wave while you can.  Diggs is probably more talented overall, but there is no question Thielen is more consistent, production wise and health wise.

 

It's a bit like Jordy Nelson, frankly.  Jordy was like the no. 2 overall WR in fantasy football last year because Rodgers threw him one or two red zone touchdowns every game.  Was Jordy actually that good?  Probably not, but who cares?  But now that Rodgers is out, we can all see how much of Jordy's value was based on his specific situation.

 

At the end at the end of the day, what we saw here fellas was a WR2 throwing up WR1 numbers. 

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So am I overthinking this?  I don't like Thielen here:

 

- Night game in Lambeau

- Below zero w/ wind chill

- Estimated winds of 13 MPH during the game

- Packers not playing Rodgers, good chance MIN gets up and pounds the rock

 

All the "experts" are ranking him top five.  I'm in a non-ppr and considering starting Tyreek Hill & Brandin Cooks over him.

 

I know he's had monster games in the past against Green Bay, but I don't like this situation.

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4 hours ago, XddayX said:

So am I overthinking this?  I don't like Thielen here:

 

- Night game in Lambeau

- Below zero w/ wind chill

- Estimated winds of 13 MPH during the game

- Packers not playing Rodgers, good chance MIN gets up and pounds the rock

 

All the "experts" are ranking him top five.  I'm in a non-ppr and considering starting Tyreek Hill & Brandin Cooks over him.

 

I know he's had monster games in the past against Green Bay, but I don't like this situation.

 

Primary reason I dropped keenum and playing Bortles, also sitting Diggs too. I smell a mkinnon and murray runfest

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5 hours ago, XddayX said:

So am I overthinking this?  I don't like Thielen here:

 

- Night game in Lambeau

- Below zero w/ wind chill

- Estimated winds of 13 MPH during the game

- Packers not playing Rodgers, good chance MIN gets up and pounds the rock

 

All the "experts" are ranking him top five.  I'm in a non-ppr and considering starting Tyreek Hill & Brandin Cooks over him.

 

I know he's had monster games in the past against Green Bay, but I don't like this situation.

 

The weather is scaring me a little also, but the Packers players were just told by their leaders (by sitting Rodgers) that this game means nothing. So how motivated will they be to rush the passer and defend? A team that is already pretty awful on defense. 

 

Since I own Thielen in two leagues and have Keenum in another (deciding between him/Foles and Cousins), I did some research and found this:

https://www.4for4.com/fantasy-football/how-does-cold-weather-impact-nfl-scoring

 

"During the season, it’s a question I get often on Sunday mornings. Fantasy owners want to know if they should bench a certain player due to extreme cold.

The short answer: No, cold temperatures have very little (if any) bearing on the total points scored in a game. Since actual (real-world) points scored and fantasy points scored have a relatively high correlation, cold temperatures should not significantly impact fantasy production on Sundays.

The table below shows a summary of the total points scored in extreme cold and extreme heat."

Temp. Range # Total Points
10 or below 10 43.3
20 or below 39 42.8
32 or below 278 42.6
32.1 to 79.9 3424 42.1
80 or above 233 41.5
85 or above 68 41.7
average 3935 42.1

 

Don't get me wrong, this game does scare me, but last year in Week 15, the Packers played the bears in a freezing game (temp dropped to -5 that day). Rodgers had a bad game, but Jordy put up 7-124, Cook put up 6-85. And Matt Barkley put up 362 and 2 TDs (to go along with 3 ints) and the Bears almost had 3 WRs with 100 yards receiving. 

 

So while I wouldn't feel comfortable paying up for Thielen in DFS, I can't imagine a scenario where I would bench the guy that has helped carry me to the Playoffs in the Title Game unless the weather gets really nasty/windy. I have guys like Woods/Crabtree/Funchess on my bench just in case, but I am 99pct sure I am sticking with Thielen. He seems like the kind of dude that's tough enough to handle a little cold. 

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12 hours ago, wideopen21 said:

 

The weather is scaring me a little also, but the Packers players were just told by their leaders (by sitting Rodgers) that this game means nothing. So how motivated will they be to rush the passer and defend? A team that is already pretty awful on defense. 

 

Since I own Thielen in two leagues and have Keenum in another (deciding between him/Foles and Cousins), I did some research and found this:

https://www.4for4.com/fantasy-football/how-does-cold-weather-impact-nfl-scoring

 

"During the season, it’s a question I get often on Sunday mornings. Fantasy owners want to know if they should bench a certain player due to extreme cold.

The short answer: No, cold temperatures have very little (if any) bearing on the total points scored in a game. Since actual (real-world) points scored and fantasy points scored have a relatively high correlation, cold temperatures should not significantly impact fantasy production on Sundays.

The table below shows a summary of the total points scored in extreme cold and extreme heat."

Temp. Range # Total Points
10 or below 10 43.3
20 or below 39 42.8
32 or below 278 42.6
32.1 to 79.9 3424 42.1
80 or above 233 41.5
85 or above 68 41.7
average 3935 42.1

 

Don't get me wrong, this game does scare me, but last year in Week 15, the Packers played the bears in a freezing game (temp dropped to -5 that day). Rodgers had a bad game, but Jordy put up 7-124, Cook put up 6-85. And Matt Barkley put up 362 and 2 TDs (to go along with 3 ints) and the Bears almost had 3 WRs with 100 yards receiving. 

 

So while I wouldn't feel comfortable paying up for Thielen in DFS, I can't imagine a scenario where I would bench the guy that has helped carry me to the Playoffs in the Title Game unless the weather gets really nasty/windy. I have guys like Woods/Crabtree/Funchess on my bench just in case, but I am 99pct sure I am sticking with Thielen. He seems like the kind of dude that's tough enough to handle a little cold. 

 

Nice research. And to add to what you mentioned and what I highlighted in bold, he was born in Minnesota, grew up in Minnesota, and played college football in an outdoor stadium in Minnesota. So Thielen is not unfamiliar with the cold. He also had a monster Week 16 at GB last season (12 catches, 202 yards, 2 TD's and 4 rush yards to boot), with the game in the 30s (not as cold as expected tomorrow, granted). 

 

Now hopefully Case Keenum (from Texas, went to college in Houston, and a home dome QB his entire NFL career I believe) can throw well in the cold. 

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