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Marshawn Lynch 2017 Outlook


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1 hour ago, Elwood333 said:

Ok say Lynch does get hurt.  If the news out of training camp is legit then his clear handcuff is Dwayne Washington.  I don't think there is a lot of competition for him right now at the later stages of drafts.  Stash him on your bench as insurance.  Behind the Raiders O line his fresh legs at the end of the year and a Lynch injury could be a blessing in disguise.

Dwayne Washington could be a great value pick if he's getting fantasy points for two different teams. Intriguing.

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4 hours ago, Ffguy0087 said:

Dwayne Washington could be a great value pick if he's getting fantasy points for two different teams. Intriguing.

I feel fortunate making this mistake here instead of off the waiver wire.  2 x D. Washingtons, 3 x J. Williams,  2 x M. Thomas and 2 x J. Browns on the same team.  At least its not as bad as when there were two Steve Smiths.

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19 minutes ago, PolarBear said:

Got his first pre-season touches. 

 

It was 2 runs but I thought the burst he showed and the athleticism looked like same old beast mode. He didn't look slow at all. 

 

Agreed, saw the same thing. He passed the eye test for me and that is a solid O Line he is running behind and a high powered offense. I feel much more comfortable with his ADP after tonight. 

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With that O line, Lynch will have 1000/5 without even trying so if you have "normal" folks in your league, the ADP is just right for those punting RB a bit.

 

I mean at picks 34,38,36 in my drafts this year, totally justified for a guy picking at the turn who goes WR/WR to start the draft

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I do have some concerns but he's gonna outperform RB19. Let's say he gets Murray's 14 or so carries per game last season and plays 15 games (maybe misses a game with injury or sits out the season finale). That's 210 carries.

 

With that offensive line and how good they are on the interior, I'm pretty comfortable penciling him in for 900-950 rushing yards. Fifteen RB's did that last year.

 

Seven guys scored double digit TD's on the ground last year, and six of them were of those fifteen RB's. The only one not among those fifteen to score double digit TD's? Latavius Murray with 12.

 

Beast Mode is better than Murray. I think he's a low end RB1 in standard, high end RB2 in PPR with monster TD potential.

Edited by phatrat
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3 hours ago, ThanksRG3 said:

I got him in the 4th round, pick 54 yesterday. RB19 off the board. I'll gladly take him at that value.

 

I do have some concerns but he's gonna outperform RB19. Let's say he gets Murray's 14 or so carries per game last season and plays 15 games (maybe misses a game with injury or sits out the season finale). That's 210 carries.

 

With that offensive line and how good they are on the interior, I'm pretty comfortable penciling him in for 900-950 rushing yards. Fifteen RB's did that last year.

 

Seven guys scored double digit TD's on the ground last year, and six of them were of those fifteen RB's. The only one not among those fifteen to score double digit TD's? Latavius Murray with 12.

 

Beast Mode is better than Murray. I think he's a low end RB1 in standard, high end RB2 in PPR with monster TD potential.

 

I love what I'm hearing about them keeping his carries down. Keep him fresh.

 

Latavius was 4th in the league last year in goal line attempts.and had 75% of his teams red zone attempts (also top 5). 

 

Lynch should have opportunities to rack up touchdowns.

Edited by phatrat
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Not much talk. I keep on drafting Lynch everywhere to be honest. I play the logic game in fantasy.

 

- Top 3 offensive line

- Top 5 offense

- Top 5 team in running at goal line

 

I drafted him today with 3.03 in 12 man PPR over Hunt and Cook

Drafted him at 3.11 in another 12 man PPR

Drafted him for $18 in an auction 

 

in the 5 leagues I'm in, I own him more then anyone.

 

 

I just see a gigantic TD ceiling and I'm of the belief that the year off got his legs back under him. Kinda like AP after the child thing happened. 

Edited by Folarin
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1 hour ago, Folarin said:

Not much talk. I keep on drafting Lynch everywhere to be honest. I play the logic game in fantasy.

 

- Top 3 offensive line

- Top 5 offense

- Top 5 team in running at goal line

 

I drafted him today with 3.03 in 12 man PPR over Hunt and Cook

Drafted him at 3.11 in another 12 man PPR

Drafted him for $18 in an auction 

 

in the 5 leagues I'm in, I own him more then anyone.

 

 

I just see a gigantic TD ceiling and I'm of the belief that the year off got his legs back under him. Kinda like AP after the child thing happened. 

 

+1

 

I also think the intangibles meter points up for Lynch. Fresh from a year off and playing in his beloved hometown Oakland. Lynch is going for legendary status this season. I'm so glad I own him this year. If he explodes it might be my favorite fantasy player-season of all time

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My concern with Lynch is that he gets ~10 carries a game and the offense is run with a loose RBBC. Raiders shouldn't have trouble making the postseason and they have every incentive to preserve Lynch for a postseason run. The Washington/Richard combination was sufficient to get by last season, as their o-line/passing game are more than able to carry them. 

 

Is this fear unreasonable? I just have nightmares of Lynch getting 150 carries this season. The coaching staff has already shown a penchant for a deep RB rotation. This is all without considering age-related drop off and the potential for injury, which derailed Lynch's most recent NFL season. 

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4 minutes ago, Rainyy said:

My concern with Lynch is that he gets ~10 carries a game and the offense is run with a loose RBBC. Raiders shouldn't have trouble making the postseason and they have every incentive to preserve Lynch for a postseason run. The Washington/Richard combination was sufficient to get by last season, as their o-line/passing game are more than able to carry them. 

 

Is this fear unreasonable? I just have nightmares of Lynch getting 150 carries this season. The coaching staff has already shown a penchant for a deep RB rotation. This is all without considering age-related drop off and the potential for injury, which derailed Lynch's most recent NFL season. 

 

I don't think it's unreasonable, but if Lynch gets 12 carries a game and most of the Goal Line work he could do 800/16. And that's fine for his draft slot. 

 

Latavius finished as RB13. He had 195 Carries, 788 Yards, and 12 TDs. I think Lynch has a shot of rolling out of bed and doing that, and that's a fine return on his current price, especially cause I think Lynch is a guy more likely to slip in drats than be reached for. CSB, but he fell to the 4th/5th turn in my only serious snake draft. I'm definitely investing at the current price. 

 

Latavius Murray played 14 Games last year. He got over 15 attempts 5 times. 9 Times he was at 15 or under. This is a valuable RB position to own. It's similar to the Cowboys. If a RB is on the team and is the #1 back they're at LEAST an RB2. 

Edited by taobball
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1 minute ago, Savatage79 said:

I was able to pull a trade for him, I'm pumped. I think he rolls hard this season behind that line.. I know people hate latavius but the guy didn't have the worst season, it was decent.. Lynch I'm sure will do awesome 

 

Agree man. My chips are in on Lynch this year. OAK will have a great offense this year and he's primed for a solid season. Who else will tote the rock in the end zone?

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I wrote this up for someone in the Assistant Coach Forum who was getting worried about Lynch's sparse play in preseason; thought maybe the information should be in this thread as well...

 

Lynch doesn't have to prove anything to anyone in preseason.  He's got the job.  Heck, they never used to risk Adrian Peterson in preseason at all--so I'm not surprised they would have Lynch on a pretty cozy snap count while the games don't matter.  And that's the reason why the touches he HAS gotten haven't been 30 yard Beastmodes (more like take-what's-blocked-and-fall-downs), he's just not motivated enough by preseason games to do that.  I mean, his stats aren't BAD--he has 4 carries for 16 yards (4.0 ypc), and it was nice to see him catch a 7 yard pass in PreWeek 3--but he isn't in Beast Mode yet, either.

 

Lynch operates by motivation, and the incentives he has to perform this year are plentiful--once the games count, anyway.  First of all, he has a chance to be a part of a Super Bowl run with his hometown team, in what will be one of their final years IN his hometown.  That personal motivation is important to him.  But money also motivates him ("I'm only here so I don't get fined."), and his contract is so incentive-laden, he basically makes money with every yard he gains and every TD he scores.  Here are some of the incentive clauses in Lynch's contract.

 

Base salary:  $1.35 million

$500,000 in per-game roster bonuses (he gets roughly $31,000 for every game he's on the active roster)

Scores 9 TDs:  $250,000

Scores 12 TDs:  an additonal $250,000

Gains 400 total yards:  $400,000

Gains 500 total yards:  an additional $400,000

Gains 600 total yards:  an additional $400,000

Gains 800 total yards:  an additional $600,000

Gains 1000 total yards:  an additional $600,000

Each 100 yards beyond 1000 (up to 1600):  an additional $250,000

Total yardage package:  $3.9 million

Another $1.5 million in team production incentives, starting with a playoff berth

Total possible value of Lynch's first-year contract:  $8.9 million

 

This is not one of those contracts players sign and get paid no matter what they do, so they coast their way through the season.  This is a Beast Mode contract, and I can totally understand why he (and the team) would not want to risk releasing the Beast right now.  But if there's anything left inside of him, you can rest assured we're going to see it this season when it matters.

 

I could definitely see him getting to that 800-1000 yard plateau, and the Raiders' offense in general should be good enough to put him in a position to fall into the end zone 12 times for that scoring bonus.

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4 minutes ago, Axe Elf said:

I wrote this up for someone in the Assistant Coach Forum who was getting worried about Lynch's sparse play in preseason; thought maybe the information should be in this thread as well...

 

 

 

I'm thinking closer to 1,500/16 if he stays healthy.

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Just now, Ffguy0087 said:

I'm thinking closer to 1,500/16 if he stays healthy.

 

Let me know how that works out for you.

 

The TDs are a possibility, but even as a Lynch owner, I would think about 1200 yards would be the ceiling.  I guess you never know when the Skittles kick in, though.

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Just now, Axe Elf said:

 

Let me know how that works out for you.

 

The TDs are a possibility, but even as a Lynch owner, I would think about 1200 yards would be the ceiling.  I guess you never know when the Skittles kick in, though.

I'm all in. I have 104 copies of Lynch already!!!

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