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Marshawn Lynch 2017 Outlook


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6 minutes ago, petekrum said:

31 years old coming off a two year hiatus, and fools rush in,....

 

Beast Mode has only been out of the league for one season. AD was about the same age coming off his lost season, and he led the NFL in rushing.  I don't see Marshawn doing that in 2017 for a few reasons, but It's not crazy to think he could crack the top-10 in fantasy points.  It all depends on where he's drafted -- seems like he could really pay off as an RB3/4.

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12 minutes ago, eg4190 said:

 

Beast Mode has only been out of the league for one season. AD was about the same age coming off his lost season, and he led the NFL in rushing.  I don't see Marshawn doing that in 2017 for a few reasons, but It's not crazy to think he could crack the top-10 in fantasy points.  It all depends on where he's drafted -- seems like he could really pay off as an RB3/4.

 

By all means, draft away.

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11 hours ago, eg4190 said:

 

Beast Mode has only been out of the league for one season. AD was about the same age coming off his lost season, and he led the NFL in rushing.  I don't see Marshawn doing that in 2017 for a few reasons, but It's not crazy to think he could crack the top-10 in fantasy points.  It all depends on where he's drafted -- seems like he could really pay off as an RB3/4.

 

Look at it like he missed a year for an injury. Thats how I will. If he is in shape and healthy, I would have no worries about considering him as a RB2. He will have all the opportunity, and from what I have read here from some is the line is the most important thing to a RB, and he will have one of the best. lol He was hurt his last year so getting a full grade on if his wheels came off is tough, but we should be able to find that out before the draft to an extent. I actually believe he has more left in the tank than AP, but thats just my own opinion. 

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It all comes down to his fitness IMO.  If Lynch is in shape and dedicates himself back to football, I see no reason he can't be an RB2 at least.  The Raiders O-Line is one of the best in the league, Derek Carr is a phenomenal QB, and the WRs will help spread the field.  The offense should be in tons of positions to score, and that means Lynch should get plenty of carries around the goal line.  I don't expect 1800 yards by any means, but with that offense and line, I could reasonably expect 900-1100 yards, but with 10+ TDs.  Latavius had 12 TDs, so I definitely expect double digits from Marshawn.

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1 hour ago, Mavis said:

 

Look at it like he missed a year for an injury. Thats how I will. If he is in shape and healthy, I would have no worries about considering him as a RB2. He will have all the opportunity, and from what I have read here from some is the line is the most important thing to a RB, and he will have one of the best. lol He was hurt his last year so getting a full grade on if his wheels came off is tough, but we should be able to find that out before the draft to an extent. I actually believe he has more left in the tank than AP, but thats just my own opinion. 

 

 

Mavis, when a guy gets injured for the year, he still surrounds himself around trainers, nutrition experts, etc...  Do we know if Lynch did the same?  Because as far as I can tell, the guy was cruising in retirement.   Just worth noting.

 

so, while in theory, its easy to digest the idea that he's been gone with the thought that he was simply injured, I wonder how much of being away from football has a factor on his output

Edited by Rizzle630
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The only way he will have value is the way Murray did for most of the year last year and that is a goalline back.  Lynch will probably get 10 TD's but the yardage will be way down.  If you want to gamble on a TD every week sounds like the guy for you.  

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1 hour ago, Rizzle630 said:

 

 

Mavis, when a guy gets injured for the year, he still surrounds himself around trainers, nutrition experts, etc...  Do we know if Lynch did the same?  Because as far as I can tell, the guy was cruising in retirement.   Just worth noting.

 

so, while in theory, its easy to digest the idea that he's been gone with the thought that he was simply injured, I wonder how much of being away from football has a factor on his output

 

Cant dispute that, but thats assuming that he just gave up on his body. Possible, but not likely. These guys are not typical people, their bodies at least the majority of them, are easier to get back in shape then if they are normal every day people like us. He will have the best trainers and health program again, he ate skittles and still dominated. There is a lot that can be assumed with Lynch I suppose. 

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16 hours ago, Ffguy0087 said:

Maybe it's my Hawks bias, but I'd be all over Marshawn long before I even considered AP or JC.

 

It's wait and see mode for me on all three until I see where AP/JC land and we get an idea of what kind of shape Marshawn is in. I may be in the minority here, but Lynch behind that Oakland o-line intrigues me if the price is right. I just worry he'll go in the top 25 based on name value alone. If that's the case, I won't be a buyer.

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7 minutes ago, mrblonde1984 said:

 

It's wait and see mode for me on all three until I see where AP/JC land and we get an idea of what kind of shape Marshawn is in. I may be in the minority here, but Lynch behind that Oakland o-line intrigues me if the price is right. I just worry he'll go in the top 25 based on name value alone. If that's the case, I won't be a buyer.

 

Yup.  Just wait and see to look at ADPs.  If I'm staring at Lynch vs Jeremy Hill in the 5th round, and already have my WRs, I might be willing to bite at this point, assuming he has no health flags and looks fine in preseason.

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3 hours ago, cowboy5xsbs said:

The only way he will have value is the way Murray did for most of the year last year and that is a goalline back.  Lynch will probably get 10 TD's but the yardage will be way down.  If you want to gamble on a TD every week sounds like the guy for you.  

 

Calling it now - Lynch = RB1. He doesn't wanna go back to Bear Grylls, he's here to stay.

I'll eat crow if I'm wrong, GLADLY, but you and Krum are bout to miss out passin up on Lynch ;)

 

IF, of course he plays.

Edited by mvttchew
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1 hour ago, mvttchew said:

 

Calling it now - Lynch = RB1. He doesn't wanna go back to Bear Grylls, he's here to stay.

I'll eat crow if I'm wrong, GLADLY, but you and Krum are bout to miss out passin up on Lynch ;)

 

IF, of course he plays.

 

I won't miss out if he's available where he SHOULD be available, the problem is he's gonna go well before that.

 

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Recency bias in full effect in here.  We're talking about a guy who was 6th, 5th, 5th, and 4th in PPR the 4 years leading up to his injury.  He had an injury marred season, which went down the tube.  The first season he's ever played less than 13 games, and let's not forget it's the same year SEA gave up (uhhh... the new Saints Center who was really good, that they traded for Graham) and the OLine started to really go down the drain.  Another year off, and I agree about the concerns of his conditioning during that year.  But this thought has been on Lynch's mind for at least a few months at this point, and he still has, what... 6 month before week 1?  I think he's more likely to be in shape than E.Lacy who's currently a 5th round ADP.  I think even an old Marshawn is still better than L.Murray who's been 10th and 13th in back to back years in the least impressive way possible.  I think Marshawn has just as much chance to return to form as AP who's a 3rd round pick right now without even having a team.  I'd rather bet on Lynch on OAK, than L.Murray on MIN, probably ahead of CJA in the 3rd, who also isn't healthy and might not even be for week 1.  Rather Lynch than Rawls in the 4th.  Lynch would be ranked right in the 14-20 range among RBs, and would be priced fairly in the mid-late 3rd.  A decent value in the 4th, and a steal in the 5th.

 

Seeing him run in preseason will be the ultimate factor... again, assuming this even happens.

 

 

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1 hour ago, FFCollusion said:

Recency bias in full effect in here.  We're talking about a guy who was 6th, 5th, 5th, and 4th in PPR the 4 years leading up to his injury.  He had an injury marred season, which went down the tube.  The first season he's ever played less than 13 games, and let's not forget it's the same year SEA gave up (uhhh... the new Saints Center who was really good, that they traded for Graham) and the OLine started to really go down the drain.  Another year off, and I agree about the concerns of his conditioning during that year.  But this thought has been on Lynch's mind for at least a few months at this point, and he still has, what... 6 month before week 1?  I think he's more likely to be in shape than E.Lacy who's currently a 5th round ADP.  I think even an old Marshawn is still better than L.Murray who's been 10th and 13th in back to back years in the least impressive way possible.  I think Marshawn has just as much chance to return to form as AP who's a 3rd round pick right now without even having a team.  I'd rather bet on Lynch on OAK, than L.Murray on MIN, probably ahead of CJA in the 3rd, who also isn't healthy and might not even be for week 1.  Rather Lynch than Rawls in the 4th.  Lynch would be ranked right in the 14-20 range among RBs, and would be priced fairly in the mid-late 3rd.  A decent value in the 4th, and a steal in the 5th.

 

Seeing him run in preseason will be the ultimate factor... again, assuming this even happens.

 

 

I think Unger is who you're looking for.  

 

As far as Lynch, he had the bad season at age 29, and is now past the 30 mark.  I'm a little more hesitant to write it off as a lone bad season with the age risk.

It's tempting though. If you figure they're running 42 percent of the time, you're looking at roughly 420 runs as a team, so workload is there if Lynch is within 80% of his former self, without any modification to the offense that such a back would represent.

 

So I guess the question is if he's Gore or not.  I don't like making that call at that price. 

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We all want to see Beastmode one more time.

Lynch still has great name value and there is a tendency to think of him as he was when he was in his prime crushing people.

With that, I suspect his ADP will creep up to a point where an owner would need a genuinely high ROI for the spot where he was picked.

As a Raider, let's fairly say Lynch will be considered a mid to early 3rd round pick... if he looks good in camp, his ADP will go even higher.

The landing spot is that good and the player was that good.

 

I agree we have to take gambles in our drafts, but this represents a bigger gamble earlier in a draft than I would be comfortable with.

In the high 3rd, low 2nd round area we are looking at Todd Gurley, Brandon Cooks, Sammy Watkins, Amari Cooper, Carlos Hyde types.

All have good upside, and all have reasonably high floors... I would argue Lynch's ceiling is not as high as these players and his floor is lower.

 

Why is his ceiling not as high:

*He is over 30 and hasn't been good since 2014.

*He hasn't been in game shape since 2015... granted he'll have time to get in shape and people can certainly rationalize that he hasn't taken a hit in a year and a half, but I am one that subscribes to thinking that when a guy holds out he almost always gets hurt coming back... I have similar trepidation for Martavis Bryant, and Josh Gordon... while they are not holding out, they are not playing either, so I equate the situation from a physically game ready perspective... usually the soft tissue stuff.

*The Raiders run out of the shotgun, an offense where Marshawn has not traditionally been overwhelming.

*The Raiders already have two other serviceable RBs on the roster... not world-beaters, but productive enough to keep Lynch from getting the rock 20 times per game.

 

I cannot fault someone for going for it with a Raider Beastmode.

If he signs, I understand why people see the potential... I'm just going to let someone else take the gamble.

 

If I'm running the Raiders, I don't make the move and look to shore up at other positions.

This is a strong draft class for RBs, so the Raiders can get another solid RB if they were so inclined and not have to pay Beastmode's $$.

 

 

Edited by Winky
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59 minutes ago, Winky said:

We all want to see Beastmode one more time.

Lynch still has great name value and there is a tendency to think of him as he was when he was in his prime crushing people.

With that, I suspect his ADP will creep up to a point where an owner would need a genuinely high ROI for the spot where he was picked.

As a Raider, let's fairly say Lynch will be considered a mid to early 3rd round pick... if he looks good in camp, his ADP will go even higher.

The landing spot is that good and the player was that good.

 

I agree we have to take gambles in our drafts, but this represents a bigger gamble earlier in a draft than I would be comfortable with.

In the high 3rd, low 2nd round area we are looking at Todd Gurley, Brandon Cooks, Sammy Watkins, Amari Cooper, Carlos Hyde types.

All have good upside, and all have reasonably high floors... I would argue Lynch's ceiling is not as high as these players and his floor is lower.

 

Why is his ceiling not as high:

*He is over 30 and hasn't been good since 2014.

*He hasn't been in game shape since 2015... granted he'll have time to get in shape and people can certainly rationalize that he hasn't taken a hit in a year and a half, but I am one that subscribes to thinking that when a guy holds out he almost always gets hurt coming back... I have similar trepidation for Martavis Bryant, and Josh Gordon... while they are not holding out, they are not playing either, so I equate the situation from a physically game ready perspective... usually the soft tissue stuff.

*The Raiders run out of the shotgun, an offense where Marshawn has not traditionally been overwhelming.

*The Raiders already have two other serviceable RBs on the roster... not world-beaters, but productive enough to keep Lynch from getting the rock 20 times per game.

 

I cannot fault someone for going for it with a Raider Beastmode.

If he signs, I understand why people see the potential... I'm just going to let someone else take the gamble.

 

If I'm running the Raiders, I don't make the move and look to shore up at other positions.

This is a strong draft class for RBs, so the Raiders can get another solid RB if they were so inclined and not have to pay Beastmode's $$.

 

 

 

I'm not a Lynch believer, but the Raiders only went heavy shotgun once Carr broke his finger. They do a lot of runs from under center. 

 

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45 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

I'm not a Lynch believer, but the Raiders only went heavy shotgun once Carr broke his finger. They do a lot of runs from under center. 

 

 

This is correct.   Details are in the AP thread. 

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1 hour ago, joshua18 said:

 

I'm not a Lynch believer, but the Raiders only went heavy shotgun once Carr broke his finger. They do a lot of runs from under center. 

 

 

Appreciate that... I did not review the stats before commenting, relying on what I pulled from memory.

I went back and looked up the stats and found following:

 

2016 stats (596 pass attempts): 

464 plays run from shotgun

398 with lone setback

 

2015 stats (605 pass attempts):

501 plays from the shotgun

345 with lone setback

 

I agree there are plenty of plays under center, but it still appears shotgun heavy.

Perhaps they adjusted the offense from 2015 to 2016, calling for more under center plays, and then scrapped it after he got hurt?

Admittedly, I do not recall the Raider games from early in the season...  

Edited by Winky
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3 hours ago, Winky said:

*The Raiders run out of the shotgun

 

Great post all around, I just challenge you to back this up.

 

God, grant me the wisdom to finish reading the thread before I open my g-d-d-mn mouth.

Edited by Lord_Varys
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45 minutes ago, Winky said:

 

Appreciate that... I did not review the stats before commenting, relying on what I pulled from memory.

I went back and looked up the stats and found following:

 

2016 stats (596 pass attempts): 

464 plays run from shotgun

398 with lone setback

 

2015 stats (605 pass attempts):

501 plays from the shotgun

345 with lone setback

 

I agree there are plenty of plays under center, but it still appears shotgun heavy.

Perhaps they adjusted the offense from 2015 to 2016, calling for more under center plays, and then scrapped it after he got hurt?

Admittedly, I do not recall the Raider games from early in the season...  

 

But most shotgun plays were on known passing situations. A better use of the data would be to see how many runs came from under center vs shotgun.

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1 hour ago, joshua18 said:

 

But most shotgun plays were on known passing situations. A better use of the data would be to see how many runs came from under center vs shotgun.

 

I went to Pro-football-reference and found these stats:

 

2016: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/rai/2016.htm
234 Rushes out of 347 plays lined up under center (67% rushing plays)

199 Rushes out 700 plays lined up in shotgun (28% rushing plays)

433 rushes on a total of 1047 plays. (41%)

Shotgun formation: 67% of total plays (700/1047)

 

2015: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/rai/2015_splits.htm

245 Rushes out of 327 plays lined up under center (75% rushing plays)

125 Rushes our of 682 plays lined up in shotgun (18% rushing plays)

370 Rushes on a total of roughly 1009 plays. (37%)

Shotgun formation: 68% of total plays (682/1009)

 

The Raiders line up in shotgun formation roughly 2/3 of the time which I confusingly stated as they run out of the shotgun (inadvertently confusing run with "rush" rather than the intended run with "line up in formation").

 

Edited by Winky
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5 minutes ago, My Dinner With Andre said:

What's the worst that can happen?

 

He get's injured?

 

I actually think the worst case scenario is that he plays 14 games and goes for 800/6, but does it in an erratic way where he busts most weeks while battling nagging injuries, but shows just enough Beast Mode flash to make him a weekly lineup consideration.  In some ways AD did his owners a favor last year -- at least you knew not to play him after he went down in Week 2.

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