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Marshawn Lynch 2017 Outlook


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Drafting with the 4th pick for this year's draft.

Going to roll with AB as my #1 and follow that up with another top WR/RB. I'm hoping Lynch will fall into the 4th round, I'd likely look to draft him there.

Even if he flops, just knowing that my favorite player is back in the game is super exciting and great news for football in general.

 

I still think he's gonna have a great season lol. I mean its Beast Mode.

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On 4/17/2017 at 4:37 PM, jmausen said:

 

Latavius was out weeks 5 and 6 last year.

Combined, Washington and Richard rushed for 110 yards on 31 carries over those two games.  That's a 3.5 ypc average.  Latavius averaged 4.0 ypc.

People are deeply discounting the "change of pace" benefit coming in fresh against winded defenses: you're fresh and they're tired.  SCIENCE!

 

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol

 

OAK also had the 11th best run blocking line.  Not #2 like everyone likes to assume.  Pass protection is #1.

 

If Marshawn comes in and gets hurt, we're most likely looking at an RBBC with two guys you won't want to start.

 

DeAndre Washington averaged 4.9 YPC in the KC game, only 2.3 YPC against the Chargers but the Chargers run defense wasn't that bad last year.

 

Also neither were getting the bulk of carries in weeks 5 and 6.   In both games neither exceed 10 carries.

 

Not saying that either of them will be great, but it's not like they'll be expensive either if Lynch is the "man".

 

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7 minutes ago, dashoe said:

smells like raiders backfield could turn into a valuation mess

 

When in doubt, the last guy probably has the most value.

My guess is Richard will be the last guy to get drafted out of that backfield.

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57 minutes ago, mvttchew said:

Drafting with the 4th pick for this year's draft.

Going to roll with AB as my #1 and follow that up with another top WR/RB. I'm hoping Lynch will fall into the 4th round, I'd likely look to draft him there.

Even if he flops, just knowing that my favorite player is back in the game is super exciting and great news for football in general.

 

I still think he's gonna have a great season lol. I mean its Beast Mode.

I have an open spot in my league just for you.  Please seriously consider and contact me.

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6 hours ago, BlakeP42 said:

anyone that is 30 years of age or older knows this simply won't be true lol

 

Remember when Adrian Peterson sat out the 2014 season, and at age 30 returned to lead the league in rushing in 2015?

Of course not, because this forum can't remember anything beyond a single season.

 

There are plenty of things working against Marshawn, I get that, there will be many valid concerns here.

 

Food for thought though.

In 2015, Marshawn Lynch had the worst year of his Seattle Career... despite that fact, in the games he was actually involved (minimum 10 touches)

He averaged: 19 carries, 72 yards, only 3.6 YPC, .4 TD, 4 targets, 2 catches, 12 rYds, and 13 fantasy points per game in PPR scoring.

 

Last year... Isaiah Crowell was the 14th best back at years end; he averaged 13 points per game in PPR scoring.

Even on a PPG basis, it still would qualified as an RB2.

 

So at Marshawn's absolute worst, behind the SEA's garbage Oline, when Seattle's entire offense was in shambles for the first half of that season... he's an RB2.

Now we send him to a top 5 OLine, with 2 legit receiving weapons, a rising QB, Offense, and Defense, where the past RB, who I feel is JAG, managed 2 back to back top 12 seasons on a PPG basis, coming off a season where he splashed the endzone 12 times... and you're not interested in a 4th round price tag as the 16~20th back off the board?  A guy who walked away from the game, because he doesn't care about the money... a guy who said he only wants to play for the team he loves... for his home town team...  a man who was a top 5 RB for 4 years in a row, before his first major injury lost season in Seattle... and you want to write this man off in the 4th round, in favor of names like Adrian Peterson, Latavius Murray, and Tevin Coleman?

 

original.gif

 

5th round RBs like Doug Martin, Thomas Rawls, and Bilal Powell are even uglier.

I can see grouping him with Lacy and Blount(assuming NE)

At this rate, the 4th round is probably a value relative to the alternate RB options, but there are a few WRs that are interesting, and I could understand the jump for a top 3 QB here, or maybe a TE.  Rookie RB landing positions still to be determined...

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18 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

 

Remember when Adrian Peterson sat out the 2014 season, and at age 30 returned to lead the league in rushing in 2015?

Of course not, because this forum can't remember anything beyond a single season.

 

 

Personally, I find an offseason retired (with no plans to come back) as worse than an injury lost season.  On the injured season, you fully plan on playing again, are working out as much as you can around the injury, and in general taking care of yourself to come back as strong as ever.  With the retired offseason, not so much.  I'm sure he works out because he's done it his entire life, but it's hard to imagine going for the same intensity (unless he always planned on coming back).  Maybe he eats a few more skittles and gets out of shape.  Lynch was the first player I ever drafted, so it's not like I hate him

 

Now, Lynch is definitely the better option of the 30+ year old backs who've missed a year IMO, and I don't think 4th round is extreme for him (although I'd like to be WR hunting that round).  But I don't think, totality of risks, that he's a great value there either.  IF he's the full time starter, meshes with the team, and performs roughly consistent with his last year in Seattle, it's on the money, not outperforming it. 

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6 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

 

Remember when Adrian Peterson sat out the 2014 season, and at age 30 returned to lead the league in rushing in 2015?

Of course not, because this forum can't remember anything beyond a single season.

 

There are plenty of things working against Marshawn, I get that, there will be many valid concerns here.

 

Food for thought though.

In 2015, Marshawn Lynch had the worst year of his Seattle Career... despite that fact, in the games he was actually involved (minimum 10 touches)

He averaged: 19 carries, 72 yards, only 3.6 YPC, .4 TD, 4 targets, 2 catches, 12 rYds, and 13 fantasy points per game in PPR scoring.

 

Last year... Isaiah Crowell was the 14th best back at years end; he averaged 13 points per game in PPR scoring.

Even on a PPG basis, it still would qualified as an RB2.

 

So at Marshawn's absolute worst, behind the SEA's garbage Oline, when Seattle's entire offense was in shambles for the first half of that season... he's an RB2.

Now we send him to a top 5 OLine, with 2 legit receiving weapons, a rising QB, Offense, and Defense, where the past RB, who I feel is JAG, managed 2 back to back top 12 seasons on a PPG basis, coming off a season where he splashed the endzone 12 times... and you're not interested in a 4th round price tag as the 16~20th back off the board?  A guy who walked away from the game, because he doesn't care about the money... a guy who said he only wants to play for the team he loves... for his home town team...  a man who was a top 5 RB for 4 years in a row, before his first major injury lost season in Seattle... and you want to write this man off in the 4th round, in favor of names like Adrian Peterson, Latavius Murray, and Tevin Coleman?

 

original.gif

 

5th round RBs like Doug Martin, Thomas Rawls, and Bilal Powell are even uglier.

I can see grouping him with Lacy and Blount(assuming NE)

At this rate, the 4th round is probably a value relative to the alternate RB options, but there are a few WRs that are interesting, and I could understand the jump for a top 3 QB here, or maybe a TE.  Rookie RB landing positions still to be determined...

"maybe with a year off it did his body some good"  First, my reply as you quoted  was more of a sarcastic tone and attempt to say that any male North of 30 should know that its pretty dang hard to take a year off and and keep in shape.  As the male body turns the corner on 30, more changes happen then most would like or expect.  It takes a good physical work ethic as a normal average male as myself just to keep in daily shape. Its my opinion its probably a lot harder as a pro athlete, especially an NFL running back.  That being said, there are outliers in everything, as you mentioned with AP, , and no i did not forget. Your general assumption is incorrect.  I've never really stated it as impossible for Lynch, just a hard road to hoe.  Further proof in your corner is IronC also posted a list of The best Seasons by an RB over 30 years of age.  Going over that list it proves that its plenty possible for Lynch to succeed.  His talent far outweighs some of the journeyman RBs on that list, to be honest.  

 

Secondly, I'm not sure at any point i've made much of a clear response as to where i want to draft Lynch across the leagues I'm in, be it PPR or standard. I've certainty not written him off.   I appreciate your information you have provided and i believe it makes a lot of sense.  Im well aware of the situation i believe Lynch is walking into in Oak and i do find it favorable.  I like his situation currently over AP's due to as you stated, i don't think Wash/Richard will push him for many touches, esp inside the red zone,  if Lynch can stay healthy and run effectively.  I also don't see how myself questioning the durability of a violent high impact runner north of 31that has taken a full year off from the game is reaching too far across the table.  As we have seen, this is a year to year game and its a hard one.  So while i do agree Lynch is very talented and he's in a nice offensive situation, he's still going to have to work his butt off with a year removed to play an effective full season.   Its a similar feeling i have towards AP.  I feel like if Lynch is sitting there in the 4th there is no question he's going to be on my radar.  The RB position is simply a mess, IMO, and as you mentioned with those 5th round options, it can get ugly quick.

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Actually FFC, i did comment on Lynch previously.  Here were my initial thoughts

 

March 17:  "its interesting to the point that i think Oak has to bring in a power RB  given the lack of skill that Richard/Washington have in that area, as well as pass protection.    Its hard to say if Lynch can kick it back in gear and produce at a high level given his time off, but this would be a pretty ideal situation to find out given the OL and weapons that would surround him.  It will be interesting to see if this story continues to grow legs.  I also wonder though why they wouldn't just consider AP > Lynch, but it could all be a money thing, IDK."

 

March 17:  "i think IMO it has to be a bit more about money but i really have no idea to be honest.  I can't talk myself into thinking a year off Lynch is going to be less risky then a year coming off injury AP.  I don't really think anyone knows what exactly you would get from either, that OL in Oak is a dang good one though, so i could see both RBs being effective if they can stay on the field. "

 

These were my initial thoughts before either Lynch or AP were signed.  

 

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40 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

Remember when Adrian Peterson sat out the 2014 season, and at age 30 returned to lead the league in rushing in 2015?

Of course not, because this forum can't remember anything beyond a single season.

 

14 minutes ago, jbshaw said:

Personally, I find an offseason retired (with no plans to come back) as worse than an injury lost season.  On the injured season, you fully plan on playing again, are working out as much as you can around the injury, and in general taking care of yourself to come back as strong as ever.  With the retired offseason, not so much.

 

Case in point... Adrian Peterson did not sit out 2014 due to an injury.

 

Sorry you had to be the guinea pig, but it proves the point.  AP sat out 2014 because he beat the living hell out of 4 year old child, and MIN put him on the exempt list for the entire season.  He knew he wasn't playing another snap in 2014... do you think he continued to train at an NFL level each passing week, during a lost season?  Do you think the time off was good for his body?  How long do you think it took AP to get back to game shape?  How long do you think it would take Lynch, even if we assume he was a lazy mofo all year long?  How many players do you think slack off in the offseason, and then get back into NFL shape before the season starts?  How much farther out of shape is a player who suffers an ACL tear, than a player who simply retired?  Why is the 6-9 months it takes to recover from an ACL much different than the 6-9 months Lynch went on vacation?  It's April now, there's 4 months until the NFL season starts, and Marshawn rumors have been going around for another 2 on top of that.  That's 6 months time...  How long does it take?

Tim Hightower came off the couch not long ago and won many of us some championships.

Carson Palmer?  How many rookies show up in 'NFL shape'?  How long does it take them to adapt from college shape to NFL?

What about Martavis Bryant coming off a suspension this year?  Josh Gordon was a 5th round pick last year coming off his, and doesn't have nearly the resume of Lynch. (Or age, to be fair)

 

Long story short, if Calvin Johnson returned to the Lions in 2017, I really doubt we're letting him fall to the 5th round.

I'd take him in the 4th before I took Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, Sammy Watkins, or Michael Crabtree, but maybe I'm just a sucker for name value.

I have no issue with a 4th round price tag for Marshawn, and am willing to be the black sheep of the crowd, speaking out against the masses who think I'm the sucker they want to join their league, or will jump on land mines for them.

 

11 minutes ago, BlakeP42 said:

Actually FFC...

 

I'm not going to quote every person in this thread, for each specific point I make in a single post.

Yours was just the starting point, and then I continued on with discussion points related to the thread.  Not every point was directed at you, sorry if it came off that way.

 

Everyone may now carry on with the hate train.  Sorry to momentarily derail it.

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If old man Fred Jackson at 33 or so could put up about 1300 combined yards and 10 tds, a 31 year old lynch will be able to do the same or even better.  Anything can happen, but lynch is one of those pickups that could tip the scales for someone especially if they draft solid and make a few nice ww pickups. I don't see what there is to hate about lynch returning behind a great line, he's not a first round pick but I think mid to end of second round he's fair game at the moment.

Edited by Savatage79
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29 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

How long do you think it took AP to get back to game shape?  How long do you think it would take Lynch, even if we assume he was a lazy mofo all year long?  How many players do you think slack off in the offseason, and then get back into NFL shape before the season starts?  How much farther out of shape is a player who suffers an ACL tear, than a player who simply retired?  Why is the 6-9 months it takes to recover from an ACL much different than the 6-9 months Lynch went on vacation?  It's April now, there's 4 months until the NFL season starts, and Marshawn rumors have been going around for another 2 on top of that.  That's 6 months time...  How long does it take?

I can take it like a man standing up, so no worries FFC.  I enjoy the discussions

 

To the above, fair enough points/questions and I'm not sure for NFL athletes over the age of 30,31,32 years of age what a safe time line of recovery is.  My opinion though is that time and mother nature are working against them, as opposed to a guy humming along in their prime 20's.

 

31 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

What about Martavis Bryant coming off a suspension this year?  Josh Gordon was a 5th round pick last year coming off his, and doesn't have nearly the resume of Lynch. (Or age, to be fair)

....such as we have here with Bryant and the previous years reach for Gordon.  These guys are in the prime of their careers, so the comp is hard for me to draw when i think of it from a WR in their mid 20's, to 2 hard pounding RBs north of 30.  Its just my opinion, be it flawed or not, that the risk involved may be less for guys like Martavis, then it is for Lynch/AP.  Now this is simply speaking from a health and age perspective.  Obviously Bryant comes with his own risk due to the drug program, but thats a different discussion.

 

As of now i think a 4th round price sounds fair for Lynch.  The ????'s involved for players in that range and beyond are plenty, so i do understand the idea that Lynch, even at his age and a year off may posses greater upside then others in that draft range.

 

 

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2 hours ago, jbshaw said:

Personally, I find an offseason retired (with no plans to come back) as worse than an injury lost season

 

AP was punished too harshly because he punished his child too harshly (I wouldn't go so far as to say that he "beat the living hell" out of his kid but I'll leave it at that).  But I agree with what you're trying to say.

 

Marshawn Lynch made a decision to retire.  Adrian Peterson was prevented from playing by factors beyond his control.  Which old man can hold up the longest?  I'm not betting on a guy who's already quit once before, if all other factors are equal.

 

They are not, but regardless ... Motivation, passion, fire, competitiveness ... this intangible is a factor, and it's as real as 40-yd-dash times.  And AP is 99th percentile there, the stuff of legends.  Lynch quit.

 

There exists no statistic to help us guess at how Lynch or AP will produce this year.  But if I had to gamble, one or the other, which one will finish 16 games this year?  I'd bet on AP.

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Bold Prediction: Lynch finishes the season as a top 12 PPR back if he plays all 16 games. I understand Lynch is coming back from retirement, but the RB landscape as a whole is a pretty big steaming pile of ish aside from a handful of players. I like his offensive line and his offense as a whole, and he has obviously shown he can be a workhorse. I think at worst you'll get a TD dependent back that ends up being no worse than Latavius Murray was with Oakland last season. Fourth round? Seems fair.

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16 minutes ago, mrblonde1984 said:

Bold Prediction: Lynch finishes the season as a top 12 PPR back if he plays all 16 games. I understand Lynch is coming back from retirement, but the RB landscape as a whole is a pretty big steaming pile of ish aside from a handful of players. I like his offensive line and his offense as a whole, and he has obviously shown he can be a workhorse. I think at worst you'll get a TD dependent back that ends up being no worse than Latavius Murray was with Oakland last season. Fourth round? Seems fair.

Absolutely.  Murray was a ghost half the time and finished a top 12 rb based on mostly tds alone.   With Lynch u get a sliver of top 7 upside to boot.  

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1 hour ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

AP was punished too harshly because he punished his child too harshly (I wouldn't go so far as to say that he "beat the living hell" out of his kid but I'll leave it at that).  But I agree with what you're trying to say.

 

Marshawn Lynch made a decision to retire.  Adrian Peterson was prevented from playing by factors beyond his control.  Which old man can hold up the longest?  I'm not betting on a guy who's already quit once before, if all other factors are equal.

 

They are not, but regardless ... Motivation, passion, fire, competitiveness ... this intangible is a factor, and it's as real as 40-yd-dash times.  And AP is 99th percentile there, the stuff of legends.  Lynch quit.

 

There exists no statistic to help us guess at how Lynch or AP will produce this year.  But if I had to gamble, one or the other, which one will finish 16 games this year?  I'd bet on AP.

I don't think he would have came back into the league if he wasn't motivated. He doesn't need the money, and he seems plenty motivated to be playing in front of his hometown

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6 hours ago, FFCollusion said:

 

 

Case in point... Adrian Peterson did not sit out 2014 due to an injury.

 

Sorry you had to be the guinea pig, but it proves the point.  

I am a bleeping bleepity idiot sometimes.  I knew that.  Got it mixed up with the career year post ACL injury.  

 

But to your point, I do expect him to work out at least to normal NFL offseason levels during his time gone, especially since I don't recall him being sure he wasn't coming back in season for quite awhile.  I don't expect Lynch to do it for anything other than personal enjoyment. For me at least, there is a different expectation between retirement and suspension/injury

 

However, I do agree with you that Lynch in the 4th, with that line and that O, is realm of reasonable.  

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6 hours ago, FFCollusion said:

I have no issue with a 4th round price tag for Marshawn, and am willing to be the black sheep of the crowd, speaking out against the masses who think I'm the sucker they want to join their league, or will jump on land mines for them.

 

 

 

 

 

You got my attention since I was the guy who stated to join my league if you plan to take Lynch in the 4th round.

I should have taken a look at player ADP's in a ppr format and looks like it's the same group you came up with:

38 4.01 Davante Adams WR GB 8 36.7 4.9 2.07 4.12 777  
39 4.02 Adrian Peterson RB NO 5 37.5 8.8 2.01 5.12 282  
40 4.02 Demaryius Thomas WR DEN 5 37.7 4.9 2.09 5.05 1193  
41 4.03 Tyreek Hill WR KC 10 39.3 6.7 2.01 5.07 672  
42 4.04 Latavius Murray RB MIN 9 40.4 6.1 2.07 5.08 709  
43 4.04 Drew Brees QB NO 5 40.5 5.7 2.05 5.12 646  
44 4.06 Sammy Watkins WR BUF 6 42.1 4.3 2.07 5.09 905  
45 4.08 Tevin Coleman RB ATL 5 43.8 5.6 2.05 5.11 848  
46 4.09 Jordan Reed TE WAS 5 44.8 5.4 2.07 6.05 939  
47 4.10 Greg Olsen TE CAR 11 45.7 5.0 3.03 6.09 619  
48 4.11 Michael Crabtree WR OAK 10 47.1 5.7 2.11 6.07 947  
49 4.12 Andrew Luck QB IND 11 47.7 5.7 2.12 6.01 492  
50 4.12 LeGarrette Blount RB NE 9 48.2 7.0 2.07 7.05 382  

Upon further review, considering the barren landscape of RBs being drafted in the 3rd round, Ingram (3.01), Anderson (3.06), and Ware (3.08), Lynch may very well be a value pick. However now I believe (because of the scarcity of RB2s) Lynch won't realistically even make it to the 4th round in standard or ppr leagues on average. 

The NFL could have and affect on this so we still have to wait to see if a rookie or two falls into an ideal situation but for now If his ADP does indeed change to the 3rd round FFC (and everyone else), would you still take the plunge and draft him?

 

Edited by theSPANKER
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39 minutes ago, theSPANKER said:

You got my attention since I was the guy who stated to join my league if you plan to take Lynch in the 4th round.

I should have taken a look at player ADP's in a ppr format and looks like it's the same group you came up with:

38 4.01 Davante Adams WR GB 8 36.7 4.9 2.07 4.12 777  
39 4.02 Adrian Peterson RB NO 5 37.5 8.8 2.01 5.12 282  
40 4.02 Demaryius Thomas WR DEN 5 37.7 4.9 2.09 5.05 1193  
41 4.03 Tyreek Hill WR KC 10 39.3 6.7 2.01 5.07 672  
42 4.04 Latavius Murray RB MIN 9 40.4 6.1 2.07 5.08 709  
43 4.04 Drew Brees QB NO 5 40.5 5.7 2.05 5.12 646  
44 4.06 Sammy Watkins WR BUF 6 42.1 4.3 2.07 5.09 905  
45 4.08 Tevin Coleman RB ATL 5 43.8 5.6 2.05 5.11 848  
46 4.09 Jordan Reed TE WAS 5 44.8 5.4 2.07 6.05 939  
47 4.10 Greg Olsen TE CAR 11 45.7 5.0 3.03 6.09 619  
48 4.11 Michael Crabtree WR OAK 10 47.1 5.7 2.11 6.07 947  
49 4.12 Andrew Luck QB IND 11 47.7 5.7 2.12 6.01 492  
50 4.12 LeGarrette Blount RB NE 9 48.2 7.0 2.07 7.05 382  

Upon further review, considering the barren landscape of RBs being drafted in the 3rd round, Ingram (3.01), Anderson (3.06), and Ware (3.08), Lynch may very well be a value pick. However now I believe (because of the scarcity of RB2s) Lynch won't realistically even make it to the 4th round in standard or ppr leagues on average. 

The NFL could have and affect on this so we still have to wait to see if a rookie or two falls into an ideal situation but for now If his ADP does indeed change to the 3rd round FFC (and everyone else), would you still take the plunge and draft him?

 

Sorry meant to say "The NFL draft could have an affect on where Lynch ADP settles at."  

I think Lynch will not fall out of the 3rd round for drafts this season.  

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10 hours ago, zacharyringer12 said:

I don't think he would have came back into the league if he wasn't motivated. He doesn't need the money, and he seems plenty motivated to be playing in front of his hometown

 

I would say he doesnt NEED the money; we have no idea what his expenses or financial ambitions are post and a few million for a season or 2 is not pocket change. 

 

I'm skeptical about beastmodes return in terms of wanting to put in 100% effort. I have a feeling that being away from the game probably created nostalgia but not drive; I see the same thing with guys who retire to the golf course but talk about their former career accomplishments in glowing terms and talk about how they could still outperform their replacements but sort of forget that 90% of the time it was a total grind and alot of luck.

AP on the other hand doesnt want to leave the game and defying the odds is what motivates him to reach his peak performance, remains to be seen if the talent/skills are still elite.

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Marshawn is the Dennis Rodman of the NFL. You never know which version you're going to get or if they will even show up for the long haul. 

 

Elite production when motivated but can flip the switch to become a nuisance over anything. If you need an x-Factor to get you over the hump go for it. Make sure to have a backup plan and you'll be alright. I wouldn't put all my eggs in his basket case. Not going to count on him all season as one of my top two RB's. (which rd 3-4 picks typically are your starters)

 

I'd rather roll with Ware or Lamar at this point. Even a couple of the rookies if they land in a good spot like Beast Mode.

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17 hours ago, jbshaw said:

Now, Lynch is definitely the better option of the 30+ year old backs who've missed a year IMO, and I don't think 4th round is extreme for him (although I'd like to be WR hunting that round).  But I don't think, totality of risks, that he's a great value there either.  IF he's the full time starter, meshes with the team, and performs roughly consistent with his last year in Seattle, it's on the money, not outperforming it. 

 

Agreed with this. 4th round production looks like his ceiling. Raiders were not afraid to use the RBBC and take away, say 4 of Murray's 12 TDs and he falls out of the RB2 category in standard. Lynch is also old and has been out of the league for a year and seems to have some questionable commitment issues. That's a lot of risk for what looks like a 4th round ceiling.

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