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Marshawn Lynch 2017 Outlook


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47 minutes ago, FreakFries said:

 

Agreed with this. 4th round production looks like his ceiling. Raiders were not afraid to use the RBBC and take away, say 4 of Murray's 12 TDs and he falls out of the RB2 category in standard. Lynch is also old and has been out of the league for a year and seems to have some questionable commitment issues. That's a lot of risk for what looks like a 4th round ceiling.

Hmm, apparently my phone didn't push my post through.  

 

There's an attic above that ceiling.  He could conceivably come back just as strong (he's only low 30's, and has had a year off).  If he's stayed in shape, he's playing for his favorite team.  If he's channeling that for full motivation, and comes back and is beast mode, than I expect upper 4 YPC at worst behind that line with that surrounding offense.  There's a conceivable scenario where he goes 300/1500/20.  I don't think it's very likely at all, but RB4 is his ceiling in the truest definition of the word. 

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57 minutes ago, FreakFries said:

 

Agreed with this. 4th round production looks like his ceiling. Raiders were not afraid to use the RBBC and take away, say 4 of Murray's 12 TDs and he falls out of the RB2 category in standard. Lynch is also old and has been out of the league for a year and seems to have some questionable commitment issues. That's a lot of risk for what looks like a 4th round ceiling.

 

How can someone possibly determine a ceiling without seeing one practice?  One workout?  One preseason game?   

 

Unless u are @Axe Elf

;)

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2 hours ago, Impreza178 said:

 

How can someone possibly determine a ceiling without seeing one practice?  One workout?  One preseason game?   

 

Unless u are @Axe Elf

;)

 

True, I'm just guessing, but with all the risk/reasons I listed in my earlier post, I just feel like it is really unlikely he tops ROUND 4 production (i.e. 175 points tops in standard.) I am pretty confident in also guessing he will do much better than an RB4 barring injury. If he puts up 1500/20 then great! Could happen. I just see that as being extremely unlikely.

 

Whatever happened to AxeElf? All that hubris pre-season and still in hiding now?

 

Edited by FreakFries
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1 minute ago, FreakFries said:

 

True, I'm just guessing, but with all the risk/reasons I listed in my earlier post, I just feel like it is really unlikely he tops ROUND 4 production (i.e. 175 points in standard.) I am pretty confident in also guessing he will do much better than an RB4 barring injury. If he puts up 1500/20 then great! Could happen. I just see that as being extremely unlikely.

 

 

Tough to gauge if you have to draft early.   Just the GL carries makes him a Rb2.  This offense is going to have to score 28+ a game to win regularly- and the strength of those AFC foes is in the secondary.   SD/Den/KC.  

 

IF he comes out of preseason as the #1 option I'd take him in the early 4th all day long.    But we'll see

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4 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

 

Tough to gauge if you have to draft early.   Just the GL carries makes him a Rb2.  This offense is going to have to score 28+ a game to win regularly- and the strength of those AFC foes is in the secondary.   SD/Den/KC.  

 

IF he comes out of preseason as the #1 option I'd take him in the early 4th all day long.    But we'll see

 

Good points. Preseason will be interesting.

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1 hour ago, Impreza178 said:

 

Tough to gauge if you have to draft early.   Just the GL carries makes him a Rb2.  This offense is going to have to score 28+ a game to win regularly- and the strength of those AFC foes is in the secondary.   SD/Den/KC.  

 

IF he comes out of preseason as the #1 option I'd take him in the early 4th all day long.    But we'll see

He WON"T last until the 4th round.  Get that out of your system.  He will be going in the 3rd solely on name value and being the #1 RB on the offense.  

It's not happening people so forget it.

 

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33 minutes ago, theSPANKER said:

He WON"T last until the 4th round.  Get that out of your system.  He will be going in the 3rd solely on name value and being the #1 RB on the offense.  

It's not happening people so forget it.

 

Yeah you're probably right spank.   That's where the decision gets tough.   A cooks or cooper could be available,  maybe even a top qb or TE.  

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6 hours ago, Winky said:

Guys that quit and then come back always do great.

#skittlesarenotthefountainofyouth

 

 

He was appealing DUI charges to get him through his last season before "retiring".  He would have been suspended the following year.  That's all behind him now.

 

Adrian Peterson sat out one year for child abuse.  When he came back, last year happened.  Just saying.

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41 minutes ago, jmausen said:

 

He was appealing DUI charges to get him through his last season before "retiring".  He would have been suspended the following year.  That's all behind him now.

 

Adrian Peterson sat out one year for child abuse.  When he came back, last year happened.  Just saying.

Actually, when he came back, 2015 (just short of 1500 rushing yards) happened.  

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10 hours ago, Impreza178 said:

Unless u are 

;)

 

7 hours ago, FreakFries said:

If he puts up 1500/20 then great! Could happen. I just see that as being extremely unlikely.

 

Whatever happened to AxeElf? All that hubris pre-season and still in hiding now?

 

More likely 800 yards 5TDs / 10 game season, though I am rooting for Lynch.... yet not drafting him, unless he's a bargain... which ain't happening.

 

If you post the elf's name three times, he'll return, so don't awaken him. Better to summon Axe Alf, humor over hubris

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14 minutes ago, cohenstantinople said:

More likely 800 yards 5TDs / 10 game season

 

April's reminder that 800/5 on 10 games, is a season long pace of 1,280/8.

That would have made him the 4th highest rusher in the league last year, and tied for T11th in TDs.

800/5 on 10, would be 11 standard fantasy points per game, completely ignoring ANY receiving stats... would be a top 20 back on a per game basis.

 

1,280/8, again ignoring ANY receiving stats, is 176 standard fantasy points... which would have been good for 14th overall in 2016.

Add the 264 reception yards L.Murray had last year, and it would jump Lynch to a top 10 back for 2016.

 

If you believe he can get that type of production, he's still a 'bargain' even in the 3rd round...

 

If you meant he'll have 800/5 on 16 games or get injured and only play 10 games... then I apologize for misunderstanding, please ignore this post.

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28 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

 

April's reminder that 800/5 on 10 games, is a season long pace of 1,280/8.

That would have made him the 4th highest rusher in the league last year, and tied for T11th in TDs.

800/5 on 10, would be 11 standard fantasy points per game, completely ignoring ANY receiving stats... would be a top 20 back on a per game basis.

 

1,280/8, again ignoring ANY receiving stats, is 176 standard fantasy points... which would have been good for 14th overall in 2016.

Add the 264 reception yards L.Murray had last year, and it would jump Lynch to a top 10 back for 2016.

 

If you believe he can get that type of production, he's still a 'bargain' even in the 3rd round...

 

If you meant he'll have 800/5 on 16 games or get injured and only play 10 games... then I apologize for misunderstanding, please ignore this post.

 

No, you got me right: I think Lynch will be great until he goes down... solid line, balanced offense, and he really wants it, wants to be a Raider. I'm not an LMurray fan, and I can only imagine the elderly post-retired Lynch will have more success. I'd be hopeful for 2/3 of the season. 

 

Thanks for the extrapolation. Puts the 3rd round into perspective. 

 

 

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On ‎4‎/‎26‎/‎2017 at 9:51 AM, theSPANKER said:

I have an open spot in my league just for you.  Please seriously consider and contact me.

 

lol, I'm grateful that you at least did your research.

I mean granted, it was after you tried to call me out, but glad you came to your senses and realized beast mode is a decent pick if he makes it to the 4th.

 

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  • 2 weeks later...

After posting on Lynch in the PPR RB thread, I figured I should expand here.

 

Now that some OTA data points are in, I am beginning to believe that Lynch means business with this "homecoming" circus thing.  I've been familiar with Lynch since his days at Cal.  To say that he marches to his own drum beat is a gross understatement.  Don't assume he has "unretired" for non-football reasons.  Since he signed with Oakland, the buzz around the facility has been full steam ahead.  And don't estimate the aura that Lynch projects in a locker room.  His teammates already love him.  I am believing more each day that Lynch becomes the heart and soul of the Raider offense in 2017.

 

Finally, it is impossible to pin down or quantify, but there is a potential link between Lynch and Oakland's planned move to Vegas that should not be ignored.  Oakland is a unique place.  Athletes who hail from there have their own fraternity.  Lynch's sense of roots is legit.  The disenfranchised fans of Oakland will be looking for something to sooth their pain this season.  Who better than the charismatic, native son Lynch.  In other words, Lynch is going to have both his teammates and the fan base solidly behind him.

 

It could all fizzle if Lynch's body doesn't hold up.  However, if Lynch really is in superb shape as is being reported, and if the year off has really refreshed him, than I am already in the process of convincing myself that Lynch will be "the story" in Oakland, if not in the entire NFL, this season.  Bold prediction, I know, but the signs are beginning to emerge, clear as day.  It is a story that deserves close monitoring, that's for sure.   

Edited by Rolling Thunder
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  • 3 weeks later...
36 minutes ago, pikerbkb said:

Wow I didn't know the Raiders traded fro Eddie Lacy lol. Man he looked fat in that clip!

 

What are you smoking?  Looks like he was wearing baggy clothes, but more importantly, he had burst, speed, and vision.  He also broke the ankles of their DB.

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51 minutes ago, kdko said:

 

What are you smoking?  Looks like he was wearing baggy clothes, but more importantly, he had burst, speed, and vision.  He also broke the ankles of their DB.

Yep. Breaking ankles in flag football. Fastest fat man I've ever seen. 

It was a joke friend. Of course half the fun is watching people get worked up over a fat joke. 

He actually looked fine but again it is non-contact. 

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