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Marshawn Lynch 2017 Outlook


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21 hours ago, dashoe said:

he is in such a good offense with no competition i need to rethink his value .  I mean if gore has been defying the odds all these years why can't beastmode?

 

He is in a fantastic offense.

 

The wild card here is the "native son" boost factor.  With Oakland packing its bags for Vegas, what's left of the fan base is craving a home town hero for 2017.  Lynch knows it, and he's dead serious about ending his career as just that.  His contract is heavily incentive laden, so you know he is not pretending to play in order to pull down one last fat annual paycheck.

 

He's a locally beloved, veteran stud runner in excellent shape who means business on one of the best offensive squads in the game.  I like the odds that he makes a big splash, perhaps even becoming one of the top stories of the entire NFL season.  

Edited by Rolling Thunder
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I've been keeping an eye on Marshawn's ADP since the announcement and he's still climbing, currently sitting at RB10. 2.5 in 12 team standard leagues. A little lower in PPR ofc. He's the first RB off the board after Bell, DJ, Zeke, Gordon, McCoy, Murray, Freeman, Howard, and Ajayi, which most people would have in some order atop their rankings before any other RB in most cases for standard. The hype is real.

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5 hours ago, Ffguy0087 said:

I've been keeping an eye on Marshawn's ADP since the announcement and he's still climbing, currently sitting at RB10. 2.5 in 12 team standard leagues. A little lower in PPR ofc. He's the first RB off the board after Bell, DJ, Zeke, Gordon, McCoy, Murray, Freeman, Howard, and Ajayi, which most people would have in some order atop their rankings before any other RB in most cases for standard. The hype is real.

I wish we knew for sure who the cuff was. Both Wash and Richard are cheap but to roster both is unwieldy.    

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8 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

I wish we knew for sure who the cuff was. Both Wash and Richard are cheap but to roster both is unwieldy.    

 

Both will have value because both will be available late enough to not hurt you if they don't pan out.

Personally, I like Richard more...

Washington kept getting thrown in there, and he had some successes, but I think that was more a function of his draft status vs. earned opportunity.

Richard outperformed Washington, imo.

Edited by Winky
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On 6/6/2017 at 9:05 PM, dashoe said:

he is in such a good offense with no competition i need to rethink his value .  I mean if gore has been defying the odds all these years why can't beastmode?

 

Gore never retired. 

 

"I'm done. I'm done. I enjoyed my time playing. Now it's time to watch my cousins do their thing," Lynch said during an interview with "60 Minutes Sports" that will air Tuesday night on Showtime. "I'm retired. Is that good enough? Which camera do you want me to look into? This one? I'm done. I'm not playing football anymore."

 

His body broke down and told him to quit, and he listened. His body broke down because he is old and runs violently. 

 

I'm praying he really does get drafted in the 2nd round. Let Fournette and Crowell fall that much further. 

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Having followed Lynch closely since his days at Cal (I'm a Bay Area native and a Cal alum), I've been advocating that folks not dismiss his homecoming as a publicity stunt.  His 2017 story could end up a perfect storm of high accomplishments and good feelings.  However, age/health could easily derail his come back train.  Drafting him in the 2nd round doesn't account sufficiently for that substantial risk.  No other way to analyze it.

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2 hours ago, Rolling Thunder said:

Having followed Lynch closely since his days at Cal (I'm a Bay Area native and a Cal alum), I've been advocating that folks not dismiss his homecoming as a publicity stunt.  His 2017 story could end up a perfect storm of high accomplishments and good feelings.  However, age/health could easily derail his come back train.  Drafting him in the 2nd round doesn't account sufficiently for that substantial risk.  No other way to analyze it.

 

2nd rd is much to high for an unknown quantity, not sure why people are moving him so high ahead of guys like hyde/cja etc. if he falls to 4th rd, that's where I think his value is goven his risk and then u take guys like perkins-dougie-twest-gils-blount in the later rounds that u can plug in as a sort of lynch bust insurance so u don't have a points vacuum in the rb slot

Edited by dashoe
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His last year in the league Lynch couldn't stay on the field to save his life. He was having back problems that would not leave amongst other health concerns. During that season his YPC was the lowest since 2010. Now he has spent well over a year away from the game.

 

However, he will magically become a RB1. Well isn't that something...

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1 hour ago, Gohawks said:

"However, he will magically become a RB1. Well isn't that something..."

 

Doesn't seem like he would need the money, although I wouldn't be surprised to learn that he's broke too. The storyline bores me, but that is a good offense and he is in position to assume the volume. Was in a 12-team standard earlier at yahoo and he went with the 22nd pick. e;   

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26 minutes ago, markrc99 said:

 

Doesn't seem like he would need the money, although I wouldn't be surprised to learn that he's broke too. The storyline bores me, but that is a good offense and he is in position to assume the volume. Was in a 12-team standard earlier at yahoo and he went with the 22nd pick. e;   

Ouch... that's just too much 

 

rather have a Ware/ CJA 2-3 rounds later 

rather have an Abdullah/ Martin 4-5 rounds later 

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Colossal bust this year. He won't make it the whole season. This is coming from a dynasty owner who had him in his prime in Seattle and loved him in real and fantasy football. To me, he left everything on the field and his body isn't what it once was. 2nd round is NUTS.

 

ETA: I am curious to know who the handcuff here is because I think he will be very valuable.

Edited by timexsocialclub
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On 6/18/2017 at 8:16 AM, Winky said:

 

Both will have value because both will be available late enough to not hurt you if they don't pan out.

Personally, I like Richard more...

Washington kept getting thrown in there, and he had some successes, but I think that was more a function of his draft status vs. earned opportunity.

Richard outperformed Washington, imo.

 

Agreed, as these guys with both go late enough to be a dart throw / guess. Took Washington late last year because I liked him, and because I don't believe in LMurray, but watching the Raiders last year I also like Richard more: he was quicker and more explosive. Sometimes those UDFAs play with something to prove and he seemed to be fighting (for his role on the team) each game. 

Warren Moon, Tony Romo, & Antonio Gates were also undrafted, and they weren't too shabby...

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30 minutes ago, cohenstantinople said:

 

Agreed, as these guys with both go late enough to be a dart throw / guess. Took Washington late last year because I liked him, and because I don't believe in LMurray, but watching the Raiders last year I also like Richard more: he was quicker and more explosive. Sometimes those UDFAs play with something to prove and he seemed to be fighting (for his role on the team) each game. 

Warren Moon, Tony Romo, & Antonio Gates were also undrafted, and they weren't too shabby...

The argument for DWash is his draft pedigree and what I thought was potential talent between the tackles as well as shiftiness in limited space. 

The argument for Richard is his speed and his larger role even with Lynch on the field for most drives.  

 

I'd take DWash as of today but don't put a gun to my head.

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  • 5 weeks later...

I read that he has saved all of his $50million made while playing football and is living off endorsements.

He's not only a beast but a smart man. He's with his childhood team and will live out his final seasons doing great things on the field.

He has moved up on my draft board!!! Current RB#11...He replaces Bell on my Top 3. I don't like the money situation with Bell. 

 

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11 minutes ago, TX Babe Ruth said:

I read that he has saved all of his $50million made while playing football and is living off endorsements.

He's not only a beast but a smart man. He's with his childhood team and will live out his final seasons doing great things on the field.

He has moved up on my draft board!!! Current RB#11...He replaces Bell on my Top 3. I don't like the money situation with Bell. 

 

You have Lynch in your top 3 running backs for this year?!  And ahead of Lev?!  Am I reading that correctly?

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1 minute ago, JoeJoe88 said:

You have Lynch in your top 3 running backs for this year?!  And ahead of Lev?!  Am I reading that correctly?

Yes..I don't like Bell's contract situation. I feel the Beast is going to feast. He's happier and he's doing interviews and he is tuned in. 

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15 minutes ago, FinsUp24 said:

If he can stay healthy for a full 16 games, what would you guys project for his number of carries? Somewhere in the 220-250 range? Right around 15 carries a game?

 

Lynch may very well be in the midst of a perfect storm of positives, but there is one hitch to my mind.  He is at the tail end of his physical abilities, and the FO/CS know it. Hence, even if he starts and stays hot, any hint of fatigue, nagging injuries or the like will likely cause Del Rio to ramp up Richard's and DWash's usuage.  I am guessing that they will really want to protect and preserve their hometown hero.  I doubt that they push him until he breaks.  In a word, his ultimate volume concerns me, especially in terms of how it might affect his potential ceiling.  Whether he still has what it takes to be super successful, even with all the assistance Oakland can provide, is another "value" issue altogether.

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8 hours ago, Gohawks said:

The real question now is who's prediction is more terrible?

 

Joshua thinking McCaffrey is a top 4 RB or TX Babe Ruth thinking Lynch is a top 3 RB?

 

Lynch has a long history of being a top 5 back, repeating it wouldn't 'shock' me, but I'm not running to Vegas to bet on it.

 

Ask yourself this... if Lynch came back in 2016, and proved that '15 was nothing other than an injured ruined season, went on to be a top 5 RB just like every other year in Seattle, and this year got traded from SEA to OAK...  How much differently would people be judging him right now?

 

I feel like everyone is so freaked out by his year off, and the fact that his last season played was bad.  They aren't unreasonable concerns, but they are... even if accurate... short sighted?  Lynch was/is a special talent, now on the best offense he's ever been in, behind the best line he's ever had, and OAK Defense is good, not Legion of Boom good, but good.  L.Murray is JAG in my opinion, and has produced really well in this offense.  Lynch is arguably a generational talent, or was in his prime, and the possibility that the perfect storm has occurred for him, IF his ability after a year off, and an injured season is still present, is extremely enticing.

 

At his current price, I don't necessarily see him ending up on my teams, but man... I'm going to enjoy the hell out of watching him play this year.

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19 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

 

Lynch has a long history of being a top 5 back, repeating it wouldn't 'shock' me, but I'm not running to Vegas to bet on it.

 

Ask yourself this... if Lynch came back in 2016, and proved that '15 was nothing other than an injured ruined season, went on to be a top 5 RB just like every other year in Seattle, and this year got traded from SEA to OAK...  How much differently would people be judging him right now?

 

I feel like everyone is so freaked out by his year off, and the fact that his last season played was bad.  They aren't unreasonable concerns, but they are... even if accurate... short sighted?  Lynch was/is a special talent, now on the best offense he's ever been in, behind the best line he's ever had, and OAK Defense is good, not Legion of Boom good, but good.  L.Murray is JAG in my opinion, and has produced really well in this offense.  Lynch is arguably a generational talent, or was in his prime, and the possibility that the perfect storm has occurred for him, IF his ability after a year off, and an injured season is still present, is extremely enticing.

 

At his current price, I don't necessarily see him ending up on my teams, but man... I'm going to enjoy the hell out of watching him play this year.

 

Yep this is pretty much in line with how I feel about him. How far would he have to fall for you to take the plunge?

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