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Marshawn Lynch 2017 Outlook


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I mean if he can get 40-60 yards a TD most weeks...I think that'll be very obtainable. If you are expecting him to rattle off 100 yard games and a score probably need to look elsewhere but honestly most don't even do that anymore....

Edited by hard1
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22 hours ago, Rolling Thunder said:

 

Lynch may very well be in the midst of a perfect storm of positives, but there is one hitch to my mind.  He is at the tail end of his physical abilities, and the FO/CS know it. Hence, even if he starts and stays hot, any hint of fatigue, nagging injuries or the like will likely cause Del Rio to ramp up Richard's and DWash's usuage.  I am guessing that they will really want to protect and preserve their hometown hero.  I doubt that they push him until he breaks.  In a word, his ultimate volume concerns me, especially in terms of how it might affect his potential ceiling.  Whether he still has what it takes to be super successful, even with all the assistance Oakland can provide, is another "value" issue altogether.

 

41 minutes ago, Experienced Rookie said:

The combination of 30+ years old and 2400+ carries is typically the dagger point for RBs. Marshawn sits at 2100. The needle is approaching E, but he might have just enough gas left to cruise to a solid season. 

 

Couldn't disagree more regarding Lynch's age being a hitch / issue: Lynch has taken the entire year to eat nothing more than Skittles, and Skittles are like supercharged vitamins equivalent to alien technology. If anything, the regiment of this Skittles diet actually results in Lynch being younger than he was on Seattle. Thankfully, this has not yet been factored into his ADP.

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makes u wonder whats easier to accept taking gurley in the 2nd and he busts or lynch in the 3rd and he busts?

I almost feel like I can live with a gurley bust ego wise but tougher to have team recover from bad pick but can recover easier from a lynch bust but the ego takes a hit from the 'what were u thinking crowd?'

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14 minutes ago, dashoe said:

makes u wonder whats easier to accept taking gurley in the 2nd and he busts or lynch in the 3rd and he busts?

I almost feel like I can live with a gurley bust ego wise but tougher to have team recover from bad pick but can recover easier from a lynch bust but the ego takes a hit from the 'what were u thinking crowd?'

 

The "what were you thinking" crowd has never won anything of significance and never will. Trust in your own analysis, draft accordingly and live with the consequences. Many "crazy" takes at the time are genius decisions in hindsight -- the same decisions the "what were you thinking crowd" will pretend they believed in all along. 

 

These forums provide a good good place to see what perception was before, during and after breakouts. 

 

The 2014 Antonio Brown

 

and 2015 Devonta Freeman

 

threads are great examples. 

 

 

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1 hour ago, dashoe said:

makes u wonder whats easier to accept taking gurley in the 2nd and he busts or lynch in the 3rd and he busts?

I almost feel like I can live with a gurley bust ego wise but tougher to have team recover from bad pick but can recover easier from a lynch bust but the ego takes a hit from the 'what were u thinking crowd?'

If you want to win the "what were u thinking crowd" isn't a factor. 

That crowd tend to have 20/20 hindsight when it's all over said and done. 

On that note, I'm taking Beast mode over Gurley. Lynch has a better offensive line, QB, and his childhood team; it's a no brainer for me. 

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8 hours ago, joshua18 said:

 

The "what were you thinking" crowd has never won anything of significance and never will. Trust in your own analysis, draft accordingly and live with the consequences. Many "crazy" takes at the time are genius decisions in hindsight -- the same decisions the "what were you thinking crowd" will pretend they believed in all along. 

 

These forums provide a good good place to see what perception was before, during and after breakouts. 

 

The 2014 Antonio Brown

 

and 2015 Devonta Freeman

 

threads are great examples. 

 

 

 

Youre absolutely right. Falling in to group think never wins you anything. Do the research analyze the info. Be open to various sources. Then make your own decision. Let your league mates follow an ESPN ranking list straight down the line. A guarantee that never won anything. Stick to the right convictions and you can. 

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48 minutes ago, Ravensdan said:

 

Youre absolutely right. Falling in to group think never wins you anything. Do the research analyze the info. Be open to various sources. Then make your own decision. Let your league mates follow an ESPN ranking list straight down the line. A guarantee that never won anything. Stick to the right convictions and you can. 

It has won something. Sometimes the biggest idiots in the league that can't find their own a** with a flashlight win due to the ridiculous luck fantasy holds.

 

- Butthurt fantasy player

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The only thing working against Lynch is his age and the increased likelihood of injury. 

 

He has the lead back opportunity, the great offense and line around him on a competitive team in his home town.  

 

If Lynch plays the entire season, your probably looking at LEAST a stat line of - 230 attempts for 966 rushing yards, 32 grabs for 224 receiving yards and 10 total TD's.  

 

That's at the least IMO. The big question is the age and risk of injury. 

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Keep in mind.  He has a heavily incentive laden contract.  If the FO/CS believe that they can keep the running game momentum going with Richard and DWash getting more snaps, that's what they will do, espeically if Lynch starts showing his age/mileage a bit while the season wears on.  I believe in Lynch's 2017 campaign (just check my posts in the earliest pages of this thread).  I also believe, however, that his volume will be managed such that he won't have the opportunity to be a top back in scoring, especially in PPR.  I like his floor, but not his ceiling, especially in PPR (which is all I play).

Edited by Rolling Thunder
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I have a feeling his touches will be managed to keep him fresh for the playoffs because simply put OAK got to the playoffs last year but because of  the Carr injury they couldnt make a run in the playoffs and their running game was not good enough to compensate for loss of carr and attack defenses. 

I think beast will get people excited but frustrations will run high as  you see coaches manage his touches and limit his fantasy production so when he should get 25pts he  is resting on the sidelines and finishes the game with 12pts but the Raiders get the win

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11 minutes ago, dashoe said:

I have a feeling his touches will be managed to keep him fresh for the playoffs because simply put OAK got to the playoffs last year but because of  the Carr injury they couldnt make a run in the playoffs and their running game was not good enough to compensate for loss of carr and attack defenses. 

I think beast will get people excited but frustrations will run high as  you see coaches manage his touches and limit his fantasy production so when he should get 25pts he  is resting on the sidelines and finishes the game with 12pts but the Raiders get the win

 

How could it be any other way folks?

 

I suppose one possibility might be that Marshawn demands to be run into the ground before season's end.  If he is going good, we can not put anything past him.  He marches to the beat of his own drummer.  But everyone understands what he's been doing the past few years and what his physical limitations likely are right now.  The FO won't say it, but it will be keep a close eye on all of his incentive triggers.  The team also has plenty of depth at RB in Richard and DWash.  Del Rio's style so far has been to use the depth he has.  Will that really change, even if Lynch looks good?

 

If I'm drafting someone in the 2nd or 3rd round, I want a shot at a top 5 producer.  As well as I believe Lynch will do in Oakland, I see things playing out much like Dashoe describes.

Edited by Rolling Thunder
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21 hours ago, Gohawks said:

It has won something. Sometimes the biggest idiots in the league that can't find their own a** with a flashlight win due to the ridiculous luck fantasy holds.

 

- Butthurt fantasy player

. there's always luck and chance involved.  But that's not consistent. 

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On 7/19/2017 at 0:22 PM, cousinal111 said:

Lynch over Bell is like saying you'd rather have Jack Doyle over Rob Gronkowski or Eric Decker over Antonio Brown. 

No, it's not. Doyle has never been Top 5. Never. 

Lynch has many times. Stop exaggerating. 

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http://www.csnbayarea.com/raiders/ten-questions-raiders-open-training-camp

 

Quote

4. How many carriers per game are we expecting to see from Lynch? How much platooning should we expect in our backfield? (Joe Ram)


Marshawn Lynch has taken significant carries in seasons past, with at least 280 carries from 2011-14. He is now 31 and a year removed from football, so it’s unrealistic to think his carry county returns to previous levels.

 

The Raiders ran 434 times last year, with 195 carries given to lead back Latavius Murray. That total might be a target for Lynch, especially if Jalen Richard and DeAndre Washington continue producing well. While his action should be limited in camp, the Raiders can adjust Lynch’s workload based upon health and effectiveness, with an eye on keeping him strong down the stretch.

 

That's not the first time I've seen something similar being speculated: http://www.mercurynews.com/2017/07/24/raiders-camp-preview-marshawn-lynch-aims-to-boost-backfield/

 

Quote

Running backs (7): *Marshawn Lynch, *Jamize Olawale (FB), DeAndre Washington, Jalen Richard, Taiwan Jones, Elijah Hood, John Crockett.

 

Analysis: How much does Lynch have left in his 31-year-old body after taking a year off? There may be no bigger question facing this team. The depth at running back means he won’t have to shoulder a huge load. Something in the range of the 195 carries Latavius Murray had last year should suffice, perhaps less if both Washington and Richard see an increase. Can the Raiders find a spot to keep Jones, a key special teams performer on a team that lost core guys like Brynden Trawick, Andre Holmes and Daren Bates? It could be tough if Elijah Hood shows enough in the preseason to not want to risk losing him on waivers if they try to sneak him onto the practice squad.

 

We'll see. Just speculation, nothing set in stone obviously.

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I've read hood could make d wash a cut which is preseason crazy talk....people are just throwing stuff out there....here's mine

 

Lynch about 200 carries 850 to 950 yards 20ish receptions just so it's honest  health pending floor of 8 tds room for up to 14 if the Raiders give it to him on the 1 as stated...

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1 hour ago, NYR Fan 116894 said:

<A bunch of stuff about 200 carries>

 

Latavius Murray finished 13th overall last year with just 195 carries, averaging only 4ypc.

Marshawn Lynch is currently the 11th RB off the board.

 

Even if we pretend Lynch only gets 200 carries... why is that suppose to prevent him from returning draft day value, given his ADP?

Basically Lynch has to be worse than Murray in every way, to let you down.  Or get injured, but that applies to everyone.

 

He's old I get it, but he's only really had injuries effect his production once in his entire career, 2015. (The lingering back spasms are not forgotten though)

A year off is far less detrimental to his body, than another 300 carries and 600 hits would have been last season if he played in my opinion.

 

There's plenty to be skeptical about, I'm not a fan of his price, but I'm not sure a limited workload is really going to prevent him from being successful given the history of this offense, and his assumed per-touch production IF he stays healthy, and hasn't forgot how to play football.  Luckily pre-season will help clear this all up.  I'll have to see him run before I invest, but I am excited to watch him play, regardless of whether I own him or not.

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