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Marshawn Lynch 2017 Outlook


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3 hours ago, FFCollusion said:

Latavius Murray finished 13th overall last year with just 195 carries, averaging only 4ypc.

Marshawn Lynch is currently the 11th RB off the board.

 

Even if we pretend Lynch only gets 200 carries... why is that suppose to prevent him from returning draft day value, given his ADP?

Basically Lynch has to be worse than Murray in every way, to let you down.  Or get injured, but that applies to everyone.

 

The conclusion seems reasonable enough at first glance (not disagreeing with it necessarily), but Murray was very fortunate in the scoring department, even considering the quality of the offense he was in.  Murray hit pay dirt more than anyone except Blount, DJ, Zeke and Shady.  If I did my math correctly, Murray's TD points per carry was .37 (72 points divided by 195 carries).  In the entire league, I believe only Gillislee and Coleman scored TDs at a higher per carry rate.  Murray's TD scoring rate even outpaced Blount and his incredible 18 TDs.

 

I suppose this is just a long winded way of saying that Oakland's lead RB, whoever that might be, is bound to encounter some scoring regression in 2017.  If the regression hits Lynch such that he scores 7-8 TDs as opposed to 11-12, he'll definitely need all of Murray's 14 carries a game (and then some) to have a chance at returning value.

 

That said, Lynch could end up being one of the top developments of the 2017 season.  The disenfranchised fan base in Oakland desperately needs a hometown hero to idolize.  Lynch could quickly become this season's biggest "feel good" story.

 

Edited by Rolling Thunder
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2 hours ago, Ffguy0087 said:

Seen him go at the first turn or one or two spots after a few times in 10 team mocks. Scary investment for such an unknown. The hype is real tho with a lot of people.

 

Thats why a lot of people have 4-9 fantasy seasons.

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10 hours ago, Rolling Thunder said:

The conclusion seems reasonable enough at first glance (not disagreeing with it necessarily), but Murray was very fortunate in the scoring department, even considering the quality of the offense he was in.  Murray hit pay dirt more than anyone except Blount, DJ, Zeke and Shady.  If I did my math correctly, Murray's TD points per carry was .37 (72 points divided by 195 carries).  In the entire league, I believe only Gillislee and Coleman scored TDs at a higher per carry rate.  Murray's TD scoring rate even outpaced Blount and his incredible 18 TDs.

 

I suppose this is just a long winded way of saying that Oakland's lead RB, whoever that might be, is bound to encounter some scoring regression in 2017.  If the regression hits Lynch such that he scores 7-8 TDs as opposed to 11-12, he'll definitely need all of Murray's 14 carries a game (and then some) to have a chance at returning value.

 

I'm not sure I agree a TD regression that big is coming, assuming Lynch is Lynch.

If Oakland is a team that can move the ball, and likes to pound it into the endzone, then the amount of carried Lynch (or Murray) gets(got) between the 20's, is not a legitimate factor in his TD per carry rate.  There are just certain teams that have specific red zone tendencies.  The Raiders are a team that don't have a dominant red zone WR, no TE to speak of, and Carr has never rushed for a TD in his life.

 

You can call for a regression from the run game, but Oakland is going to score.  If Crabtree at 6'1 215 is only averaging 8.5 a year, and Amari at 6'1 210 is only averaging 5.5 a year, then you either you have to explain why one of these guys is going to suddenly double their TD rate, or tell me that 'the field' is going to dominate Marshawn Lynch once they get inside the 20.  Marshawn, even if he's washed up between the 20's, is still the best Red Zone and Goal Line weapon the Raiders have, and I expect them to use him there early and often.

 

I think it's too short sighted to simply say the 'lead back' has to suffer a regression.

In 2016 OAK RBs combined for 20 TDs.  A 'team' regression might be coming, but that doesn't mean they have to come entirely at Lynch's expense.

 

Like I said, I have to see Lynch run before I invest in him, at his price.  I'm rooting for him though, from a real football perspective.

 

As for stats... TD points per carry is an odd one, so I'll offer what I feel are legitimate alternatives:

 

34% of L.Murray's fantasy point total, came from TDs last year.  Fairly high, but since I already did the math, of the top 50 finishing backs in PPR scoring Murray ranked 10th.  Only 9 other backs had a higher percentage of their fantasy totals come from TDs. (So he was the 10th most TD reliant RB last year)  Not great obviously.  To clarify, this isn't an attempt to disagree with or disprove you, I'm just posting the full data that seemed relevant.

 

I then did a TD per 'touch' rate, where Murray ranked 9th, where he had 1 TD for every 19 carries.  Robert Turbin lead the league with 1 TD on every 9 touches, lol.  Again, regression is a reasonable expectation here, unless you think a team is an exclusion to the rule, where they have specific red zone tendencies.  Like GB who throws a lot there, or OAK who we hope runs a lot more there.  Patterns and trends.  I don't expect Crabtree/Cooper to suddenly break out into Touchdown monsters.

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I got thinking about this today; Marshawn Lynch reminds me a lot of Joseph Randle. Not claiming that he's got Randle's criminal tendencies, but they were both largely unknown talents (Lynch being unknown because we have no idea what he's still got in the tank) being drafted purely because of their situation

 

Like Randle, I think that Lynch has an unknown ceiling, but a very real benched by October floor. It looks like his ADP is late second right now, which is ludicrous for the level of risk you're taking on.

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30 minutes ago, beware d-ware said:

I got thinking about this today; Marshawn Lynch reminds me a lot of Joseph Randle. Not claiming that he's got Randle's criminal tendencies, but they were both largely unknown talents (Lynch being unknown because we have no idea what he's still got in the tank) being drafted purely because of their situation

 

Like Randle, I think that Lynch has an unknown ceiling, but a very real benched by October floor. It looks like his ADP is late second right now, which is ludicrous for the level of risk you're taking on.

 

 Not sure I see the similarities.

 

The CS and fan base adores Lynch right now.  All Marshawn needs to do is get what's blocked and handle the GL like he knows how.  He can have a decent season at only 75% Beastmode.

 

Randle was in the fight of his life with DMC from the start.  He didn't have nearly the pedigree or goodwill that Marshawn has.

 

Marshawn is going to have to look real old  real early to bust.

 

 

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This looks like guaranteed points every week at a position that's tough to pick. 

 

I'm keeping him in a 14 team three keeper league. 

 

Got him off the wire in the dead of winter. 

 

Why not, weird s--- like this is how titles are won. 

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On August 5, 2017 at 5:39 PM, The Gridiron Assassin said:

This looks like guaranteed points every week at a position that's tough to pick. 

 

I'm keeping him in a 14 team three keeper league. 

 

Got him off the wire in the dead of winter. 

 

Why not, weird s--- like this is how titles are won. 

 

Or lost,...

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Lynch's ADP has fallen a bit as of late and has made him a more attractive draft day investment.  After seeing him go in the early 2nd just a month ago, to now a few mocks where he makes it to the late 3rd, sometimes 4th round, he's becoming a very interesting player to evaluate, especially since nothing football related has occurred, not even rumors, or coach speak.

 

With the world freaking out about him sitting during the national anthem last night, I'll gladly enjoy watching him fall down the board, for non-football related reasons.

 

Oakland Raiders running back Marshawn Lynch sat during the national anthem over the weekend, ahead of a Saturday preseason game against the Arizona Cardinals.

 

Raiders coach Jack Del Rio says he didn’t know about Lynch’s plans ahead of the game, according to NFL.com.

“On Marshawn, talked to Marshawn trying to make sure we’re on the same page,” the coach said. "He said, ‘This is something I’ve done for 11 years. It’s not a form of anything other than me being myself.’ I said, ‘So you understand how I feel, I very strongly believe in standing for the national anthem. But I’m going to respect you as a man, you do your thing. We’ll do ours.’ It’s a non-issue for me.”

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He's playing for his hometown team after a year off. His work ethic thus far in Oakland has been applauded. He's gonna be running behind one of the two best lines in all of the NFL. The Raiders figure to be in the Red Zone a ton with the emergence of Carr as an elite chain mover. 

 

Lynch has always had a lot of pride. 

 

Whatever he has left in the tank will be left on the field in the 2017 campaign. 

 

I'm betting big on this. 

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39 minutes ago, The Gridiron Assassin said:

He's playing for his hometown team after a year off. His work ethic thus far in Oakland has been applauded. He's gonna be running behind one of the two best lines in all of the NFL.

 

OAK's o-line is #1 at pass protection. For run blocking they are still good, but more towards top 12 range. Not top 2.

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4 minutes ago, burninglegs said:

 

OAK's o-line is #1 at pass protection. For run blocking they are still good, but more towards top 12 range. Not top 2.

A solid passing game can make running easier and vice versa. 

 

Lynch is a home run this season in my opinion. His floor is 10 TD's. 

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Really like Lynch this season. Plays in an offense with a great QB, Oline and WRs. He has a real shot to lead the leauge in TDs. I like him more than the usual suspects at the RB position in the 2nd round (Fournette, Gurley, Miller etc). 

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3 hours ago, Jj66 said:

Really like Lynch this season. Plays in an offense with a great QB, Oline and WRs. He has a real shot to lead the leauge in TDs. I like him more than the usual suspects at the RB position in the 2nd round (Fournette, Gurley, Miller etc). 

I like Fournette a lot more than Lynch. Fournette has a great schedule for a RB (top 5), the 13th best offensive line per ProFootballFocus, and based on beat writers the entire offensive is going to be built around distributing him as many touches as possible. He's going to be the focal point. I'm not saying he's going to have the same season as Zeke did last year by any means, but it'll be damn good that's for sure.

 

Meanwhile Lynch has the 2nd worst strength of schedule for a RB, has been away from football for over a year, and wasn't that productive the last time he did play. He may be able to rack up a fair amount of TDs this season behind that good offensive line, but I don't see him having too great of a YPC this season.

 

Lynch and Gurley are probably of similar risk, but I'll go with the 23 year old over the 31 year old that was until this year retired.

Edited by CamNewton
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3 hours ago, CamNewton said:

I like Fournette a lot more than Lynch. Fournette has a great schedule for a RB (top 5), the 13th best offensive line per ProFootballFocus, and based on beat writers the entire offensive is going to be built around distributing him as many touches as possible. He's going to be the focal point. I'm not saying he's going to have the same season as Zeke did last year by any means, but it'll be damn good that's for sure.

 

Meanwhile Lynch has the 2nd worst strength of schedule for a RB, has been away from football for over a year, and wasn't that productive the last time he did play. He may be able to rack up a fair amount of TDs this season behind that good offensive line, but I don't see him having too great of a YPC this season.

 

Lynch and Gurley are probably of similar risk, but I'll go with the 23 year old over the 31 year old that was until this year retired.

Fournette will be a top ten pick in my league, not an option. 

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I don't think there is anything to worry about with Marshawn Lynch.  He is 31 years old with a full year off to let his body heal up.  I'd like to hear some camp news on him that confirms he is in excellent football shape and that he is not easily nicked up or stuffing from soft tissue injuries but I don't see why he couldn't return to beast mode.  There was no major injury and it's not unheard of for a RB to have a good year when over the age of 30.  

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1 minute ago, Elwood333 said:

I don't think there is anything to worry about with Marshawn Lynch.  He is 31 years old with a full year off to let his body heal up.  I'd like to hear some camp news on him that confirms he is in excellent football shape and that he is not easily nicked up or stuffing from soft tissue injuries but I don't see why he couldn't return to beast mode.  There was no major injury and it's not unheard of for a RB to have a good year when over the age of 30.  

 

Doesn't he have a degenerative back condition? Pretty sure I heard that in one of the fantasy football podcasts out there. If not, I agree that there would be nothing to be worried about.

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4 minutes ago, Elwood333 said:

I'll look for that.

 

Yea, I've tried looking it up online but its hard to filter through all the other news surrounding him right now.

 

I know how they were talking about times when he wouldn't go into the locker room at halftime for fear of his back tightening up.

Edited by MJJ28
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Lynch suffered a sports hernia injury in week 10 and missed the rest of the season after undergoing surgery. Lynch pulled his hamstring in week 3 and had to leave the field. He missed the following week's action. ... The injury was the result of a recuring condition Lynch suffers from in his back.

 

http://sportsinjurypredictor.com/player/marshawn-lynch/7786

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6 minutes ago, Elwood333 said:

Lynch suffered a sports hernia injury in week 10 and missed the rest of the season after undergoing surgery. Lynch pulled his hamstring in week 3 and had to leave the field. He missed the following week's action. ... The injury was the result of a recuring condition Lynch suffers from in his back.

 

http://sportsinjurypredictor.com/player/marshawn-lynch/7786

 

That is what scares me most. There's just not much info about it out there either.

Edited by MJJ28
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1 minute ago, MJJ28 said:

 

That is what scares me most. There's just not much info about it out there, too.

Ok say Lynch does get hurt.  If the news out of training camp is legit then his clear handcuff is Dwayne Washington.  I don't think there is a lot of competition for him right now at the later stages of drafts.  Stash him on your bench as insurance.  Behind the Raiders O line his fresh legs at the end of the year and a Lynch injury could be a blessing in disguise.

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