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Andrew Miller 2017 Outlook


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His season last year, 10 W, 12 S, 1.45 ERA, 123 Ks, 14.89 K/9, 1.09 BB/9, put him 39th overall on the ESPN Player Rater. Absolutely unreal.

Even if you take the previous season's numbers, we're looking at a 2.00 ERA, 120 Ks, 14.5 K/9, 2 BB/9.

Of course, this comes with limited innings (~75) and a wide range of possible scenarios where he finished with between 5-10 Wins, and 5 saves plus. So the real question is where does a guy like this get drafted? I've got 12-14 aces, and Kenley, Aroldis, Britton. Is Andrew Miller the 15-17 pitcher off the board? 8th-9th rounder in 12 team league?

 

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I almost feel like you have to treat him as a starting pitcher for fantasy purposes, one with bad wins but upside for saves.

Think about how you evaluate Rich Hill types who will give you great stats over limited innings. Miller will give you even fewer innings, but better per inning numbers. I would use the same method to evaluate Miller as I would use for Hill (or Strasburg, for that matter), and then penalize him for likely lack of wins (don't expect another 10) and reward him for saves potential.

You also have to factor in that with Hill, a. There's a small chance he throws 180+ that isn't there with Miller, and b. When Hill gets hurt, you can put him on the DL, whereas Miller will have to be on your active roster all year

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Not out of the question Cody Allen loses the closer job this season due either injury or ineffectiveness.

Even if he does not, Miller has a lot of value as a middle reliever.

Only issue with me is if last year's postseason use has any effect on him.  He can be drafted late enough where the risk is worth the reward.

Edited by B&F
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7 minutes ago, B&F said:

Not out of the question Cody Allen loses the closer job this season due either injury or ineffectiveness.

Even if he does not, Miller has a lot of value as a middle reliever.

Only issue with me is if last year's postseason use has any effect on him.  He can be drafted late enough where the risk is worth the reward.

cody allen is very good and durable and i wouldnt draft miller hoping for 15-25 saves

 

allen's number

68+ inn each of last four years with a 11.5-12 k/9

four years sub 3 era

30+ saves each of last 2 season

Edited by colepenhagen
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6 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

cody allen is very good and durable and i wouldnt draft miller hoping for 15-25 saves

 

allen's number

68+ inn each of last four years with a 11.5-12 k/9

four years sub 3 era

30+ saves each of last 2 season

Agree that I don't think Allen is particularly likely to lose the job or get injured, but RP are so volatile there's a pretty good chance with any closer, even a solid, durable one like Allen.

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yea i just dont understand his adp compared to closer with high k and have lock for saves

 

hell melancon is ranked below miller (pretty sure adp has mm coming off before miller)

giles, kelvin, allen, all seem like much better options

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56 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

yea i just dont understand his adp compared to closer with high k and have lock for saves

 

hell melancon is ranked below miller (pretty sure adp has mm coming off before miller)

giles, kelvin, allen, all seem like much better options

I don't think you can really compare him to other relief pitchers very well. If I'm drafting Miller, it's for W/ERA/WHIP/K. Basically a low-inning starting pitcher, a la Hill or Urias. Saves upside is just gravy.

In short, I don't think you can quite compare Miller to other RP. While he plays the same real life position as closers do (unless you ask Randy Levine), fantasy wise he plays a different position than those other guys, as far as I'm concerned.

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2 minutes ago, XxxOilOverloadxxX said:

Looked soft against Dominican Republic

 

possible burnout from last year?

I don't think so. Didn't pitch a lot prior to the WBC, this is more like spring training for most pitchers, IMO.

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I've had shares of Miller the last 2 seasons. Personally...I start him alongside Betances and treat them as an elite individual pitcher. Elite weekly K's/Whip/Era. If either of them ends up eating Saves...Jackpot!

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35 minutes ago, mevins31 said:

Something is different. Something slight 

 

He said himself that he just wasn't locating properly. The time off is probably having an effect on him more than anything. I'm not worried unless we are talking about the same problems in May. Also he has had bad springs before. It's not new.

 

6 hours ago, mysonx3 said:

I don't think you can really compare him to other relief pitchers very well. If I'm drafting Miller, it's for W/ERA/WHIP/K. Basically a low-inning starting pitcher, a la Hill or Urias. Saves upside is just gravy.

 

I agree with this. If I'm drafting guys like Miller or Betances early, I'm not looking for saves, I'm looking for amazing ERA, WHiP, and tons of Ks. This is something they do better than most closers.

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What really boosted his overall value last season were the 10 wins and 12 saves. Reminds me of when Clippard had 11 wins with the Nationals. He didn't even have the ratios that Miller had but was one of the top relievers that season in fantasy. 

 

 

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I really like the idea of getting Miller and Betances and utilizing their elite K's and ratios. I'm not even concerned about what they provide in wins/saves and consider those gravy. I'd be happy with 5 wins and 5 saves from Miller, which I think is very realistic, and gladly benefit from his other stats that I find more valuable. They should both pitch 75ish innings and strike out 100+ batters with ratios similar to Kershaw. That gives you a dynamic duo that gets 150ish innings with 200K's and a sub 3 era and sub 1 whip.

 

I doubt Miller gets used in 2+ inning scenarios as much as he was used in the postseason but I'm certain he is the best pitcher on that team and will be used in many situations from the 5th inning on. He'll get the chance to save some games as well when Allen goes back to back. I do however feel that people should not be drafting Miller because they think he winds up the closer. The only way, in my mind, that happens, is if Allen just completely sucks or gets hurt. The likelihood of the former is very low if you ask me since he's been one of the better closers in the game over the last few years. The likelihood of the latter is no different than any other player in the game so I don't concern myself with that too much.

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1 hour ago, BostonCajun said:

I really like the idea of getting Miller and Betances and utilizing their elite K's and ratios. I'm not even concerned about what they provide in wins/saves and consider those gravy. I'd be happy with 5 wins and 5 saves from Miller, which I think is very realistic, and gladly benefit from his other stats that I find more valuable. They should both pitch 75ish innings and strike out 100+ batters with ratios similar to Kershaw. That gives you a dynamic duo that gets 150ish innings with 200K's and a sub 3 era and sub 1 whip.

 

I doubt Miller gets used in 2+ inning scenarios as much as he was used in the postseason but I'm certain he is the best pitcher on that team and will be used in many situations from the 5th inning on. He'll get the chance to save some games as well when Allen goes back to back. I do however feel that people should not be drafting Miller because they think he winds up the closer. The only way, in my mind, that happens, is if Allen just completely sucks or gets hurt. The likelihood of the former is very low if you ask me since he's been one of the better closers in the game over the last few years. The likelihood of the latter is no different than any other player in the game so I don't concern myself with that too much.

 

They will also rack up some holds for those of us that have them as a category. Great relievers to have on your team. 

Edited by Fuzzy_Slippers
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A thought on Miller.  It sounds like most are kind of assuming the 10 wins were a bit fluke'ish last year.  If we're to assume the win total is more around 5 or 6, and we assume the save totals are roughly the same, we're left with great ratios, let's say a sub 2.00 ERA & sub 1.00 WHIP and probably 100-120 Ks.  Still, heck of a middle reliever, but, is that really THAT different than guys that might be available either much later in the draft, or even in free agency throughout the year?

 

Last year, I was able to get Seung Hwan Oh (prior to being promoted to CL), Hector Nerris, Brad Hand & Kyle Barraclough type guys out of FA at various times throughout the year.

 

Now, Miller is probably going to have an ERA a full point lower than those guys and a WHIP maybe a half a point better as well.  But, we're talking about 75-85 innings here.  a 1.00 ERA difference over 75 innings is not as impactful as that same difference over 200 innings.

 

Obviously ,this opinion assumes standard settings and average league size, but I guess I'm just not seeing the value in investing close to a top 100 pick in a middle reliever, even one as elite as Miller.

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