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Andrew Miller 2017 Outlook


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1 hour ago, 89Topps said:

A thought on Miller.  It sounds like most are kind of assuming the 10 wins were a bit fluke'ish last year.  If we're to assume the win total is more around 5 or 6, and we assume the save totals are roughly the same, we're left with great ratios, let's say a sub 2.00 ERA & sub 1.00 WHIP and probably 100-120 Ks.  Still, heck of a middle reliever, but, is that really THAT different than guys that might be available either much later in the draft, or even in free agency throughout the year?

 

Last year, I was able to get Seung Hwan Oh (prior to being promoted to CL), Hector Nerris, Brad Hand & Kyle Barraclough type guys out of FA at various times throughout the year.

 

Now, Miller is probably going to have an ERA a full point lower than those guys and a WHIP maybe a half a point better as well.  But, we're talking about 75-85 innings here.  a 1.00 ERA difference over 75 innings is not as impactful as that same difference over 200 innings.

 

Obviously ,this opinion assumes standard settings and average league size, but I guess I'm just not seeing the value in investing close to a top 100 pick in a middle reliever, even one as elite as Miller.

There's less guess work and he's guaranteed the amount of innings as we all know. I like the fact that he'll be pitching in different spots throughout the game because I think it increases his chances of a W/Save mix actually making him more valuable than being a straight set up guy (obviously not more valuable than a closer).

 

I also disagree about the fact that the difference of innings doesn't matter. Far too often are the ratios determined by .01 and sometimes the difference between 3rd and 7th is .02. I'll take every advantage I can get in terms of ratios and batting average.

 

Signed,

Andrew Miller Owner.

Edited by Stein
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16 minutes ago, Stein said:

There's less guess work and he's guaranteed the amount of innings as we all know. I like the fact that he'll be pitching in different spots throughout the game because I think it increases his chances of a W/Save mix actually making him more valuable than being a straight set up guy (obviously not more valuable than a closer).

 

I also disagree about the fact that the difference of innings doesn't matter. Far too often are the ratios determined by .01 and sometimes the difference between 3rd and 7th is .02. I'll take every advantage I can get in terms of ratios and batting average.

 

Signed,

Andrew Miller Owner.

 

I didn't say the difference in ERA doesn't matter.  I'm saying a 1.00 ERA difference over 75 innings is less impactful than that same difference among SPs that both have 200+ innings.

 

And I get that he's consistent, but I can also consistently find very good MRs out of the average free agent pool.

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12 minutes ago, 89Topps said:

 

I didn't say the difference in ERA doesn't matter.  I'm saying a 1.00 ERA difference over 75 innings is less impactful than that same difference among SPs that both have 200+ innings.

 

And I get that he's consistent, but I can also consistently find very good MRs out of the average free agent pool.

I misspoke - not that you said it doesn't matter but my point being any and all advantages in ratios matter.

 

I think this goes to drafting styles and team construction - a lot of individuals are electing to go bat heavy in the earlier rounds and guys like Miller and Betances give the extra advantage to your ratios (w/ more innings than the guys you mentioned). These guys can supplement your presumably more risky pitchers (Archer/Carrasco/Price) because you elected to take the bat over Scherzer, MadBum, Thor (which I recommend taking the bat).

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8 minutes ago, Stein said:

I misspoke - not that you said it doesn't matter but my point being any and all advantages in ratios matter.

 

I think this goes to drafting styles and team construction - a lot of individuals are electing to go bat heavy in the earlier rounds and guys like Miller and Betances give the extra advantage to your ratios (w/ more innings than the guys you mentioned). These guys can supplement your presumably more risky pitchers (Archer/Carrasco/Price) because you elected to take the bat over Scherzer, MadBum, Thor (which I recommend taking the bat).

 

Miller & Betances didn't pitch more innings than the guys I mentioned, save for Barraclough, and even that difference was negligible. 

 

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13 minutes ago, 89Topps said:

 

Miller & Betances didn't pitch more innings than the guys I mentioned, save for Barraclough, and even that difference was negligible. 

 

If you're looking at a one year sample size - sure. 

 

Brach is the only guy putting up the innings as Miller and Betances the last 3 years - and his ratios weren't serviceable in fantasy. Barraclough made a 50 inning jump from 15 to 16, and Neris increased his workload by double. Last year was Oh's first year in the MLB.

 

There's a difference between knowing you're getting an elite ratio/k:ip guy and then looking for one through the year. A miss on a middle reliever can have the same effect on your ratios as a miss on a streamer SP.

 

By all means, if you can find these guys then more power to you.

 

Reliability, consistency, and risk reduction. Aside from upside - it's everything you want in fantasy.

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5 minutes ago, Stein said:

If you're looking at a one year sample size - sure. 

 

Brach is the only guy putting up the innings as Miller and Betances the last 3 years - and his ratios weren't serviceable in fantasy. Barraclough made a 50 inning jump from 15 to 16, and Neris increased his workload by double. Last year was Oh's first year in the MLB.

 

There's a difference between knowing you're getting an elite ratio/k:ip guy and then looking for one through the year. A miss on a middle reliever can have the same effect on your ratios as a miss on a streamer SP.

 

By all means, if you can find these guys then more power to you.

 

Reliability, consistency, and risk reduction. Aside from upside - it's everything you want in fantasy.

 

Well, first, I listed Brad Hand, not Brad Brach.  But, since you mention him, his 2.05 ERA & 1.04 WHIP are absolutely fantasy relevant.

 

And my point is that there are always Brad Brachs, Brad Hands & Kyle Barracloughs available.  It doesn't specifically have to be those guys.

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22 minutes ago, 89Topps said:

 

Well, first, I listed Brad Hand, not Brad Brach.  But, since you mention him, his 2.05 ERA & 1.04 WHIP are absolutely fantasy relevant.

 

And my point is that there are always Brad Brachs, Brad Hands & Kyle Barracloughs available.  It doesn't specifically have to be those guys.

I was simply trying to make the point that Miller and Betances have the track record making them reliable options if you're going to roster these types of players making them a valuable pick if you construct your roster in the way that enhances their worth.

 

My point with Brach was that during the last 3 years (again pointing out track record of Miller and Betances - reliability, consistency, and risk reduction) was that his ratios were not serviceable aside from last year. All guys you mentioned were only good last year aside from Brad Hand, whom I did mistake for Brach. You can find these types of guys every year but without their track record - how comfortable are you with rostering and relying on them?

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7 minutes ago, Stein said:

I was simply trying to make the point that Miller and Betances have the track record making them reliable options if you're going to roster these types of players making them a valuable pick if you construct your roster in the way that enhances their worth.

 

My point with Brach was that during the last 3 years (again pointing out track record of Miller and Betances - reliability, consistency, and risk reduction) was that his ratios were not serviceable aside from last year. All guys you mentioned were only good last year aside from Brad Hand, whom I did mistake for Brach. You can find these types of guys every year but without their track record - how comfortable are you with rostering and relying on them?

 

Well, given how relatively interchangeable they are, I'm perfectly comfortable with them.  I'm not investing months of ownership into them if they're not productive.  We're talking about guys out of free agency here, not a Dallas Keuchel that you invest a premium pick on and pretty much have to roster hoping he turns it around.

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32 minutes ago, MJDrocks said:

Andrew Miller, the ratio savant.  Thank you for being you.  One of the most underrated players to have in a Holds league.

 

 

Hard to be considered underrated if many call him the best reliever in the league

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4 hours ago, MJDrocks said:

Andrew Miller, the ratio savant.  Thank you for being you.  One of the most underrated players to have in a Holds league.

 

I have him in a non-holds league that has an innings cap, and I agree he's underrated. We all know how good he is, but I don't think we really appreciate how good he is for traditional 5x5 roto leagues, especially those with innings caps. 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, tcorb22 said:

Got roughed up in the 8th one night and then pitches the 9th and gets a save? Any chance this guy takes over the closer role?

Apparently Cody Allen suggested that Miller close for a while.  Should be temporary.

 

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47 minutes ago, crazybob60 said:

Looks like he will be going on a rehab outing on Wednesday and hopefully be back to the Tribe shortly thereafter...hoping...

 

http://www.cleveland.com/tribe/index.ssf/2017/08/cleveland_indians_adam_miller_2.html

 

does anyone think he's getting closer job back?

 

someone dumped him in my league because they needed DL space for Contreras

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Will now be shut down completely for 5-7 days before even starting a throwing program. With only 1 more week before playoffs, are people holding or dropping? In a holds league with DL spots already filled, I'm leaning on dropping.

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